BARCO (BAR) EUNXT Brussel outlook AUG13Following two triangle break-outs, respectively Aug10 and Aug11, Barco (BAR) formed a very visible bullish pennant (confirmed as the 38.2 fib retracement level didn't break). However, BAR was still shy of a first overhead resistance at 17.494 (which originated on the 22nd of July). This resistance got confirmed on the 12th of August, with a first attempt to breach said price level.
BAR is currently trapped in the downward channel that originated between July 6th-July 15th and, given the rejection at 17.494, is tempted to stay in this downward channel for a little while. Two short term support levels will be key: 17.01 (the 38.2 fib retracement of above-mentioned pennant) and 16.90 (resistances of early August). If this support holds true, BAR is likely to attempt to break the early July downward channel. If not, 16.53 is next support.
Short term neutral.
BAR trade ideas
BARCO (BAR) broke 1-month descending trendBarco broke it's 1-month descending trend, with a reversal confirmed around the 16€-mark, clearly tapping into a strong liquidity pool where bears lost against the bulls. The reversal got extra confirmation with 2 easy-to-spot flags (on the 1h and 15m timestamps) that broke upwards resulting in a 6% intraday moonshot.
BAR now poised to break into an older downward channel (first two weeks of July '20). Breaching this, in combination with a breach of the 18€-marker, ought to propel BAR into the 22€-24€-zone.
I expect BAR to find a first strong resistance at the 18.04€ marker, with high probability of temporarily trading sideways in the price zone 16.5-18€.
Support to be found around 16.9€ and 16.5€.
Cautiously buying here. Strategic laddering.
XPloRR MA-Trailing-Stop Strategy on Barco(BAR) beats Buy&HoldLong term MA-Trailing-Stop strategy with Adjustable Signal Strength to beat Buy&Hold strategy
None of the strategies that I tested can beat the long term Buy&Hold strategy. That's the reason why I wrote this strategy (link see below).
Purpose: beat Buy&Hold strategy with around 10 trades over a period of 10 years (average of 1 trade/year). 100% capitalize sold trade into new trade.
My buy strategy is triggered by the fast buy EMA (blue) crossing over the slow buy SMA curve (orange) and the fast buy EMA has a certain up strength.
My sell strategy is triggered by either one of these conditions:
the EMA(6) of the close value is crossing under the trailing stop value (green) or
the fast sell EMA (navy) is crossing under the slow sell SMA curve (red) and the fast sell EMA has a certain down strength.
The trailing stop value (green) is set to a multiple of the ATR(15) value.
ATR(15) is the SMA(15) value of the difference between the high and low values.
The script shows a lot of graphical information:
One green area represents one trade
The close value is shown in light-green. When the close value is lower then the buy value, the close value is shown in light-red. This way it is possible to evaluate the virtual losses during the trade.
the trailing stop value is shown in dark-green. When the sell value at the end of the trade is lower then the buy value, the last color of the trade will be red (best viewed when zoomed)
the EMA and SMA values for both buy and sell signals are shown as a line
the buy and sell(close) signals are labeled in blue
How to use this strategy?
Every stock has it's own "DNA", so first thing to do is tune the right parameters to get the best strategy values voor EMA , SMA, Strength for both buy and sell and the Trailing Stop (#ATR).
Look in the strategy tester overview to optimize the values Percent Profitable and Net Profit (using the strategy settings icon, you can increase/decrease the parameters)
Then keep using these parameters for future buy/sell signals only for that particular stock.
Do the same for other stocks.
Important : optimizing these parameters is no guarantee for future winning trades!
Here are the parameters:
Fast EMA Buy: buy trigger when Fast EMA Buy crosses over the Slow SMA Buy value (use values between 10-20)
Slow SMA Buy: buy trigger when Fast EMA Buy crosses over the Slow SMA Buy value (use values between 30-100)
Minimum Buy Strength: minimum upward trend value of the Fast SMA Buy value (directional coefficient)(use values between 0-120)
Fast EMA Sell: sell trigger when Fast EMA Sell crosses under the Slow SMA Sell value (use values between 10-20)
Slow SMA Sell: sell trigger when Fast EMA Sell crosses under the Slow SMA Sell value (use values between 30-100)
Minimum Sell Strength: minimum downward trend value of the Fast SMA Sell value (directional coefficient)(use values between 0-120)
Trailing Stop (#ATR): the trailing stop value as a multiple of the ATR(15) value (use values between 2-20)
Example for Barco (BAR) (Start capital: 1000, Order=100% of equity, Period 1/1/2005 to now) compared to the Buy&Hold Strategy(=do nothing):
Fast EMA Buy=16
Slow SMA Buy=80
Minimum Buy Strength=44
Fast EMA Sell=12
Slow SMA Sell=45
Minimum Sell Strength=82
Trailing Stop (#ATR)=9
Result: 7 times better than Buy&Hold strategy
NetProfit: 386%
#Trades: 7
%Profitable: 71%
Buy&HoldProfit: 55%