4CVS trade ideas
CVS Long IdeaShould have posted this sooner, but have been shot down several times this year when getting constructive on this name
-CVS may finally be ready to break out
-The stocks been stuck for most of 2018; falling backwards each time it's attempted a run, usually due to some headline (Amazon getting in the space for example)
-Strong earnings and fundamental story; cyclically resilient business
- Still trading at less than half its historical PE
CVS Bounced Nicely Off Support, Potential To Rise Further! CVS bounced off its support at 63.28 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension x2, multiple swing low support) where it could potentially rise up to its resistance at 67.58 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).
Stochastic (89, 5, 3) bounced off its support at 3.6% where a corresponding rise could occur.
CVS long following bottoming out, monthly bullish divergenceCVS has formed a descending triangle and daily appears to be closing above the upper triangle (break out). We have a monthly bull div on the RSI. A forming daily wedge will provide good stop for our trade. R:R lies in longing at break out confirmation.
$CVS Long-term Chart Bearish$CVS showing a bearish gravestone doji on the daily to remain trapped in what looks like a descending triangle pattern forming. Ideally would like to see another red candle tomorrow for confirmation.
Targeting 5-10% downside in the near term. If $60 support fails, could see 15-20% downside before next ER.
CVS offers high risk/reward entryFA wise, CVS is not a terrible stock. The company has been making consistently increasing both in revenues and earnings the last few years. My stock valuation system gives it good scores both in valuation and quality domains.
TA wise, the low of $60 at end of March confluently hit the big support trend line and 61.8% fib level and bounced off strongly in 5 waves from there. All of that offers a very promising entry point around $64 level. Latest earnings call which is considered as negative offers us a nice pull back from the last 5-wave bounce taking price right to ~$64 level.
Conservative target: $80 (green box). This is also an important POC level in weekly chart.
Reasonable target: $90 (blue box). This is a reasonable level for the next considerable retracement.
Stop loss: below 60.
{
"info": {
"close ": 64.47,
"marketcap ($bil)": 67.1,
"name": "cvs health corporation",
"sector": "health care",
"industry": "medical/nursing services",
"country": "united states"
},
"val": {
"peg_k": 0.40787581,
"fp2e_k": 10.12087912,
"p2e_k": 10.01086957,
"p2e": 9.99534884,
"p2bv": 1.7412767,
"p2sales": 0.35731722,
"p2fcf": null,
"ev2ebitda": null,
"ev2ebitda_k": null
},
"val2_k": 30,
"val2_q": 19,
"qual2_k": 55,
"qual2_q": 38,
"qual3_k": 55
}
CVS Relief Rally on the wayShort sellers are exhausted after nearly 5 years of selling. CVS looks to be forming a W bottom at the 60 level, earnings have been steady and increasing for sometime making CVS a great value at this price, expect a 20-40% increase when shorts get squeezed in the coming weeks. My conservative target is in the 83, actual target is 95. Stop is a little under 60.