2024-11-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Most went sideways today and we got some marginally lower lows. That was decent enough to disappoint bulls who were used to BTFD for a long long time now. I do think some expansion of the current range is possible but I doubt we get a bigger breakout tomorrow due to US elections. Will the election effect the market big time? No idea but my guess is less than many expect. Can either side end the party for the 0.1% and make them sell their overvalued stonkz? Probably not but I am open to surprises. My guess is we will chop wildy back and forth, like today’s US open. Bears will likely get their second leg down, but it’s too soon.
dax xetra
comment: 50% pullback of the current range from Thursday’s low to Friday’s high is around 19260 and we closed 19260. Market is in balance at that price and I expect more sideways before we get another impulse down. To guess if we hit 19000 before 19350, is impossible and you should not trade based on those questions. Middle of the range is the worst place for trades, so wait.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18900 - 19400
bull case: My line in the sand for bulls continues to be 19400 and until they break that price, bears are in full control. For tomorrow I expect more buyers around 19000-19100 and I will continue to look for longs in that area, until it’s clearly broken.
Invalidation is below 19000.
bear case: Bears prevented bulls from printing 19400, which showed strength and bulls finally gave up around 2 p.m. cet where we broke below 19300. The selling was much weaker than Friday’s rally and already had 3 legs down. Maybe bears can push this down to 19000-19090 but I don’t think the odds are good to take that trade. Shorts above 19300 can work. Most important for now is to not get trapped into bad trades like shorting below 19200 or buying above 19350.
Invalidation is above 19400.
short term : Neutral. Market needs to move more sideways before we get another impulse, which will probably be down for a second leg. Will look for shorts above 19300.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Shorting 19350 since it was bigger resistance and market tried 3 times to get above and failed.
