4AAL trade ideas
$AAL Iron CondorHaven't posted on here in a bit. Figured I would share some plays that take advantage of the recent spike in volatility.
Airlines have taken an absolute beating, and if you put a gun to my head I would say that will continue. However I don't see it happening at the same pace and we should get a couple green days mixed in. The high IV has provided a very wide profit zone here, a range equal to nearly 50% of the underlying with only 3 weeks til expiration.
Buy: 3/20 24 Call
Sell: 3/20 22 Call
Sell: 3/20 14 Put
Buy: 3/20 12 Put
Net Credit: $52
Max Loss: $148
AAL - Double Top or M is for MurderAs COVID-19 continues to spread, travel will continue to diminish. Long Term, I believe this stock will continue a downward trend towards $10 a share through 2020.
AALAmerican Airlines felt significant drop after flight cancellations and international travel decrease. Currently price is testing below annual lows and out of its previous trading range. MACD is attempting to gain some stability as the price levels attempt to find support in the massive sell off.
Now, you can own AAL for 60% discount !Since the peak almost 3 years back, the price of AAL has been nothing but down ,down , down.
So, if you have the patience to hold for years, you can make such good returns shorting as well.
Now, are we going to witness a breakout soon or will it heads lower ? It is safe to err on the side of caution since the Covid-19 virus has not subside , in fact the flame seems to be getting stronger by the day.
AAL is just one of the travel stocks that got hit though their exposure to Asia travel routes may not be as high compared to Cathay Pacific
This will be one sector that I will be researching more indepth months down the road when the virus is eliminated or a cure is found. Or at least things are much in control and people are feeling safe to travel once more. Imagine global conferences being cancelled , meetings and events business badly affected, so are the hotels, taxi business, F&B, the whole chain that are related. Note that not all events or meetings can be done online, the need for face to face meetings still very much exist in this 21st century.
Imagine the CEOs and executives not able to claim for their 5 stars accommodation and 1st class seat flight along with 3 star Michelin F&B restaurant, what will the world become ? HAHA
American Airlines hit a long term wall Weekly chart hit a long term trend line that goes back to 2018 due to this i m looking to short American Airlines
$AAL - Weekly breakout ou juste continuation de la baisse? Voici mon analyse sur $AAL :
- Actif dans une tendance baissière depuis longtemps (une correction de plus de 50%)
- Point clé au niveau du canal pouvant donner sur un breakout ou continuation pour shorter
- Un niveau short réduit à 16% hier alors que la moyenne générale est 40%
- Un bloc institutionnel important de 9mil à 28.33 (smart money) a été complété pouvant donner une volatilité plus élevé
- Moyenne mobile 200 servant de résistance niveau daily également
- Attendre un signal de breakout confirmé pour la hausse et échec du retest pour continuer la baisse.
AAL BUY (AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC)Hi there.
REASONS TO BUY:
1. On bigger time frame price is forming a continuation pattern to the upside.
2. On weekly time frame price is forming a reversal pattern to change its formation. Watch strong price action at the current price for buy.
American Airlines: Buy opportunity on the 1W MA50 break out.AAL has completed 2 years since the January 2018 top. The downtrend since then has been non-stop and 1W even formed a Channel Down with the MA50 (blue line) acting as a Resistance and Lower High.
With 1W however turning neutral (RSI = 49.107, STOCH = 47.539, ADX = 14.260, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) after finding Support at 24.70 (has been holding since June 2016) and even making a Double Bottom there, and the RSI on a bullish divergence, we are expecting a strong bullish break out once the MA50 breaks.
We will buy on the break out and aim at the 1W MA200 (orange line).
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American AirlinesPotential long on AAL. Currently sitting at near the major all time lows. There is a clean double bottom formed in the end of 2019 and there is a slight upwards trending chart now. If holds this position and earnings are strong that we can look for the stock to make a new push back towards previous highs.
AAL: terrible airline, good setup pre-earningsAmerican Airlines was recently rated one of the worst major airlines by the Wall Street Journal, and the news for the company overall hasn't been great. However, the technical setup looks fairly nice, with American near a support level and showing a long period of bullish divergence on the weekly RSI and MACD. It's got a 1.5% dividend yield and a really good valuation at 5.67 forward P/E.
AAL has earnings next week, and has generally tended to slightly beat analyst estimates over the last 8 quarters. An earnings beat for AAL could be the catalyst to send the stock into a new uptrend, especially if fuel prices continue to fall as the EIA predicts. Instead of playing AAL earnings, maybe consider diversifying your risk by buying the JETS ETF. Some other airlines, including Alaska Airlines, have similarly juicy setups and also report earnings this week.
$AAL Breakout or Breakdown?Breakout or breakdown from the symmetrical triangle pattern would give a long or short position opportunity.
AAL Fat Descending ScallopBig boi descending scallop, possible upward movement, however low success rate in a bearish market. A rising wedge can be seen to have caused this scallop (highlighted in red) Included fibonacci levels for possible upward movement targets.
$AALInsanely good RR on calls for $AAL near 27.5 level (Hourly orderblock + Trendline suppport). If breaks lower, short the retest to low 27 and mid 26.
Investment ideaAmerican airlines look pretty attractive given a flat structure that may be completed.
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