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AEX: longer-term it won't end well!Hi traders, The chart shows what I am thinking right now. I was not going to post anymore analyses because I felt they were not appreciated (just by looking at the likes and follows). However, I felt like I needed to share this just to see if I am onto something and not totally crazy. :) I knew this upmove was coming and I am expecting AEX 615 for some time now. You can read this in some previous analyses (check the comments as well) which I have added below this analysis. However, when THE TOP would arrive, was not clear yet (I expected it to come sooner in June/July). With this chart, I shine some light on a very probable date (give it some days deviation) to top this 'man made' market. A little piece wisdom: keep an eye on tech because this market is insane! Even more insane than the year 2000 if you ask me! When the tech stocks 'say' it is over, than it is over... I use my cycles and signal system (which I trade the AEX/FTI with as well) to see when and where this bearmarket move up is done. For the AEX I check ASML and it is still not done. ±365 seems to be the next target to the upside. Enjoy! And please leave a like and/or follow me if you think this content is useful. Also feel free to leave a comment and start a conversation. :) Shalom, Im Disclaimer: think for yourself and search for the truth.
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by ImmanuelKoning
14
AEX : great movement on the way Hello everyone, this weekend I took a moment to take a good look at the bigger picture again, it is clear that there is a clear resistance line at the top with 3 tangent points and at the bottom a support line with 3 tangent points. This pattern indicates an ascending wedge indicating the end of a rise in an outbreak down. At the top it is now around 583 it could be broken this gives a very strong bullish signal. Space is shrinking this week, so I expect a lot of movement, nervousness especially given the expiration of options next Friday. It is important to keep an eye on the resistance line / support line! Here are 2 clear trade options: - in case of an outbreak down: target closing gap around 544 (15/06/20) - in the event of an outbreak upwards: target closing gap 613 (21/02/20!) SO: be patient and wait for an outbreak !! Good luck traders! Regards, TT
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by TA-Vision
AEX: double top with consequencesHi everyone, Tuesday an attempt was made to break through the previous summit of 472. This did not work, there is now a double top which is a negative development, yesterday we also fell on the hour chart by the MA50, a sales signal for me. I now focus on the following levels 544 (closing gap 15/06/20) and eventually 530. See that there is also a big M pattern in the making, this could have big consequences if the 530 can't hold? but we are not there yet. I give updates regularly, follow this idea when interested. Good luck traders! regards TT
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by TA-Vision
2
AEX: only when MA50 breaks , the downturn be able to continueHi everyone, the bulls are still in control, the scenario of "sell in may" has not been manifested by the MA50 that managed to absorb 2x the decrease (see green arrows). On the other hand, the bulls no longer have any strength to push upwards, this can be seen from the horizontal resistance line in the RSI. So it is a sideways course that can take a while. I only expect further major declines if the MA50 can be broken in the daily chart. There is also a wedge showing an outbreak imminent. This indicates a further decline where it is important to break that MA50. Should the resistance line at the top be broken anyway, the open gap of around 548 can be closed and an eventual overshoot to 560. We have to wait for the outbreak before we can further determine the direction. In a sideways market it is difficult to trade with short positions, make sure that the stoploss is high enough for the longer term or wait for the MA50 to break before we can speak of a downward trend. Good luck traders! Follow this idea, I regularly post updates based on the hourly chart. Regards, TT
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by TA-Vision
4
AEX Bearish VersionLooking at the AEX i chart, this bearish pattern is quite easy to spot. At the previous two tops AEX printed: A high (yellow) Followed by a higher high with a drop to the low of the yellow zone (green) Followed by a retracement to around mid green zone and a big dump (red) Retest of support turned resistance (orange) with a final big dump afterwards. I’m not a big fan of Head and Shoulder patterns but this one is too obvious to ignore. The current pattern we’re in can be drawn in two ways. The one I have and one with the yellow circle as the left shoulder. So obviously this would mean a big drop would happen if this one plays out (I’m not convinced). The AEX is a capitalization-weighted-index with three companies having a total weight of 43,46%(!) of the total index: ASML Holding (semiconductors) Royal Dutch Shell (oil & gas) Unilever (personal products) It’s interesting to watch how these company go through the Corona pandemic. Why is this pattern useful? Invalidation is nearby . If we surpass the green zone it’s likely the ‘corona-low’ is already in and we go for new highs. This is just an idea.
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by arnosv
5
AEX: the bearmarket has begun!Today I am sharing my longer term vision for the worldwide stockmarket. However, since I am a Dutchie, I will use the AEX to show you what I think is coming. I will keep it brief: the crashwave from February and March this year has been the start of (at least) a 2-3 year bearmarket into 2022 I would say... How can I say this? 1. I have seven years experience in analysing and trading the market. I first lost a lot of money to learn the hard way, but later on learned complex technical tools that most do not want to hear about or don't know. Besides this, I found a signal system which gives golden trading opportunities for short term (day) trading. 2. I love time analysis and even more since 2018 when my understanding of cycles and how to calculate 'turn dates' improved A LOT! Since then I have made a lot of weird top and bottom calls which blew my mind everytime... 3. It is NOT NORMAL that a market crashes 38% from an all time high (looking at America, not the AEX). And all in 1 month... 4. We are living in the end time, biblical speaking. We are in the fourth cycle of the last 120th jubilee cycle. Read Leviticus 26 from verse 14 and on to see what I mean. We are seeing pestilence already (Covid-19), famine is following in a lot of countries already and it is estimated that millions of people will starve to death in the coming months and soon we will see the sword (war). YeHoVaH (the God of Abraham, Isaac, Jacob and my God) will make sure that everything will happen according to His will. He wants us to repent of our sins and turn to Him, our Father! He made this very clear by dieing for our sins (Yeshua = Jesus Christ) and come back to life again after three days! All that I am able to do now in the stockmarket, is not because I am good or a genius or whatever, because I am not. YHVH raises up who turns to Him! I am very grateful that He opened my eyes and ears just in time (May 2016)! 5. The FED/ECB/BOJ/whatever can do what they want, but it is not going to work. Everything is created by YeHoVaH and cycles will therefor do what they have to do. For me they are pointing down... Time is more important than price! 6. The move up since March 18 in the AEX and a little later in America, seems to be a bearmarket rally. 7. People have learned, in the last years, that the market will always go up. People don't know how to play a bearmarket when no man can push the market up as we have seen since 2009 (QE1, QE2, QE3 and whatever more the institutions of men tried to do)... The last real bearmarket was 2007 July - 2009 March. The perfect condition to make a lot of new and even 'experienced' people (who do not think for themselves) poor. Really sad... What to do? 1. In 2017 and 2018 I bought some silver Maple Leaf coins. Knowing some 'bad weather' would come. I still think that silver and gold can be a good investment, but the time will tell if these precious metals will go up when the market goes down big. However, in the end, it is better to have some rice to eat when there is famine than silver coins... 2. Play some big waves with out of the money options (50-100 AEX point) with 3-6 months time before expiry date. In a crash wave as we have seen, people that buy their options on time (before the volatility index gets to panic values (30+) will do good business. However, the AEX still has its volatility index (VAEX) still at around 30. Options are still pricy... 3. To not be stuck with options and big volatility values, a turbo/speeder/booster short, can be a way to play the 'big short'. Buy it and let it run its course... 4. Sell the house, I have been saying for years that I forsee a housemarket crash. Go live with the parents or rent something... 5. Take your pension funds and go sit on it or invest it yourself because the companies that are investing for you will waste it in the coming years if you ask me... To end this analysis: 1. What would be a good target to see at the big bottom in the future? I would say the March 2009 low will be realistic... Around 200 AEX that is. 2. Is there a possibility we will still make a new high? I am open to everything and only trade what I see, not what I think. Hard data (signals) are needed for me before I will open a position. The above scenario is my best guess at this moment. 3. Are we near a high before the next drop? I think so yes. Again, hard data and my turn dates will tell the story. Disclaimer: think for yourself, the above is my opinion and cannot be seen as investment advice.
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by ImmanuelKoning
4
AEX : Sell in May and go away ? Hi everyone, the gap of 06/03/20 was finally closed at 528 after which a large decline followed, see here the importance of the improving effect of this level on which large parties were trading. Can we now expect a further major drop? To get a better picture, I first discuss the day chart: after the sideways movement of the month of April, there was only an outbreak upwards in the last few days and this to close the gap, this outbreak does ensure that we are above the MA50 This could now provide support this is important to keep an eye on in the first week, the RSI must also go below 50 to drop further! On Monday it runs around 505. If it breaks, the next target is 482, an old support! Now the hour chart Here we saw a short signal again in the last hours of yesterday, it is important that it now remains below the MA50, I have made a slightly rising trend channel from the sideways movement which now coincides with 505, this is also the level of the MA50 in the daily graph as discussed earlier. See here the importance of this level. Support can still be found here! An overview : There is a short signal in the hour chart to 505 initially, below 505 (MA50) there is also a short signal in the day chart which will give a larger drop initially to 482. Follow this idea for updates! Good luck traders! regards TT
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by TA-Vision
13
AEX : 528 pulls like a magnet Hi everyone, After a weeklong side bump, today a breakthrough to higher levels is visible again. The open gap since 6/03/20 has an attractive effect that I think should be closed for the longer term, this is what the market is now aiming for, the MA50 has managed to stop the declines for the time being, leaving a 2nd short signal . You can also see the parallel lines in the RSI with support and resistors, this shows the strength of the market and it is too big for the time being. A ride to 528 can be done, but pay attention at the top, space is limited! Regards , TT
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by TA-Vision
5