EURGBP trade ideas
Could the price reverse from here?EUR/GBP is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.8404
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.8448
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 0.8347
Why we like it:
there is a pullback support that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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7 Dimension Sell Setup for EURGBP😇 7 Dimension Analysis
Top-Down View:
A daily internal swing breach indicates the possibility of a retracement to fill the Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) area. Additionally, an H4 Change of Character (CHoCH) along with a major swing liquidity sweep suggests a move towards the H4 inducement area, which aligns with the H1 decisional order block and the Daily Bullish FVG, creating a robust buy Point of Interest (POI) for long-term entries. However, in this 15-minute analysis, we focus on the short-term bearish momentum for a counter-trend sell entry.
Analysis Time Frame: 15-Minute (15M)
Swing Structure:
Bullish with BOS (Break of Structure): The 15M structure is bullish with a valid BOS, which took an inducement to confirm a swing high.
Discount Zone: We’re waiting for the price to enter the discounted zone to mitigate the POI, which has been refined across multiple time frames. The target area is between 0.8340 and 0.8420, where liquidity is expected to be resting.
Pattern:
🟢 Chart Patterns:
Flag Pattern: An H1 flag pattern indicates strong sell-side momentum, reinforcing the idea of a retracement within this bullish structure.
🟢 Candle Patterns:
Momentum Candles: Strong momentum candles closing bearishly indicate solid selling pressure in the area of interest.
Volume:
A noticeable increase in volume on the last candle suggests significant interest from sellers, supporting a bearish bias in the short term.
Momentum (RSI):
🟢 Super Bearish Zone: Momentum is in the super bearish zone with a clear range shift, indicating that bearish pressure may continue in the immediate term.
Volatility (Bollinger Bands):
🟢 Contraction and Squeeze: Following a volatile move, price contraction has led to a tight squeeze on the bands. A clear “M” pattern has formed within this squeeze, and we now expect a continuation of bearish momentum with a “walking on the band” move on the downside.
Strength (ROC and DMI):
ROC and DMI Analysis: The Bearish DMI line is sharply increasing, indicating strong bearish momentum. The setup suggests an anticipated strong selling attempt as the market opens.
Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Probability: 75%
Overall, the analysis provides high confidence in a short-term pullback, with several technical indicators and patterns supporting a temporary bearish move.
Trade Setup:
Entry Details:
Entry Time Frame: 15-Minute
Entry TF Structure: Bullish (counter-trend)
Point of Interest (POI): Recent Order Flow
Trade Execution:
💡 Decision: Sell Limit
🚀 Entry: 0.8379
✋ Stop Loss: 0.8391
🎯 Take Profit: 0.8340
😊 Risk to Reward Ratio: 3.25 RR
🕛 Expected Duration: 1 Day
SUMMARY:
This short-term sell setup targets a counter-trend pullback within a larger bullish structure on the higher time frames. With multiple confluences including strong sell-side volume, bearish flag patterns, and clear RSI bearish momentum, this setup anticipates a retracement to the identified support zone. A Sell Limit order at 0.8379 seeks to capture the downside move towards 0.8340, offering a favorable 3.25 RR.
Sentiment Play Before Major Events (Past)Fundamentals & Sentiment
EUR:
- Recent economic data has been bullish, driving the euro up
GBP:
- Raised taxes - bearish in the short-term for the pound
- Recent bearish economic data
Technical & Other
Expectations
- after such a runup, the technical area is good for taking profits, especially before NFP on the same day and the US Elections next week.
Setup: S(B)
Setup timeframe: 1h
Trigger: 1h
Medium-term: Up
Long-term: Down
Min target: 50% of the upward move
Stop loss: 0.26%
Position size: 0.66 of the normal Risk Unit
EURGBP / LONG / M15EURGBP may rise from the Bullish Order Block
Bullish Order Block: 0.83698 and 0.83643
EURGBP has a high probability of rising from this bullish order block. If price reacts positively, our trade is likely to end in profit. Let's monitor closely to see how the price develops within this zone.
EURGBP / LONG / M15
LOT :- 0.2
Entry price :- 0.83757
Take Profit :- 0.84087
Stop Loss :- 0.83401
EURGBPIf the analysis aligns with the market's actual direction, and the currency pair moves in the anticipated direction (up for a buy trade or down for a sell trade), the trade will likely yield a profit. The magnitude of the profit will depend on the size of the price movement, position size, and leverage used.
EURGBP-SELL strategy 3-hourly chartThe pair is overextended short-term,even though we understand the underlying conditions why.
The facts are, we are overstretched, and it requires some pullback short-term.
Strategy SELL current 0.8435-0.8450 and take profit around 0.8375 or slightly lower. SL based on personal risk appetite.
Could the EUR/GBP reverse from here?The price is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support level.
Pivot: 0.84541
1st Support: 0.84046
1st Resistance: 0.84860
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EURGBP with two probabilities for 11/1/2024This is my idea Nbr 24 after 20 ✅️
EURGBP with a high probability to make the decision for 11/1/2024 ✅️ :
🔸️If the price exceeds the green bar 🟩, with the bar closing in the hour above: there will be a high chance of entering a purchase as indicated in the chart, respecting the day, news and the stop loss.
🔸️If the price exceeds the red bar 🟥, with the bar closing in the hour below: there will be a high chance of entering a sale as indicated in the chart, respecting the day, news, and the stop loss.
EUR/GBPIn financial markets, "AB=CD" is a harmonic pattern that traders use to predict potential reversals or continuations in price movements. It's named after its basic structure: the price forms two legs (AB and CD) that are equal in time and price magnitude.
A "bullish AB=CD" pattern suggests that the price is likely to rise. Traders look for specific Fibonacci ratios between the lengths of AB and CD, typically 0.618 or 1.618, to confirm the pattern. When these ratios align, it's seen as a signal that the price may continue to rise after completing the CD leg.
However, like any technical analysis tool, it's not foolproof, and traders often use it in conjunction with other indicators and analysis methods to make informed decisions.
Support test and possible ignition move in the EURGBP.EUR/GBP is sitting in a significant support area on the daily chart, marked by a descending trendline (which was broken in yesterday’s candle) and a horizontal level of support that comes all the way from 2022. Below are some key points about the pair at the moment:
Horizontal Support at Lowest time since 2022: The orange line on the chart marks a critical support area, coinciding with the lowest price recorded since 2022. This horizontal support suggests a strong turning point where sellers seem to be losing steam, which could indicate a possible reversal if the price remains above this level.
Bullish Engulfing Pattern: On September 30, in the daily chart a Bullish Engulfing pattern has recently formed after the price touched the support area. This pattern, characterized by a bullish candle completely engulfing the previous bearish candle, signals renewed interest from buyers and potential bullish momentum in the coming days
Break of downtrend line: On September 30th, EURGBP showed the beginning of a break of a downtrend line that has been in place since August 8th. This also indicates a potential increase in buying interest in this region.
Fibonacci Levels as Potential Targets: The 0.382 and 0.5 Fibonacci levels stand out as potential targets for an upward correction. The red zone near the 0.5 level (around 0.8460) is an important resistance point, which could serve as a target if the price maintains its recovery.
Resistance and Support: The orange line at the 0.8339 level represents a critical support zone. On the other hand, the region near 0.8460 (0.5 Fibonacci level) is a potential resistance and target for buyers if the bullish momentum continues.
Considering these factors, an upward move could occur if the price remains above the support, with a possible target for levels near 0.8460. Alternatively, a break below the horizontal support and the descending trendline could trigger renewed selling pressure, driving the price to lower levels.
Watch for NonFarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday:
Traders interested in EUR/GBP should also keep an eye on the upcoming US NonFarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is due out on Friday, November 1. This economic indicator affects the dollar directly, but it can also impact global market sentiment, influencing pairs such as EUR/GBP. A strong NFP reading could lead to an overall strengthening of the dollar, which could indirectly affect the euro and pound, while a weak reading could have the opposite effect.
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