Market index divergence last 3 daysThe past 3 days in particular have been quite divergent among the big four indexes. The past month the only spot I can see where this happened was on Nov 3rd, and it quickly ironed itself out within a day. This one is at 3 days and counting. Healthy markets shouldn't have sustained divergences like this. A day here or there, fine, but this one is worth monitoring. QQQ and SPY doing well, IWM and DIA getting spanked.
DIA trade ideas
DIA (Dow Jones ETF) - Support, Resistance, Trendlines 2021 - DayDIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF) - Support, Resistance, Trendlines - 2021 - Daily Chart:
-Resistance Price Levels (colored horizontal lines above current price)
-Support Price Levels (colored horizontal lines below current price)
-Trendline Resistance (diagonal yellow lines above current price)
-Trendline Support (diagonal yellow lines below current price)
note: chart is on log scale.
*hypothetical* correction vs black swan eventWith a run-of-the-mill correction, I believe the indices will check back to their 200-day moving averages, which for the QQQ, SPY, and DIA are 351.81 (-11.34%), 424.98 (-9.01%), and 344.41 (-5.27%) respectively.
So based on the technicals, the QQQ is the most overstretched, followed by the SPY and then the DIA. The QQQ is susceptible to higher interest rates making certain investors less attracted to the very risky assets. The TVC:US10 has been rising.
Dow Avg Div Yield: 2.23%
SPX Avg Div Yield: 2.00%.
As the 10-yr rises and surpasses 2%, the QQQ will see the worst of it, the SPY the second-worst, and the DIA the least bad.
In the case of a black swan event, god forbid China invades Taiwan, we could see something like this if they checked back to their 200-week moving averages.
QQQ to 239.11 (-39.02%)
SPY to 327.96 (-30.16%)
DIA to 280.97 (-22.71%)
In this instance it would be the same, the most richly-valued tech stocks would feel the brunt of it, the general market (represented by the S&P will take a heavy hit), and the top 30 blue-chip stocks (as decided by Dow Jones) will see something only slightly worse than a 15% correction.
*PURELY HYPOTHETICAL*
Full disclosure, I opened up small positions in SQQQ, SPXS, and SDOW.
DIA Buying opportunity? I’m currently under the interpretation that we should be seeing a “kick back rally.” Not a buy or sell recommendation. For education purposes. Since the wave structure has not been confirmed, I will not be assuming C is going lower on a bigger time frame but is in the back of my mind as a possibility
I am NOW 95 % NET SHORT ACROSS THE INDEXES 1998 TO 2000 FRACTAL IS NEAR ENDED 18.8 to 19.7 months low to peak . I feel that the markets move also match a close 1978 to 1980 structure . . Wave 1 3 and 5 lasted 468 489 and we are now at 442 I maintain this is the ending of the bull phase from the 2192 projection . I have stated a top should be seen 4460 to 4617 focus 4607 . I have had alt targets on my data . and will be posting this sunday . after 2 pm . bull
The Upward Trend of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stock Analysis.The Dow Jones Industrial Average stock has faced a rise by 1.25 points; as a result of the appearance of the continuation pattern of the ascending triangle and the positive data about the ISM Manufacturing PMI released by the Institute of Supply Management which shows an increase than the expected data by 60.4 points. Therefore, the stock is expected to continue in rising till it breaches the resistance line 359.52, on the contrary, if the stock faced a decline it may break the first support line 358.28 to reach the second support line 357 then the third support line 355.68
something to considerHello Everyone :)
something i have been looking into is a very significant relationship in closing price movement from now to the inverse of 1931. 90 years. 1931^-1+90 year cycle.
what i mean is if you flip 1931 upside down you will get a chart of 2021. my current analysis shows a 90%+ correlation.
some dates to watch
11/02 = 60 degrees from 9/02 top. (potential short term top)
11/05 = 3 days later (potential short term bottom)
12/13 = 90 weeks since march 23 bottom. very important for trend reversal
07/2022 = 120 weeks from march 23 bottom. very very very important - we will get to more about this later. (my current thinking that this might be the major top of the current bull campaign. yes very far away, and yes many bears to capitulated and trillions flooding the market). there are multiple reasons for this mathmatically too, but we will cross that bridge if and when we get there.
as for my current positions to establish bias:
crude corn wheat.
DIA 10/25 Analysis 2-4 HR Stochastic Shifting Bearish. Weekly Stochastic Bullish. 10/18 5HR EMA Bullish Cross. 50EMA Crossed Above 100/200EMA. Potential Head & Shoulders Pattern Being Formed, Invalidated If We Stay Above 355.35. Something To Keep In Mind: We Have Two Large Gap Downs To Fill, Between 350.25 - 349.10 & 346.50 - 346.
DIA 10/18 AnalysisWeekly Recap: Rejected The 349.50 Supply As Expected & Made A Double Top. Filled It's Downward Gap. Respected 341 & Found New Support Creating A Higher Low. Ran 12 Points The Rest Of The Week, Breaking Out Of The Daily Wedge. Creating Two Large Gaps (350.90 - 349.10 & 346.50 - 344.45) Ended The Week At A Key Weekly Level Of 353. We Still Have A Gap Up To Fill At 353.60.
DIA (dow jones etf) - Support, Resistance, Trend - October 2021Dow Jones Index ETF has been in a daily downtrend since September 2021.
DIA price is currently above trendline resistance.
-Bullish scenario: price breaks and holds above $350 to $354.
-Bearish scenario: price falls below $344 to $338.
Resistance(s): $350, $352, $354, $355, $357, $359.
Support(s): $346, $344, $339, $335, $333, $331.
Q3 2021 earnings season is starting, and will likely be the catalyst for price volatility this month.
The Unemployment Benefits' Impact on the Dow Jones.The Dow Jones Industrial Average stock has faced a rise by 2.71 points; as a result of the appearance of 2 bullish candlesticks and the positive data about the unemployment benefits released by the United States Department of Labor. Therefore, the stock is expected to continue in rising till it breaches the resistance line 350.41, on the contrary, if the stock faced a decline it may break the first support line 348.23 to reach the second support line 346.83 then the third support line 345.32
DIA (Dow Jones Index ETF) - Support, Resistance, Trend -09/05/21DIA (Dow Jones Index ETF) has been uptrending in 2021, on daily and weekly charts.
However, price is currently consolidating between $352.18 and $355.83.
Bullish scenario:
-DIA price breaks up above resistance to establish a higher-high.
-Resistance levels: $355.83, $358.07, $361.59.
Bearish scenario:
-DIA price pulls back down to test support levels below.
-Support levels: $352.14, $348.46, $346.17.
Note: To maintain a weekly uptrend, DIA price needs to close and hold above $346.17.
dreamed it in a dream
just a heads up....
july 15, 2022 will be one of the biggest trade opportunities of our lifetime.
i will elaborate more once we get closer.
i know i know... it is very very far away. but the geometry and math that i use gives me trades sometimes years in advance... a great deal of patience is needed to play the game like i play it.
Ecclesiastes 3
3 To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven:
2 A time to be born, and a time to die; a time to plant, and a time to pluck up that which is planted;
3 A time to kill, and a time to heal; a time to break down, and a time to build up;
4 A time to weep, and a time to laugh; a time to mourn, and a time to dance;
5 A time to cast away stones, and a time to gather stones together; a time to embrace, and a time to refrain from embracing;
6 A time to get, and a time to lose; a time to keep, and a time to cast away;
7 A time to rend, and a time to sew; a time to keep silence, and a time to speak;
8 A time to love, and a time to hate; a time of war, and a time of peace.