EURNOK trade ideas
EURNOKWhere are we going now ?
Wait and see, if up short if down long - i would not take a trade in the middle of nowhere
Trade your plan, if you don't have avoid trading
(Warning. I am a private trader. I don't sell any signals, equipment or other sources of learning about forex . I am here to share ideas based on technical analysis to improve me on Forex practice. Trading forex is dangerous and can result in significant financial losses. So I am not responsible when the results of the positions to be taken on the basis of my charts since these constitute no basic signals but simply my own market analysis. As i always says, trade your plan and if you don't have any, avoid trading.)
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EURNOKBreak or not break the triangle
Here is the price on extension if goes to (let see)
Wait and see
Trade your plan - if you dont have any, avoid to trade - stay safe
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Update status
EURNOK triangleQuite a solid symmetrical triangle forming here and getting very close to the apex.
Profit targets based on previous structure. (Zoom out to see lower target structure.)
Trade a close outside the triangle.
A short set up on the EUR/NOK.A Cup and Handle pattern formed from the highs of December 2008. The black horizontal level at 9.15202 provided strong resistance early to mid 2009 (red arrows), it came back into play December 2014 and January 2015 (red arrow) again providing strong resistance. From September 2015 until the end of the year that level became strong support (green arrow). A broadening formation from september 2012 has also formed and January of this year we failed to reach the upper trendline before heading back towards the lower trendline as well as the 9.15202 area where the last green arrow is placed. The high probability trade would be to enter short close to the red dotted upper channel trendline and close on the support level at 9.15202 or there abouts.
Undecision before Norges Bank meetingWeekly:
- Major bullish trend and bullish Ichimoku setup
- Price pulled back to Kijun Sen, but could not stay below.
- Heikin-Ashi candle shows undecision at Kijun Sen. haDelta still below zero, but crossed above SMA3
Daily:
- Trendline and bearish Kumo break, but no follow through! Lot of noise at lower side of Kumo during last 6 days.
- Ichimoku setup shd be considered neutral, maybe with slight bearish bias. Chikou Span is also in past Kumo.
- Heikin-Ashi: haDelta/SMA3 at zero --> neutral. Oscillator green --> bullish bias. Candles --> too much noise, even with this noise filter.
- EWO is still bearish
Oil started some pull back, and that correction itself puts some pressure on NOK and CAD again. However the major factor this week is the rate setting of Norges Bank on 17/March. Market has priced in some cuts. If Norges keeps on hold and/or gives less dovish comments, then EURNOK may break lower.
$EURNOK Wolfe Wave Completion, 1-4 Target LineIn the daily time frame. EURNOK formed a Wolfe Wave. I am a bit late on this one but it is till a nice setup to enter a short and exit at the 1-4 line.
WAITING to go long...that's my way
if the price breaks up the red triangle, could go UP inside the green one
if it breaks down, invalidate my setup
putting an alarm and going surf, pretty good REAL waves around here this week =))
BUY NOW - RSI @ OVERSOLD LEVELLONG TRADE :
Entry : BUY @ 9.3330
Target : 9.7000
Stop : 9.2000
Risk Level : LOW
RR ratio : 1:3
EURNOK SELLNice tops and price turn down. but lower is big trend 9.478 wait and see how price behaves there
#EURNOK: High Probability Move To The Downside Likely! #ForexTraders,
Bearish momentum visible here after we hit some decent technical levels. Really good opportunity to jump in shorts into continuation with a high probability bear move. This could also be part of a longer term down move correction. We could see moves towards the mean price from here, but we will see over time.
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Best of luck,
Tom
Ready to go?No more comment. The chart and the marks by ellipses tell everything.
In case of break, short term targets are 9,20 and 9,05.
EURNOK - RSI divergence for long tradeThe EURNOK pair is supported by level 9.445. This support combined with the RSI divergence suggests that we may see a bullish phase towards 9.6 then 9.7.
For a long trade, we may either wait for a small retracement towards the support area or directly launch the long. Stop loss would be just below the support area, though beware of wicks and higher spread on such pair.
BUY BUY BUY - LOW RISK TRADELONG TRADE :
Entry : BUY @ 9.4600
Target : 9.7390
Stop : 9.3675
Risk Level : LOW
RR ratio : 1:3
going long if it breaks the down trend linei dont know wtf is EURNOK but for me it looks like its going UP next week, if it breaks the down trend line, of course!
I use only MANUAL S/L if it CLOSES.
the green line is the initial target, i'm just watching this thing to see how it goes the next week
have a nice weekend my friends! i have been busy trading IBOVESPA futures, but next month i will focus more in FOREX
EUR/NOK holds tight supports, macros and hedging perspectivesOff-late crude has slight strength in price rises but in a broader perspectives, NOK continues to trade poorly driven by crude prices as the skepticism lingers around the commodity , EUR/NOK from yesterday seems like taking U turn to retest the year's high above 9.7400.
Oil prices dictate the short-term moves in NOK, but the longer-term NOK outlook will depend on the lasting effects of lower oil prices to domestic drivers. NOK is down nearly 30% in import-weighted terms since early 2013.
Ongoing NOK depreciation continues to underpin inflation (possibly it is the only factor underpinning inflation) though slower growth and lower domestic demand may drag prices lower once the FX effect starts to wane. Nevertheless, the size of the hit to NOK looks exaggerated given Norway's strong fiscal position and capacity to support domestic growth.
Technically, EUR/NOK from yesterday seems like taking U turn to retest the year's high above 9.7400, RSI signals buy as we see the bullish convergence, while stochastic favours bulls as it displays the %K crossover at oversold region, intraday sentiments have been bullish bias as it is holding stronger support at 9.4464 levels.
So to hedge NOK's uncertain trend, here goes the strategy: 2M (0.5%) in the money 0.66 delta calls and 1M (1%) out of the money calls with positive theta and prefer delta close zero.
This debit spread is preferred on a slight sceptic bullish attitude, the ideal situation for such diagonal bull call spread buyer is when EURSEK price to remain unchanged or slowly creep up but certainly not beyond 1% within next 1 month and there onwards spikes up & beyond the strike price of the call sold.
In this scenario, as soon as the short call expires worthless, the options trader can write another slightly OTM call and repeat this process every month until expiration of the longer term call to reduce the cost of the trade. It may even be possible at some point in time to own the long term call "for free".
A better "Oil trade" than Oil itselfNorway depends a lot on Oil price and even more on the Oil industry! However it is still one of the real 'AAA' rated countries, with virtually no debt, and 0,75 % base rate. NOK has suffered a lot during last 2 years, being the worst performing G10 ccy. Weakness had its consequences: they have higher and increasing CPI, which makes Norges Bank less likely to cut rates further.
So if someone would like to bet on Oil mkt recovery, buying NOK (selling EURNOK or maybe USDNOK) can be a lot better choice than buying Oil futures contracts or Oil ETFs. Why? Simply because it EURNOK or USDNOK shorts you still have a minor POSITIVE carry if you hold, while rolling Oil longs can be very painful every month! Recent front end contract contango on Oil curve is ard 2 USD+ between every month, which is a massive negative carry risk.
Also you can be sure that Draghi will try to do "Whatever it takes", or at least communicate that way. Do you think the FED will not re-join this game? I think they will.
One can ask OK, but what happens if the otherwise really prudent and reliable Norgesbank alos joins ccy war? Well, never say never, any central banker can go crazy, but look at what has happened to Sweden? Riksbank cut to negative, doing QE and SEK is still performing quite well.
Efficiency of Central Bankers idiotism is reaching its absolute limits, you always have to look at things on relative value basis.
Weekly:
- Ichimoku is bullish, but price reached trend channel top few weeks ago.
- Heikin-Ashi is turning counter bearish. (candle, haDelta/SMA3, Oscillator). Below 9,42 it would break the wedge and Kijun Sen. Did it make a double top? If that gets confirmation Price tgt will be 9,10-9,15 area
- EWO negative divergence.
Daily:
- Ichimoku turned neutral: Price in Kumo cloud and below Kijun Sen. Watch if Senkou lines make a bearish cross 26 days ahead!
- Heikin-Ashi is bearish. haDelta/SMA3 cross down below zero.
- EWO is down to zero -> watch if turns bearish.
KEY LEVEL 9,40+!
p.s.: I hold decent short position.
EURNOK 15m 1month bottom of range bouncing supportBuying on the bottom of the range near a support area, betting on the price bouncing back to the reversal zone
EURNOK - 2H - SharkFirst potential setup for the week ahead. I think its likly that will come up further. The real question is whether or not we will make it all the way up. Sometimes sharks still tend to reverse at the 786 cypher reversal zone - but the risk reward wouldnt be that great if youd enter at the 786 straight away with all that upside reversal potential a shark has.
but ofc i will watch for doubletops on lower timeframes even in the 78.6 area as well as the 88.6 area to maybe catch the reversal if its happing before my prevered PRZ-zone
Bullish picture, but limited upside from here.First of all I marked this post as "SHORT", but I don't mean this market is strategic bearish. I'd rather like to point to a possible top and a pull back.
Weekly:
- Bullish Ichimoku, but price far above equilibrium (Kijun and Senkou B lines), and also reached possible channel top
- Heikin-Ashi is bullish, need to check candle body size at the end of the week.
- EWO bullish, but probably building some negative divergence --> in case it won't make a higher print from here.
Daily:
- Bullish Ichimoku with Price far above Kijun Sen. Kijun started to catch up. Supports are at 9,60 / 9,47 / 9,40.
- Heikin-Ashi may signal momentum loss today --> watch haDelta/SMA3 which already signals some weakness compared to price.
- Price trades within two possible bearish wedges. The shorter one has become very tight. The longer "wedge" lines converge very slowly, with a possible resistance ard 9,80, which means unless Oil immediately collapses to 20 USD, Bulls have very limited upside here in EURNOK longs. Especially that NOK has been the worst performer G10 for the last 1,5-2 years.
Should we see some rebound in Oil, risk correction in general, and as technical condition Price break below 9,60, then EURNOK has chance to show correction down to 9,40-9,47 area.
