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Euro / Norwegian Krone

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EURNOK trade ideas

A short set up on the EUR/NOK.A Cup and Handle pattern formed from the highs of December 2008. The black horizontal level at 9.15202 provided strong resistance early to mid 2009 (red arrows), it came back into play December 2014 and January 2015 (red arrow) again providing strong resistance. From September 2015 until the end of the year that level became strong support (green arrow). A broadening formation from september 2012 has also formed and January of this year we failed to reach the upper trendline before heading back towards the lower trendline as well as the 9.15202 area where the last green arrow is placed. The high probability trade would be to enter short close to the red dotted upper channel trendline and close on the support level at 9.15202 or there abouts.
Short
by BitterSweetMarkets
Undecision before Norges Bank meetingWeekly: - Major bullish trend and bullish Ichimoku setup - Price pulled back to Kijun Sen, but could not stay below. - Heikin-Ashi candle shows undecision at Kijun Sen. haDelta still below zero, but crossed above SMA3 Daily: - Trendline and bearish Kumo break, but no follow through! Lot of noise at lower side of Kumo during last 6 days. - Ichimoku setup shd be considered neutral, maybe with slight bearish bias. Chikou Span is also in past Kumo. - Heikin-Ashi: haDelta/SMA3 at zero --> neutral. Oscillator green --> bullish bias. Candles --> too much noise, even with this noise filter. - EWO is still bearish Oil started some pull back, and that correction itself puts some pressure on NOK and CAD again. However the major factor this week is the rate setting of Norges Bank on 17/March. Market has priced in some cuts. If Norges keeps on hold and/or gives less dovish comments, then EURNOK may break lower.
by Kumowizard
1
#EURNOK: High Probability Move To The Downside Likely! #ForexTraders, Bearish momentum visible here after we hit some decent technical levels. Really good opportunity to jump in shorts into continuation with a high probability bear move. This could also be part of a longer term down move correction. We could see moves towards the mean price from here, but we will see over time. ---Interested in joining my professional signals group? Message me here on Trading view or email me with the email address on my Trading view profile page--- Best of luck, Tom
Short
by TomProTrader
EUR/NOK holds tight supports, macros and hedging perspectivesOff-late crude has slight strength in price rises but in a broader perspectives, NOK continues to trade poorly driven by crude prices as the skepticism lingers around the commodity , EUR/NOK from yesterday seems like taking U turn to retest the year's high above 9.7400. Oil prices dictate the short-term moves in NOK, but the longer-term NOK outlook will depend on the lasting effects of lower oil prices to domestic drivers. NOK is down nearly 30% in import-weighted terms since early 2013. Ongoing NOK depreciation continues to underpin inflation (possibly it is the only factor underpinning inflation) though slower growth and lower domestic demand may drag prices lower once the FX effect starts to wane. Nevertheless, the size of the hit to NOK looks exaggerated given Norway's strong fiscal position and capacity to support domestic growth. Technically, EUR/NOK from yesterday seems like taking U turn to retest the year's high above 9.7400, RSI signals buy as we see the bullish convergence, while stochastic favours bulls as it displays the %K crossover at oversold region, intraday sentiments have been bullish bias as it is holding stronger support at 9.4464 levels. So to hedge NOK's uncertain trend, here goes the strategy: 2M (0.5%) in the money 0.66 delta calls and 1M (1%) out of the money calls with positive theta and prefer delta close zero. This debit spread is preferred on a slight sceptic bullish attitude, the ideal situation for such diagonal bull call spread buyer is when EURSEK price to remain unchanged or slowly creep up but certainly not beyond 1% within next 1 month and there onwards spikes up & beyond the strike price of the call sold. In this scenario, as soon as the short call expires worthless, the options trader can write another slightly OTM call and repeat this process every month until expiration of the longer term call to reduce the cost of the trade. It may even be possible at some point in time to own the long term call "for free".
Long
by FxWirePro
A better "Oil trade" than Oil itselfNorway depends a lot on Oil price and even more on the Oil industry! However it is still one of the real 'AAA' rated countries, with virtually no debt, and 0,75 % base rate. NOK has suffered a lot during last 2 years, being the worst performing G10 ccy. Weakness had its consequences: they have higher and increasing CPI, which makes Norges Bank less likely to cut rates further. So if someone would like to bet on Oil mkt recovery, buying NOK (selling EURNOK or maybe USDNOK) can be a lot better choice than buying Oil futures contracts or Oil ETFs. Why? Simply because it EURNOK or USDNOK shorts you still have a minor POSITIVE carry if you hold, while rolling Oil longs can be very painful every month! Recent front end contract contango on Oil curve is ard 2 USD+ between every month, which is a massive negative carry risk. Also you can be sure that Draghi will try to do "Whatever it takes", or at least communicate that way. Do you think the FED will not re-join this game? I think they will. One can ask OK, but what happens if the otherwise really prudent and reliable Norgesbank alos joins ccy war? Well, never say never, any central banker can go crazy, but look at what has happened to Sweden? Riksbank cut to negative, doing QE and SEK is still performing quite well. Efficiency of Central Bankers idiotism is reaching its absolute limits, you always have to look at things on relative value basis. Weekly: - Ichimoku is bullish, but price reached trend channel top few weeks ago. - Heikin-Ashi is turning counter bearish. (candle, haDelta/SMA3, Oscillator). Below 9,42 it would break the wedge and Kijun Sen. Did it make a double top? If that gets confirmation Price tgt will be 9,10-9,15 area - EWO negative divergence. Daily: - Ichimoku turned neutral: Price in Kumo cloud and below Kijun Sen. Watch if Senkou lines make a bearish cross 26 days ahead! - Heikin-Ashi is bearish. haDelta/SMA3 cross down below zero. - EWO is down to zero -> watch if turns bearish. KEY LEVEL 9,40+! p.s.: I hold decent short position.
Short
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - 2H - SharkFirst potential setup for the week ahead. I think its likly that will come up further. The real question is whether or not we will make it all the way up. Sometimes sharks still tend to reverse at the 786 cypher reversal zone - but the risk reward wouldnt be that great if youd enter at the 786 straight away with all that upside reversal potential a shark has. but ofc i will watch for doubletops on lower timeframes even in the 78.6 area as well as the 88.6 area to maybe catch the reversal if its happing before my prevered PRZ-zone
Short
by SergeantPringles
Bullish picture, but limited upside from here.First of all I marked this post as "SHORT", but I don't mean this market is strategic bearish. I'd rather like to point to a possible top and a pull back. Weekly: - Bullish Ichimoku, but price far above equilibrium (Kijun and Senkou B lines), and also reached possible channel top - Heikin-Ashi is bullish, need to check candle body size at the end of the week. - EWO bullish, but probably building some negative divergence --> in case it won't make a higher print from here. Daily: - Bullish Ichimoku with Price far above Kijun Sen. Kijun started to catch up. Supports are at 9,60 / 9,47 / 9,40. - Heikin-Ashi may signal momentum loss today --> watch haDelta/SMA3 which already signals some weakness compared to price. - Price trades within two possible bearish wedges. The shorter one has become very tight. The longer "wedge" lines converge very slowly, with a possible resistance ard 9,80, which means unless Oil immediately collapses to 20 USD, Bulls have very limited upside here in EURNOK longs. Especially that NOK has been the worst performer G10 for the last 1,5-2 years. Should we see some rebound in Oil, risk correction in general, and as technical condition Price break below 9,60, then EURNOK has chance to show correction down to 9,40-9,47 area.
Short
by Kumowizard
1
Sell at range top.Weekly: - Trend and Ichimoku setup is still bullish - Heiki-Ashi (candle and haDelta) shows slowdown in bullish momentum. - Possible bearish divergence in EWO Daily: - Ichimoku setup is bullish biased, but should be considered as neutral until Price doesn't make a clear higher high or lower low around the Kumo. Therefor I think this pair is and stuck and will likely stay in 9,15-9,60 wider range. - Heikin Ashi shows consolidation at range top, a pull back is possible. haDelta has serious negative divergence, crosses down but stuck around zero line. Oscillator is bearish. - I still think we'll see a retracement to 9,35 equilibrium, especially if Oil recovers a bit more.
Short
by Kumowizard
Brent, CPI, Norges, 9,60 refused -> GOTO 9,35- Brent Oil is still under heavy selling pressure. This and previous general Euro buying caused a sharp spike from 9,20 to 9,60 in EURNOK. - However NOK Bears could not push the price above 9,58-9,60 key resistance since 8/Dec. Seven failed attempts. - Norwegian CPI last week was higher than expected despite falling oil prices. - Market believed in a Norges Bank rate cut with 50-50 chance, but Norges kept its benchmar on hold at 0,75 %. For me it was not surprising at all, given the fact ECB was less dovish and the above mentioned CPI number. Tech: - Ichimoku bullish biased, but bullish Kumo breakout missed textbook confirmation, as price did not make a higher high above 9,60 prev resistance. - The pair faced heavy selling after Norges decision today. Price is down -1,4 % as bulls unwinding positions. Price reaching Tenkan Sen. We had 5 candles showing undecision and choppy trading in a wide range of 9,43-9,59. Today Heikin-Ashi candle has huge upper and lower wicks again, but this time a red body! haDelta/SMA3 however may dip below zero line. -> Turning bearish! - Pull back on its way, with possible initial tgt to 9,30-9,35. If you want to enter swing short, do not rush, as this G10 pair has been trading like a wild EM cross! Try to catch spikes to 9,48-9,52.
Short
by Kumowizard