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Euro / Norwegian Krone

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EURNOK trade ideas

EURNOK - Make it or break it. Hesitation at the crossroadsWell, this week or the next we should see the fate of NOK. Actually I think this week Norges Bank will determine the fate of their ccy. EURNOK got very close to a major inflection point. A make it or break it time is ahead of the pair. Weekly: - Price has reached a multiple support/resistance zone: bullish trendline, Kumo, 100 WMA, and horizontal key supp/res area is below the Price. Chikou Span hits past candles. This is a very strong resistance now, so if by any reason Price breaks it finally, the selling will be dramatic. - Heikin Ashi candles: last week candle is interesting as it had a lower wick, but finally an inside body. This means by the end of last week the selling pressure has eased a lot. Therefor haDelta/SMA3 crossed up (still below zero line). This week's candle has very little information so far. Daily: - Price started some wider range consolidation below bearish supports. It is still trading below Kijun Sen after it has tested the 26 days average twice. It looks like in short term the 9,53-9,57 area is a strong support, but 8,35-8,40 is also a strong resistance (not surprsing looking at the weekly chart's crossroads there) - Heikin Ashi signal right now suggests Price will try to dip again a bit, but for a sustainable bearish move it should have a stronger bearish momentum. The thing is simple now. Based on the daily chart setup, it is better risk reward to sell the range top and size shorts up a bit below 8,43, then trail your stops. It is a good strategy unless Norges Bank joins the global CB idiotism and starts to cut base rate, as in that case EURNOK would spike up above 8,55 and 8,61, which would be a bullish reversal for the pair. Please note that 8,61 is also the weekly Tenkan Sen, so that level would trigger a lot of buying. If Norges Bank realises what European bond investors have already started to realise (that is the pricing out of the global long term deflation fears and trades), then they will not be idiot to act behind the curve and they will leave the base rate unchanged.
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - Sell again, stay with the trend!Weekly: - Price is reaching an extremely important zone 8,35-8,38. If Price ever breaks below this zone, the long term picture would change to strategic bearish - Ichimoku setup right now is neutral, with bearish bias. Daily: - Ichimoku setup is bearish, all average lines point down, Chikou Span is in open space - Price retested 8,50-8,55 bearish support zone. Given that previously this area acted as strong resistance, now we should assume it will be a strong support. - Heikin Ashi candle on Friday was a doji with haDelta crossing back below its SMA3. That was an early signal about the possible end of the pull back. Today HA cabdle is red, so from now we have to assume a bearish move will continue from here. Increase your short exposure again! I did it already.
Short
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - Question of time? Range and tightenning triangleWeekly: - Ichimoku setup is hard to read a bit. All in all it is rather neutral: Price is still above Kumo, but below Kijun and Senkou B (9,00). Chikou Span will hit Price candles within a few weeks. Strategic bearish reversal could take place only below 8,45. - Heikin Ashi candle pattern shows a pull back (correction) for the last five weeks. Watch this week's candle if it can close above Tenkan Sen or gives any sign of bearish reversal. Daily: - Ichimoku setup is neutral. Price, Tenkan and Kijun are all in the Kumo, and all stay at same level, which means Price is at equilibrium. - Heikin Ashi candles yesterday and today signal a pause in the mini bullish momentum or maybe even a possible reversal to bearish soon. Price is not just stuck around the averages, but also within a tightenning triangle. If the triangle and the Kumo breaks on the lower side at 8,60, then we will see an attack of the 8,55 resistance. Below that space would be open to 8,45. 4H: - Ichimoku setup is turning to bearish from neutral. - Heikin Ashi signal is bearish. Supp/res levels are 8,65 / 8,60 / 8,55
Short
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - Update / Reached lower resistance againWeekly: - Ichimoku setup is neutral/weak bearish - Heikin Ashi candle turns red again, weekly haDelta/SMA3 crosses down. We should see bigger candle body and on back of that haDelta to go deeper below zero line for more bearish action - 8,35-8,45 weekly support zone is in focus now Daily: - Slowly drifed lower after the spike to Kumo. Ichimoku setup is about to turn stronger bearish: possible strong bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross is forming, Chikou Span may give a strong bearish cross below past candles as well. For more bearish acceleration Price should finally break the 8,53-8,57 resistance zone - Heikin Ashi setup suggests more bearish action ahead: candles are red with no upper wicks, haDelta/SMA3 has a chance to make a bearish cross again below zero line, which would be a stronger confirmation. The key lvl in short term is 8,53! If it breaks, it will drop quickly, if it holds, we see more sideaway consolidation in 8,55 - 8,75 range.
Short
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - Norges Bank kicks Bulls' balls todayRate cut, rate cut, rate cut, rate cut everywhere! This is the new monetary policy phenomenon, the ultimate perpetum mobile! In fact since 2008 there was one rate cut by every third trading day!!! Central Banks lost their mind, heating ccy war further... except one! It looks like Norges Banks is the only one left, thinking that rapeing the financial mkts may be useless and more dangerous in the long run. Maybe they are the only one, who see there is NO DEFLATION RISK in reality. I hope they will keep this prudent long term view, and will not join this stupid global experiment of how to blow the biggest bubble ever in history. Not much to add to this chart. It looked really scary for 3-4 days, as everybody thought Norges will follow the idiot neighbour Riksbank in agressive rate cut. Eventually EURNOK and USDNOK bulls are kicked badly. The pair is down 3 % today. Time to watch 8,50 +/- support area! Also time to watch Brent Oil, as in case Oil reverses again that will fuel NOK gains further. I keep my strategic short. (some of that was stopped in last few days, I re-opened today after the rate decision)
Short
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - The last one to goNOK is the only G10 ccy which has not yet started to perform against EUR. Why is this ccy so much hated? Due to Oil px action? I doubt, as CAD is performing quite well. I rather think people wait for Norges bank decision. But look at EURSEK! What has happened after Riksbank announced rate cut + QE? Initial spike, then collapse, what's more, it has ended in a multi year trendbreak on the weekly chart. I think the same will happen to NOK. Sooner or later it will start to move south as all the other EUR crosses did.Market forces will finally work, and frankly speaking, what the ECB is doing is so stupid, that none of other CB's action could counter that. Daily: - Still sideaway. price touched range top and possible downtrend line. This was also a Kijun Sen retest. - Heikin Ashi candle today suggest a reversal down again. haDelta/SMA3 cross confirms. - Real bearish acceleration would happen below 8,55, with Chikou Span confirming cross below previous low and below Price candles. 4H: - After last attempt to break below the range bottom the course reversed and actually Price even tried to break above the range top. - Short term Heikin Ashi setup is bearish. DMI is turning bearish as well. - Cross below Kijun and Senkou B level could send it down to 8,55 again. The big question is if and when it can go deeper and start trending finally.
Short
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - Hold shorts! Watch range break at 8,55 for continuationDaily: - Ichimoku setup is bearish. Price below Kumo and Kijun Sen. For confirmation we need Price break a bit lower, sending Chikou Span into open space after its bearish break below the past Kumo. - Heikin Ashi has been showing undecision for more than 2 weeks now. Green, red and doji candles changing each after. Today candle is bearish, with haDelta turning down again. We need to see longer body bearish candle and haDelta firm dip below zero line for bearish continuation. - Lower resistance is ard 8,55. A break and close below opens space to minimum 8,4250 (my original bearish tgt), but likely to even lower 4H: - Price is swinging around a thinned Kumo. Range is even more obvious here between 8,55-8,65. We have a medium strong Tenkan/Kijun bearish cross today, and Chikou Span is about to make a strong bearish cross below past Price candles too. (this would be a strong confirmation for more bearish move) - What makes it more likely for bearish continuation is the change in DMI/ADX setup. ADX has been extremely low for some time now, but with today's price action finally the bearish DMI cross has more chance to widen further. - Heikin Ashi setup is obviously more bearish now. For confirmation we should see next candle to close below 8,55. From then on every spike you can add to existing shorts.
Short
by Kumowizard
4
EURNOK - Looks good until 8,40-8,45, hold shortsWeekly: - Short looks good until trades below Kijun Sen and Senkou B - Heiken Ashi supports further bearish move - weekly trend and horizontal support is between 8,40-8,45 Daily: - Bearish Ichimoku setup, Tenkan and Senkou A lines pointing down. - Heiken Ashi turns bearish again with haDelta back below SMA3 and zero line - With next wave down watch Oscillator changing bias to bearish - good chance first resistance ard 8,70 will be cleared in coming days - next resistance (also our short term bearish tgt) is ard 8,45 Things that could support it fundamentally further: more correction in Oil (would be even better together with some USD correction) and more EUR weakness on back of ECB QE spreading to other crosses than only EURUSD. Hold shorts! We'll talk about it again around 8,45.
Short
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - NOK will be the new CHF!!!Norway is AAA rated, they have no debt at all, but they have huge cash reserves in their national funds. The only "problem is" that they are Europe's oil producer country. But its a problem only until Oil starts a correction, or at least stops falling further. Otherwise what is the bigger problem? That Norway's income depends on oil, or if that ECB is ready to blow up the EUR through QE? After SNB released the 1,2000 EURCHF peg, we have a black swan event today. Algos go crazy, mkts are fckd through all kind of CHF crosses. In terms of real economy CEE countries are fckd a bit too with their still existing CHF loans. I think regardless ECB decision, this black swan event may cause further turbulance in risky assets. You have to find some safe haven, and as the USD bull is stretched already a bit, against the EUR I do not see a lot of other opportunites than CAD, or NOK. Technical picture has not changed much since my last post (pls see link below), except a few things: Daily: - Chikou Span is hitting Price candles soon and can easily cross below at some point - yesterday price action suggests there may be some serious strategic EURNOK long position unwinding. That would not be surprising, given the situation in Oil, where we there is an increasing chance for a 15 %+ correction (pls see on the other link below) - Price is already below the level of Senkou Span B (future Kumo bottom line), still needs to clear the 9,00 key supp/resistance 4 Hrs: - Price rejecting Kumo again. In fact it was trading a lot higher today during the crazy one hour after the SNB action, the real candle looks different from the one seen here on Tradingview. The spike top was 9,16, Price quickly bounced back down from there - If Price clears 9,00, Chikou will make a strong bearish cross signal to confirm further price drop. I think if investors start to look for new safe havens, while Oil pops up a bit, EURNOK will collapse as quickly as it was coming up.
Short
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - Should it follow EURSEK?Well it may dip as well, but the situation for NOK is a lot harder than for SEK. The reason is simple: further drop in Oil Price. As Norway is Europe Oil prodicer country and its economy is really dependent on Oil prices, for EURNOK to be able to come lower, Oil Price should show some signs of correction from the heavily oversold levels. Daily: Consolidation after the very extreme moves between 16-22/December. Tenkan and Kijun are a bit confusing as while Tenkan is below Kijun Sen, due to the one day spike Kijun still points up. Chikou Span is hitting Price candles as Price has been moving sideaway in a wide range of 9,00 - 9,21. The Key levels is 9,00. It needs to break below to give sell signals and start moving lower towards 8,55-8,60. As I said above, for the reversal to happen Oil should go corrective up and/or ECB has to deliver QE to weaken EUR 4 Hrs: The picture is neutral on 4 Hrs time frame. Very thin Kumo because of consolidation, all averages are flat (Senkou lines, Kijun, 100 WMA). Actually Price is attacking all flat lines together now from the top side with Slow Stoch Sell signal. Theoretically you can try a short here with stop above 9,20 / tgt at 8,98-9,00.
Short
by Kumowizard
EURNOK after Norges Bank rate cutNorwegian krone sold off heavyly after Norges Bank decided to cut rates by 0,25% to 1,25%. It was fairly suprising move but weaker oil is weighing on Norwegian economy and it seems that the central bank does not want to take any unnecessary risks. Most likely, the highs around 9.13 will not survive and we'll see at least a spike to take out some stops. Capital Properties FX announces „The Santa Deal“ us3.campaign-archive2.com Come and join us!
by capitalpropertiesfx
EURNOK - Still has a chance to attempt a break lowerThis pair has been a bit tricky recently. In fact we can clearly see it is not trending at moment. Daily: Pull back after the sharp spike, followed by a wider range top consolidation. In terms of Ichimoku it has becoming neutral as Future Kumo starts overshade Price and Chikou Span loosing open space, getting close to Price candles again. MACD is bearish, but DMI still bullish. I think we may see a few more days of "sideaway" moves before a clear directional move. Lower Key levels are 8,4250 and 8,3900. Upper key level is 8,5450. As I think Oil is poised to a correction from recent selloff, EURNOK will likely behave as a proxy, and has chance to finally break lower. Btw in recent weeks all macro datas came out from Norway as better than expected, especially GDP and Mainland GDB prints yesterday. I still believe that NOK is the cheapest G10 ccy, and somehow I do not agree it should be the second worse performer this year after JPY. I mean c'mon, you can not even compare the two countries' performance and characteristics. 4 Hrs: Noise within the range. Price is still in the Kumo, what's more Tenkan and Kijun are in trhe Kumo too and ard same level as Senkou A and Senkou B. This all mean it is still absolutely neutral. Right now Price is crossing back below Kijun Sen and DMI is actualy turning to bearish again, but we still don't have a clear direction. As ROC indicators are still pointing down, I resold some this morning again at 8,48, but the real sell should hapen with a clear break below the 8,42-8,4250 key resistance area. Stay focused as when the clear break happens, it will have an excellent risk reward to hold short position.
Short
by Kumowizard
3
EURNOK - Sell after Kijun and Kumo retestNow we have a firming sell signal. After testing the Kijun Sen and the Kumo we have a nice bearish candle, and the trend may break finally. Tgt is 8,2950-8,3000 The other reason to put on this chart is to show some simple new script I placed on ROC indicator. Sometimes I find Slow Stoch less reliable and giving some false or confusing signals on the 4 Hrs time frame, so I try to replace it with this ROC combo. Upper panel is 71 period ROC vs its 76 period EMA, the lower panel is 91 period ROC vs its 58 period EMA. Basic rule is that you can take trade signals in a direction when both ROC/EMA stays same way and you have a Tenkan/Kijun cross too. You can still decide wether you take weak Tenkan/Kijun signals, or if you wait for further confirmation or stronger signal, like a Kumo breakout. Still, if you had long, when ROCs crossed their EMAs and Tenkan crossed back below Kijun, it was a signal for decreasing momentum and to reduce/close bullish position. The importance of the "zero" line is the same, when ROC is below the momentum is increasing bearish, when it is above, then increasing bullish. This simple strategy is being tested, I hope it will give even better indication about momentum changes than Slow Stoch itself. Don't forget, the main trading strategy will be still based on Ichimoku system.
Short
by Kumowizard
1
Comeback for EURNOK?The NOK has depreciated rapidly in the past week on the back of weaker data and falling oil prices. The market is now pricing in a roughly 50/50 chance of Norges Bank cutting its policy rate at the December meeting. All things are possible, but this seems over the top. The NOK is much weaker than Norges Bank assumed in September and banks have cut their mortgage rates. On the other hand, global interest rates have fallen and growth has been slightly weaker than expected. On balance, though, Norges Bank would need to revise down its growth projections for mainland GDP next year from 2.25% in September towards 1% for current market expectations to be justified and we think that is really pushing it. With inflation close to target, house prices rising and unemployment largely unchanged, it also seems unlikely that Norges Bank will be proactive and cut interest rates in anticipation. The slide in the NOK therefore seems to be an overreaction. Trading Idea: Short on bounces up against 8.48-8.55 with a target price of 8,15. Stop loss if we close above 8.55 on weekly timeframe.
Short
by ACROFX
EURNOK - Is this the big "come back"?Despite all the very strong fundamentals, NOK has been beaten badly during last few weeks... just because some considered this pair as a perfect proxy for collapsing Oil. Well, despite Norway has its major income from Oil production and export, I don't think it was so reasonable to hit this ccy that much, while for example CAD was rather stable. Weekly (right panel): What was very important for last week, to avoid a major horizontal break of 8,5450-8,5550 support area until weekend. EURNOK spiked at extreme 8,67, but within two days it dropped sharply back below the Key support, and resulted in a huge hanging man candle. From this we can expect a pull back down to the weekly Kumo, but until Price is above the cloud and the trendline (8,20 will be the most important level), the picture is still bullish biased. Daily: Extreme moves, extreme ATR (volatility), which will likely stay high. MACD and Slow Stoch sell signals together, Price is just attacking the secunder bullish trendline and Kijun Sen. Whenever it manages to break, the move will continue down to next key level at 8,29. 4 Hrs: Price is about to break trend and Kumo, also DMI is giving a bearish signal. It will be a good counter trend short from now, but given the oversold Slow Stoch, first I'd really like to see the break, second I'd would wait for some pullbacks to 8,45+ leves to enter in case. As I said, volatility is very high, so adjust your trading size and stops accordingly.
Short
by Kumowizard
1
EURNOK - Triple topThe weekly shows a very bearish formation at 8.5. The impulse is still green, but using the daily, I would say it's time to short Now looking at the daily, it's time to play in anticipation. Look at the candle that formed two days ago, that kangaroo tail. It is very bearish. Looking back on the chart, the accuracy of candlesticks is not great, but considering where this kangaroo tail is, I believe a short bet should be taken. I have closed my remaining position (entry in the linked chart section) and I have gone short, with a small position. I will add once the weekly impulse becomes blue. As for targets, well I believe the least we'll see is 8.0. The question is if this pair can go below that. My trade plan is to keep adding to my short, and once we get close to 8.0, I will start taking profits, and leave maximum 50% on the table. If I will see a buying signal developing there, I will not hesitate to go long. If it breaks, I will consider adding back to my short. Let's wait for 8.0!
Short
by vlad.adrian
4