2024-10-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - In my weekly post yesterday I wrote “max bullish” a couple of times and I hope you did not short this today. Bulls are in absolute control and they have no reason to stop buying every small dip. You can not be a bear on the hope that this madness will stop eventually. It can go much further than you can imagine. Strong day, strong close, can only expect higher prices until bears print consecutive big bear bars on higher time frames. My best guess is still a blow-off top this week, which can mark the top before we see a bigger correction. Today felt like we are already in it.
dax futures
comment: Bulls got follow through and confirmed Friday’s bullishness. There is nothing bearish about this so don’t waste time looking for bear arguments. You never want to be the first in trading unless you are a big institution who needs to scale into positions because you literally move the market otherwise. 19700 is almost a given but buying high is not the way to go here. Wait for decent pullbacks. Today the 30m 20ema was perfect to buy on 3 occasions.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 19500 - 20000
bull case: Bulls are close enough to 20000 and bears absent to enough to expect that we get there. We have formed a proper channel where the lower trend line is around 19600. If that holds, it’s max bullish again but we could also reach the bigger trend line around 19500 before going higher again. Since bulls literally bought every dip since Wednesday, expect for them to continue to do so.
Invalidation is below 18500.
bear case: Best they can hope for is sideways movement and maybe get down to the 1h 20ema. Anything below 19500 would surprise me. Their target is to test the 1h 20ema and the lower bull channel line around 19600ish. If they somehow break that, their next target would be the price area around 19550.
Invalidation is above 18720.
short term: Max bullish until bears come around. Look for longs.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06: 3 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19500 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Not so sure about 19491 being the high, since liquidity could see a bigger increase and upside could be higher. We will likely have another 10%+ correction this year and a possible year end rally.
Update 2024-10-13: Possibility of a blow-off top to 20000 is there. If we get there, it will be the short opportunity of the decade.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Close of last week held during Globex, EU opened could not even get down there, that was the last big hint bulls mean business and you should get long. Only real tricky thing today was to either hold through bar 32 - 34 or get long again on bar 49 or 54.
