4IBM trade ideas
Tech Giant IBM 1993 Bull Run, is it over?Since 1993 IBM has been on a bull run. IBM bull run started out as a rising wedge pattern from late 1993 till about 1997. Irrational exuberance propelled the stock out of the wedge reaching a status of overbought (above upper purple line). The stock remained overbought for a few years until the Enron-World Com accounting scandals rocked the stock. IBM shares took more than a 60% haircut from the tech bubble 1999 highs. Shares of IBM resumed back to the extended 1993 wedge support/resistance and held middle ground (dotted-white line). In 2008 when the S&P and DJIA hit all-time highs, IBM hit the upper resistance line and quickly fell back to the bottom support line during the financial crisis of 2008-09. IBM stock has once again rocketed outside the upper resistance line. For me this signals we are once again in an irrationally priced market. The Nasdaq has not reached an all-time high in price similar to the bubble, but the prices are closer to pre-bubble highs than ever before.
In the short-term I have IBM pricing over 200, but only temporarily before a market crash ensues. I expect IBM to once again price near the lower purple support line rather quickly. Other than the an overbought tech market, a United States credit rating cut by both Moodys Analytics and Fitch will aid in the stock plunge. We were warned ... www.bloomberg.com
Geithner Warns Lawmakers Debt Standoff Risks U.S. Default
Dec 26, 2012 Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said he will take “extraordinary measures” to postpone a U.S. default into early 2013 while President Barack Obama and Congress work out a deficit-reduction deal. Geithner, in a letter to congressional leaders today, said the government will hit its statutory debt ceiling on Dec. 31. To avert a default, the Treasury will take action to create about $200 billion in headroom under the debt limit, which would normally last about two months.
www.bloomberg.com
Aug. 3, 2011 (Bloomberg) -- David Riley, head of sovereign ratings at Fitch Ratings, discusses the outlook for the U.S.'s AAA credit rating and the nation's economy. Riley speaks on Bloomberg Television's "InBusiness With Margaret Brennan." Rinse Repeat...Out of time (Source: Bloomberg) www.bloomberg.com
Aug. 3, 2011 (Bloomberg) -- Alexia Ash, head of North American forecasting at Exclusive Analysis, talks about the possibility of a U.S. credit downgrade following an agreement by lawmakers to raise the nation's debt ceiling. She speaks with Maryam Nemazee on Bloomberg Television's "The Pulse." Rinse Repeat...Out of time (Source: Bloomberg) www.bloomberg.com
Aug. 2, 2011 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research LLC, talks about the likelihood of a downgrade of the AAA rating of the U.S. government's debt and its impact on the economy and financial markets. Bianco speaks with Adam Johnson and Carol Massar on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart." Rinse Repeat...Out of time (Source: Bloomberg) www.bloomberg.com
IBM - Testing 100 day MA, Bearish candle Target 181.46Despite beating on earnings, IBM missed revenue targets last week
Bearish candle last week showing low demand
Look for a breakout below the 100 week MA for confirmation
Price targets shown on chart . First 181.46, then 168.31
Price far above 200 week SMA. Large potential downside or mean reversion
IBM WEEKLY SHORTIBM on the longer term is bullish
however it is loosing momentum and setting up for a
short. It needs to take out this fractal for the setup.
According to Bill Williams when price is below the Jaw balance line
it is easier for it to fall. This weeks candle looks ominous for the bulls.
Will sell call spreads above for safety rather than buying puts or debit spreads. It will also allow me to Condorize it with an Iron Condor to collect more credit
