EUR/JPY H1 | Potential bullish bounceEUR/JPY is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 158.94 which is an overlap support.
Stop loss is at 158.35 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 160.59 which is a swing-high resistance.
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EURJPY trade ideas
EURJPY Buy SetupOur analysis is based on multi-timeframe top-down analysis & fundamental analysis.
Based on our view the price will rise to the monthly level.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis can change anytime without notice and is only for assisting traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no reason to act on it, and neither should you.
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Eur/Joy sell setup UsdJpy gave confluence to this. I'll be looking to go short from 159.788 you can wait for H4 rejection of the zone before looking for sell opportunities or you go aggressive, it depends on the kinda trader you are.
Taking the 159.5 as Inducement my point of interest looks valid and I'll be anticipating what price would do at that level.
Kindly boost if you find this insightful 🫴
EURJPY Wave Analysis – 11 February 2025
- EURJPY reversed from the support area
- Likely to rise to the resistance level 159.65
EURJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the support area located between the key support level 156.000 (which has been steadily reversing the price from August of 2024 as can be seen below) and the lower weekly Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support area stopped the previous weekly downward impulse wave (3) from last year.
Given the strength of the support level 156.000, EURJPY currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 159.65 (the former weekly low from January).
EURJPYEUR/JPY – Short Fundamental Analysis
1. Context
• European Central Bank (ECB)
• Indications suggest potential easing (or at least a pause in hikes) starting around Q2 2025, as Eurozone growth remains moderate.
• Inflation in the Eurozone has started to decline, though still slightly above the ECB’s long-term target.
• Bank of Japan (BoJ)
• Maintains ultra-loose monetary policy with near-zero interest rates.
• Any minor adjustments (e.g., yield curve control tweaks) have not yet indicated a fundamental move toward tightening.
• Eurozone Economy
• Modest growth, with some Member States showing signs of manufacturing slowdown.
• Weaker economic indicators could motivate the ECB to be more cautious or dovish, pressuring the euro.
• Japanese Economy
• Moderate GDP expansion; slightly higher inflation than traditional Japanese norms but still below levels seen in other major economies.
• The yen remains under pressure against higher-yielding currencies, reflecting the ongoing rate gap.
2. COT Report Insights
• EUR
• Recent Commitments of Traders (COT) data show a mild shift toward increasing short positions on the euro, as some funds are betting on the ECB pivoting to a less hawkish or even dovish stance if growth falters.
• JPY
• Speculative accounts continue to hold notable net short positions on the yen, driven by the ultra-accommodative BoJ stance and relatively low yields. This keeps the yen structurally weak on a broad basis.
3. Potential Direction
• Bias
• Bullish for EUR/JPY on the premise of a significant interest rate differential: even if the ECB slows or pauses rate hikes, European rates remain higher compared to Japan’s near-zero levels.
• Alternate Scenario
• Any unexpected hawkish signals from the BoJ—like adjusting yield curve control more aggressively or hinting at rate hikes—could spark a corrective move downward in EUR/JPY.
4. Catalysts to Watch
1. ECB & BoJ Policy Statements
• Any change in tone (e.g., the ECB turning more dovish than expected or the BoJ signaling normalization).
2. Eurozone Economic Data
• PMI figures, inflation numbers, and GDP releases that influence the ECB’s policy path.
3. Japanese Indicators
• Inflation and GDP reports; any sign the BoJ might step away from its ultra-loose policies.
Disclaimer
This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not represent trading advice. Financial markets can be volatile and carry significant risk. Always consult official sources and adapt your strategy to your risk profile before making trading decisions.
Institutional Demand: EUR/JPY longsHey,
The second JPY pair on watch is EUR/JPY..
Very similar of course as the other ones.
Correlation is high and when a currency creates value, it's across the board.
Allowing us to either take more trades or have a higher prob. of getting an entry.
Not executed yet, waiting for 4-hour confirmation a little bit lower.
Kind regards,
Max Nieveld
EURJPY analysis elliot. Don't forget about stop-loss.
Write in the comments all your questions and instruments analysis of which you want to see.
Friends, push the like button, write a comment, and share with your mates - that would be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy.
Always make your analysis before a trade
Just a day ahead plan for interesting areas for scalpsJust a day ahead plan for interesting areas, NO LTF confirmation NO entries
Good RR areas to look at
Heikin ashi for trailing and runners
EURO have potential to overperform vs alot of currencies if tariff risk gets repriced
information created and published doesn't constitute investment advice!
NOT financial advice
Strong Downtrend in EURJPY—Here’s My Trade Plan!In this video, we take a quick look at the EURJPY currency pair, which is currently in a strong downtrend. On the four-hour timeframe, we can clearly see lower highs and lower lows. However, price has now reached a key support zone on the weekly and daily timeframes. While my bias remains bearish, I’ll be watching for a retracement toward previous swing highs for a potential entry, as the pair is trading into a significant liquidity pool and is likely to react at this level. This is not financial advice.