EURNOK trade ideas
Care your longs, consolidation and pull back is possibleWhile I precisely saw the major bullish divergence around 8,85 low, I missed this bullish reversal and breakout trade. (I traded EURCAD long instead). But some people may still have bullish position, so I thought I share my view and a few warning signals.
Daily:
- Ichimoku is bullish. In fact it is "too bullish", price is far above 9,0150 equilibrium, marked by Kijun and forward Senkou B -> overbought condition, market should consolidate and let averages catch up, or pull back a bit towards equilibrium.
- Heikin-Ashi is bullish, but it's already clear that haDelta and haOscillator have started to build some short term negative divergence. haOscillator is below central line.
- Possible short term bearish wedge pattern is forming, as the price increase was very agressive from the lows.
- EWO is bullish, but it might print a double top in value
- MACD is bullish, with lines slowly converging
4H:
No more additional info here, just to see more precisely the supports:
9,1865 / 9,14 - 9,1560 / 9,10
Startegy: If you are long, sell covered calls and/or reduce some of your bullish exposure in 9,21-9,25 zone
EU Losing MomentumEU have had a good run lately, but it seems over, for now at least. EURNOK is a bit special to me. Won a lot, lost a bit, yet, I keep fixating on it because of the large swings and very clear formations it makes. Finally it has come to a point when it is either breaking out short or consolidating. Looking at the past six days, it couldn't make new tops, it's sliding downwards. To add on that, short-term MACD, RSI and mid-term Stochastic seems to agree on most charts, that it's going downwards.
EURNOK New BreakoutA breakout just happened on this pair. I'm only in for a small amount, because EUR has released strong numbers and volume isn't strong. It have been building up cash for over a weak now. But it's a solid breakout, with an exhausted candle yesterday. There is always the chance it might pull back a bit, in US market open, so you could wait. If RSI is diving under 25.0000 I might add to my short position.
Indicators show positive divergence -> reduce short positions- Ichimoku setup is bearish. Support zone is 8,94-8,98
- Heikin-Ashi has an interesting message: candle is still bearish without upper wick, buthaDelta and haOscillator both show positive divergence. haOscillator is also above its mid line. These may be early signals of possible momentum loss and start of consolidation / pull back. It is wise to reduce shorts if you have, but no need to cut it all.
- MACD histogram is ticking higher too
Try to re-sell (or sell more) in case of retracement to 8,94+