4ADBE trade ideas
THE WEEK AHEAD: ADBE, OIH, XOP, GDXJ, EWZ, VIXWith the VIX dropping hard below 15, some of the juice has poured out of the cup ... . Even so, there remain a few plays in the market.
ADBE announces earnings on the 15th (Thursday) after market close. The volatility metrics don't quite meet my criteria for a volatility contraction play (56/32), but the March 23rd 210/323.5 short strangle is paying 3.80 at the mid with that setup's defined risk counterpart, the 205/210/232.5/237.5 iron condor, paying 1.69, just a smidge over one-third the width of the wings. These are off hours quotes, so neither of these may look as attractive during regular market hours when things tighten up. Nevertheless, worth keeping an eyeball on.
The remainder of earnings announcements on tap for next week either involve poor liquidity underlyings or have implied volatility in the lower half of their 52-week range, making them singularly unattractive for the standard play.
In the exchange-traded fund neck of the woods, OIH and XOP retain fairly decent background implied volatility at 31, as does the junior gold miners fund, GDXJ. My preference is to pull the trigger on these underlyings directionally. With GDXJ, I would like slightly lower (sub-30 would be great). A touch of caution is warranted, however, since there is a bit of divergence between gold spot prices and both GDX and GDXJ, implying that if gold goes lower here (it's got room), the miners will weaken even further, so trade these small in the event that support terms out to be meaningless (i.e., you're dead ass wrong as to direction).
As far as "the Brazilian" (EWZ) is concerned, the April 20th 43/49 (40 days until expiry) short strangle is paying 1.25 at the mid; it isn't hugely compelling, but it's a sub-$50 underlying after all. If you're going to pull the trigger on that setup, however, I'd do it soon, since we're quickly getting outside the 45-day sweet spot.
VIX futures term structure has finally returned to a modest degree of normalcy, with contracts in contango front to back. I'm still waiting for a few UVXY short call verts to pull off here that I put on in the hot and heavy of early Feb, so am going to hand sit until I'm able to quit sweating over those. The forecast, however, is for contango erosion/beta slippage to resume (it already has) in UVXY and VXX, implying that they will continue to pretty much go down from here over time (naturally, in the absence of another pop).
High prices good earningsAdobe has been one of those interesting plays on cloud with making their products exclusively available on subscription based. Effectivly it looks that an 2 years subscription is worth as much as their complete adobe suite. We seen the effect of those changes already and with ever increasing user base (attributed to good positioning for mobile, design and video with newer products). Last reports were nothing but great suprices with 10-12% overachiving. Let's see if adobe can deliver this time again.
Price/Earning ratio seems to be going on the higher side, but still some space to grow. I'm expecting adobe's EBIT to continue going up to ~3.6B and P/E to below 80 to consider good buy.
Good luck and happy trading
ADBE showing RSI divergence ADBE showing RSI divergence . retraces from channel top.. The run is nothing but a mania since Feb 16' so Beware!
Technology stocks for 2018 #2 (ADBE)Sector: Technology
Industry: Application Software
Adobe Systems Incorporated operates as a diversified software company worldwide. Its Digital Media segment provides tools and solutions that enable individuals, small and medium businesses, and enterprises to create, publish, promote, and monetize their digital content.
www.morningstar.com
For Options Traders this kind of trend offer they several opportunities they only need to wait for a price retracement and trade with (Your own strategies)
because, I pick the idea but I not a trader.
The other aspect for Options Traders is, that this is a highly traded stock, the Avg-Volume is 2,860,070
All the ideas in this series of publications called "Technology stocks for 2018" Are Trend Following.
No price patterns in this series. Do it easy, No technical analysis
Trend Following
ADOBE SYSTEMS INC. ADOBE.
Prices are currently searching for resistance. I think prices may continue to surge to highs of 214. If prices break above 208.00 with significant volume we could have some buy opportunity, a real chance to go long. I think that you should be very conservative with your contract size on this trade, regardless if our Target Profit was met I'm anticipating a sharp reversal so you may want to get out and wait for a short position.
However
We could see prices continue and then reverse at the 218 Region.
For now I wouldn't go long pass these two regions.
Vol: 539.745K
EPS: 3.43
Market Cap: 99.781B
P/E: 60.01
adbe - Three drives!Adobe systems has been showing good relative strength and i like the possibility of completing three drives pattern setting up. Waiting to see how the markets turnabout hopefully will get a bit of a consolidation period and build a decent position.
ADBE HourlyOn the hourly ADBE chart. Not enough volume coming in until the last hour. Might need to form a handle on Monday before continuation. Support at $200ish
ADBE - Heavy Overhead Resistance Around $195-196We are about to hit long term overhead resistance at 195 to 196. We'll likely need to back off soon before moving to 200.
ADBE - Target of 209 with retrace to fill todays gapADBE - Target of 209 with retrace to fill todays gap
ADBE - Hitting Retrace Resistance - Then Down to 185Adobe is about to finish its short term retracement. Then its back to long term support at 185, which intersects the large scale upward fib channel. It may hit 185 when it hits the fib time window (Jan 22nd)
