40 Bar Cycle Chart - Dow Jones DIA DJIA - Updated 121722This last week, markets initially rallied on the release of the "cooler" than expected November CPI (Consumer Price Index) — only to be smacked back to reality on the comments via Federal Reserve Chairman J. Powell during the December Interest Rate Decision (FOMC) meeting this last Wednesday as "higher for longer" is the communicated pathway forward for the FED and financial markets.
Whether this is all talk to put some intentional downward pressure on markets, as financial conditions have eased as of late — or this is the actual pathway forward and the bond markets are mis-pricing the projected Terminal FFR (Fed Funds Rate, now >5% into 23'), some indicators such as our (40-Bar Cycle Chart) 📉 are highlighting what is likely another leg down in financial assets as QT ramps up and higher interest rates take their toll on real economic activity. Keep in mind that behind the scenes, the FED in coordination with the U.S. Treasury are working their magic 🧙🏼♂️🔮 in terms of FED Net Liquidity to keep things "(dis)orderly".
Here is the updated 40-Bar Cycle Chart for DIA DJIA, which seems to be sitting on some major support. Given the structure of the markets after losing the $330 DIA / $33,000 DJIA, along with J. Powell and other FED speaker comments post-FOMC on Friday, is the hopes for a year-end 🎅 🎄 rally wishful thinking?
DIA Daily Chart Template
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Which camp are you in on the short-term (end of year into Q1/23') direction of markets?
Camp A: We are likely we headed for new lows in Q1/23 (Fluctuating Inflation + Persistent Price/Wage Pressures + Hawkish FED).
Camp B: We are likely to break the downtrend into the start of Q1/23' (Peak Inflation + Deflationary Forces + Dovish FED).
Let me know your prediction in the comments below! 👇🏼
DIA trade ideas
DIA - Starting RS of Inverse H&S?If AAPL's topping formation (see my AAPL analysis) is any indication, and the Dow's 5300 point move off the October lows is any indication, the right shoulder of the inverse H&S formation should start to get filled as AAPL completes it own right shoulder with a move down. Again, similar to AAPL, the left shoulder, head and right shoulder if formed would line up in time and price. We have what could be a false breakout of the descending trend line on declining volume and RSI within an ascending triangle as a result of the prior two CPI reports. Market needs to correct if any meaningful advance is to occur. Any continued up move is delaying the inevitable. I think that we are close. Happy Trading!
short call spreads working in dow index DIA on mean reversionIts not a good sign when the dow is getting bid up more than the growth sectors. Could be implying investors and institutions DIA who have to buy stocks are preferring blue chip dividend payers because they dont see growth in the near term. QQQ AAPL
40 Bar Cycle Chart - Dow Jones DIA DJIA - Updated 121022Given that we are headed into the release of the November Consumer Price Index this upcoming (Tuesday, December 13th) and also the December Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday, December 14th) , are markets set up for another short opportunity into the end of January (Q1)?
DIA DJIA Daily Chart Template
www.tradingview.com
Which camp are you in on the short-term (end of year into Q1/23') direction of markets?
Camp A: We are likely we headed for new lows in Q1/23 (Fluctuating Inflation + Persistent Price/Wage Pressures + Hawkish FED).
Camp B: We are likely to break the downtrend into the start of Q1/23' (Peak Inflation + Deflationary Forces + Dovish FED).
Let me know your prediction in the comments below!
selling call option spreads until the stock market gets cheaperstock market is pricing in close to 20 PE currently which is roughly a 5% earnings yield, while bonds are paying close to that. next years expectations are still that we see a rise of as much as 10% higher earnings. If we instead slow down earnings growth, the market may be too expensive. SPX SPY IWF QQQ DIA
DIA Dow Jones Outlook For 2023Throwing a textbook at the charts it becomes clear at what is happening.
This is DIA Dow Jones ETF:
- A Clear double bottom formed that pushed DIA to recent resistance - yellow line
- Another rising wedge is forming which we will see correction, small correction.
- After small correction we will retest Resistance line again.
- AFTER the above we will form a DOUBLE TOP which we can retest resistance.
ALSO note the fibonacci levels at 0.618 we will have to close the gap at the green arrow.
Double Bottom/Over-extended?ATH 369.5.
The double bottom formed a little while back.
Fairly steep climb and has surpassed the 1.272 on it's 4th leg up.
This really looks like it will reverse soon but no telling!
DIA is at a resistance trendline and it remains to be seen if it will be broken.
Possibly bit overextended at this level but time will tell.
No recommendation.
Short DIA @ prior months resistance Once an area or “zone” of prior resistance has been identified, those price levels can serve as potential entry or exit points because, as the price reaches a point of previous support or resistance, it will do one of two things: bounce back away from the support or resistance level, or violate the price level and continue its trend until it hits the next support or resistance level.
As most other major market indices are at 200-day SMA support we are taking a short position in DIA at the prior months' resistance zone.
DIA: Surfing a Fib LineAMEX:DIA
DIA has broken a long term negative trend line. 4h chart holding negative MACD, with 1D MACD looking to roll over to the negative side. Price hanging steady in the mid 330 range for the past week turning the 9sma flat and surfing the .618 Fib line. Continuing to monitor looking for a reaction off the Fib line
Return to Normal Rally for DJIA$DIA is showing a negative Monthly RSI divergence and this type of price action is emblematic of a 'return to normal' rally after a bubble pops. Chart points to further losses into 2023. I would personally heed the warning coming from Jeff Bezos and others. I am still bearish on equity markets given rates, geopolitics, and the FTX fallout.
DIA: Week of Nov 14Hey everyone,
As I said and requested, here is my analysis on the DOW.
The DOW (DIA) and the Russel (IWM) are actually the most bullish looking stocks, at least as far as math and probs are concerned. Lots of bullishness is just being thrown in our faces here.
Let me break down the probabilities by index so you can just see this visually. The chart below shows the probability of the 3 indices (SPY, DIA and IWM) hitting either their first bull target or their first bear target:
So let's recap:
First off, we have a very clear breakout and hold from the qualitative regression downtrend. This is a traditionally bullish happening.
As with SPY, we have hit the second real time monthly bear target and on Friday we hit the first, real time (RTT) monthly high target at 337.79.
The next RTT is 341 followed by the third at 345.
While I was super focused on the numbers and the regression trend, I missed something that may have been obvious had I been paying closer attention:
This seems to, at this for right now, be following through.
Analysis:
So what can we expect next week?
DIA is yet to be put into Python for auto calculation of probs, so I had to do it manually and I forgot how much of a nerd I am. I love writing out math stuff haha. Anyway, our prospective targets are:
Bull:
1. 339.08 (50% prob)
2. 341.66 (6.1% prob)
3. 344.24 (<0.50% prob)
Bear
1.335.29 (38% prob)
2. 331.92 (0.3% prob)
3. 328.55 (<0.3% prob)
Technicals:
Unlike with SPY, Buyers have remain consistent. DIA is a little bit lower volume that SPY and can really signal a bit better what the buyer/seller sentiment is. So let's take a look at the buyer to seller ratio chart. And let's look at it YTD over the weekly.
And just for fun lets compare buyers to sellers on SPY vs DIA YTD:
Not sure if this is helpful, but I find it interesting haha.
For Monday, the technicals are erring on the bullish side. The targets are as follows:
Bull:
1. 337.51
2. 338.89
3. 340.27
Bear:
1. 336.29
2. 334.68
3. 333.07
So I think that concludes everything.
As always, leave your questions and comments and criticisms below!
Have a great weekend everyone!
DOW - Hits Downtrend Line!The move in the Dow over the last 21 trading days has come to the very top of its downtrend line up 5100 points or 18% since October 13th. Significantly overbought with many components up 30-50% in the same time. Book the profits and don't stick around too long. Happy Trading!
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Major Level here! The Dow Jones Industrial Average Indice is seeing a major runup the past few weeks since the beginning of October.
The Dow has seen record gains of 17% since its bottom in Early October.
The Dow is now running into some big-time resistance... That is our focus today to dive in to.
The 30 companies pushing the Dow up may be becoming overbought indicated from RSI and other oscillators.
TrendLine 1
But what we're looking at is the Dow's trendline analysis. We are seeing a Long Time Resistance Line Dating back actually all the way to 2008 guiding as a mean resistance point being touched now again! This marked 'Blue' Line represents that resistance and the Dow is approaching and testing that level now. A Rejection could lead to a selloff, if History Repeats and Dow does not want to head higher at this time.
OPINION : Dow will only break this trendline if looking to really meltup or erase losses and hit All Time Highs. If this is not the case yet, I do not see this breaking upwards at this level.
TrendLine 2
This Trendline has lasted and been intact since the kickoff of the 2022 Bear Market.
We have seen numerous Retests and Rejections of this Resistance Line, and we are now testing this again.
We have YET to break through this barrier, as it guides the market lower & lower.
Again The Dow will need major buying to break thru these levels, as massive resistance is present.
OPINION : Same as above, I can only see a break upwards if buyers really believe Dow is going back to ATH or erase gains in a massive market melt-up
Contrarian to my Writing : This article mainly features idea of a rejection, but one thing that particularly makes me more bullish on Technicals here is that the S&P / NASDAQ have yet hit their own bear market trendlines and this could rally the market up higher to those areas. If this happens, it is likely the Dow follows this movement somewhat, and could see a break above.
Something to keep note of!!!
$DOW JONES INDUSTRIALWe can consider many factors to determine what will be our future direction, but once a trend is developed is more likely to follow than change it.
The support bands suggest that the Trend is changing direction on the weekly chart.
For the time the J Powell decide to pivot, TML will be way gone.
Look for those market leaders the will double in a short time period.
DOW JONES kissed the 200 moving averageDOW JONES kissed the 200 moving average and going down
we might see some retracement on dow jones. Lets see
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