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EURJPY trade ideas

EUR/JPY – High-Probability Short Setup 1️⃣ Market Overview – Bearish Bias Confirmation EUR/JPY remains in a strong downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows. Currently, the price is retracing into a critical Fibonacci resistance zone, making this a prime opportunity to short the pair in line with institutional sentiment and seasonality trends. 2️⃣ Fibonacci Levels – Identifying Key Resistance The Fibonacci retracement is drawn from the most recent bearish impulse. Resistance Zone: 0.5 (156.888) to 0.786 (157.107) – a high-probability rejection area. If price fails to break above this zone, a continuation to the downside is expected. Prime Seasonality Insights – Historical Data Supports the Short Bias 📊 Seasonality trends over 15 years indicate that EUR/JPY historically declines in late February and early March. 🔻 February seasonality performance: -0.7% average return 🔻 Next 3-5 day forecast: Bearish probabilities (-0.06% to -0.21%) 🔻 Seasonality prediction candles show a short-term retracement, followed by downside continuation. 💡 This aligns with the technical setup, reinforcing a short bias. 4️⃣ Retail Sentiment – Smart Money Edge 🚨 79% of retail traders are LONG on EUR/JPY – a contrarian signal for a short trade. 🔻 Institutions (Smart Money) are aggressively shorting EUR/JPY, as seen in COT data. 🔻 Commitment of Traders (COT) Report shows increased institutional short positioning. 🔻 Retail traders trapped in longs will likely get stopped out, fueling further downside. 5️⃣ Technical Confirmation – Trendline & Indicators ✅ Price is below all major EMAs (6, 24, 72, 288) on the 4-hour chart. ✅ Supertrend remains bearish on the 4-hour timeframe. ✅ A downward sloping trendline aligns with the Fibonacci resistance zone. 💡 I will wait for confirmation (rejection wick, bearish engulfing candle) before entering a short position. 6️⃣ Conclusion – Trade Plan for EUR/JPY 🔹 Bias: Bearish due to downtrend, Fibonacci resistance, seasonality, and institutional short positioning. 🔹 Trade Setup: Sell EUR/JPY at 156.88 - 157.10 (Upon rejection) Stop Loss: Above 157.26 Take Profit Targets: 156.30, 156.04, 156.00 🔹 Key Confirmation: Retail traders are trapped in longs, seasonality supports further downside, and institutions are short. 🚀 This is a prime example of how combining Seasonality, Smart Money Positioning, and Technicals can create a powerful trade setup. 📌 What’s your outlook on EUR/JPY? Let’s discuss in the comments!
Short
by LDForex_
Eur/Jpy Long swingOn longer timeframe I am looking for shorts on Eur/Jpy but in nearest time I expect some kind of pullback up to MA20 and possibly up to trendline seen on dailychart. For entry look for confirmation in priceaction. It may take couple of days into next week to see what price wants to do. 154.500 is a good place to enter. If price falls straight through support than wait with pulling a trigger. In this case area under lows can be a good place for long entry. But it price struggles to move lower it's your sign to go long. For target aim for MA20 around 158.500 on dailychart and if price looks to hold here expect more upside, up to current highs around 163.00 Stop-loss under major lows.
Long
by VarisSvard
1
EUR/JPY Tests Key Support at 156.00 – Breakdown or Bounce?📉 EUR/JPY edges lower to 156.38 (-0.22%) as sellers pressure key support. 🔎 Technical Setup: 156.00 major horizontal support holding for now. Bearish bias intact below 50-day EMA (160.08) & 200-day EMA (161.87). Break below 156.00 could open downside toward 152.50-153.00. 📊 Momentum Indicators: RSI at 36.62 → Not oversold yet, but approaching key levels. MACD remains bearish, confirming ongoing downside pressure. ⚠️ Key Levels to Watch: Bulls must defend 156.00 or risk further selling pressure. A break & close below 156.00 could accelerate losses toward 152.50. Bulls need a reclaim of 158.50-160.00 for trend reversal. 🚀 Decision point for EUR/JPY – will 156.00 hold? 📌 Watching daily close for confirmation. - MW
by FOREXcom
EURJPY forming a bottom?EURJPY - 24h expiry Posted a Bullish Hammer Bottom on the 4 hour chart. Bullish divergence can be seen on the 4 hour chart (the chart makes a lower low while the oscillator makes a higher low), often a signal of exhausted bearish momentum, or at least a correction higher. This is positive for short term sentiment and we look to set longs at good risk/reward levels for a further correction higher. Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 156.97 level. Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today. We look to Buy at 156.75 (stop at 155.72) Our profit targets will be 159.47 and 160.55 Resistance: 159.10 / 160.55 / 162.00 Support: 154.40 / 151.10 / 149.30 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Long
by OANDA
EURJPY 4h strong support zone EUR/JPY – 4H Chart Analysis (Feb 27, 2025) 1. Market Structure & Trend Analysis The chart shows that EUR/JPY has broken out of a descending channel, indicating a potential bullish reversal. A higher low formation could confirm the beginning of an uptrend. The key resistance level to watch is 159.87, where the price could face selling pressure. 2. RSI & Momentum Analysis RSI is currently at 51.89, signaling that momentum is shifting towards the bulls. The previous downtrend showed oversold conditions, and now RSI is starting to rise, confirming a potential bullish move. 3. Key Levels to Watch Support: 156.38 (Breakout retest zone; price must stay above this to remain bullish) 155.50 - 156.00 (Demand zone; if lost, downtrend may resume) Resistance: 159.87 (Major resistance; could act as a take-profit zone for longs) 162.00 (Next resistance if the uptrend gains strength) 4. Potential Trade Scenarios 📈 Bullish Scenario (Higher Probability) If price holds above 156.38 and continues its breakout move, a rally towards 159.87 is likely. Long Setup: Entry: Around 156.50 - 157.00 Stop-loss: Below 156.00 Target: 159.87 📉 Bearish Scenario (Low Probability) If price fails to hold above 156.38, a drop back into the channel could happen. A rejection at 159.87 could also trigger a retracement. 5. Conclusion & Strategy Short-term bias: Bullish, targeting 159.87 if support at 156.38 holds. Trade idea: Look for a pullback entry near support and ride the breakout move. Risk management: Keep a tight stop below 156.00 to avoid false breakouts.
Long
by Forexbeats
EURJPY INTRADAY bearish below 158.50 The EURJPY price action sentiment appears bearish, supported by the longer-term prevailing downtrend. The key trading level is at 158.50, the 03rd February swing low level and falling resistance trendline zone. An oversold rally from the current levels and a bearish rejection from the 158.50 level could target the downside support at 155.73 followed by 154.74 and 153.25 levels over the longer timeframe. Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 158.50 resistance and a daily close above that level would negate the bearish outlook opening the way for further rallies higher and a retest of 161.28 resistance followed by 162.74 levels. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
EUR/JPY "YUPPY" Forex Market Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Thieves, 🤑 💰🐱‍👤🐱‍🏍 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the EUR/JPY "YUPPY" Forex Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits, Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Buy above (157.700) then make your move - Bullish profits await!" however I advise to placing the Buy Stop Orders above the breakout MA (or) placing the Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest. Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at 156.000 (swing Trade Basis) Using the 4H period, the recent / Swing Low or High level. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: 160.000 (or) Escape Before the Target 🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook: ╰┈➤EUR/JPY "YUPPY" Forex Market is currently experiencing a bullish trend,., driven by several key factors. 🟠Fundamental Analysis 1. Interest Rates: The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained a hawkish stance, with interest rates expected to remain around 3.25%. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has also maintained a dovish stance, with interest rates expected to remain around -0.10% 2. Inflation: Eurozone inflation is expected to be around 2.2% in 2025, while Japan's inflation is expected to be around 1.5% 3. GDP Growth: Eurozone GDP growth is expected to be around 1.2% in 2025, while Japan's GDP growth is expected to be around 1.1% 4. Trade Balance: The Eurozone has a significant trade surplus, while Japan has a trade deficit. 🟡Macroeconomic Factors 1. Monetary Policy: The ECB and BOJ's monetary policies have a significant impact on EUR/JPY. 2. Fiscal Policy: Government spending and taxation policies in the Eurozone and Japan can impact the economy and currency. 3. Global Events: Events like the COVID-19 pandemic, Brexit, and trade wars can impact EUR/JPY. 🔴COT Data 1. Non-Commercial Traders: These traders hold a net long position in EUR/JPY futures, with 55.1% of open interest. 2. Commercial Traders: Commercial traders hold a net short position in EUR/JPY futures, with 44.9% of open interest. 3. Open Interest: The total number of outstanding contracts is 233,111. 🟤Market Sentimental Analysis 1. Bullish Sentiment: 53.5% of investors are bullish on EUR/JPY. 2. Bearish Sentiment: 46.5% of investors are bearish on EUR/JPY. 3. Sentiment Index: The sentiment index is at 54.2, indicating a neutral market sentiment. 🟣Positioning Analysis 1. Long Positions: 56.3% of investors are holding long positions in EUR/JPY. 2. Short Positions: 43.7% of investors are holding short positions in EUR/JPY. 3. Retail Trader Sentiment: Retail traders are net long EUR/JPY, with a sentiment index of 57.1%. 4. Institutional Trader Sentiment: Institutional traders are net short EUR/JPY, with a sentiment index of 45.6%. 🔵Quantitative Analysis 1. Moving Averages: The 50-day moving average is above the 200-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend. 2. Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is at 55.9, indicating a neutral market sentiment. 3. Bollinger Bands: The price is trading near the upper band, indicating a potential overbought condition. 🟢Intermarket Analysis 1. Correlation with Other Markets: EUR/JPY has a positive correlation with EUR/USD and a negative correlation with USD/JPY. 2. Commodity Prices: EUR/JPY has a positive correlation with gold prices and a negative correlation with oil prices. ⚫News and Events Analysis 1. ECB Meetings: The ECB's monetary policy decisions can significantly impact EUR/JPY. 2. BOJ Meetings: The BOJ's monetary policy decisions can also impact EUR/JPY. 3. Economic Data Releases: Releases of economic data, such as GDP growth and inflation, can influence EUR/JPY. ⚪Next Trend Move Based on the analysis, the next trend move for EUR/JPY is likely to be bullish, with a potential target of 160.000. 🟡Future Prediction Based on the analysis, the future prediction for EUR/JPY is bullish, with a potential target of 165.000 in the next 6-12 months. 🔴Overall Summary Outlook EUR/JPY is expected to remain in a bullish trend, driven by the ECB's hawkish stance and the BOJ's dovish stance. However, investors should remain cautious of potential market volatility and economic uncertainties. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
Long
by Thief_Trader
EURJPY Will Go Higher From Support! Buy! Take a look at our analysis for EURJPY. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 156.763. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 158.582 level soon. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
Potential bullish rebound?EUR/JPY is reacting off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance which lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Pivot: `155.94 1st Support: 153.99 1st Resistance: 158.57 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
EURJPY Wave Analysis – 24 February 2025 - EURJPY reversed from support zone - Likely to rise to resistance level 158.00 EURJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the support zone between the multi-month support level 156.00 (which has been reversing the pair rom last August) and the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support zone is likely to form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Piercing Line – if the pair closes today near the current levels. Given the strength of the support level 156.00 and the bullish euro sentiment seen today, EURJPY currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 158.00.
Long
by FxProGlobal
EUR/JPY "The Yuppy" Forex Market Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Thieves, 🤑 💰🐱‍👤 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the EUR/JPY "The Yuppy" Forex market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits, Be wealthy and safe trade always.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the breakout (160.000) then make your move - Bullish profits await!" however I advise placing Buy Stop Orders above the breakout MA or Place Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest. Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at the recent / swing low or high level Using the 3H timeframe (158.000) swing trade basis. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: 1st Target - 162.200 (or) Escape Before the Target Final Target - 165.400 (or) Escape Before the Target 🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook: EUR/JPY "The Yuppy" Forex Market is currently experiencing a bullish trend,., driven by several key factors. 🟡Fundamental Analysis The EUR/JPY exchange rate is influenced by the Eurozone's economic growth, inflation, and interest rates, as well as Japan's economic performance. Currently, the Eurozone's economy is experiencing moderate growth, with a slight increase in inflation. ⚫Macroeconomic Analysis The European Central Bank has maintained a hawkish stance, with interest rates expected to remain high in the short term. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan has kept interest rates at historic lows, supporting the economy. 🔴COT Data Analysis The Commitments of Traders (COT) report shows that commercial traders are net short, while non-commercial traders are net long. This indicates a potential trend reversal 🟠Market Sentimental Analysis Market sentiment is slightly bullish, with 55% of traders holding long positions. Institutional traders are holding long positions, while hedge funds are holding short positions. Retail traders are also holding long positions. 🟤Market Sentiment by Trader Type - Institutional Traders: 60% bullish, 40% bearish - Hedge Funds: 55% bearish, 45% bullish - Retail Traders: 55% bullish, 45% bearish 🟢Positioning Data Analysis Institutional traders are holding long positions, while corporate traders are holding short positions. Banks are maintaining a bearish stance. 🟣Overall Outlook The EUR/JPY exchange rate is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight bullish bias due to the Eurozone's economic growth and inflation. However, the pair's movement will largely depend on the overall performance of the Eurozone and Japanese economies, as well as global economic trends. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 📌Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions. 📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
Long
by Thief_Trader
EURJPY 2H SHORTEURJPY 2H Fundamentals: •Eurozone 10Y Bonds broke a key ascending trendline to the downside and have now retested it before continuing lower. This suggests that the EUR is overvalued and that investors are losing confidence in the Eurozone. •Conversely, Japanese 10Y Bonds have been in a strong uptrend for a while now. •The Non-Weighted Currency Index also shows that the Yen is strong, as it recently broke a descending trendline, retested it, and then surged higher. •Meanwhile, the Non-Weighted Currency Index of the Euro shows the opposite pattern. A bearish flag is forming on the daily timeframe, which could indicate a potential decline. •Lastly, we have the monetary policy divergence between the ECB and the BoJ. The BoJ is expected to hold rates, while the ECB is expected to cut. •The only concern is risk sentiment, which could weigh negatively on the Yen. Technical Analysis •On the daily timeframe, there is a strong uptrend, but a bearish triangle has formed. •On the 8H timeframe, we can see a 61% Fibonacci rejection, forming a clear double top, signaling strong selling pressure, followed by a break of a key support level. •On the H4 timeframe, another double top confirms the sellers’ strength, further validated by the break of the 50-SMA, which had previously acted as a dynamic support. •I am expecting a rejection at 50% Fibonacci at 156.180, which will be my entry price. •Stop-loss at 159.400, slightly above the previous support-turned-resistance. •Target: 149.000, a psychological level and a round number. •Retail traders are mostly long (80%), confirming that a short position would be a valid opportunity.
Short
by Marco-kh