4ADBE trade ideas
Adobe to spike on Adobe Max Conference, 2018I believe the risk / reward ratio on Adobe is a good swing trade at the moment. The Adobe Max Conference is coming up in a few days, and historically Adobe stock has benefited from this. There is speculation about a possible Photoshop for iPad release as well, which could give investors a lot of hype.
Bears eyeing ADBE divergenceADBE has been a beast for a long time, but there are signs the bulls may be exhausting. The daily chart is looking toppy with upper wicks of profit taking and clear resistance at 272.50, and a potential bearish reversal Head & Shoulders pattern forming on the daily. The support to break is 257 to confirm the pattern.
The daily chart is setting up minor RSI bearish divergence and pretty significant MACD bearish divergence.
This is one I'm going to wait for to come to me. Bearish RSI and MACD divergence on the weekly can be seen going back to November 2017 and the odds are always against the bear standing in front of a bull stock at all time highs. Any bears who took this short at the first sign of the divergence have long become insolvent.
The Gottcha ADBE TrendThe ADBE Trend is one that is often a “gottcha” for new swing traders. The problem is trading leadership. The runs are not initiated by Dark Pools or Pro Traders. The runs are initiated by smaller funds using VWAP or, worse, the retail crowd. The retail crowd is more emotional, has less experience and minimal training. Therefore, the runs they create are harder to trade. Try to avoid trading stocks that lack strong runs. Strive to trade with the Pro Traders, as the follow-through of the run is more reliable and the profits are usually much higher. This is not the ideal stock for swing trading at this time.
Martha Stokes, CMT
Adobe: in watchlist for next week.270-272 is a resistance level: my forecast is that adobe will not breach this area today 2018-09-14.
I'll add ADBE in my watchlist for next week because, after a retracement (down from overbought area of stochastic), will go long and will break the resistance area 270-272.