Time to buy euros for the upcoming week(s)?! EURCOPLooking at the daily divergence, we can probably see a weak Colombian peso against the main currencies, especially the euro.
EURCOP trade ideas
Mixed Technique: Bring back strong peso and old school reggaetonWelcome to the series where I play with both technical and fundamental aspects of the market. Leave your suggestions if you want me to cover a specific asset.
Technical story:
As everyone but Maluma noticed, FX_IDC:EURCOP is really close to marking all time... close, but breaking high may come too.
The correlation with emerging markets ( AMEX:VWO ), although broken in 2017 and for the most of 2018, seems to be making a return. It is hard to judge it because the market sell-off usually unites different asset sub-classes better than Santos uniting people of Colombia (no disrespect, calm yourself down). USDCOP broke out of the long-term wedge and seems to be heading higher. We have two main resistance lines to watch now: 3710 and 3910; and two main support lines: 3610 and 3555. For now the EURCOP seems to be making new 52-week high, it may suggest further upward moves. Neither of used indicators is suggesting the end of the rally. VWO coming down would definitely trigger the risk-on mode and bid the COP. If we face a bear market, the COP will definitely not be used as a safe haven.
Fundamental story:
Fundamentals look a little bit better for Colombia. I prepared a couple of charts for you:
GDP seems to be improving, inflation is kept low, debt to GDP is falling. Most of fundamentals suggest there is nothing as bad in Colombia as there was in 2016. Currency is however howering around levels from 2016. I presume it is falling down with the rest of emerging currencies, suggesting risk-off mode.
fred.stlouisfed.org - interest rate differential with USD suggests COP should be way lower. I KNOW IT IS USD, don't cry please. We can see however that heading to 2016 the currency was crushed. This was back when the economy was not doing so good and GDP dropped. Look like worries came back, but they are not to be seen for now.
fred.stlouisfed.org - Real Broad effective exchange rate (RBEER) rallied a lot during this year and the yoy change seems to be too high as for interest rate differential (IRD, used TVC:DE10Y as a proxy for Euro long term interest rate). In the years 2005, 2007, 2010, when it happened, the yoy change in RBEER caught up eventually within 1-2 years. Beware the IRD yoy change is already below zero for more than a year.
fred.stlouisfed.org - my favourite chart. Real interest rate differential vs EURCOP. The currency pair seems to have rallied a bit too much in 2016 and 2017 and we can expect a comeback to the range 3200-3000. Other option is that Colombian yields would have to rally suggesting weakness in Colombia's credibility or economy
d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net - Manufacturing PMI is above 50 and suggests a healthy economy
In the first half of 2018 it looked like the FX_IDC:EURCOP was trying to break lower but I believe the current market situation kicked it higher
Conclusions:
Technicals are undecided yet. We are at a cross-road. In my opinion it is flipping a bird at COP bulls and may strengthen EUR against our reggeaton peso. Fundamentals of Colombia are strong and even interest rate differential sugest that the currency should appreciate against the euro. I believe it is a short-term bearish, long-term bullish situation for COP.
Short 3Short 3.
Triangulo descendente.
Se cree que la tendencia bajista
continuara pues los compradores
parecieran debilitarse
