DAX daytrade ideaThere is some short term supply at 21.700-21.800 area with demand at around 20.500. May be a good opportunity to take advantage on a small time frames for a daytrade.
FDXM1! trade ideas
2025-04-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Cleanest breakout retest of the big bull trend line from 2024-08 one could ask for. I highly doubt bulls want to buy this above 21000 tomorrow but these moves are so unlikely that anything can happen. Only rough guesses from me here. I will only look for shorts.
current market cycle: trading range more likely than continuation of the bear trend
key levels: 19000 - 22000 yeah. no typo.
bull case: Bulls wettest dreams came true today but this week the market took those profits away quickly afterwards and right now I have no reason to believe that it’s more likely we will continue higher than down again. Ask yourself, if you are a bull and made 10%+ today, will you bet on making 15 or locking in those sweet profits?
Invalidation is below 21000.
bear case: Bear trend line is valid until broken and I doubt bears will let that happen. Too much uncertainty and risk for the markets right now. Bears need to quickly trade down below 21000 tomorrow and by then I think bulls will be in give up mode again. We could range some first but currently the markets are moved by tweets from orange face and they move 10%+ up and down. Wildest of times and you just have to take the momentum trades. Above 22000 I am absolutely wrong about this and market is completely neutral again. Best for bears would be to keep it below 21900.
Invalidation is above 22000.
short term: Neutral.
medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Will update this over the weekend. Bear targets are met. I can most likely see this going sideways for months or years now.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Not writing anything about this. You either got lucky having longs when the tweet came or not. Otherwise selling 20000 before US open was a decent trade.
#202514 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futures
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: By now you could likely be crash-news-fatigued and I get it. I keep it short and technical. My base assumption is that all markets are heading for their 50% retracements from the covid lows. If no bigger positive news will stop it, we will get there with the next leg down. For now market is tough since 20500 is close enough to expect 20000 but we could very well squeeze to 21500 before more down. Do not try to catch the knife here and wait for market to clearly stop the falling. Chart is clear, mark the levels and trade small.
current market cycle: bear trend
key levels: 20000 - 21500
bull case: Bulls are at big support with 20000 and the bull trend line from 2023-10. That bull trend line can be drawn many different ways and I just presented one possibility and you never know which algos respect what version the most until market has turned. I do think the selling is overdone very much and the short squeeze is around the corner. Targets above are the obvious ones. 21000 and then maybe 21500 but not much more for now.
Invalidation is below 19900.
bear case: Bears need to reduce risk and lock in some profits I think. I highly doubt market can go to 22000 but it’s not impossible and bears don’t want to see their windfall profits disappear again. The odds of continuing straight down after -10% are low. Very very low. Market could likely do some sideways first. Bears want 20000 and there I expect most to take big profits and a bigger bounce. My wave count is most likely off since I can not see this selling ending here above 20000. The covid low bull trend line is around 19500 and too obvious to not get hit over the next weeks.
Invalidation is above 21600.
short term: Neutral but I expect a big short squeeze next week. 21500 is my target for the bulls but most likely outcome for next days is chop between 20000 and 21000
medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Clear new bear trend and targets were given end of 2024. If this hits 19500, you buy with both hands stocks and etfs and do not look at them for months or years. Generational buying opportunity.
current swing trade: Out of most shorts. Next swing will be for W5 but I want an entry closer to 21500 or 22000 but 22000 is likely too much and we could not get there.
chart update: Big bear gap won’t stay open in that size. Big bear trend line above is the most important line on this chart besides the bull trend line from the covid low.
2025-04-02 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: This is the event bears have prayed for, full blown trade war and this market is not positioned for any downside risk. Let’s see where we close this week. Below 21500 would be amazing but let’s close below 22000 first.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 21800 - 23000
bull case: Tbh, best bulls can hope for, is to stay above 22000. I can’t see this going above 22800 for the near future. If bulls do it, I am clearly wrong.
Invalidation is below 21900.
bear case: Bears got the event gift and now it’s about how fast do they want to get out of this. I expect the worst but stops for now are 22800. First target is a strong move below 22300, then bears need to break 22000 and print a lower low. If they do that, we most likely freefall to 22000. If things become real bad, we hit the big bull trend line from August tomorrow, likely around 21800.
Invalidation is above 22800.
short term: LFG. Trade small with wide stops.
medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Germany takes on huge amount of new debt. Dax is rallying hard and broke above multi-year bull trends. This buying is as real as it gets, as unlikely as it is. Market is as expensive as it was during the .com bubble but here we are and marking is pointing up. Clear bull channel and until it’s broken, I can not pound my chest and scream for lower prices. Price is truth. Is the selling around 23000 strong enough that we could form a top? Yes. We have wild 1000 point swings in both directions. Look at the weekly chart. Last time we had this volatility was 2024-07 and volume then was still much lower. We are seeing a shift from US equities to European ones and until market closes consecutive daily bars below 22000, we can’t expecting anything but sideways to up movement.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Big up, big down. Triangle on the 4h chart and both sides made decent money today.
2025-03-31 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Not much to add on top of the tl;dr. Bear trend line is the do or die moment for bears tomorrow. Has to stay below 22600 or we go higher again. Very important day tomorrow, which will set the impulse for the next weeks. News could somewhat help the bears, since the global trade war is raging.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 22000 - 23700
bull case: Bulls want to break above the bear trend line around 22550. The reversal today was strong enough at prior support that this could get a second leg up, depending if we get a pull-back down and how deep it will be. Bulls are not favored at the bear trend line, so buying 22500 is bad for now.
Invalidation is below 22400.
bear case: Bears better hold that bear channel or we go to 23k again. The selling was amazing but then bears tried to stop the bulls but failed multiple times. Bulls just overwhelmed the bears and above 22400 they mostly gave up. Bears have hope now. We are still low enough that this buying can be seen as a retest of the breakout but for that market has to keep the bear gap up to 22700 open. Right at the bear trend line, bears are somewhat favored but since the channel up was so tight, most bears will wait for bigger confirmation which they might not get.
Invalidation is above 22700.
short term: Neutral. Bears need to sell near the bear trend line or we go higher again. I would want big confirmation before I join the bears again, since the buying today was so strong. Above 22600 bulls are favored for 22700 or higher. Below 22400 bears want to retest 22300 and the bull trend line (below is 22000 but I can’t see this going below that, at least for now).
medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Germany takes on huge amount of new debt. Dax is rallying hard and broke above multi-year bull trends. This buying is as real as it gets, as unlikely as it is. Market is as expensive as it was during the .com bubble but here we are and marking is pointing up. Clear bull channel and until it’s broken, I can not pound my chest and scream for lower prices. Price is truth. Is the selling around 23000 strong enough that we could form a top? Yes. We have wild 1000 point swings in both directions. Look at the weekly chart. Last time we had this volatility was 2024-07 and volume then was still much lower. We are seeing a shift from US equities to European ones and until market closes consecutive daily bars below 22000, we can’t expecting anything but sideways to up movement.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling the open was reasonable since market kept below the breakout 22600.
#202513 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futures
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: First 3 trading days of the week bulls tried to break above and failed at every higher high, printing an expanding triangle, which broke to the downside on Thursday. Outlook is tough. I want to lean bearish but there is still bigger buying coming through at new lows and betting on the bear breakout is just not a good trade.
current market cycle: trading range - bull trend line is broken and market has failed to make new highs 2 times on the daily chart.
key levels: 22000 - 23746
bull case: Bulls see it as a trading range at the highs and want to continue sideways until the next impulse could bring them higher again. They prevented the market from making lower lows, which is the only objective now. Once market makes new lows below 22400, the bulls know that the next support is likely the trend line around 22000, which is also the open gap close. I don’t have much else for the bulls. Narrative wise it should have made higher highs already and technically this market has turned neutral again.
Invalidation is below 22400.
bear case: Bears have plenty of arguments now to make lower lows and test down to 22000. If they fail again at a lower low, bears have to give up and let bulls take control again. We have a big open bear gap between 22900 and 23078. Bears have to keep this open and stay below the 4h 20ema if they want lower lows. They can even argue an ugly head & shoulders top and the measured move down would bring us to exactly 21000. If bulls would have been stronger, we would have made higher highs by now. We have seen enough strong rejections above 23000, volume has picked up significantly and US markets are falling like dead fish. Now or never for bears or we go higher.
Invalidation is above 23000.
short term: Neutral but bear at heart. I just won’t bet on the breakout but rather want to see it happen and only join after a retest broke down again. Previous support is too big to ignore and bears have not done enough for me to be more confident about them. Below 22500 the odds go up significantly for the bears and bulls need to recover 22900+ for more upside or at least going sideways instead of down.
medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Germany takes on huge amount of new debt. Dax is rallying hard and broke above multi-year bull trends. This buying is as real as it gets, as unlikely as it is. Market is as expensive as it was during the .com bubble but here we are and marking is pointing up. Clear bull channel and until it’s broken, I can not pound my chest and scream for lower prices. Price is truth. Is the selling around 23000 strong enough that we could form a top? Yes. We have wild 1000 point swings in both directions. Look at the weekly chart. Last time we had this volatility was 2024-07 and volume then was still much lower. We are seeing a shift from US equities to European ones and until market closes consecutive daily bars below 22000, we can’t expecting anything but sideways to up movement.
current swing trade: Will join the bears below 22500 on good momentum for 22000 or lower.
chart update: Bull trend line is gone and added bear gap
2025-03-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Strong bears appeared again, volume picked up and we are down 565 points from the high. Big bull trap and these moves tend to get follow-through. Next big support is 22700 and then 22500 and I favor the lower price tomorrow, anything else would surprise me. The big spending bill is priced in and market could not make a new ath after 3 tries now. Downside has much more room than the upside.
current market cycle: Clear trading range now and market is neutral around 23000. Also the bull trend line on the daily chart is broken
key levels: 22500 - 23750
bull case: Bulls tried the early breakout and it looked promising. Bears surprised me as well and the move was violent enough to go for 500 points down. Bulls have nothing until they recover 23200. If bulls were hopeful for much higher prices, we would have seen them by now. The big bull trend line from 20300 is likely broken now and I do think market has turned fully neutral again. Best bulls can now hope for is to stay above 22500 and continue sideways.
Invalidation is below 22400.
bear case: Bears need a strong follow-through day tomorrow or might find themselves inside a bigger expanding triangle where we could go up to 23500+ again. Today’s selling was a big surprise and these moves trap traders and can have good momentum for a couple of sessions. Bears want the obvious lows of this trading range tested and maybe run some stops below 22500. They absolutely need to close below 22800 tomorrow to confirm the bull trend line break.
Invalidation is above 23200.
short term: Bearish. Bears need to stay below 23100 to keep the strong momentum alive. I’d like to look for shorts near the 1h 20ema. Anything above 23100 would make me neutral and above 23200 I would sit on hands and wait.
medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Germany takes on huge amount of new debt. Dax is rallying hard and broke above multi-year bull trends. This buying is as real as it gets, as unlikely as it is. Market is as expensive as it was during the .com bubble but here we are and marking is pointing up. Clear bull channel and until it’s broken, I can not pound my chest and scream for lower prices. Price is truth. Is the selling around 23000 strong enough that we could form a top? Yes. We have wild 1000 point swings in both directions. Look at the weekly chart. Last time we had this volatility was 2024-07 and volume then was still much lower. We are seeing a shift from US equities to European ones and until market closes consecutive daily bars below 22000, we can’t expecting anything but sideways to up movement.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying the breakout before EU open upwards was reasonable but you had to be quick to change your mind about shorting it since the move down was violent.
POSSIBIBLE BREAKOUT ON FDAXFDAX 60MIN CHART
Let's see if one of my favourite pattern is going to take place on DAX
2025-03-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Big day for the bulls tomorrow. US markets rallied hard while this closed neutral but the rejection above 23300 made this day good for the bears. Bulls need to stay above 22954 and bears below 23200.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 22900 - 24000
bull case: Bulls have no more room to the downside. Either break above again or go down. Above 23300 we test 23500 and maybe higher but for now the battle is fought between 22900 and 23200. Bulls are still in control since the bull channel is alive and well. They have closed above the daily 20ema and have also six 1h bars with big tails below 23100. Problem though is that six is a bit much. They need to rally hard tomorrow or at least stay above 23100.
Invalidation is below 23000.
bear case: Bears printed a good rejection above 23300 and had 3 legs down while the third one made a double bottom, which is not good for them. Structure below 23100 looks better to buy and not to sell. If they keep it below 23200, they could poke 23000 a bit more and maybe more bulls will give up but for now it’s a big maybe. Market is still always in long until we have consecutive daily closes below 23000. Best bears can hope for is to continue to print lower highs below 23374.
Invalidation is above 23400.
short term: Slightly bullish bias around 23100 with stop 23954. I want to see a new ath and then a huge rejection from maybe 24k, which should align with my guess for the big second leg down in us markets. Still a rough guess for now.
medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Germany takes on huge amount of new debt. Dax is rallying hard and broke above multi-year bull trends. This buying is as real as it gets, as unlikely as it is. Market is as expensive as it was during the .com bubble but here we are and marking is pointing up. Clear bull channel and until it’s broken, I can not pound my chest and scream for lower prices. Price is truth. Is the selling around 23000 strong enough that we could form a top? Yes. We have wild 1000 point swings in both directions. Look at the weekly chart. Last time we had this volatility was 2024-07 and volume then was still much lower. We are seeing a shift from US equities to European ones and until market closes consecutive daily bars below 22000, we can’t expecting anything but sideways to up movement.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying Globex open was easy but selling was hard. Bears surprised me multiple times. Bad trading on my part today.
#202512 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futuresGood Day and I hope you are well.
comment: Neutral week. Bulls retested the ath and could not print a new one and bears failed at 23k. Do not make these range bound markets harder than they are. You have no edge on predicting where the breakout will happen. So trade the range and if the breakout happens, wait for confirmation and join along.
current market cycle: Bull trend until consecutive daily closes below 23000 (changed upwards to 23k since we are staying above it now too long)
key levels: 22000 - 24000
bull case: As long as bulls keep it above the bull trend line and inside the channel, they are fine. 23k is the big support to hold for them. If it fails, we test 22500. Only question right now is, how high are the odds of another bull leg up to 24k or higher? I have no idea and every time I feel that way, I am neutral. The bull channel is still the dominant feature so bulls remain in control but they have to close green on Monday or the channel is most likely broken. Targets above are 24k and maybe 24500.
Invalidation is below 23000.
bear case: Double top is their only legit argument for now until we see consecutive daily closes below 23k. The Thu/Fr bear bars do not look all that bearish, so selling below 23200 is bad no matter how you look at it. If anything I’d look for longs 23126 for 23400+. I won’t make stuff up for bears. Once we close below 23k. Bears next target is previous support at 22500 and below that would be the gap close to 22270ish.
Invalidation is above 23500.
short term: Neutral/leaning very slightly bullish since we are near big support. If bulls come around, I want to be long for 23400+. Shorts only closer to 23746 (keep in mind we had contract switch) or on a strong move below 23k.
medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Germany takes on huge amount of new debt. Dax is rallying hard and broke above multi-year bull trends. This buying is as real as it gets, as unlikely as it is. Market is as expensive as it was during the .com bubble but here we are and marking is pointing up. Clear bull channel and until it’s broken, I can not pound my chest and scream for lower prices. Price is truth. Is the selling around 23000 strong enough that we could form a top? Yes. We have wild 1000 point swings in both directions. Look at the weekly chart. Last time we had this volatility was 2024-07 and volume then was still much lower. We are seeing a shift from US equities to European ones and until market closes consecutive daily bars below 22000, we can’t expecting anything but sideways to up movement.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing big, just new targets
2025-03-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: We oscillate around 23300 and not moving much. It’s a bull flag but one that has been going on for too long now. The longer we move sideways, the more neutral the market is. Clear invalidation prices for both sides. Breakout above the bull flag and 23400 could mean another try at 500 and if they crack that, 24k comes in play. Bears need strong closes below 23000 and then we could accelerate down again.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 23000 - 24000
bull case: Bulls have two big open gaps and if they defend them, they can continue to try and get a new ath above 23505 and maybe 24000 if momentum is there. On the daily chart this looks bullish and nothing else but on the 1h chart it get’s more neutral with every 1h bar. Not much else to write in favor of the bulls tbh. Either they break above the bull flag tomorrow or they better lock in those profits.
Invalidation is below 23000.
bear case: Bears have many arguments on their side but until we see prices below 23000, they are mostly hopes and dreams. Even the most bullish news one could make up about the big spending bill, could not get us a new ath, which means big bois are reducing their positions above 23300 (at least for now). Bears also see the big double top on the daily chart and if we break below 23000, it could accelerate down big time. Bulls have also tried 4 times on the 1h chart to get above 23300/23400 and failed each time. Market has turned mostly neutral and bears have a chance of closing the week below 23000.
Invalidation is above 23550.
short term: Neutral. 23300 is the fair price. Set alerts for the given invalidation prices and see if we can get a big trend before end of week. Chop is more likely though.
medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Germany takes on huge amount of new debt. Dax is rallying hard and broke above multi-year bull trends. This buying is as real as it gets, as unlikely as it is. Market is as expensive as it was during the .com bubble but here we are and marking is pointing up. Clear bull channel and until it’s broken, I can not pound my chest and scream for lower prices. Price is truth. Is the selling around 23000 strong enough that we could form a top? Yes. We have wild 1000 point swings in both directions. Look at the weekly chart. Last time we had this volatility was 2024-07 and volume then was still much lower. We are seeing a shift from US equities to European ones and until market closes consecutive daily bars below 22000, we can’t expecting anything but sideways to up movement.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying below 23200, which was support yesterday and today it was good for 150+ again.
2025-03-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Weekly outlook gave clear invalidation points and bulls broke above. We have a clear measuring gap down to 22800 now and until that is closed, it’s bullish all the way to new ath and maybe 24k.
current market cycle: trading range but we could see the resumption of the bull trend tomorrow
key levels: 22260 - 24000
bull case: Bulls defended the breakout and had a perfect retest with last weeks close. Every pullback now should stay above 23000 and then we are free to test 23500 and maybe even 24000. Bulls are in full control again.
Invalidation is below 23000.
bear case: Bears failed in breaking below the breakout of 22800ish and they had to give up after we printed 4 consecutive 1h bars with big tails below. 1h 20ema is support and until bears get consecutive closes below it again, they don’t have much. I think most bears will wait how high this one goes and start looking for shorts above 23500.
Invalidation is above 23600.
short term: Bullish for 23500 and maybe 24000. Bearish only below 22900.
medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Germany takes on huge amount of new debt. Dax is rallying hard and broke above multi-year bull trends. This buying is as real as it gets, as unlikely as it is. Market is as expensive as it was during the .com bubble but here we are and marking is pointing up. Clear bull channel and until it’s broken, I can not pound my chest and scream for lower prices. Price is truth. Is the selling around 23000 strong enough that we could form a top? Yes. We have wild 1000 point swings in both directions. Look at the weekly chart. Last time we had this volatility was 2024-07 and volume then was still much lower. We are seeing a shift from US equities to European ones and until market closes consecutive daily bars below 22000, we can’t expecting anything but sideways to up movement.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Bullish above invalidation point yesterday given. Hope you made some.
DAX Futures: Potential Short Setup for the Upcoming Week A potential trade setup for the upcoming week on DAX Futures presents an opportunity on the short side.
Analyzing the price action, we observe a bearish impulse wave that started at 23,504 and dropped to 22,263, forming a clear five-wave structure. The subsequent three-wave correction suggests a temporary retracement rather than a trend reversal, implying that a new bearish leg could follow.
The expected downward move has two key targets:
First target: 21,872
Second target: 21,400
The bearish outlook remains valid as long as price does not break above 23,504.
Entry Strategy
Our short position will be triggered once the price falls below 22,874, confirming a breakdown under the EMA 5 and EMA 10.
Entry: Below 22,874
Stop Loss: 23,248
Target 1: 21,872 (R/R = 2.60)
Target 2: 21,400 (R/R = 6.40)
This trade setup offers a strong risk-reward ratio, aligning with the broader bearish structure. If price invalidates the setup by moving above 23,504, we will reassess the trade idea accordingly.
#202511 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Wild week where market reversed the huge selling on Friday and the daily bear bar looks more bullish than bearish. 23k is the battleground right now. If bears keep it a lower high, we could test further down but if they don’t, bulls could try and go for 24k. News certainly help in fueling this right now.
current market cycle: Bull trend until consecutive daily closes below 22000
key levels: 22000 - 24000
bull case: Above 23500 we could go for 24000 next week. This did not change since market went nowhere last week. Bulls defended the gap to 22000 and that is as bullish as it get’s. Plan for bulls is clear, keep market above the adjusted bull trend line around 22500 and make new ath above 23500, likely going for 24000. The channel looks still good, so trade it like it’s valid.
Invalidation is below 22400 because it would invalidate the channel but only a print below 22000 would change the character of this market.
bear case: Bears have shown decent selling pressure for 1200 points but that does not matter if they can not get below 22000 again. I do think it’s not unlikely that the bears have the argument for a head & shoulders, if 23000 proves to be bigger resistance now. I’d still favor the bulls for now but if we fail below 23200 for the next 3-6 days, the bull trend line would be broken and market could test lower, if overall sentiment shifts again after the expected short squeeze. Yes, I do keep in mind that German stocks are likely profiting big time from the spending spree Germany will likely go on but I am a price action daytrader. I read the chart and develop a thesis would could happen and if it does I put on risk. This front-running could very well reverse. Bears only have their confirmation below 22000 and for now market has tested 22147 - 22300 enough that bears gave up.
Invalidation is above 23500.
short term: Neutral around 22800/23200. Above 23200 we will retest 23500 and above that we likely try for 24000. 22400-22800 is the dead zone and only below 21900 bears have good reasons for lower prices. For now I can’t see any reason why this would fall below 22000 next week.
medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Germany takes on huge amount of new debt. Dax is rallying hard and broke above multi-year bull trends. This buying is as real as it gets, as unlikely as it is. Market is as expensive as it was during the .com bubble but here we are and marking is pointing up. Clear bull channel and until it’s broken, I can not pound my chest and scream for lower prices. Price is truth. Is the selling around 23000 strong enough that we could form a top? Yes. We have wild 1000 point swings in both directions. Look at the weekly chart. Last time we had this volatility was 2024-07 and volume then was still much lower. We are seeing a shift from US equities to European ones and until market closes consecutive daily bars below 22000, we can’t expecting anything but sideways to up movement.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
2025-03-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bulls making higher lows and closing 4h bars at the highs. They need a 1h close above 22900 for more upside. Until the bear trend line is broken, bears are still in control though. 22600 is a bad spot to trade. Either wait for a bigger pullback or a breakout. We are currently inside the big bear channel and a smaller bull channel. Breakout mode and will likely see a bigger move over the next 1-2 days.
current market cycle: trading range - bull trend clearly broken now
key levels: 22000 - 24000
bull case: Bulls need a 1h close above 22900 and they should not let the market drop below 22500 again. That’s all there is to it. Wait for the breakout.
Invalidation is below 21900.
bear case: Not making more stuff up here. Bears need lower lows again and stay inside the bear channel. Below 22500 we likely sell off to 22300 or finally for 22000.
Invalidation is above 22900.
short term: Neutral around 22600. Watch the chart. Contracting range and 2 channels. Wait for better structure or clear breakout.
medium-long term from 2024-02-26: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. Daily close below 22000 is needed to turn this neutral and end the bull trend-.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Yesterday I told you to be bullish. Bullish it was. 500 points.
FDAX Analysis: Medium-Term Top, Short OpportunitiesFrom a technical standpoint, I believe the DAX has formed a medium-term top at 23,504 and has begun a 5-wave structure that is likely completing wave A of an A-B-C correction within a larger 4th wave.
On an hourly basis, the trend has shifted, and I consider any retracement or bounce as a solid opportunity to take a short position. The structure indicates that we are in the early stages of a corrective move, and a continuation of the bearish momentum is expected as the market unfolds.
Traders should keep an eye on key levels for potential entry points as the market tests resistance. 📉
2025-03-11 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bears are clearly in control and we have two bear trend lines above us. One around 22600 and the bigger one around 23000. Bulls need to claim 22900 and bears obviously want 22k. Absolutely no idea what we get first. Buying volume increased big time at previous low around 22300 but overall market sentiment has to reverse. I can not see dax rallying 2%+ if us indexes stay at the lows. 22400 is the neutral price, so don’t trade it.
current market cycle: trading range - bull trend clearly broken now
key levels: 22000 - 24000
bull case: Bulls need to get back above 22800 if they want further upside. For now they have buy new lows and scalp. For bulls to reverse this, they would need to print a clear higher low and trapping late bears. Market can not rally, if we make lower lows the whole time. Not much for bulls here and it could be because they expect 22k to be hit and want to buy that.
Invalidation is below 21900.
bear case: Bears want to finally print 22000 again. last time we did was early February. Problem for them is, we are at huge previous support. Should you bet that the breakout will happen? Never. Wait for it to happen and join along and wait for a bounce to sell higher. Any bounce has to stay below 22600 and then we can continue down. Selling below 22400 is bad, no matter what. Bears remain in control until the current bear channel is broken.
Invalidation is above 23600.
short term: Neutral around 22400. Bearish above 22500 if we stall too much and bears come around again. If bulls stay above 22300/22400 and print a lower high, I will join them if us markets do the same. I expect a huge bounce soon.
medium-long term from 2024-02-26: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. Daily close below 22000 is needed to turn this neutral and end the bull trend-.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying during the Globex session was fun and then selling above 22800 again, since it was resistance from yesterday. Where should you have sold? Market hit 22835 and then only printed lower highs for 7 15m bars. That was certainly strong enough to cover longs.
FDAX 3 hr UpdateFDAX hit oversold on RSI and MFI, so if the algos are still running then we may see a gap up tomorrow (for US indices) despite the weakness this afternoon.
I didn't carry any overnight positions so I'm hoping for a gap down, lol.
#202510 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Market had big swings up and down last week but went nowhere after Monday’s gap up. Can’t be anything but neutral. The bull channel is valid until broken so bulls remain in control.
current market cycle: Bull trend until consecutive daily closes below 22000
key levels: 22000 - 24000
bull case: Above 23500 we could go for 24000 next week. Market is still euphoric given the probable spending spree the new government wants to do. It’s still being front-run since there are still couple of hurdles before that bill is approved, so bulls better be cautious buying new highs on the hopes of higher ones. New highs were immediately sold lately so I guess we continue with the deeper pullbacks for bulls to buy. I’d be very surprised if we see an acceleration of this trend and a break above the channel. More likely is some more sideways to down until we hit the lower trend line again.
Invalidation is below 21900.
bear case: Bears selling new highs and making decent money but that’s about it. Bull channel is alive and well and we have not closed a daily bar below the daily 20ema since first trading day of 2025. Bears had a really strong bear day on Tuesday but the follow-through was even better, so they are burned again if they did not take profits the same day. Bears can start yapping again once we have a daily close below 23k, until they I will mainly look for long scalps.
Invalidation is above 23500.
short term: Neutral around 23000/223400 and only interested in strong momentum trades. Longs above 500 or around 23k. Shorts only on another strong rejection above 400 or very strong selling below 23k.
medium-long term from 2024-02-16: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed last weeks guess of a contracting range. Market is still too bullish for that. Added new bull channel.
2025-03-06 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Another ath but two rejections for 300+ points. I give bulls one more try at this and if we pull back below 23300 again, this likely sells off into the weekend. Past 3 Friday’s we chopped into the weekend after a gap down. Right now is not the time to have bigger positions over the weekend when orange face is at work.
current market cycle: bull trend until trend line is broken (daily close below 22300)
key levels: 22000 - 24000
bull case: Bulls want 24k now. They are high enough that they could get there but the upper bull trend line is still resistance and every time we touched it in the past days, we sold off for couple hundred points. Bulls know that and since we closed high, I doubt many want to buy above 23200 and hold those over the weekend. Weekly close above 23000 would be very good for the bulls though.
Invalidation is below 22900.
bear case: Bears need the week to close below 23k, no ifs or buts. A head & shoulders breakdown would be my preferred structure tomorrow, with a measured move down could get us to 22500 but we would need a news bomb I guess. Technically chop between 23000 - 23500 is most likely after a wild week. Weekly close couple ticks below 23k. Anything below 22900 tomorrow is a bear surprise and could go much lower then. Again, my bullish targets were all met with 23k and this channel can’t go on forever but until it’s broken, bulls are in control.
Invalidation is above 23600.
short term: Neutral around 23200/300. Bearish only below 22900 or around 23500. I’d like to see a lower high tomorrow and then some really big bear bars and a bear surprise. More likely is chop though. Next days we could get some news that the current government might not be able to get enough votes to get the gigantic special budget approved. If so, could trigger a mini-crash. This market is up here on the hopes and dreams of German stimulus. Not saying it won’t happen but front-running goes horribly wrong sometimes.
medium-long term from 2024-02-26: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. Daily close below 22000 is needed to turn this neutral and end the bull trend-.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying from 23130 was insanely strong on US open but so was the rejection. Both trades were good if you are comfortable with reversing positions. You could have bought at previous support and sold at previous resistance. So both were amazing trades and not the hardest to take.
2025-03-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Very strong selling followed by very strong buying but bears defended where they had to. Another one for the 50% retracement if you go from ath down to 22348, the 50% is around 22849 and market stopped the bounce pretty much there. Now we have a big gap up from 22357 up to 22707 but I doubt this will stay open. My bias is bearish with stop 23091 but for now we can’t expect market to drop below 22300 since the buying down there was so strong.
current market cycle: bull trend until trend line is broken (daily close below 22300)
key levels: 22000 - 23351
bull case: Bulls reversed 78.6% of the selling almost to the tick. I let you figure out which glorified pattern that is. I do not care about them nearly as much as others. I only care about the 50% and then maybe 30% or 60% to determine how strong the pullback is. Bulls showed strength by rallying for 500+ points and that naturally makes me think the downside is limited for now. Problem for them is, the rejection from 22351 on Monday was so strong that they likely won’t buy high again and wait for pullbacks. Since bears also showed strength, we will likely continue sideways. Bulls need something above 23091 to retest 23355 or go higher.
Invalidation is below 22300.
bear case: Bears had an amazing small-pullback-bear-trend but bulls bought heavily the lows on the news that the EU will do a new fund and Germany will also likely do new debt to finance defense and infrastructure stuff. Does it matter? Not really. Clear descending triangle for us to trade until we make higher highs or lower lows. We are above the 50% of it and I favor the bears to retest at least 22400 tomorrow. So shorts close to 22800 are reasonable. Bears also have going for them, that lately not-bad news got bought but then reversed to the downside, which I believe suits the sell-the-rip market we could be in. US indexes will likely have more downside over the next weeks, since this whole move down could be seen as a bigger W1 on the weekly chart for sp500 and nasdaq. Dax will follow them, just takes a bit more time I guess. Plan for this week is still to hit 22000 and then some strong moves down to 21000 over the next 1-2 weeks.
Invalidation is above 23091.
short term: Neutral around 22700. Bearish above 22800 and bullish below 22450. Strong moves to both sides will likely result in sideways movement and not a strong breakout to either side. My thesis is still that Monday was a higher high major trend reversal and we could have seen the highs.
medium-long term from 2024-02-26: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. Daily close below 22000 is needed to turn this neutral and end the bull trend-.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Small pullback bear trend from EU open 22955 down to 22357. It was so strong, you had to be short. 5m 20ema held like a champ. 22350 was previous support and once market stopped making new lows, bears needed to reduce risk and take profits. Could you have anticipated that the bounce would be good for 500+ points? Hell no. If you took a long, good for you. To make a living from trading you don’t have to be perfect or amazing, you just have to be good and that meant, taking reasonable profits on shorts and not watching them disappear on the bounce.
2025-03-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: 791 points from low to high today. The selling stopped exactly at the 50% retracement and this is the line in the sand for my outlook. We have two very big patterns now possible. We either melt much higher to 23800+ or we do a proper correction like the US markets but we very likely won’t continue sideways around 23000.
current market cycle: bull trend until trend line is broken (daily close below 22300)
key levels: 22500 - 24000
bull case: Bulls are likely in do or die mode. They melted higher but if they can’t stay above the important breakout price 23000, this could become a bull trap/higher high - major trend reversal and we go down from here. If we stay above and correct sideways some around 23000, we will likely retest 23350 tomorrow and could get a second leg up to 23800+. The bull channel is valid until broken, so respect it.
Invalidation is below 22900.
bear case: Bears need to break below the bull channel around 22300. Everything else is just neutral, since we are in such a strong bull trend. They have to stop new highs or we continue up. What are the odds that today was a climactic bull trap at the end of this bull trend? I don’t know right now but I have given my invalidation prices, so mark them and look what the market does when we get there. My wave thesis was already done at the previous 23k but we can obviously have another break above and another rally higher. Market is beyond overvalued but who cares if it’s only going up. I start favoring the bears if we can get below 22900 because then the odds that the highs are in become much bigger.
Invalidation is above 23400.
short term: Neutral around 23k. Bearish below 22900 for more downside to potentially 22300 again but this is much lower probability. Bulls are favored to retest 23350 or get another leg higher.
medium-long term from 2024-02-26: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. Daily close below 22000 is needed to turn this neutral and end the bull trend-.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Long below 22600. Market found no acceptance there and the gap to Friday’s close stayed open. Congratulations if you took it and banked 600+ points.
#202509 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Very erratic price action the past week. Monday and Tuesday closed below the mid point of the daily range, just to have a 2% up day on Wednesday, followed by retest of the lows and closing almost exactly at the middle of it all. Bulls keep making money buying the dips and bears are not strong enough to even get to 22000. Can only expect more sideways price action inside the triangle. If anything I’d say the bulls are favored to retest 23k since we are staying at these highs and above the daily 20ema.
current market cycle: Bull trend until consecutive daily closes below 22000
key levels: 22000 - 23000
bull case: Not much changed to last week since we have only made lower highs and higher lows. Bulls want to retest 23k and since they are producing prominent tails below the bars that dip below 22300, they are slightly favored vs bears that hope for a test of 22000. 22500/22600 is the middle of this range and the worst place to trade. If bulls come out strongly on Monday, I will heavily favor them to trade up to at least 22700. I have no opinion on targets above 23k.
Invalidation is below 21900.
bear case: Bears finding no acceptance below 22400 and Friday has touched the daily 20ema and reversed strongly. They can not hold short if we continue above 22550 because we could easily do 22700 or 23000. Only question for me is, do they try to force another lower high and continue with the contraction or could we retest 23k and maybe then some? I don’t know and if anything I favor the bulls since the bears are just not doing anything strong besides that one Wednesday where we sold 569 points. Targets for bears remain the same. Daily close below 22300 and below the daily ema and bull trend line opens op possibility for 22000. Zero doubt that we will see a bounce at that price. I don’t see this dropping meaningfully unless we get some really really bad news. Technically it’s clear as day that only bulls making the easy points.
Invalidation is above 23000.
short term: Neutral around 22500/22600 and only interested in strong momentum trades. Shorts above 22700 and longs below 22400. Play the triangle until clearly broken.
medium-long term from 2024-02-16: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed previous bull channel and added triangle.
