EURGBP - Europe will pass this winter safely!?The EURGBP currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its descending channel. If the resistance range is broken, we can witness the upward movement of this currency pair. A valid break of the drawn upward trend line will provide us with the downward path of this currency pair to the level of 0.82400.
Bloomberg has reported that the cessation of Russian natural gas flow to Europe via Ukraine is likely to heighten competition with Asia and drive up the cost of alternatives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on Wednesday that Ukraine hopes increased gas supplies from the U.S. and other producers to Europe will make prices more acceptable.
The flow of gas from Russia to Europe through Ukraine stopped on Wednesday, marking the end of over five decades of this route being the primary channel for gas to the Eurozone. While this move was anticipated after months of political tension, Europe still needs to replace about 5% of its gas supply and may increasingly rely on storage levels that have now dropped below average.
The European Commission noted that the suspension of gas flow via Ukraine on January 1st was a foreseen scenario, and the EU is prepared for it.
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), expressed optimism that the ECB could achieve a 2% inflation rate by 2025. She stated, “We have made significant progress in reducing inflation in 2024 and hope that 2025 will be the year we reach our target as expected and planned in our strategy. However, we will continue our efforts to ensure inflation stabilizes at the 2% medium-term target.”
Meanwhile, UBS has noted that the value of the U.S. dollar has increased, suggesting that investors can sell dollars more robustly and convert them to currencies such as the British pound or the Australian dollar. Despite the recent rise in the dollar’s value, driven by shifts in expectations around Federal Reserve policies and U.S. government actions, the bank believes the dollar remains overvalued.
While UBS does not anticipate a sharp decline in the dollar’s value in the short term, it sees opportunities for investors to pivot toward more attractive currencies. The British pound (GBP) and Australian dollar (AUD) are among its top picks due to their potential to perform well amidst evolving global monetary conditions.
Additionally, according to data from Nationwide, house prices in the UK reached near-record levels at the end of last year. This indicates that the real estate market continues to gain momentum. Nationwide reported that house prices rose by 0.7% on a monthly basis, reaching an average of £269,426 (equivalent to $337,500). This figure is only slightly below the record high of £273,751 recorded in the summer of 2022.
