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Sunday, 6 July 2025 - ETH/USDT.P ShortTrading Journal Entry: ETH/USDT SHORT Date of Entry: July 7, 2025 Asset: ETH/USDT Perpetual Futures Position: SHORT Entry Price: $2,580.00 Stop Loss: $2,615.00 Take Profit: $2,510.00 Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.00:1 Setup Grade: A+ 1. Core Thesis The trade is a high-confluence short position designed to capitalize on a probable liquidity hunt below an obvious daily support level. The core thesis is that the market is incentivized to purge over-leveraged longs, whose positions are revealed by order flow data, within the context of a clear daily downtrend. 2. High-Timeframe Context (The Strategic Landscape) My analysis began with a top-down approach to understand the broader market environment. Weekly Context: The market is in a large-scale consolidation range. This tells us that expecting a massive, sustained trend breakout is a lower probability. Instead, trading between major support and resistance zones is the governing dynamic. Daily Context: The immediate trend on the daily chart is bearish. Price had established a series of lower highs and lower lows, bringing it down to a major area of historical support and the Volume Profile Point of Control (POC) around the ~$2,550 zone. This created the central conflict: a bearish trend meeting a significant support level. A naive analysis would be to buy this support. 3. Order Flow & Sentiment Analysis (The Deciding Factor) This layer of analysis was the key to resolving the trend vs. support conflict and formed the backbone of my bearish bias. Liquidation Analysis: The liquidation maps revealed a very large and proximate pool of long liquidations clustered between $2,470 and $2,500. This liquidity acts as a powerful magnet for price, as market makers are incentivized to push price toward these zones to absorb orders. Funding Rate Analysis: Funding rates across almost all exchanges were consistently positive. This provided clear evidence that derivative traders were predominantly positioned long, were paying a premium to maintain those longs, and were betting on the daily support holding. This identified a crowded trade. Synthesis: The presence of a large downside liquidity target (the "magnet") combined with a vulnerable and crowded group of participants (the "fuel") created a high-probability scenario for a contrarian move. The path of least resistance was for the market to push through the "obvious" support to liquidate these longs. 4. Tactical Execution (The Entry Trigger) With a firm directional bias, the final step was to find a low-risk entry. 4-Hour Structure: The price action at the daily support level was weak. The 4H chart showed a low-volume, sideways consolidation, not a strong bullish rejection. This lack of a decisive bounce was my first clue that the support was fragile. 1-Hour Entry Pattern: I identified the perfect entry trigger by observing the 1H chart. Price staged a minor rally toward the $2,580 resistance level. Crucially, this rally occurred on visibly declining volume, signaling a lack of genuine buying interest. It was a corrective, not an impulsive, move. My entry at $2,580 was placed at a clear support-turned-resistance flip zone, allowing us to short into weakness at a favorable price. 5. Risk Management (The Trade's Foundation) Stop Loss ($2,615): The SL was not an arbitrary price but a logical invalidation point. It was placed just above a recent 1H structural swing high. A move above this level would have proven the "weak rally" thesis incorrect and signaled that buyers had taken control. Take Profit ($2,510): The TP was chosen for two reasons: Rule Compliance: It mathematically secured my required 2:1 risk/reward ratio. Strategic Placement: It sits just ahead of the psychological $2,500 level and the densest part of the liquidation pool, increasing the probability of a fill before any potential support-driven bounce. This trade represents a textbook example of my strategy: using high-timeframe analysis to build a directional bias, confirming it with order flow and liquidity data, and executing with precision on a low-timeframe pattern, all while adhering to strict risk management rules.
Short
by Wibono
ETHUSDT Swing Trade AnalysisEth still struggling to break weekly bearish fvg, rather it's bullish or bearish, it must revisit the orange line which is daily bearish fvg, if it taps this and drops then a good sign , if it doesn't tap this and drops then it's a bad sign for eth, 3rd scenario is if we get any 4hr closing above the green line then I will not take the short and close short on the entry price, then I will short from the 3k area till 2.8k for scalp, if eth rejects from orange line 2583 then I will hold the trade till tp2. short only from the mention zone, if it doesn't tap the bearish fvg i will share another short trade with extended tps. remember that that yellow zone is important eth must retest it or break it to be bullish, without tapping this and drops then it's not a good sign for eth.
Short
by mejazkhanm
ETH vs 200MA: Another TestETH on the daily has been pushed back so many times by the 200MA. Will price conquer it this time? I guess we’ll just have to wait and see. Today is Friday, July 4th, so probably a long weekend for most traders. Somehow, price got pushed back again. Just a hunch, but I believe long traders are touching grass this weekend while sellers are grinding. Anyway, we now have a support zone under price, made up of the 200MA and the 0.5 Fib — which, in theory, should hold against any attempts to push the price lower this weekend. Always take profits and manage risk. Interaction is welcome.
Long
by vagada
80% win rate strategy with TiqGPTul 3, 2025 7:59 AM 1h1h Chart 15m15m Chart 5m5m Chart 1m1m Chart Buy Opportunity Bullish Setup Buy: ** Buy limit order at $109,340.36 following a retest of the consolidation zone confirming continued buying interest. Entry: $109,340.36 Strategies: Multi-timeframe bullish order flow analysis, liquidity targeting above current levels. Confidence: Medium Risk/Reward: Calculated as follows: Timeframe: The 1-hour chart shows a strong bullish impulse followed by a consolidation phase, indicating a potential accumulation by institutions. The price is currently testing a minor consolidation zone around $109,340, which could act as a temporary resistance. Disclaimer: The information provided by this app is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions. TiqGPT is not a licensed financial advisor. Mark as Successful Mark as Failed T Jul 3, 2025 8:00 AM MARKET NARRATIVE: 1H Timeframe: The 1-hour chart shows a strong bullish impulse followed by a consolidation phase, indicating a potential accumulation by institutions. The price is currently testing a minor consolidation zone around $109,340, which could act as a temporary resistance. 15M Timeframe: The 15-minute chart reveals more granularity within the bullish structure, showing a series of higher lows and higher highs. This is indicative of continued buying interest and a lack of significant selling pressure at these levels. 5M Timeframe: On the 5-minute chart, the bullish momentum is more pronounced with a clear impulsive move upwards. The recent pullbacks are shallow, suggesting that the market is not ready to reverse but rather is gathering strength for further upward movement. 1M Timeframe: The 1-minute chart provides a detailed view of the buying pressure. The price action is making higher highs and higher lows, confirming the bullish sentiment observed in higher timeframes. INSTITUTIONAL THESIS: Institutions appear to be in an accumulation phase, likely targeting higher liquidity zones above the current price level. The consistent higher highs and higher lows across timeframes suggest a coordinated effort to push prices upward, possibly aiming for a significant liquidity pool above the $110,000 mark. LEARNING POINT: "Multi-timeframe confluence of bullish order flow and shallow pullbacks indicating strong buying interest." SIGNAL: BUY SYMBOL: BTC/USDT ENTRY PRICE: $109,340.36 STOP LOSS: $109,000.00 (just below the recent minor consolidation zone on the 1H chart) TARGET PRICE: $110,000.00 (next psychological and liquidity-rich level) CONDITION: Buy limit order at $109,340.36 following a retest of the consolidation zone confirming continued buying interest. RATIONALE: The trade is based on the alignment of bullish signals across multiple timeframes, shallow pullbacks indicating strong buying interest, and the targeting of higher liquidity zones. STRATEGIES USED: Multi-timeframe bullish order flow analysis, liquidity targeting above current levels. URGENCY: MEDIUM TIMEFRAME: Short-term CONFIDENCE SCORE: 85% RISK/REWARD RATIO: Calculated as follows: Risk: $109,340.36 - $109,000.00 = $340.36 Reward: $110,000.00 - $109,340.36 = $659.64 Ratio: $659.64 / $340.36 ≈ 1.94:1 FINAL RECOMMENDATION: WAIT - Although the bullish setup is strong, the risk/reward ratio of approximately 1.94:1 does not meet the minimum requirement of 2:1. It is advisable to wait for a better entry point that offers a higher potential reward relative to the risk or for the market to provide a deeper pullback to improve the risk/reward ratio. Jul 3, 2025 8:01 AM 1h1h Chart 15m15m Chart 5m5m Chart 1m1m Chart Hold - Waiting for Setup Wait for Confirmation Wait: Immediate market order based on current momentum. Entry: $155.85 Stop Loss: $152.00 Target: $160.00 Strategies: Multi-timeframe BOS confirmation, Institutional Accumulation Phase Confidence: 90% Risk/Reward: Risk=$3.85, Reward=$4.15, Ratio=1:1.1 (Below 2:1 minimum) Timeframe: Short-term Disclaimer: The information provided by this app is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions. TiqGPT is not a licensed financial advisor. Mark as Successful Mark as Failed T Jul 3, 2025 8:01 AM MARKET NARRATIVE: The analysis across the four timeframes (1h, 15m, 5m, 1m) for SOL/USDT shows a consistent upward trend with a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating a strong bullish momentum. The price action on the 1-hour chart shows a clear break of structure (BOS) above previous highs around $152, suggesting institutional buying pressure. This BOS is confirmed across the 15-minute and 5-minute charts, where we see continued bullish candles without significant retracement, indicating a lack of selling interest and potential accumulation by institutions. The 1-minute chart provides a more granular view of the buying pressure, showing tight consolidations followed by upward thrusts, typical of institutional demand in lower timeframes. INSTITUTIONAL THESIS: Institutions appear to be in an accumulation phase, targeting higher prices. The consistent demand and absence of deep pullbacks suggest a strategy to absorb sell orders and push prices higher, likely aiming for liquidity above recent highs. LEARNING POINT: The observed price action across multiple timeframes demonstrates a classic accumulation phase with a strong bullish momentum, indicating that institutions are supporting the upward move. SIGNAL: WAIT SYMBOL: SOL/USDT ENTRY PRICE: $155.85 STOP LOSS: $152.00 (just below the recent structural break) TARGET PRICE: $160.00 (next psychological round number and potential liquidity area) CONDITION: Immediate market order based on current momentum. RATIONALE: Calculated risk/reward ratio of 1:1.1 (Risk=$3.85, Reward=$4.15) does not meet minimum 2:1 requirement. Waiting for better institutional setup with improved risk parameters. STRATEGIES USED: Multi-timeframe BOS confirmation, Institutional Accumulation Phase URGENCY: HIGH TIMEFRAME: Short-term CONFIDENCE SCORE: 90% (based on strong bullish signals across all observed timeframes) RISK/REWARD RATIO: Risk=$3.85, Reward=$4.15, Ratio=1:1.1 (Below 2:1 minimum) RISK/REWARD CALCULATION: Risk = Entry Price - Stop Loss = $155.85 - $152.00 = $3.85 Reward = Target Price - Entry Price = $160.00 - $155.85 = $4.15 Ratio = Reward ÷ Risk = $4.15 ÷ $3.85 ≈ 1.08 Given that the calculated risk/reward ratio is less than 2:1, the recommendation is to WAIT for a better entry point or a more favorable risk/reward setup. The current market conditions are bullish, but the trade does not meet the strict institutional criteria for a minimum 2:1 risk/reward ratio. Jul 3, 2025 8:04 AM 1h1h Chart 15m15m Chart 5m5m Chart 1m1m Chart Buy Opportunity Bullish Setup Buy: Buy limit order at current market price with confirmation of continued buying pressure and no break of recent higher lows. Entry: $2586.00 Stop Loss: $2570.00 Target: $2620.00 Confidence: 85% Risk/Reward: Risk=$16.00, Reward=$34.00, Ratio=1:2.1 Timeframe: Short-term Disclaimer: The information provided by this app is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions. TiqGPT is not a licensed financial advisor. Mark as Successful Mark as Failed T Jul 3, 2025 8:04 AM MARKET NARRATIVE: Analyzing the ETHUSD pair across multiple timeframes (1H, 15M, 5M, 1M), we observe a consistent pattern of upward momentum followed by consolidation, suggesting a phase of accumulation and potential preparation for a further upward move. The 1H chart shows a strong impulsive move followed by a tight consolidation, indicating strong buying interest and limited selling pressure. The 15M and 5M charts display similar characteristics with price making higher lows, a sign of sustained buying pressure. The 1M chart, while more granular, shows some pullback, which could be interpreted as a liquidity hunt within a bullish structure. INSTITUTIONAL THESIS: Institutions appear to be in an accumulation phase, using smaller timeframes to engineer liquidity sweeps (collecting stop losses below minor swing lows) before potentially driving the price higher. The consistent higher lows across timeframes support this thesis, suggesting an underlying strength in buying pressure. LEARNING POINT: The current setup exemplifies "Institutional Accumulation with Liquidity Sweeps" where smart money uses minor pullbacks to gather more positions favorably, anticipating a continuation of the trend. SIGNAL: BUY SYMBOL: ETHUSD ENTRY PRICE: $2586.00 STOP LOSS: $2570.00 TARGET PRICE: $2620.00 CONDITION: Buy limit order at current market price with confirmation of continued buying pressure and no break of recent higher lows. RATIONALE: Market Structure: Higher lows on 15M and 5M charts indicate sustained buying interest. Order Flow: Accumulation evident from tight consolidations and quick recoveries from dips. Liquidity: Recent pullbacks likely served as liquidity hunts, setting the stage for a potential upward continuation. Strategies Used: Multi-timeframe analysis confirms institutional buying pressure and accumulation phase.
Long
by Mistermoriarty
ETH 50MA Reclaims 0.5 FibInteresting take on ETH daily using just the 50MA and Fib levels. Notice how the 50MA has interacted with the Fib levels since June 2021. In May 2025, the 50MA crossed below the 0.618 Fib level, marking the bottom of the December 2024 drop. The 0.5 Fib acted as support in October 2024 during the double top formation at the 0.236 Fib. Now, the 50MA has crossed back above the 0.5 Fib. As long as price holds above this 0.5 Fib level, the odds of further upside remain stronger. Always take profits and manage risk. Interaction is welcome.
Long
by vagada
ETH | H12 Supply Rejection & Demand Bounce PlanSELL ZONE $2,520–2,560 → Short from supply, rejection expected Triple tap + SFP = short trigger ↓ EQ LOWS $2,380–2,400 → TP1 / watch for bounce ↓ BUY ZONE $2,280–2,320 → Main long zone, enter on confirmation (bullish candle/SFP) STOP below $2,250 = cancel idea ↑ TP1 $2,500 TP2 $2,900–3,000 (if strong bounce) Main scenario — short from supply zone, target demand at $2,280–2,320. Long only if bounce is strong. Stop below $2,250. No confirmation — no trade.
Short
by Goldfinch_song
Technical Analysis of the Financial Chart 1. Main Trend The overall trend for the ETH/USDT chart (30-minute timeframe) appears bullish, confirmed by the recent breakout above the $2,480 resistance level and price maintaining above the moving averages (MA 50 and MA 200). The latest upward momentum pushed the price to around $2,510, but the current candlestick seems to be consolidating at this level. 2. Key Levels Resistance: $2,543 (next critical level). Support: $2,480 (previous resistance, now acting as a key support zone). $2,461 (aligned with the MA 50 and prior consolidation). Breakout: A breakout above $2,480 has occurred. The bullish trend is likely to continue as long as the price remains above this level. 3. Technical Indicators RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently around 63, indicating positive momentum but not yet overbought (70+), suggesting more upside potential. MACD: Both the MACD and Signal lines are above 0 with a recent bullish crossover. However, the lines are converging, pointing to potential consolidation. Moving Averages (MA 50 & MA 200): The price is trading well above both moving averages, reinforcing the bullish outlook. 4. Risk/Opportunity Entry Point: Long above $2,505 (continuation of the bullish trend). Stop-loss: $2,470 (below the breakout level and MA 50 to reduce risk). Take-profit: Level 1: $2,543 (first visible resistance). Level 2: $2,570 (potential extension of the trend). Confidence Level: High (given the strong breakout and supporting technical indicators). Recommendation Trading Setup: Asset: ETH/USDT Direction: Long Entry: $2,505 Stop-loss: $2,470 Take-profit: Level 1: $2,543 Level 2: $2,570 Confidence: High Additional Notes: Monitor volatility and volume: A drop in volume may signal weakening momentum. Bollinger Bands indicate possible tightening after the breakout, suggesting consolidation. 🏦 Conclusion: The current setup supports a bullish continuation strategy with a favorable risk/reward ratio.
Long
by CryptoAle992
ETH - Intergalactic, Planetary, Intergalactic, PlanetarySun Lines (Gold Fences): These vertical yellow posts mark the high-noon moments when Solar power kicks off major stampedes. Note how the late-2021 Sun line lit the fuse for ETH’s first big buck, and the spring 2024 fence set the stage for that gallop up to nearly $4,800. Earth-Mars Synodic Ropes (Blue Lassos): These sweeping blue arcs show us when Earth and Mars line up in the sky—and in price rhythm. Each blue lasso tends to corral momentum, either roping in a rally or reining in a sell-off. Early 2023’s synodic rope kept bears at bay, while the latest loop around June 2025 hints at a pick-me-up near $2,400. Mars Heliocentric Rails (Red Corral Bars): The red lines are Mars’s own heliocentric fences—tough support and resistance levels that often drive price back toward the barn. When ETH bucked above a Mars line in mid-2022, it stalled for months; when it fell through a red rail in early 2025, it trailed off toward $1,500. Trail Ahead: We’ve just passed another Sun post and are nearing a Mars corral bar around $2,200–2,300. If the blue synodic rope holds, expect a gentle trot back up toward $2,800; if ol’ Mars drags us off-trail, we might be bucked back toward $1,600. Keep your eyes on those planetary fences—the next cosmic roundup’s comin’ soon! BYBIT:ETHUSDT.P
by cowboycharts