DIA trade ideas
DIA MARCH 18TH IRON CONDORBecause my layered on setups in SPY are getting "a little busy" as far as number of setups on and their location strike-wise, I figured I'd briefly move my iron condoring to DIA for a little while to allow my SPY setups to clean themselves up (one way or another).
Here's a March 18h setup:
DIA March 18th 142/146/170/174 iron condor
Probability of Profit %: 67%
Max Profit: $96/contract
Buying Power Effect: $304/contract
Notes: Look to take the entire setup off at 50% max profit. Should one side near max profit, roll the entire spread/wing approaching max profit toward current price within the same expiration if it is reasonably profitable to do so. With these particular setups in index ETF's where vol skew is involved, I generally do any call side roll to not greater than the edge of the expected move on the call side (the 75% probability OTM strike) and any put side roll to the 1 SD line (the 84% probability OTM strike).
On a test of a side, look to roll the tested side out at the same strikes and sell an oppositional side against the rolled out side for a credit greater than what it cost to roll out the tested side. (This frequently requires looking at a number of different expirations to see what works best in the individual setup's circumstance). I generally do this no later than 3 or 4 DTE.
$DIA $DJIA bounces off of 1st Yearly Support. Yesterday the Dow Jones Index $DJIA $DIA found support right on the YearlyS1 Pivot point. This was the spot to cover remaining shorts and look for new short term long opportunities. That is what one of the Pivots we use at PivotalPivots.com
Standing On the Precipice - DOW EditionThis post is very similar to my previous post regarding SPY (See "Links to Related Posts" below). I am very bearish on the DOW overall and I think we will see that translate into selloffs of DIA to retest the $171.00 level. The trading during the shortened New Years week was lower in volume, but still indicative of an overall bearish sentiment in the market. My forecast is that Monday or Tuesday may see DIA hovering around the $172.50 level before retreating even further to $171.00 later in the week. There is not much propping up the DOW at this point and I feel like we are on the precipice of another major selloff like we saw in August, with lower highs and lower lows preceding a breakdown to the $160's.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
Candle: Solid Red Candle (Bearish-Sellers had control of the market all of last Wednesday and most of Thursday)
Volume: Increasing selling volume (Bearish)
Stochastic (Slow): %D hovering around 30-40, %K descending, but greater than %D (Bearish-Sellers have control of the market)
MACD: Histogram very slightly positive, but falling back quickly towards 0, MACD moving towards a crossover of signal (Very Bearish)
Overall Trend: Downward-20 day EMA (Blue Line) nearing a crossover of 200 day EMA (Blue Circles) (Bearish)
Agree? Disagree? Any feedback would be greatly appreciated! Thanks, and happy trading!
a possible move in Dow Jones Index - and how to tradewhy long? i see a bullish trend by the used moving averages and a bullish flag - if the last high at 17966 is hit when i prefere to go long with a protective stop at 50 % Retracement an a 1. target at the 1.61,8 % extension.
Next demand zones mapped out where price will turn.Next demand zones mapped out where price will turn.
DIA: Aiming higher it would appearThe chart shows a time at mode trend signal that aims considerably higher, but there are hurdles along the way.
It might be interesting to short once the resistances labeled on chart are reached, but only under the highest low.
We can also attempt to capture shorter timeframe legs, up and down, using the 65 minute chart for example.
It's clear that the broad risk on rally theme is back on track, question is for how long will it last?
The uptrend signal expires by November 9.
Let's see how it goes.
If you want live updates and more information, make sure to follow me at collective2, where I provide signals for auto trading and via email for a monthly fee.
I'm also providing access to a live trading chatroom free of charge for concordbay.com customers, contact me via skype for more details.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie
Time at Mode FX
Analyst at Concord Bay dot com
DIA DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL SPDR - 5Day Time@Mode SetupHere's a simple weekly chart of the DIA using a 5-day chart. 5-Day charts use consecutive 5-day time windows to form the bars and is not a "weekly" chart because it isn't plotting Mon-Fri action as one bar. It's a clever way to group 5-days together for graphing.
The rally up from the 6-week base has now extended 6 weeks and time has expired. The rally has failed to reach the upside target (see white arrows at top of chart) and given that we have had contracting ranges for the last two 5-day time windows which suggests loss of momentum, we can look for sell signals to trigger. We are also rallying into the "High Volume Resistance" on the chart (see labeling on histogram of volume on the right side of the chart).
The bullish points were from before where there was a 6-week range from which a "range expansion rally started from" and then "confirmed by rallying the same distance again within 3 bars", but now the bullish factors are behind the market and it is back to the "prove it" stage once again.
There is one "range expansion from 2 weeks ago that will fail if we don't rally 6.20 points from the 177.68 level. So, we need to reach 183.88 to prove the range expansion from October 22 (week #4 of 6 week rally).
Good fortune to you.
Questions: Please PM me or ask in the "Key Hidden Levels Chat Room" where myself or Ivan Labrie can answer.
Tim
DIA - Fibo Cluster Level Overhead @175-176 BandLooking for potential retracement high to Short the indices, with my main focus on DIA currently.
DIA staged a nice ABC-wave rally recovering from major pivot low of 150.5.
Currently looking ripe for a continuation of the underlying major correction from 183-150.
The 175-176 region is ultra significant, comprising of:
(i) previously surrendered H&S neckline,
(ii) 76.4% fibo retracement line for the 183-150 plunge, & also
(iii) the 127.2% extension level of earlier rise from 155-167.
Similar setups can be found on the other 2 indices - SPY & QQQ.
Will update on SPY over the weekend. :)
Options Expirations in the DIA and support/resistanceThere are a few ideas which will help you decipher where support and resistance are in the market. With the help of TradingView's powerful graphical ability and a subscription to some of the premium services, you can "see" levels of support/resistance in unique ways.
One I am showing you here is "volume profile" which you can set over a time range that you specify. I like to see volume in this way because I want to see volume in the current trend and this provides that for me. When I see a place where very little volume has traded I KNOW that level is important because one side of the market was so strong at that level that it didn't even trade much there. If you rally back up to a level where little volume traded, like the red box marked "LOW VOLUME RESISTANCE", then you can very safely expect a reaction, at least. Some may just call that level a "gap" or a "breakaway level" but I label it "Low Volume Resistance".
I also have plotted the options expirations on this chart, which can often be useful to know about because it is my belief that expirations are the summation of all of the speculators and hedgers "thinking" for that expiration cycle. Everyone closes out their positions or rolls them into the next expiration, but the act of rolling those position and closing positions exerts a force on the market that is useful to reference in future days of trading. Knowing that price gives you information and has you armed and prepared. To NOT know it is to ignore what is going on in the market.
So, I look forward to your comments and questions. And sorry if this looks like an advertisement for TradingView's premium services, but they are valuable and worth it.
Best regards,
Tim
9:47AM EST 9/28/2015
DIA NEUTRALThe DOW from a weekly perspective is
still trading inside its trading range and
looks to retest the FEB lows. watching for
a close below that swing low
DIARounded top on dow shows change in momentum from up to down and this needs to have a healthy correction, odds are it will pop back quicker than the needed 10-12% correction but time will tell
Hillary Clinton Making Tax Proposal Speech INFORMATIONAL:
Hillary Clinton Tax Proposals:
1. Change long term capital gains from 1 year to 6 years.
2. 2-3 years holding period would be taxed at ordinary tax rates instead of <1 year now.
3. Reduce capital gains tax on small business or "innovative" new businesses (Who defines "innovative"?)
4. Change carried-interest tax laws which are unfair.
5. Take a HARD LOOK at stock buybacks. Waiting an entire quarter to report buybacks seems too slow, other countries are "next day".
6. Change corporate executive compensation. Too many high payouts when companies and employees are suffering. Execs make 300 x's what employees make, versus 50 x's in the past.
Dow set for a fallChart shows a vertical line at or around 1 Jul of every year since 1998 (DIA: Dow Industrial Average ETF). More often than not, the Dow falls around this time of the year (unless it has already fallen in the last two months). The faster it has risen in the previous period, the harder the fall tends to be. This year the July fall is likely to be the start of a considerable correction, given that the graph has risen to a spectacular height and that rising interest rates are imminent.
Owner of Grok Trade: DIA at resistanceAs much as I hate "Neutral" ideas, It's warranted here. DIA has slammed into resistance. This trendline has served as resistance two previous times. I expect a stall or a drop going into the weekend.
