DIA trade ideas
326 is the 1.27 Extension for DIAWe are in a middle ground right now for DIA. Given the stimulus plan in place (very sure that is passes as of 3/10) expect an extension to 326 for the short term.
We don't see the 1.618 extension hitting anytime soon so 326 is the extension we look for a conclusion in the current market cycle.
Anything over this is a very overbought market and needs to be corrected. We will wait for confirmation of anything else until this point.
Bull-Bear Transition Year 2000Nasdaq (Nasdaq-100 ETF: QQQ) was a strong leader prior to topping out on March 9, 2000. This is very similar to today’s market with about 100% gains from February 2020 to February 2021
Dow (ETF: DIA) and S&P (ETF: SPY) lagged behind Nasdaq during the Nasdaq rally
When Nasdaq reversed from the top to its first stage, Dow and S&P were still near the record-high area.
Three-day rebound (04/05/2000-04/07/2000), which mapped to today’s condition, was to prepare the next sell-off wave
Then, it was another 5-day strong selling (04/10/2000-04/14/2000). Notice Dow and S&P performed well during that time. It made sense to see money rotation from red-hot technology or bubble to safer stocks like financial, industrial, energy, material. Does it sound similar when you compare Tesla (TSLA) with JP-Morgan (JPM) today?
The rest story is straightforward to see bull gave its position to bears in the next 12-15 months that Nasdaq lost -80% and Dow was down -40%.
DIA short into strengthWhile the tech sector is getting crushed right now, most financials, industrials, cyclicals, and value stocks which comprise over half of the Dow Jones Index are doing well. However, if you are looking to add some negative delta to your portfolio, you could short into strength. DJI/DIA could still rally up, but the downwards market pressure is getting stronger, so selling into strength might be ideal as the concentration of buyers towards the ATH will trigger stop losses at a high velocity. The probability of a rapid rally on DJI should be slim, but a rapid pulldown is feasible at the current levels.
DIA swing PUTs - insane bounce brings price up to resistance Look at the 60m chart and see the straight up price move in DIA. This kind of price action on an index ETF ???
The white line connects closing prices. I am buying swing puts now, with price between 321-322. My stop is over 322.10 to start. Give this time to reverse and if it does, you will have a fabulous reward to risk swing trade.
One caution I see on the RSI-14 is that we have a double touch at 50 and today's higher price signals a long trade. However the more I look at the 60m chart, combined with the stochastic bear warning (red rectangle), I like a put trade at least back to 315-314 if not lower.
I am choosing 31Mar 310 strike for this trade. I will wait 1-2 days for reversal signs. If price keeps going over 322 my risk is 30-40 cents per contract, which is about 12-15%. I am looking for at least a 50% return when I sell these puts.
DIA, SPY, QQQ Performance and Direction- Leadership rotation began on 02/16 where Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) gave up its upside leadership role
- Dow (DIA) is getting strong every day with a new high today
- S&P stays in the middle
- Market direction can be determined by looking at SPY to see if being dragged up or down
- Downside power seems to be stronger with QQQ so be prepared for full-scale downtrend or sell-off
$DIA Soars Higher as Tech Space DeleversIf you are sitting there thinking the market is in a "correction" right now, think again: the Dow is at new all-time highs today, led by financials, industrials, materials, energies, and staples.
It's only tech names that are taking a big beating. Rotation is the name of the game.
Market Crash? What I expect Monday on the Dow Jones is green!How Dow Jones Industrial Average has been responding to Full Moons. The Full Moon is Today Saturday 2/27/2021 Monday I expect a reversal.
Swing Puts Now - divergence leads to rebound into resistanceAt the end of last week there was barely a bullish divergence on the hourly chart with 7-day RSI. Price closed lower by a penny while RSI was higher. The Dow's fast selloff quickly drew in buyers this morning.
The blue line at 316.40 marks the resistance area. Last week's move down was strong enough that - combined with daily/weekly context - the index could see another wave of selling. I bought 19Mar 310 puts. My initial stop losses are >316.50 and >316.80.
Today's open was a bullish reversal, so if my trade idea is wrong then we should move higher in the next two days and my risk is low. If resistance holds, then a bigger selloff begins. The chart shows a gap from 2 Feb that may fill.
🩸 🐖 "Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"Hi guys after Friday rout there are new developments in stock market indicies. Last week price action on AMEX:DIA formed bearish reversal pattern buying climax above upper megaphone pattern line at the top of rising wedge. This rising wedge is 5th Elliot wave which is signaling trend will reverse soon.
As you can notice in chart last week realized volume was relatively big and volume week ago last week was rather small. Thats the signs that bears taking control significantly in recent days.
I expecting this week breakdown bellow megaphone upper line and begin forming corrective wave (a).
If you like the idea, do not forget to support with a 👍 like and follow.
Leave a comment that is helpful or encouraging. Let's master the markets together.
DIA - Staying in the upper channelToday the DIA opened at 314.77. Through the day it traded as high as 314.90 and as low as 311.60
Bollinger Bands
Looking at the Bollinger Bands for DIA, you can see that DIA is trading in the upper, which is considered to be a bullish sign. Not sure how much longer it can hang on. With 2 hours to go, we will see how it pans out.
MACD
Looking the MACD indicator below, you can see that the red is over the blue. This is can is indicative of an overall bearish towards DIA by the market.
MACD-EAZY PATTERN ANALYSIS. 2/26 $316c YOLO. FOLLOW MY TRADES. Pretty simple analysis, the MACD and chart pattern are following/will follow a trend similar to trend that started May 22, 2020 (the first red dashed line) and ended May 28, 2020.
$DIA CALMA StratReason for buying this stock:
Entry:
1. Candle is above ALMA
2. CCI Breaks 100
Exit:
1. Sell when happy
2. Candle is below ALMA
Not a financial advice. TAYOR. DYOR
DIA/DJIA/YM - is the Dow ready to drop? Or just lagging?With the SP500, Nasdaq, and Russell each at all-time highs as of Friday's close, you would think the Dow would be right there with them; but it isn't. On its own, this doesn't necessarily foreshadow lower prices. However, as we add to the story there may be a little more going on with the Dow. Taken from the 2009 low around $65 (not coincidentally, the beginning of QE infinity from the Fed), we see a pretty clear trend channel (best seen on the 1W chart connecting Mar 09 low to Oct 2011 low, Aug 2015 lows, and Jan 2018 highs); within this channel, the Dow has been seemingly stalled out up at the top for around a month (even longer if you consider the belabored move after the blast off in all assets after the election in early Nov 2020). After a sharp move down a week ago (first week of Feb), we saw a strong move back up last week to reverse the selling. What stands out about this move is the lack of volume, the Dow popped last week on half the volume from the selling we witnessed the week before. Now, this certainly points to the ease of movement but it also suggests a lack of conviction. Breaking out to all-time highs on a lack of volume is not bullish; it isn't sustainable. This look is a lot more clear on the 1D chart, especially the narrow range bar printed on Friday. Not only was Friday's range the smallest of last week's move but it was also on the least amount of volume. Equally important, the Dow tried higher price and again failed to register a break and hold of the highs from 1/7 and 1/21 and closed near the lows of the day.
All this being said, given the strength in seemingly every asset class amongst the backdrop of easy money and 0% interest rates (or negative rates), it is damn hard to short the Dow (or anything). But, there is definitely some weakness here that will undoubtedly show itself in the coming weeks. Looking for continued weakness here before establishing a position but its on the radar.
DIA Price LevelsThe great GME crash. Hedge funds forced to sell winners and crash the market to bail out their looser.
Could go as low as 10% down. Keeping a close eye on price action near historic levels and put walls.
How Much More Can It Go DOW?I plotted some ranges and timeframes to get a better understanding how, in a worst-case scenario if history were to repeat itself exactly, when and how much we would tumble and fall.
Firstly, it showed that we could potentially go up as high as 320ish before the waterfall.
Secondly, the first drop, if like the March waterfall, could hit as low as 253ish.
Obviously history is unlikely to repeat itself exactly, but this seems like a very plausible outcome to me. Perhaps the fall will not be as large because it is more expected this time, but I do think we, as humans, run in cycles.
And like a washing machine running a load, our buzzer is going to go off.
-FIB
Out of the Realm of Possibility DOWApparently standard deviation means nothing to the markets right now. Even 99.5% probability has .5% of possibility in it.
We are well out of the range of normal, whatever that means, as I attempt to illustrate in this linear regression model.
Perhaps we have another month before the disaster, but based on the significantly larger increase in price than the preceding dive in March, timing may be sooner as a function of it being relative to magnitude.
Only time will tell.
Low Risk Weekly DIA Credit Spread (5% gain on capital invested)I'm looking to enter a Put Credit Spread on DIA with the goal of collecting $5-$6 worth of credit per contact with a $1.5 wide spread. I'll be holding till DOE with the intention of growing capital invested by a minimum of 5% for the week.
-Current price is: $308
-Credit spread sell strike: $290
-Current price to sell strick: 6.2%
-Is price trading above 50 day SMA?: Yes
-Is price trading above 200 day SMA?: Yes
-Percent OTM if held to DOE upon entering, is: 92% - 94% of being OTM if held to DOE
-Technical analysis: DIA is trading above 50 and 200 day SMA which signals that we are in an uptrend. Our sell strick has been placed below .382 (292.5) fib retracement level. This price zone has held as support in the past I'm looking for it to hold again this week.
Let me know what you think. Have a nice day.
