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2025-05-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Historic rally we are witnessing. This move is as unlikely, climactic and overdone as can be. Yet we only move higher. Can’t short this yet. Bulls in full control, don’t fight it. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21000 - 24000 bull case: Bulls will likely go for 24000 over the next days. Since no bears are around, try to find any decent pullback to long until it stops working. I think bulls should keep this above the 1h 20ema or we might test down to the bigger trend line around 23000. Invalidation is below 23300. bear case: Bears need consecutive closes below the 1h 20ema. Simple as that. Then they can test the big bull trend line around 23000. Unless we get a huge news bomb bear surprise, this will most likely continue higher or at least the next bigger pullback gets bought. Bears are not making money at all, so don’t try to be the hero bear. Invalidation is above 23550. short term: Neutral. Will only long on a pullback to 15m or 1h 20ema and if market refuses to go down, as it did today with the 15m 20ema. I will become bearish below 23000 but only after market retested the highs and printed a credible top. A big bear news could change that but for now it’s unlikely. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is over. My rough guess for now is that we will stay inside this trading range 19000 - 24000 for much longer or until economic data becomes the shitshow I expect it to become over the next months. trade of the day: Buying near the 15m 20ema.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
#202518 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: No one knows if this will be a lower high or a new ath. It does not matter. Buying up here is bad no matter how you look at it. Sure it can be good for a scalp but any bull stop is far away. Until bears start closing gaps, bulls remain in full control. Make no mistake, this is one of those instances where economic reality and market is so far apart that you will look back in hindsight for not going bigger on the shorts once it turns. Can become easily the trade of the year. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 19000 - 24000 bull case: Another strong breakout by the bulls on Friday. We are in a clear third leg which could get us to 24000 or become a lower high, you never know in advance. Move is on low volume and climactic that once this turns, it will most likely be violent. There are no reasons for bulls to be up here except a short squeeze. So naturally I doubt we could go much above 24000 if we get there at all. Invalidation is below 21900. bear case: Bears still have nothing. No selling pressure what so ever, so path of least resistance is up. The first pullback will likely be bought but that depends on how deep it is and if we get one at all. Bears know this is as very tight and unsustainable bull channel up but that does not matter because market already made 22% from the lows. Which by itself is beyond insane. I do think bears need bad news to ignite the selling. We could easily stay another couple of weeks up here before it turns again. Invalidation is above 24100. short term: Neutral. Getting bullish after this parabolic buy climax is moronic but we are not seeing any selling pressure, so I will just sit on hands. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is over. My rough guess for now is that we will stay inside this trading range 19000 - 24000 for much longer or until economic data becomes the excrementshow I expect it to become over the next months
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-04-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Still favoring doing a lower high print but we are close enough to 23000 that market can go higher. No more obvious resistance. A big maybe is the bear gap up to 23050 but that’s a gamble I am not willing to take. Today should have marked the start of the reversal with the huge bear spike but the bull reversal was beyond my comprehension. Can turn bear only below 22300 but I don’t need to long this either. Will only look for shorts on this, that’s why it’s full bear mode from here on. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21000 - 24000 bull case: Bulls printed a higher April high and closed the month at the highs, which is a strong buy signal going into Friday and next week. The bull trend line from 19000 is valid until broken but the move up is so climactic and in a tight channel, that it’s tough to buy the highs but until bears trap late bulls and get follow-through after a sell spike, bulls are in BTFD mode and it continues to be profitable. Invalidation is below 21300. bear case: Bears don’t have much. Today could have been the final flag and we top out soon but we will only know once we drop below 22300 and continue down. For me this is a clear 3 legs up now and I have zero interest in buying up here. Big economies are most likely already in recessions and I think Q1 2025 will be the last decent quarter this year and from here on it’s downhill. Hard. Next big bucks will be made to the down side. Invalidation is above 23100. short term: Neutral. Could do 23000 or not. Today was end of month and I will wait and see what the us markets do tomorrow. Dax will be closed. Expecting a huge reversal any day now. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is ongoing but for now I still think 19500 and below is an amazing buy if you can hold for years. Things will have to turn really bad for this market to find acceptance below the bull trend line from the covid lows and right now this trade war is just front running. Markets were not priced for risk 3 weeks ago but this drop was too much too fast. My bearish targets for this year are met and with the current environment I will not call for lower prices than 19000. If the trade war turns real bad, yeah sure but for now it’s not. trade of the day: Selling 22700, decent double top and was good for 300 points down. Had to be mentally flexible and not try to hold short while market did a v-reversal. I fought it too much today.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
#202517 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: This is a short squeeze and very little could concinve me otherwise. Does it matter? No. We are going higher and until bears print a big bear bar again, bulls remain in full control. 8 Consecutive daily bull bars is always something special. Above 22700 there is no reason not to go for 24000. current market cycle: Trading range - bull trend on the 1h tf key levels: 21500 - 24000 bull case: Big breakout on Wednesday with follow-through. Bulls want to go above the start of the panic selling down at 22735ish. If they do, I doubt there will be much resistance until we print a new ath and even then the first pullback will likely be bought again. The volume is atrocious compared to the selling weeks but that is unimportant. Market is going higher, low volume or not. Stops are not dependent on volume. Below 21900 most bulls will likely think the squeeze is over and secure profits. Invalidation is below 21900. bear case: Bears last hope is that prior support turned resistance and we stay below 22700. How likely is that? Given that we have not seen a red daily close for 2 weeks, very very unlikely. What would change my mind? Daily big bear bar closing on it’s low below 21900. Nothing else. We have a clear bull trend line and until that is clearly broken, bulls remain in full control. I do think this is a gift to late bulls who did not sell yet. If I had long term longs, I’d thank the lord for a second opportunity to exit them. We will see lower lows below 19000 this year. Zero doubt. 22700 short term: Neutral. Bullish above 22700 for 24000 and bearish only below 21900 on very strong momentum. Bears have turned this bearish again only with a break of the bull trend line and gap close to 21400. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is over. We could still print a lower high below 23000 and go down to 19000 or lower but that would rather be a very shallow broad bear channel. Yes, it can be shallow due to marginally lower highs and lower lows but broad because the range is huge. Can we go much below 19000 this year? Only with a deep recession. We could already be in one but for now it’s unlikely. US tariffs will duck excrements up but it will take more time to manifest.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-04-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bulls in full control, next target is the Globex to 22535 or 22586 on the daily chart. Volume is atrocious and we are in a global trade war but hey, let’s go for another ath I guess. This will crash down to 19000 and lower again, zero doubt in my mind. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21000 - 23000 bull case: Bulls want 22535 or 22586 next. Above that there is no reason not to go for 24000. Nothing more to say about this tbh. Measured move from the lows to spike high is 24375 and yes, I think it’s beyond insane and yes I also think we could get there over next days. Invalidation is below 21700. bear case: Bears need prices below 21780. Simple as that. They are not doing anything right now but any decently bad news could get us there. If they print 21780, it only means something if they then close the Global gap to 21674. So far away and unlikely that we get a strong bear trend tomorrow. Market will probably need to range first before we could maybe sell again. Invalidation is above 22600. short term: Neutral. Having a hard time believing we can do another bull trend up tomorrow. I expect sideways into the weekend. Anything below 21800 is a bear surprise to me medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is ongoing but for now I still think 19500 and below is an amazing buy if you can hold for years. Things will have to turn really bad for this market to find acceptance below the bull trend line from the covid lows and right now this trade war is just front running. Markets were not priced for risk 3 weeks ago but this drop was too much too fast. My bearish targets for this year are met and with the current environment I will not call for lower prices than 19000. If the trade war turns real bad, yeah sure but for now it’s not. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying the bear trap 21900, betting on a higher low and that the big globex gap stays open. I traded it horribly and went long way too late but it was still enough to went green on the day.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-04-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bullish. I want to believe that the market can not go above 21700 but 5 consecutive daily bull bars say duck yo puts. Above 21700 no more resistance until 22000. If bulls fail, down we go to likely another higher low above 21250. Everything below 21200 is a big bear surprise. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 20000 - 22000 bull case: Bulls are heavily favored if they break above 21700. There is no more resistance then, since we would then be making higher highs and today we closed above the daily 20ema. 21480 must hold, otherwise this was a bull trap and we could continue to range between 21000 - 21700. Measured move up from today is exactly 20000. Invalidation is below 21470. bear case: Bears not doing enough and even bad news could not get follow-through selling going. Above 21700 last bears have to cover because we will likely go for 22000 again. If they somehow manage to get below 21470, this continues inside the current trading range 21000 - 21700. Bears can still argue that even the 5 consecutive daily bull bars happened but bulls are not advancing much and they can not close a daily bar above 21500. EU close was 21439. So very low probability that 21700 will hold and we go down again. Invalidation is above 21700. short term: Neutral. Want to lean bullish but I won’t buy into big previous resistance. Above 700 on good momentum I’m long for 22000. Shorts only below 21470. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is ongoing but for now I still think 19500 and below is an amazing buy if you can hold for years. Things will have to turn really bad for this market to find acceptance below the bull trend line from the covid lows and right now this trade war is just front running. Markets were not priced for risk 3 weeks ago but this drop was too much too fast. My bearish targets for this year are met and with the current environment I will not call for lower prices than 19000. If the trade war turns real bad, yeah sure but for now it’s not. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long the breakout above 21365. Clear breakout with immediate follow-through. 15m tf or higher was way better to trade than lower ones.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
#202516 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral but below 21300 really bearish if the selling is decent. I do think we saw a double top bear flag past 2 weeks and are going down from here. Invalidation is clear, above 21700 I am wrong and this could go much higher because it likely means that bears are giving up. Below 21300 I expect 21000 to be hit and if a news bomb helps, much lower again. Market now failed 2 weeks at the prior upper bull trend line from 2023-05, 50% retracement for this bear trend and the daily 20ema. 3 big reasons why this will likely continue to be resistance. current market cycle: bear trend but very likely that we have seen the lows and have transitioned to a trading range - will have a definitive answer next week. key levels: 19000 - 21700 bull case: Decently bullish week but 21500 was and still is huge resistance. Bulls could not close anything above it and since they tried for 3 days staight, chances for them are not high that we will get the breakout above next week. Until bears can make lower lows below 21100, bulls are in control of this, since they have printed 3 consecutive bullish days and we are up 12% from the lows. Their only target now is to close a strong 1h bar above 21700 and then I think the last bears will cover and this goes straight to 22000. Invalidation is below 21100. bear case: Bears are keeping this a lower high but if market continues to poke at 21700, eventually it will break and more bears will cover. Bears have the 3 big arguments on their side: 50% retracement held, daily 20ema held and we have not made higher highs and so this could very well just be a giant bear flag ready to break down over the next days. Volume was atrocious last week, compared to the 2 prior weeks and next week we will likely seen a big move again. For now there are no positive news for the bulls and the trade war is in full swing. Even if we go above 21700, my base case is a revisit of 19000 or lower for the year. Invalidation is above 21605. short term: Neutral. Breakout is imminent and right now I very slightly favor the bears but market is currently more neutral than anything else. Bullish above 21700 and bearish below 21300. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is ongoing but for now I still think 19500 and below is an amazing buy if you can hold for years. Things will have to turn really bad for this market to find acceptance below the bull trend line from the covid lows and right now this trade war is just front running. Markets were not priced for risk 3 weeks ago but this drop was too much too fast. My bearish targets for this year are met and with the current environment I will not call for lower prices than 19000. If the trade war turns real bad, yeah sure but for now it’s not.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-04-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Market does not have much more room inside the current structure. I’m favoring a huge bear trend tomorrow but until we strongly close a 1h bar below 21100, that bias does not make much sense. Lower highs and higher lows. Wait for the breakout. current market cycle: trading range or continuation of the bear trend - answer will be given on Thursday(?), maybe. Wasn’t given on Tu/We as expected, so let’s see what tomorrow brings key levels: 19000 - 22000 bull case: Bulls still above the 4h 20ema but too weak to print 21500. They are making higher lows but tomorrow, one side will most likely give up and I still favor the bears. Bulls could do the print above 21500 and retest 21700 then, if we go strongly above, we would see a short squeeze for the ages. Below 21100 bulls have to pray 21000 holds or we could go much lower to 20700 or even lower. Invalidation is below 21000. bear case: Bears need lower lows below 21100 and most certainly can not let the market get above 21500. That sum’s it up nicely I’d say. I have doubts we can close this week far from 21000. So shorts above 21300 with stop 21500 are still decent. Invalidation is above 21500. short term: Neutral. Bearish above 21300. No longs from me. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is ongoing but for now I still think 19500 and below is an amazing buy if you can hold for years. Things will have to turn really bad for this market to find acceptance below the bull trend line from the covid lows and right now this trade war is just front running. Markets were not priced for risk 3 weeks ago but this drop was too much too fast. My bearish targets for this year are met and with the current environment I will not call for lower prices than 19000. If the trade war turns real bad, yeah sure but for now it’s not. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Shorting 21500. Perfect double top.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-04-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: We will likely have a big breakout tomorrow or Wednesday. Right now I still favor the bears since we are in a bear trend but if we print 21701, it’s over and market is neutral again on higher time frames. Today’s high 21266 is not the best stop for shorts but if we just continue down from US close, it will have to do. current market cycle: trading range or continuation of the bear trend - answer will be given on Tuesday key levels: 19000 - 22000 yeah. no typo. bull case: Bulls want to stay above the 4h 20ema and break above the closest bear trend line from 22350. If they print a higher high tomorrow, we could gain enough momentum by shorts covering that we test 21500 and the next bear trend line that started this bear trend a month ago close to the ath. Bears have not printed one good bear bar on the 4h chart since Thursday after EU close. That increases the odds for the bulls somewhat but still have my doubts. Invalidation is below 21000. bear case: Bears need to make lower highs below 21226 and lower lows below 20900 early tomorrow or bulls will continue higher and bears have to cover. We are near two very important trend lines and they either hold or we go much higher again. We have been on a broad bull channel since Thursday and market has not moved up that much given the volatility the days before. Tough guesses tbh but I will continue to look for trades only near the extremes and on good momentum. Invalidation is above 21300. short term: Neutral. Mabye a bit bearish if we get decent selling going early tomorrow. 20900 - 21226 is the current range and we will likely break out of it tomorrow. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is ongoing but for now I still think 19500 and below is an amazing buy if you can hold for years. Things will have to turn really bad for this market to find acceptance below the bull trend line from the covid lows and right now this trade war is just front running. Markets were not priced for risk 3 weeks ago but this drop was too much too fast. My bearish targets for this year are met and with the current environment I will not call for lower prices than 19000. If the trade war turns real bad, yeah sure but for now it’s not. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying the globex gap close or the double bottom 20900. Why? Because every time market dipped below 20970 today, we rallied back up.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
#202515 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Big gap above up to 21500 and decent bullish island gap below down to 19950. My base case is that we will be in a big trading range for a long time but given that the past 2 weeks were one of the wildest and most erratic the stock markets have ever seen, it’s a tough guess. The lower bound is the bull trend line from the covid lows and the upper one from the ath. Does knowing the range 19000 - 22500 help you much with trading? Depends. Try to only go for fading the extremes or on very good momentum. current market cycle: bear trend but very likely that we have seen the lows and have transitioned to a trading range key levels: 19000 - 21500 bull case: Bulls created an island gap to 20300 and if they an keep that open, they can try to poke more at the bear trend line around 21500. So far their only arguments are that they prevent the market from closing below 19500 and above the bull trend line but they need daily closes above 20000. Thu + Fr they tried to make 20300 support but the closes were bearish enough that more bulls will likely wait for lower prices again. The middle of this range is 20350 and that was the most neutral price last week. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case: Bears had to take profits or they were gone very fast last week. Wild up and down with a neutral close into the weekend, maybe slightly more bullish than bearish. Bears are still in control until the bear trend lines are broken. Bears could technically see the last week as a two-legged pull-back to the daily 20ema and the 50% retracement of the current bear trend. Market turned down violently from there and that’s good for the bears. Now they need to close the bull gap down to 20000 and get a daily close below again, since the 3 days where market dropped below it, closed bullish. Invalidation is above 21700. short term: Neutral. Market is in balance at 21350. Bulls need a higher high above 21700 to end this bear trend and bears a daily close below 20000 to show acceptance at these low prices. My base case for next week is that the highs and lows will hold and we continue to contract under 21600 and above 19800. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is ongoing but for now I still think 19500 and below is an amazing buy if you can hold for years. Things will have to turn really bad for this market to find acceptance below the bull trend line from the covid lows and right now this trade war is just front running. Markets were not priced for risk 3 weeks ago but this drop was too much too fast. My bearish targets for this year are met and with the current environment I will not call for lower prices than 19000. If the trade war turns real bad, yeah sure but for now it’s not. current swing trade: Swing shorts above 21000 and swing longs below 19800. chart update: Highlighted gaps and not much else
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-04-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Cleanest breakout retest of the big bull trend line from 2024-08 one could ask for. I highly doubt bulls want to buy this above 21000 tomorrow but these moves are so unlikely that anything can happen. Only rough guesses from me here. I will only look for shorts. current market cycle: trading range more likely than continuation of the bear trend key levels: 19000 - 22000 yeah. no typo. bull case: Bulls wettest dreams came true today but this week the market took those profits away quickly afterwards and right now I have no reason to believe that it’s more likely we will continue higher than down again. Ask yourself, if you are a bull and made 10%+ today, will you bet on making 15 or locking in those sweet profits? Invalidation is below 21000. bear case: Bear trend line is valid until broken and I doubt bears will let that happen. Too much uncertainty and risk for the markets right now. Bears need to quickly trade down below 21000 tomorrow and by then I think bulls will be in give up mode again. We could range some first but currently the markets are moved by tweets from orange face and they move 10%+ up and down. Wildest of times and you just have to take the momentum trades. Above 22000 I am absolutely wrong about this and market is completely neutral again. Best for bears would be to keep it below 21900. Invalidation is above 22000. short term: Neutral. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Will update this over the weekend. Bear targets are met. I can most likely see this going sideways for months or years now. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Not writing anything about this. You either got lucky having longs when the tweet came or not. Otherwise selling 20000 before US open was a decent trade.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
#202514 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futures Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: By now you could likely be crash-news-fatigued and I get it. I keep it short and technical. My base assumption is that all markets are heading for their 50% retracements from the covid lows. If no bigger positive news will stop it, we will get there with the next leg down. For now market is tough since 20500 is close enough to expect 20000 but we could very well squeeze to 21500 before more down. Do not try to catch the knife here and wait for market to clearly stop the falling. Chart is clear, mark the levels and trade small. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 20000 - 21500 bull case: Bulls are at big support with 20000 and the bull trend line from 2023-10. That bull trend line can be drawn many different ways and I just presented one possibility and you never know which algos respect what version the most until market has turned. I do think the selling is overdone very much and the short squeeze is around the corner. Targets above are the obvious ones. 21000 and then maybe 21500 but not much more for now. Invalidation is below 19900. bear case: Bears need to reduce risk and lock in some profits I think. I highly doubt market can go to 22000 but it’s not impossible and bears don’t want to see their windfall profits disappear again. The odds of continuing straight down after -10% are low. Very very low. Market could likely do some sideways first. Bears want 20000 and there I expect most to take big profits and a bigger bounce. My wave count is most likely off since I can not see this selling ending here above 20000. The covid low bull trend line is around 19500 and too obvious to not get hit over the next weeks. Invalidation is above 21600. short term: Neutral but I expect a big short squeeze next week. 21500 is my target for the bulls but most likely outcome for next days is chop between 20000 and 21000 medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Clear new bear trend and targets were given end of 2024. If this hits 19500, you buy with both hands stocks and etfs and do not look at them for months or years. Generational buying opportunity. current swing trade: Out of most shorts. Next swing will be for W5 but I want an entry closer to 21500 or 22000 but 22000 is likely too much and we could not get there. chart update: Big bear gap won’t stay open in that size. Big bear trend line above is the most important line on this chart besides the bull trend line from the covid low.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-04-02 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: This is the event bears have prayed for, full blown trade war and this market is not positioned for any downside risk. Let’s see where we close this week. Below 21500 would be amazing but let’s close below 22000 first. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21800 - 23000 bull case: Tbh, best bulls can hope for, is to stay above 22000. I can’t see this going above 22800 for the near future. If bulls do it, I am clearly wrong. Invalidation is below 21900. bear case: Bears got the event gift and now it’s about how fast do they want to get out of this. I expect the worst but stops for now are 22800. First target is a strong move below 22300, then bears need to break 22000 and print a lower low. If they do that, we most likely freefall to 22000. If things become real bad, we hit the big bull trend line from August tomorrow, likely around 21800. Invalidation is above 22800. short term: LFG. Trade small with wide stops. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Germany takes on huge amount of new debt. Dax is rallying hard and broke above multi-year bull trends. This buying is as real as it gets, as unlikely as it is. Market is as expensive as it was during the .com bubble but here we are and marking is pointing up. Clear bull channel and until it’s broken, I can not pound my chest and scream for lower prices. Price is truth. Is the selling around 23000 strong enough that we could form a top? Yes. We have wild 1000 point swings in both directions. Look at the weekly chart. Last time we had this volatility was 2024-07 and volume then was still much lower. We are seeing a shift from US equities to European ones and until market closes consecutive daily bars below 22000, we can’t expecting anything but sideways to up movement. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Big up, big down. Triangle on the 4h chart and both sides made decent money today.
EUREX:FDXS1!Short
by priceactiontds
2025-03-31 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Not much to add on top of the tl;dr. Bear trend line is the do or die moment for bears tomorrow. Has to stay below 22600 or we go higher again. Very important day tomorrow, which will set the impulse for the next weeks. News could somewhat help the bears, since the global trade war is raging. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 22000 - 23700 bull case: Bulls want to break above the bear trend line around 22550. The reversal today was strong enough at prior support that this could get a second leg up, depending if we get a pull-back down and how deep it will be. Bulls are not favored at the bear trend line, so buying 22500 is bad for now. Invalidation is below 22400. bear case: Bears better hold that bear channel or we go to 23k again. The selling was amazing but then bears tried to stop the bulls but failed multiple times. Bulls just overwhelmed the bears and above 22400 they mostly gave up. Bears have hope now. We are still low enough that this buying can be seen as a retest of the breakout but for that market has to keep the bear gap up to 22700 open. Right at the bear trend line, bears are somewhat favored but since the channel up was so tight, most bears will wait for bigger confirmation which they might not get. Invalidation is above 22700. short term: Neutral. Bears need to sell near the bear trend line or we go higher again. I would want big confirmation before I join the bears again, since the buying today was so strong. Above 22600 bulls are favored for 22700 or higher. Below 22400 bears want to retest 22300 and the bull trend line (below is 22000 but I can’t see this going below that, at least for now). medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Germany takes on huge amount of new debt. Dax is rallying hard and broke above multi-year bull trends. This buying is as real as it gets, as unlikely as it is. Market is as expensive as it was during the .com bubble but here we are and marking is pointing up. Clear bull channel and until it’s broken, I can not pound my chest and scream for lower prices. Price is truth. Is the selling around 23000 strong enough that we could form a top? Yes. We have wild 1000 point swings in both directions. Look at the weekly chart. Last time we had this volatility was 2024-07 and volume then was still much lower. We are seeing a shift from US equities to European ones and until market closes consecutive daily bars below 22000, we can’t expecting anything but sideways to up movement. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Selling the open was reasonable since market kept below the breakout 22600.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
#202513 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futures Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: First 3 trading days of the week bulls tried to break above and failed at every higher high, printing an expanding triangle, which broke to the downside on Thursday. Outlook is tough. I want to lean bearish but there is still bigger buying coming through at new lows and betting on the bear breakout is just not a good trade. current market cycle: trading range - bull trend line is broken and market has failed to make new highs 2 times on the daily chart. key levels: 22000 - 23746 bull case: Bulls see it as a trading range at the highs and want to continue sideways until the next impulse could bring them higher again. They prevented the market from making lower lows, which is the only objective now. Once market makes new lows below 22400, the bulls know that the next support is likely the trend line around 22000, which is also the open gap close. I don’t have much else for the bulls. Narrative wise it should have made higher highs already and technically this market has turned neutral again. Invalidation is below 22400. bear case: Bears have plenty of arguments now to make lower lows and test down to 22000. If they fail again at a lower low, bears have to give up and let bulls take control again. We have a big open bear gap between 22900 and 23078. Bears have to keep this open and stay below the 4h 20ema if they want lower lows. They can even argue an ugly head & shoulders top and the measured move down would bring us to exactly 21000. If bulls would have been stronger, we would have made higher highs by now. We have seen enough strong rejections above 23000, volume has picked up significantly and US markets are falling like dead fish. Now or never for bears or we go higher. Invalidation is above 23000. short term: Neutral but bear at heart. I just won’t bet on the breakout but rather want to see it happen and only join after a retest broke down again. Previous support is too big to ignore and bears have not done enough for me to be more confident about them. Below 22500 the odds go up significantly for the bears and bulls need to recover 22900+ for more upside or at least going sideways instead of down. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Germany takes on huge amount of new debt. Dax is rallying hard and broke above multi-year bull trends. This buying is as real as it gets, as unlikely as it is. Market is as expensive as it was during the .com bubble but here we are and marking is pointing up. Clear bull channel and until it’s broken, I can not pound my chest and scream for lower prices. Price is truth. Is the selling around 23000 strong enough that we could form a top? Yes. We have wild 1000 point swings in both directions. Look at the weekly chart. Last time we had this volatility was 2024-07 and volume then was still much lower. We are seeing a shift from US equities to European ones and until market closes consecutive daily bars below 22000, we can’t expecting anything but sideways to up movement. current swing trade: Will join the bears below 22500 on good momentum for 22000 or lower. chart update: Bull trend line is gone and added bear gap
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-03-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Strong bears appeared again, volume picked up and we are down 565 points from the high. Big bull trap and these moves tend to get follow-through. Next big support is 22700 and then 22500 and I favor the lower price tomorrow, anything else would surprise me. The big spending bill is priced in and market could not make a new ath after 3 tries now. Downside has much more room than the upside. current market cycle: Clear trading range now and market is neutral around 23000. Also the bull trend line on the daily chart is broken key levels: 22500 - 23750 bull case: Bulls tried the early breakout and it looked promising. Bears surprised me as well and the move was violent enough to go for 500 points down. Bulls have nothing until they recover 23200. If bulls were hopeful for much higher prices, we would have seen them by now. The big bull trend line from 20300 is likely broken now and I do think market has turned fully neutral again. Best bulls can now hope for is to stay above 22500 and continue sideways. Invalidation is below 22400. bear case: Bears need a strong follow-through day tomorrow or might find themselves inside a bigger expanding triangle where we could go up to 23500+ again. Today’s selling was a big surprise and these moves trap traders and can have good momentum for a couple of sessions. Bears want the obvious lows of this trading range tested and maybe run some stops below 22500. They absolutely need to close below 22800 tomorrow to confirm the bull trend line break. Invalidation is above 23200. short term: Bearish. Bears need to stay below 23100 to keep the strong momentum alive. I’d like to look for shorts near the 1h 20ema. Anything above 23100 would make me neutral and above 23200 I would sit on hands and wait. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Germany takes on huge amount of new debt. Dax is rallying hard and broke above multi-year bull trends. This buying is as real as it gets, as unlikely as it is. Market is as expensive as it was during the .com bubble but here we are and marking is pointing up. Clear bull channel and until it’s broken, I can not pound my chest and scream for lower prices. Price is truth. Is the selling around 23000 strong enough that we could form a top? Yes. We have wild 1000 point swings in both directions. Look at the weekly chart. Last time we had this volatility was 2024-07 and volume then was still much lower. We are seeing a shift from US equities to European ones and until market closes consecutive daily bars below 22000, we can’t expecting anything but sideways to up movement. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying the breakout before EU open upwards was reasonable but you had to be quick to change your mind about shorting it since the move down was violent.
EUREX:FDXS1!Short
by priceactiontds
2025-03-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Big day for the bulls tomorrow. US markets rallied hard while this closed neutral but the rejection above 23300 made this day good for the bears. Bulls need to stay above 22954 and bears below 23200. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 22900 - 24000 bull case: Bulls have no more room to the downside. Either break above again or go down. Above 23300 we test 23500 and maybe higher but for now the battle is fought between 22900 and 23200. Bulls are still in control since the bull channel is alive and well. They have closed above the daily 20ema and have also six 1h bars with big tails below 23100. Problem though is that six is a bit much. They need to rally hard tomorrow or at least stay above 23100. Invalidation is below 23000. bear case: Bears printed a good rejection above 23300 and had 3 legs down while the third one made a double bottom, which is not good for them. Structure below 23100 looks better to buy and not to sell. If they keep it below 23200, they could poke 23000 a bit more and maybe more bulls will give up but for now it’s a big maybe. Market is still always in long until we have consecutive daily closes below 23000. Best bears can hope for is to continue to print lower highs below 23374. Invalidation is above 23400. short term: Slightly bullish bias around 23100 with stop 23954. I want to see a new ath and then a huge rejection from maybe 24k, which should align with my guess for the big second leg down in us markets. Still a rough guess for now. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Germany takes on huge amount of new debt. Dax is rallying hard and broke above multi-year bull trends. This buying is as real as it gets, as unlikely as it is. Market is as expensive as it was during the .com bubble but here we are and marking is pointing up. Clear bull channel and until it’s broken, I can not pound my chest and scream for lower prices. Price is truth. Is the selling around 23000 strong enough that we could form a top? Yes. We have wild 1000 point swings in both directions. Look at the weekly chart. Last time we had this volatility was 2024-07 and volume then was still much lower. We are seeing a shift from US equities to European ones and until market closes consecutive daily bars below 22000, we can’t expecting anything but sideways to up movement. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying Globex open was easy but selling was hard. Bears surprised me multiple times. Bad trading on my part today.
EUREX:FDXS1!Long
by priceactiontds
#202512 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futuresGood Day and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral week. Bulls retested the ath and could not print a new one and bears failed at 23k. Do not make these range bound markets harder than they are. You have no edge on predicting where the breakout will happen. So trade the range and if the breakout happens, wait for confirmation and join along. current market cycle: Bull trend until consecutive daily closes below 23000 (changed upwards to 23k since we are staying above it now too long) key levels: 22000 - 24000 bull case: As long as bulls keep it above the bull trend line and inside the channel, they are fine. 23k is the big support to hold for them. If it fails, we test 22500. Only question right now is, how high are the odds of another bull leg up to 24k or higher? I have no idea and every time I feel that way, I am neutral. The bull channel is still the dominant feature so bulls remain in control but they have to close green on Monday or the channel is most likely broken. Targets above are 24k and maybe 24500. Invalidation is below 23000. bear case: Double top is their only legit argument for now until we see consecutive daily closes below 23k. The Thu/Fr bear bars do not look all that bearish, so selling below 23200 is bad no matter how you look at it. If anything I’d look for longs 23126 for 23400+. I won’t make stuff up for bears. Once we close below 23k. Bears next target is previous support at 22500 and below that would be the gap close to 22270ish. Invalidation is above 23500. short term: Neutral/leaning very slightly bullish since we are near big support. If bulls come around, I want to be long for 23400+. Shorts only closer to 23746 (keep in mind we had contract switch) or on a strong move below 23k. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Germany takes on huge amount of new debt. Dax is rallying hard and broke above multi-year bull trends. This buying is as real as it gets, as unlikely as it is. Market is as expensive as it was during the .com bubble but here we are and marking is pointing up. Clear bull channel and until it’s broken, I can not pound my chest and scream for lower prices. Price is truth. Is the selling around 23000 strong enough that we could form a top? Yes. We have wild 1000 point swings in both directions. Look at the weekly chart. Last time we had this volatility was 2024-07 and volume then was still much lower. We are seeing a shift from US equities to European ones and until market closes consecutive daily bars below 22000, we can’t expecting anything but sideways to up movement. current swing trade: None chart update: Nothing big, just new targets
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-03-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: We oscillate around 23300 and not moving much. It’s a bull flag but one that has been going on for too long now. The longer we move sideways, the more neutral the market is. Clear invalidation prices for both sides. Breakout above the bull flag and 23400 could mean another try at 500 and if they crack that, 24k comes in play. Bears need strong closes below 23000 and then we could accelerate down again. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 23000 - 24000 bull case: Bulls have two big open gaps and if they defend them, they can continue to try and get a new ath above 23505 and maybe 24000 if momentum is there. On the daily chart this looks bullish and nothing else but on the 1h chart it get’s more neutral with every 1h bar. Not much else to write in favor of the bulls tbh. Either they break above the bull flag tomorrow or they better lock in those profits. Invalidation is below 23000. bear case: Bears have many arguments on their side but until we see prices below 23000, they are mostly hopes and dreams. Even the most bullish news one could make up about the big spending bill, could not get us a new ath, which means big bois are reducing their positions above 23300 (at least for now). Bears also see the big double top on the daily chart and if we break below 23000, it could accelerate down big time. Bulls have also tried 4 times on the 1h chart to get above 23300/23400 and failed each time. Market has turned mostly neutral and bears have a chance of closing the week below 23000. Invalidation is above 23550. short term: Neutral. 23300 is the fair price. Set alerts for the given invalidation prices and see if we can get a big trend before end of week. Chop is more likely though. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Germany takes on huge amount of new debt. Dax is rallying hard and broke above multi-year bull trends. This buying is as real as it gets, as unlikely as it is. Market is as expensive as it was during the .com bubble but here we are and marking is pointing up. Clear bull channel and until it’s broken, I can not pound my chest and scream for lower prices. Price is truth. Is the selling around 23000 strong enough that we could form a top? Yes. We have wild 1000 point swings in both directions. Look at the weekly chart. Last time we had this volatility was 2024-07 and volume then was still much lower. We are seeing a shift from US equities to European ones and until market closes consecutive daily bars below 22000, we can’t expecting anything but sideways to up movement. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying below 23200, which was support yesterday and today it was good for 150+ again.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-03-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Weekly outlook gave clear invalidation points and bulls broke above. We have a clear measuring gap down to 22800 now and until that is closed, it’s bullish all the way to new ath and maybe 24k. current market cycle: trading range but we could see the resumption of the bull trend tomorrow key levels: 22260 - 24000 bull case: Bulls defended the breakout and had a perfect retest with last weeks close. Every pullback now should stay above 23000 and then we are free to test 23500 and maybe even 24000. Bulls are in full control again. Invalidation is below 23000. bear case: Bears failed in breaking below the breakout of 22800ish and they had to give up after we printed 4 consecutive 1h bars with big tails below. 1h 20ema is support and until bears get consecutive closes below it again, they don’t have much. I think most bears will wait how high this one goes and start looking for shorts above 23500. Invalidation is above 23600. short term: Bullish for 23500 and maybe 24000. Bearish only below 22900. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Germany takes on huge amount of new debt. Dax is rallying hard and broke above multi-year bull trends. This buying is as real as it gets, as unlikely as it is. Market is as expensive as it was during the .com bubble but here we are and marking is pointing up. Clear bull channel and until it’s broken, I can not pound my chest and scream for lower prices. Price is truth. Is the selling around 23000 strong enough that we could form a top? Yes. We have wild 1000 point swings in both directions. Look at the weekly chart. Last time we had this volatility was 2024-07 and volume then was still much lower. We are seeing a shift from US equities to European ones and until market closes consecutive daily bars below 22000, we can’t expecting anything but sideways to up movement. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Bullish above invalidation point yesterday given. Hope you made some.
EUREX:FDXS1!Long
by priceactiontds
DAX Futures: Potential Short Setup for the Upcoming Week A potential trade setup for the upcoming week on DAX Futures presents an opportunity on the short side. Analyzing the price action, we observe a bearish impulse wave that started at 23,504 and dropped to 22,263, forming a clear five-wave structure. The subsequent three-wave correction suggests a temporary retracement rather than a trend reversal, implying that a new bearish leg could follow. The expected downward move has two key targets: First target: 21,872 Second target: 21,400 The bearish outlook remains valid as long as price does not break above 23,504. Entry Strategy Our short position will be triggered once the price falls below 22,874, confirming a breakdown under the EMA 5 and EMA 10. Entry: Below 22,874 Stop Loss: 23,248 Target 1: 21,872 (R/R = 2.60) Target 2: 21,400 (R/R = 6.40) This trade setup offers a strong risk-reward ratio, aligning with the broader bearish structure. If price invalidates the setup by moving above 23,504, we will reassess the trade idea accordingly.
EUREX:FDAX1!Short
by COLOMBINI-TRADING