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EURJPY trade ideas

EURJPY Forms Ascending Wedge Near Key ResistanceEURJPY price action is contracting as it approaches the 165 resistance level. The newly formed wedge-like pattern could be an early sign that bulls are starting to lose control. Asian currencies have begun gaining strength recently, and the Taiwan dollar’s surprise move is just one example of this trend. At the same time, USDJPY is testing a major broken trendline (see our earlier post linked below). If USDJPY gets rejected at this level while EURUSD got rejected as well from the resistance around 1.1275, there is a strong chance that EURJPY could break out of the ascending wedge pattern to the downside. In that scenario, the first strong target would be the 160 level, followed by a potential move toward the major 155 support, depending on broader market conditions. EURUSD: USDJPY:
Short
by ftdsystem
EURJPYEUR/JPY Interest Rate Differential, Upcoming Economic Data, and Directional Bias (May 2025) Interest Rate Differential Overview Eurozone (ECB): The European Central Bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in June 2025, with inflation forecasts lowered (e.g., core CPI forecast for 2026 revised down to 1.7%). This signals a dovish bias and easing monetary policy ahead. Japan (BoJ): The Bank of Japan maintains a very low policy rate at 0.5%, with cautious communication about gradual rate hikes. The 10-year JGB yield recently declined to 1.32%, reflecting market skepticism about sustained tightening amid global uncertainties. The BoJ plans up to two more hikes by Q1 2026 but remains sensitive to financial market volatility and yen strength. Resulting Differential: The Eurozone currently offers a higher interest rate environment than Japan, but with expected ECB cuts and cautious BoJ tightening, the differential remains wide but may narrow over time. This wide differential has historically supported EUR/JPY strength. Upcoming Key Economic Data and Events Date Event Potential Impact on EUR/JPY May 7, 2025 ECB Meeting (no rate change expected) Market eyes June cut; dovish tone could weaken EUR temporarily. May 7, 2025 BoJ Policy Statement & Press Conference Watch for guidance on future hikes; dovish signals could weaken JPY further. May 15, 2025 Eurozone CPI Data (April) Soft inflation supports ECB easing, bearish EUR bias. May 15, 2025 Japan CPI Data (April) Inflation trends influence BoJ tightening path; lower inflation weakens JPY. May 30, 2025 Eurozone Economic Sentiment Weak sentiment may pressure EUR. June 6, 2025 ECB Rate Decision Expected 25bps cut could weaken EUR and EUR/JPY. Directional Bias and Price Outlook Current Price: Around ¥162.5 (early May 2025). Short to Medium Term: EUR/JPY is trending higher due to the wide interest rate differential favoring the euro and ongoing BoJ caution. Market expects ECB easing and BoJ gradual tightening, which may keep EUR/JPY supported but with volatility around ECB meetings and inflation prints. Lack of recent Japanese intervention to strengthen the yen has allowed EUR/JPY to drift higher. Summary Table Factor Impact on EUR/JPY Wide Eurozone-Japan rate differential Supports EUR/JPY upside ECB easing expectations Could pressure EUR short term BoJ cautious tightening Weakens JPY, supports EUR/JPY Soft Eurozone inflation data Bearish for EUR, limits gains Lack of JPY intervention Allows EUR/JPY to trend higher US-China trade tensions easing Risk-on sentiment supports EUR Conclusion EUR/JPY’s near-term strength is primarily driven by a wide interest rate differential favoring the euro, combined with a cautious Bank of Japan and expectations of ECB rate cuts. Upcoming inflation data and central bank meetings are key catalysts that could cause volatility. Traders should watch ECB June decisions and BoJ communications closely, as these will influence the pace of monetary policy divergence and EUR/JPY direction.
Long
by Shavyfxhub
EURJPY Trade IdeaEUR/JPY showed a minor sell-off as yen gains due to tariff uncertainty. It hits an high of 164.60 and is currently trading around 163.41. Intraday outlook is bullish as long as the support 163 holds. Technical Analysis: The EUR/JPY pair is trading above 34, below 55 EMA and above 200-4H EMA on the 4- hour chart. Near-Term Resistance: Around 164 a breakout here could lead to targets at 164.60/ 165/166.65/167. Immediate Support: At 163.40 if breached, the pair could fall to 163/162/ 161.49/160.50/160/ 159.25/158.85/158.25. Indicator Analysis 4-hour chart): CCI (50): Bullish Average Directional Movement Index: Neutral Overall, the indicators suggest a mixed trend Trading Recommendation: It is good to buy on dips around 163 with a stop loss at 162 for a TP of 165/166.65.
Long
by adiechiii
EUR/JPY Weekly Analysis📊 EUR/JPY Weekly Analysis 🔍 Technical Insight by Shaker Trading 🔻 Bearish Market Structure: Strong Descending Channel (Daily): The pair is currently moving within a clear downward channel on the daily timeframe, reflecting continued bearish pressure. Key Demand Zones (Daily): Several strong demand areas are visible on the daily chart, which could serve as potential bounce points. Overbought Signals on RSI & MACD: Both the RSI and MACD indicators are showing signs of overbought conditions, suggesting the bullish momentum may be weakening. 📌 Trading Outlook: We expect the bearish movement to continue. However, short-term pullbacks may occur from the demand zones before resuming the downtrend. Trade with caution and wait for confirmation signals. 🔥 Copy Trading for Free Let our team handle the trades while you sit back and watch the results – totally free of charge.
Short
by ShakerTrading
Elite Validity Check | EUR/JPY 🔖 Header Current Price & Spread** | **162.176 / 162.20 | **Timestamp (EST)** | 2025-04-29 01:20 | | **Risk-Level Tag** | **Medium-High** – trading near yearly highs ahead of key EUR data | | **Bias Checklist** | HTF trend ✅ | confluence ✅ | fundamentals ⚠️ | | **Confidence Label** | **Technical High / Event-Risk Medium → Overall High** | --- ### 1️⃣ Technical Outlook * **Multi-TF Trend (W1/D1/H4)** – **Bullish** (higher highs since Nov-24). Price pressing the 2025 top-of-range.​ ( [EUR JPY Chart – Euro Yen Rate - * **Structure & Liquidity** – * **Support**: 161.60-161.30 (H4 OB + prior swing). * **Resistance**: 162.80 (Feb-25 high) → next liquidity **163.70-164.00** (2024 peak) ( * **Momentum Scan** – Weekly RSI 68 (near overbought); Daily MACD positive but histogram flattening (momentum pause). ( * **Volume** – Monday’s EU session candle closed 22 % above its 20-day avg tick volume (breakout confirmation). ( [EUR/JPY slips below 163.00 as trade-related uncertainties benefit --- ### 2️⃣ Primary Alert Zones | Zone | Price | Type | Setup Idea 📝 | |---|---|---|---| | **Pullback Demand** | **161.60-161.30** | H4 OB + 50 DMA | M15 bullish engulf + > 20 % vol | | **Breakout Supply** | **162.80-163.00** | Feb swing-high | Scale-out / watch false-break | --- ### 3️⃣ Indicators Snapshot | Metric | Value | Read-out | |---|---|---| | RSI (H4) | 64 | bullish but near hot zone | | MACD (D1) | >0, hist ↓ | waning momentum | | ATR 14 (1 h) | **≈ 21 pips** (7-day avg) | IG Sentiment | **~62 % short** (contrarian bullish) --- ### 4️⃣ Fundamental & Sentiment Radar * **Tue 02:00** – German CPI flash (EUR). * **Tue 05:00** – EZ flash GDP & HICP. * **Thu Japan** – Tokyo CPI (early BoJ inflation gauge). * **BoJ Outlook** – Next policy mtg ≙ Jun 13; officials jawboning JPY strength → risk of verbal intervention. * **COT (22 Apr)** – Funds **net-long EUR / net-short JPY** → structural tail-wind. (
Long
by wojoforex
2
EURJPYEUR/JPY Rate Differential and Fundamental Outlook for May 2025 Interest Rate Differential ECB Main Refinancing Rate: 2.40% (after a 25 bps cut in April 2025). BoJ Policy Rate: 0.50% (held steady in May 2025). Rate Differential: 1.90 percentage points (EUR yield advantage). This gap supports EUR/JPY upside, but the ECB’s easing bias and BoJ’s cautious stance suggest potential narrowing later in 2025. Key May 2025 Fundamental Drivers Eurozone (EUR) GDP Growth: Eurozone GDP grew 0.4% QoQ in Q1 2025, with Germany expanding 0.2%. Resilient growth reduces urgency for aggressive ECB easing but does not halt the dovish trajectory. ECB Policy Outlook: Markets price in a 25 bps ECB rate cut in June, with further easing expected in 2025. ECB remains data-dependent amid trade tensions and moderating inflation (2.1% in Germany, 0.8% in France). Japan (JPY) BoJ Policy Stagnation: BoJ kept rates at 0.50% in May, citing risks from U.S. tariffs and downgrading 2025 GDP growth to 0.5%. Core CPI forecasts trimmed to 2.2% for 2025 and 1.7% for 2026, delaying hawkish shifts. Trade War Risks: U.S.-China trade de-escalation optimism reduces JPY’s safe-haven appeal, but Japan’s export reliance keeps growth vulnerable. Global Factors Risk Sentiment: Easing U.S.-China tensions favor risk-on flows, weakening JPY. Fed Policy: Delayed Fed cuts (4.50% rate) bolster USD, indirectly pressuring EUR/JPY via EUR/USD dynamics ECB Rate Cuts (Expected) Bearish for EUR (narrows rate gap) BoJ Dovish Hold Limits JPY strength, supports EUR/JPY upside Eurozone Growth Resilience Mild EUR support, delays aggressive ECB easing Trade Optimism Risk-on sentiment weakens JPY, bullish for EUR/JPY Japan’s Growth Downgrade JPY weakness on economic concerns Base Case: EUR/JPY likely trades with a moderate bullish bias in May, supported by The still-significant rate differential (1.90%). Risk-on flows amid trade de-escalation. BoJ’s growth and inflation downgrades limiting JPY strength. Downside Risks: Surprise ECB dovish rhetoric or faster-than-expected rate cuts. Escalation in U.S.-Japan/EU trade tensions reviving JPY safe-haven demand. Summary The 1.90% rate differential and improving risk sentiment favor EUR/JPY gains in May, but the ECB’s easing trajectory and Japan’s structural challenges create volatility. Traders should monitor: ECB June Policy Signals (potential 25 bps cut). Eurozone Inflation Data (May 30–31). BoJ Rhetoric on tariffs and growth. While near-term upside persists, the pair’s longer-term outlook remains bearish as ECB cuts erode the rate advantage.
Short
by Shavyfxhub