Japonese will Growth Hello. Fine ? me yes.
The dollars empire is over. Time for others currencies to go up.
Japonese Yen will go up.
Consolidation and accumulation at bottom.
Long when red line is break. Good luck.
FCUYQ2026 trade ideas
Downtrend Confirmed Is the Yen About to Weaken Further?Hey Traders so today here is way to trade a downtrending market. See the Yen I have been able to connect 3 Bar trendline projecting it lower. But as you can see it has now pulled back to the trendline this is normally the best place to sell beacause momentum is on your side. Not only that but it also closed below the 50% retracement level which is also a strong bearish sign.
So if your going to think about selling YEN this is a good place.
However if your going to be bullish yen wait until a close about resistance.
Always use Risk Management!
Hope This Helps Your Trading
Clifford
Yen tells a different storyDespite the poor data that came out of Japan, the price action has been telling a different narrative. I'm going to pay attention on this asset until it has reached towards the Weekly objective. I'd like to see the price purge the obvious swing high as noted and fails to push higher to confirm my bias. Fundamentally all the data is supporting for the Yen to have a bearish outlook, but until it happens I'll wait for further confirmation.
How to Trend the Trend for Beginners part 3 Hey Traders so today we are going to the final part of the series for beginners about how to trade trends using techincal analysis.
So today we will go over what I believe is the best way to confirm that the market is trending using the best method.
Enjoy!
Clifford
The Yen’s Comeback Starts Here—and it Seems the COT Knew First1. Introduction: A Market Everyone Gave Up On
For a while, the Japanese Yen looked like a lost cause. After topping out in early 2021, Yen futures (6J1!) began an unrelenting slide, shedding value week after week like an old coat in spring. Traders stopped asking, “Where’s support?” and started asking, “How low can it go?”
The macro backdrop didn’t help. The Bank of Japan clung to ultra-loose monetary policy, even as the Fed hiked aggressively. Speculators piled on shorts. The Yen was a one-way ticket down, and no one seemed interested in punching the brakes.
But beneath that apathy, a quieter shift was underway. While price kept bleeding, trader positioning began to hint at something different—something the chart didn’t show yet. And if you were watching the Commitments of Traders (COT) report closely enough, you might’ve seen it.
2. The COT Trend That No One Was Watching
The COT report isn’t glamorous. It’s slow, lagging by a few days, and rarely makes headlines. But for those who track what the big players are doing—those large enough to be required to report their positions—it’s a treasure trove of subtle clues.
One of those clues is Total Reportable Positions. This metric tells us how active large market participants really are—regardless of whether they’re long or short. When that number is dropping, it suggests the “big dogs” are losing interest. When it starts climbing again? Someone’s gearing up to play.
From 2021 through most of 2024, Total Reportable Positions in 6J were in a steady decline—mirroring the slow death of the Yen's bullish case. But in late 2024, something changed. Using a simple linear regression channel on this COT data, a clear breakout emerged. Positioning was picking up again—for the first time in nearly three years.
And it wasn’t just a bounce. It was a structural shift.
3. Did Price Listen?
Yes—and no. Price didn't immediately explode higher. But the structure began to change. The market stopped making new lows. Weekly closes began to cluster above support. And importantly, a Zig Zag analysis started marking a pattern of higher lows—the first signs of accumulation.
Here’s where the chart really gets interesting: the timing of the COT breakout coincided almost perfectly with a key UFO support at 0.0065425—a price level that also marked the bottom in COT Traders Total Reportable Longs. This adds a powerful layer of confirmation: institutional orders weren’t just showing up in the data—they were leaving footprints on the chart.
And above? There’s a UFO resistance level at 0.0075395. If the Yen continues to climb, that could be a significant price level where early longs may choose to lighten up.
4. The Contract Behind the Story
Before we go deeper, let’s talk about what you’re actually trading when you pull the trigger on Yen Futures.
The CME Japanese Yen futures (6J) contract represents 12.5 million Japanese Yen, and each tick move—just 0.0000005 per JPY—is worth $6.25. It’s precise, it’s liquid, and for traders who like to build macro positions or take advantage of carry flows, it’s a staple.
As of May 2025, margin requirements hover around ~$3,800 (Always double-check with your broker or clearing firm—these numbers shift from time to time.)
But maybe you’re not managing seven-figure accounts. Maybe you just want to test this setup with more flexibility. That’s where the Micro JPY/USD Futures (MJY) come in.
Contract size: 1/10th the size of 6J
Tick move: 0.000001 per JPY increment = $1.25
Same market structure, tighter margin requirement around ~$380 per contract
Important note: The COT report aggregates positioning across the whole futures market—it doesn’t separate out micro traders from full-size. So yes, the data still applies. And yes, it still matters.
5. Lessons from the Shift
This isn’t about hindsight bias. The value in this setup isn’t that the Yen happened to bounce—it’s how Total Reportable Positions broke trend before price did.
Here are the real takeaways:
COT data may or may not be predictive—but it is insightful. When positioning starts expanding after a long contraction, it often signals renewed interest or risk-taking. That’s tradable information.
Technical support and resistance as well as highs and lows give context. Without them, COT breakouts can feel theoretical. With them, you have real, observable UFO levels where institutions may act—and where you can plan.
6. Watchlist Insights: Where This Might Work Again
You don’t have to wait for another yen setup to apply this framework. The same structure can help you scout for early positioning shifts across the CME product universe.
Here’s a simple filter to start building your own COT watchlist:
✅ Look for markets where:
Price has been in a long, clean downtrend (or uptrend)
Total Reportable Positions are falling—but starting to reverse
A breakout occurs in positioning trend (draw a regression channel and watch for a clean violation)
A key support or resistance lines up with recent extremes in COT positioning
Whether it's crude oil, corn, or euro FX, this template gives you a framework for exploration.
🎯 Want to See More Setups Like This?
We’re just getting started. If this breakdown opened your eyes to new ways of using COT reports, UFO levels, and multi-dimensional trade setups, keep watching this space.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Weekly Forecasts UPDATES! ALL Markets Analyzed! Stocks & FOREXIn this Weekly Forecast UPDATE, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Gold and Metals futures, and the FOREX Majors for Thursday, May 8th.
The targets set in last weekend's forecasts are still in play! Trade accordingly.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Strengthen your trading strategy? How about a statistical entryFor those watching or trading the USD/JPY pair: the spread of 0.007–0.0072 on the Yen futures is still in play
We're 30 days out from expiry, and there are no clear reasons to brake a rally in the futures contract (which would mean a drop in USD/JPY).
Now, a quick word on Expected Range (ER) and its boundaries.
As we’ve seen, price didn’t quite reach the 2 ER level before bouncing back up. Quick note here — price doesn’t owe us anything. It doesn’t have to hit any statistically calculated levels just because we’re watching them.
But if it *had* reached that 2 ER boundary, it would’ve been a killer entry setup. Why? Because as a reminder, 2 ER marks about a 95% probability that price won’t break through — meaning a strong chance of a bounce.
P/S
For more detailed insights, don’t forget to check out our website and leverage the extensive original analysis from our team to enhance your trading performance! 💪💼
6JExpecting continuation to the downside for 6J. We still need to show bearishness below the 5 and 10emas to have confirmation here.
Has sellers set the tone?Although there was a positive close in the S&P 500 daily chart, sellers appeared at new highs. The broader structure is a neutral zone. This implies the possibility of a down day on Friday but not a large move lower. It will be very interesting to see how this market absorbs the Friday economic reports.
I've Cracked the BEARISH Code for Japanese Yen Using COTJapanese Yen is setup for sells based on COT positioning and other underlying fundamental conditions.
USDJPY / 6J1! - Compelling reversal pointThe Yen futures (inverted from USD.JPY) are entering a multi-year resistance level. Considering the yen has arrived at this zone on one-sided trading with high momentum, a reversal trade is compelling from a market psychology perspective. As an additional non-technical confluence, there are also news rumours circulating on social media streams regarding an imminent new trade agreement between the two countries.
If prices remain static for the next hour, the daily close will print a shooting star reversal candlestick pattern. Using a retracement entry at today's developing POC, which roughly aligns to the 0.382 intraday fib level, with a stop above the intraday (H1) swing high. A RR at opening of approximately 1:10 is available. Ideally, risk would be managed on H1 time frame for this type of trade.
Note USD.JPY Forex charting will be inverted from the futures.
Yen Outlook: Preparing for the Coming Week! During the recent short trading week, we did not observe significant changes in the portfolios of major players. No outflows or overbought conditions—this indicates that the targets remain unchanged, and we are getting closer to the 0.0072 mark. 📊
I recall how, back in mid-December of last year, we noticed the first signs of volume accumulation in the portfolio. It felt like discovering a new horizon! We shared this insight with our subscribers, allowing us to prepare a plan in advance and identify well-founded entry points for the rise of the yen futures. 🚀
Currently, as we maintain a long position on the futures (or a short on the dollar/yen pair), it is essential to keep in mind the boundaries of the expected volatility range.
We have marked these on the chart: the yellow rectangle for Monday and the red rectangle for the upcoming week. 📅
Given the sustained positive sentiment surrounding yen futures, opening a long position as the price approaches the lower boundary of the range could present an excellent opportunity . As indicated by the arrows on the screenshot, don’t miss your chance! 🎯
Summary, we see that the yen continues to be in focus, and we have a clear action plan. We are holding our long position, monitoring the range boundaries, and preparing for the opportunities the market presents. 🌈
No Valuable Data, No Edge!
6J1!: Yen Steady as Dollar Recovers: Reversal WatchThe Japanese Yen maintains its strength in relation to the recovering US Dollar. However, recent improvements in global risk sentiment are beginning to weaken the JPY's appeal as a safe-haven currency. At this point, the Yen is positioned within a significant supply zone, where we are closely monitoring for potential reversal opportunities.
According to the latest COT report, retailers are predominantly holding long positions, which adds an interesting dynamic to the current market environment. As we evaluate the situation, our focus is on the possibility of a reversal, especially as the US Dollar shows signs of regaining momentum. This scenario could lead to notable shifts in currency dynamics, and we are keen to see how these factors will unfold in the near term.
✅ Please share your thoughts about 6J1! in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
JPY Futures: Bulls vs. Bears at 0.00717 – Weekly Decision ZoneJapanese Yen Futures – Weekly Chart Analysis
The Japanese Yen has been climbing steadily after bouncing from a strong demand zone near 0.0062–0.0063, an area where buyers stepped in hard after months of selling. This bounce has created a solid uptrend, breaking previous highs and showing strong bullish momentum.
Right now, price is approaching a key resistance area where sellers took control in the past. This zone has already rejected price once, so we should be watching closely to see if it happens again.
Current Momentum showed us...........
-Strong buying from the demand zone
-Near break above recent highs
-Buyers in control short term
What to Watch Now is............
-Price is near a major supply zone (0.00717) this is where heavy selling occurred before, and sellers may show up again.
-If we see signs of rejection (like long wicks or a sharp drop), we might get a nice pullback
-f price breaks above 0.00717, that would be a strong bullish signal, possibly leading to more upside.
In short
-Short-term trend is Bullish
-Near-term risk possible reversal at resistance
-Trade idea is towait for price reaction at this key level. If rejection shows, short setups could form. If it breaks cleanly, bulls are still in control.
Quotes Dropping? Here’s How to Find Support & Gain Best DealHave you ever found yourself wondering how to make sense of fluctuating quotes?
What if I told you that the powerful key lies in understanding the power of expected range volatility?
Ready? Let me 5 min to introduce you how understanding expected range volatility can give you the edge you need to succeed.
The expected range volatility (ER) provides a framework for understanding how much the asset could move within a specific timeframe. Statistically, price movements within the expected volatility corridor have a 68% probability, based on CME market data and a Nobel Prize-winning calculation formula. This means that traders can rely on these insights as a powerful filter for making more precise entry points into trades.
Key insight: when the market is quiet, and we approach certain price levels, there’s a 68% chance that the price won’t break through those boundaries.
The ER formula is available on the CME exchange's website, and in just a few minutes, you can input the data to get incredible results. It’s truly amazing!
I remember the first time I stumbled upon the ER tool. It felt like finding a gold mine in the trading world! I was amazed that such a powerful resource was available for free, yet it remained unnoticed by 95% of traders.
At that moment, I began to explore the trading community and was shocked to see how underestimated this tool was. I couldn’t find a single author who utilized such valuable data in their analysis.
But once I began to focus on expected range volatility and the data provided by the CME, everything changed. Since that I never make intraday trades without ER data was checked.
Limitations:
• Market Dynamics: Short-term price movements can be unpredictable due to various factors like market sentiment, news, and economic events. The Expected Range provides a statistical estimate but does not guarantee outcomes.
• Assumptions: The formulas assume that price movements follow a log-normal distribution , which may not hold true in all market conditions.
So, what about you? Do you utilizing the power of expected range volatility in your trading strategy? Share your thoughts in the comments below! And if you want make deeper insights , don’t forget to subscribe us.
In the world of trading, knowledge is power.
No Valuable Data - No Edge!🚀💰
Trading A Divergence Trade (Breakdown) with Pivots and LiquidityTrading divergences was always a problem for me in the past. I did the same thing you did and got it wrong every time. I was trading divergences when i saw them instead of realizing a divergence is a flip of support and resistance levels. I just needed to know where they are.
In this video:
Internal vs External Pivot divergence confirmation:
You can have two types of pivots on your chart. One for long term and one for short term.
Using them to confirm short and long term price action is intuitive as youll be able to see the market squeezing on the short term while knowing where your long term price structure exists.
Price action to Divergence Confirmation:
A divergence on a short term pivot is an indication of short term loss of trend or reversal.
If the short term has no divergence but the long term does, you are about to end up with some pretty large price moves.
Youll be confirming the divergence by looking for highs, lows, and closes moving the wrong way from current price action.
This video will give you a method you can use to draw out your support zone / resistance zone / divergence zone and use them to your advantage.
The "Divergence Zone" that you draw out is the very reason why so many people fail at divergences.
Bare in mind that when you have a divergence, support and resistance are on the WRONG sides as their normally are so you'll learn here how to find those zones as well.
Then in the end of the video ill show you how to use lower timeframes to confirm the new move of the market.
Thanks, everyone. For coming through to the CoffeeShop.
6J Swing Short Trade idea based on supply and demand, intermarket analysis and cross market valuation. Following a structured approach with clear entry, risk management, and confluence factors.
Jpy index weekly scenario 04/04/2025English : According to our analysis, we anticipate a bullishscenario.
Morocan Darija : kanchofo d'apres l'analyse dyalna antsanaw tloo3
ATENTION : I only share my ideas, not signals.
6J Swing Short Trade idea based on supply and demand, intermarket analysis and cross market valuation. Following a structured approach with clear entry, risk management, and confluence factors.
Behind the Curtain: Macro Indicators That Move the Yen1. Introduction
Japanese Yen Futures (6J), traded on the CME, offer traders a window into one of the world’s most strategically important currencies. The yen is not just Japan’s currency—it’s also a barometer for global risk appetite, a funding vehicle for the carry trade, and a defensive asset when markets turn volatile.
But what truly moves Yen Futures?
While many traders fixate on central bank statements and geopolitical news, machine learning tells us that economic indicators quietly—but consistently—steer price action. In this article, we apply a Random Forest Regressor to reveal the top macroeconomic indicators driving 6J Futures across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes, helping traders of all styles align their strategies with the deeper economic current.
2. Understanding Yen Futures Contracts
Whether you’re trading institutional size or operating with a retail account, CME Group offers flexible exposure to the Japanese yen through two contracts:
o Standard Japanese Yen Futures (6J):
Contract Size: ¥12,500,000
Tick Size: 0.0000005 = $6.25 per tick
Use Case: Institutional hedging, macro speculation, rate differential trading
o Micro JPY/USD Futures (MJY):
Contract Size: ¥1,250,000
Tick Size: 0.000001 = $1.25 per tick
Use Case: Retail-sized access, position scaling, strategy testing
o Margin Requirements:
6J: Approx. $3,300 per contract
MJY: Approx. $330 per contract
Both products offer deep liquidity and near 24-hour access. Traders use them to express views on interest rate divergence, U.S.-Japan trade dynamics, and global macro shifts—all while adjusting risk through contract size.
3. Daily Timeframe: Top Macro Catalysts
Short-term movements in Yen Futures are heavily influenced by U.S. economic data and its impact on yield spreads and capital flow. Machine learning analysis ranks the following three as the most influential for daily returns:
10-Year Treasury Yield: The most sensitive indicator for the yen. Rising U.S. yields widen the U.S.-Japan rate gap, strengthening the dollar and weakening the yen. Drops in yields could create sharp yen rallies.
U.S. Trade Balance: A narrowing trade deficit can support the USD via improved capital flow outlook, pressuring the yen. A wider deficit may signal weakening demand for USD, providing potential support for yen futures.
Durable Goods Orders: A proxy for economic confidence and future investment. Strong orders suggest economic resilience, which tends to benefit the dollar. Weak numbers may point to a slowdown, prompting defensive yen buying.
4. Weekly Timeframe: Intermediate-Term Indicators
Swing traders and macro tacticians often ride trends formed by mid-cycle economic shifts. On a weekly basis, these indicators matter most:
Fed Funds Rate: As the foundation of U.S. interest rates, this policy tool steers the entire FX complex. Hawkish surprises can pressure yen futures; dovish turns could strengthen the yen as yield differentials narrow.
10-Year Treasury Yield (again): While impactful daily, the weekly trend gives traders a clearer view of long-term investor positioning and bond market sentiment. Sustained moves signal deeper macro shifts.
ISM Manufacturing Employment: This labor-market-linked metric reflects production demand. A drop often precedes softening economic growth, which may boost the yen as traders reduce exposure to riskier assets.
5. Monthly Timeframe: Structural Macro Forces
For position traders and macro investors, longer-term flows into the Japanese yen are shaped by broader inflationary trends, liquidity shifts, and housing demand. Machine learning surfaced the following as top monthly influences on Yen Futures:
PPI: Processed Foods and Feeds: A unique upstream inflation gauge. Rising producer prices—especially in essentials like food—can increase expectations for tightening, influencing global yield differentials. For the yen, which thrives when inflation is low, surging PPI may drive USD demand and weaken the yen.
M2 Money Supply: Reflects monetary liquidity. A sharp increase in M2 may spark inflation fears, sending interest rates—and the dollar—higher, pressuring the yen. Conversely, slower M2 growth can support the yen as global liquidity tightens.
Housing Starts: Serves as a growth thermometer. Robust housing data suggests strong domestic demand in the U.S., favoring the dollar over the yen. Weakness in this sector may support yen strength as traders rotate defensively.
6. Trade Style Alignment with Macro Data
Each indicator resonates differently depending on the trading style and timeframe:
Day Traders: React to real-time changes in 10-Year Yields, Durable Goods Orders, and Trade Balance. These traders seek to capitalize on intraday volatility around economic releases that impact yield spreads and risk appetite.
Swing Traders: Position around Fed Funds Rate changes, weekly shifts in Treasury yields, or deteriorating labor signals such as ISM Employment. Weekly data can establish trends that last multiple sessions, making it ideal for this style.
Position Traders: Monitor PPI, M2, and Housing Starts for broader macro shifts. These traders align their exposure with long-term shifts in capital flow and inflation expectations, often holding positions for weeks or more.
Whatever the style, syncing your trading plan with the data release calendar and macro backdrop can improve timing and conviction.
7. Risk Management
The Japanese yen is a globally respected safe-haven currency, and its volatility often spikes during geopolitical stress or liquidity events. Risk must be managed proactively, especially in leveraged futures products.
8. Conclusion
Japanese Yen Futures are a favorite among global macro traders because they reflect interest rate divergence, risk sentiment, and global liquidity flows. While headlines grab attention, data tells the real story.
Stay tuned for the next installment of the "Behind the Curtain" series, where we continue uncovering what really moves the futures markets.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
JPY Swing ShortTrade idea based on supply and demand, intermarket analysis, COT positioning and cross market valuation. Following a structured approach with clear entry, risk management, and confluence factors.
Short JPY Futures COT Commercial / Non commercial extreme.
Retail bullish extreme.
Weekly demand aligning with bonds weekly demand.
Overvalued vs the dollar.
