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4MSTR trade ideas

MSTR....the force of gravity is strongMSTR is in news and buying up BTC at the top again with debt from retailers, I mean what could ever go wrong? Let's dive in to the downward channel and find out.....Yes, it looks like it broke the resistance line, but I think the Champagne effect of the new crypto friendly president is still in the bottle. Let's be patient and wait to see what happens. My sense is that it will drop like a ton of bricks and MSTZ (inverse) will rise like a falcon. If you want to make money in trading you can't think like everyone else (sheep).... Best of luck and always do your own due diligence!
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by antonini2002
SHORT MSTRThis setup for MicroStrategy (MSTR) is based on its close correlation to Bitcoin price action and a repeating fractal pattern from its last cycle high. The stock appears to be mirroring historical movements, providing a high-confidence opportunity for a short trade as patterns tend to repeat. The trade will focus on DCA into shorts with the expectation of a significant pullback. Trade Plan Details 1. DCA INTO SHORTS: DCA Range: $375–$450 This zone aligns with the overhead resistance and prior rejection levels. Approach: Gradually add to the short position if the price moves higher, staying within this range. 2. POSITION SIZING: Initial Entry: Start small at $375 to ensure flexibility. Scaling Strategy: Add more to the position as price approaches $400–$450. Example: $375: 1 unit $400: 2 units $425–$450: Max position 3. TARGETS: Short-term Target: $300 Mid-term Target: $250 Long-term Target: $185 These levels correspond to key Fibonacci retracements and historical price reactions from prior cycles. 4. STOP LOSS: Stop out above $475 (significant invalidation level). Rationale Fractal Pattern Repetition: The price action is nearly identical to the previous cycle high, making it likely to follow the same trajectory. Bitcoin Correlation: MSTR closely mirrors Bitcoin's performance. With BTC overextended, MSTR is vulnerable to a significant pullback. Valuation Concerns: MSTR's valuation heavily relies on Bitcoin holdings, which are unsustainable at these levels. Risk-Reward Ratio: Excellent R:R potential with clear downside targets.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by StayoA1
Opening (IRA): MSTR 2x225/2x240/460/490 Iron Condor... for a 7.00 credit. Comments: IV remains high here at 112.4%. Going "double double" (put spread half the width of the call spread, but 2 x the number of contracts) to accommodate skew. Earnings are on 2/4, so will probably want to get out before then. Metrics: Max Profit: 7.00 Buying Power Effect: 23.00 ROC at Max: 30.43% 50% Max: 3.50 ROC at 50% Max: 15.22% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll in untested side on side test to about half the delta of the tested side. Given earnings on the horizon, will naturally just money/take/run for less if presented with the opportunity.
NASDAQ:MSTR
by NaughtyPines
MSTR: Bullish Momentum Faces Key Resistance🔥 LucanInvstor's Strategy: 🩸 Short: Below $335.13, targeting $320 and $300. The MACD shows weakening momentum, and the price is approaching key resistance at $399.88. 🩸 Long: Above $363.01, aiming for $399.88 and $410. A breakout above this resistance could extend the bullish trend, but the weakening MACD signals uncertainty. 🔥 LucanInvstor's Commands: 🩸 Resistance: $399.88 — A key resistance level; if broken, the bullish trend may continue. 🩸 Support: $335.13 — A critical support level; a breakdown below this could lead to further declines. MicroStrategy's bullish momentum has paused near resistance. If the price holds above key support levels, a breakout could occur. However, the MACD indicates weakening bullish strength. 👑 "In moments of uncertainty, discipline and precision will guide your actions."
NASDAQ:MSTR
by LucanInvestor
Major Price Movement Incoming for MSTR!Signalist has detected a precise pattern in NASDAQ:MSTR trading activity, signaling that a substantial price movement is imminent. This isn’t a random fluctuation—it’s a carefully analyzed precursor to a significant market event. 📅 What to Expect: ⌛ Timeline: Anticipate a major move within the next 1 to 4 upcoming 3-hour candles. 📈 Monitor the Charts: Keep an eye on MSTR’s price action over the next few candles. Prepare Your Strategy: Whether you’re bullish or bearish, have your trading plan ready to capitalize on the move.
NASDAQ:MSTR
by SIGNALIST_indicator
1
Why MicroStrategy Will FailIf you listen to Michael Saylor, watch what he is doing with his financial engineering, and "learn about Bitcoin" it seems incredibly obvious that... MicroStrategy WILL NOT fail . At least, that is what I have been told by those that stand to gain massively from Bitcoin's price appreciation. It makes a lot of sense: corner the market of Bitcoin supply => force the price into "discovery" mode and everyone that believed in him and Bitcoin will be rich to the point they feel they deserve for being so prescient with their wisdom. The history of finance does not bode well for such absolute certainty... I began shorting Microstrategy with Puts over a year ago. "Being early and being wrong are often indistinguishable in trading/investing." I've lost money. But that did not dissuade me from calling BS on this scheme. Up until November 22, 2024 it had been a small trade that had not worked out so far. But on that day Saylor gave a CNBC interview (highly recommend looking it up) where he talked about their "core business", their "Bitcoin reactor", "selling volatility", and lots of complex financial jargon. To some, this might come across as brilliance. To me, having been in markets for a long time and studying their history it was patently obvious he was doing the classic, "if you can't amaze with brilliance then dazzle with bullshit" tactic. This was not a scam, nor a ponzi, nor a fraud... in absolute terms. We don't actually have a word for it. But it needs a derogatory term because people are going to lose money buying into it. I don't believe in karma. What I believe is that people cannot help be themselves and repeat their character flaws and patterns. This is not the first time Saylor has engaged in "financial engineering". Over 20 years ago MSTR (same company, same symbol) got caught by the SEC for doing much the same thing a Enron in their accounting practices. They were levied a big fine and the stock dropped -60% in a single day. Roughly two weeks later... the entire dot-com bubble imploded. Was MSTR the catalyst for this collapse? Unknown. But it certainly did not help keep the bubble going... Once again Saylor is exploiting the financial system. Or as gamers would call it; "clever use of game mechanics." There is nothing illegal about what he is doing (that is apparent). It's all out in the open. But it's leverage. Lots of leverage. MSTR ran out of simple debt and have found other ways to make cash to buy Bitcoin. Every week they keep "buying the top" as cheerleaders for this asset; Bitcoin. Trying to get others to join in their crusade to... I guess get it to $1 million now. Still valuing it in fiat terms while claiming to be changing finance (do they still want to do that anymore with Blackrock being their best backer? Unknown. I left all my Bitcoin Maxi chats as part of a New Year's Resolution to argue less with people on the Internet after 2024. When I left I was still defending my short while they were eagerly buying the dip. With all investments... time will tell. The Trade I have been purchasing Puts in different traunches with different strikes going out all the way to 2027. These long term Puts have their theta offset by selling shorter duration options to keep myself theta positive. This has been great over the last 2 months with increased IV. During the recent drop to $285 I actually found myself delta positive for a day. I wanted to get "more short" and added as much risk as I felt comfortable on the last push up to $380. Now delta negative/theta positive. Where I stop out: $390 is a key volume profile level topside. If price gets back above there I consider myself wrong... for now... and start to unwind risk or hedge more How I manage: I will continue to manage my delta/theta as long as IV makes it fun while always trying to stay negative. Buy long dated puts on pops up; Sell some Puts on every move down. The goal is for MSTR's debt to start getting called this year and they be forced to make some hard choices. This may require Bitcoin and/or the equities market to collapse in 1-2 years. If so; MSTR will be hurt tremendously.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by norok
40
Long MSTR: Watch for Key Breakouts Next Week - Key Insights: MicroStrategy's stock remains sensitive to Bitcoin's price fluctuations, with a current sentiment hinting at a potential recovery if Bitcoin stabilizes. A breakout above $338.76 could signal a bullish trend, while drops below $316.93 could lead to further losses. Anticipation surrounds a crucial shareholder vote on January 21st, which could significantly affect future stock performance by allowing more Bitcoin acquisitions. Investors should monitor Bitcoin's market dynamics and perform thorough risk assessments considering the stock's volatility. - Price Targets: Next week targets: T1: $340, T2: $360; Stop levels: S1: $316.93, S2: $310. - Recent Performance: MSTR has seen significant moves, declining approximately 40% from recent highs and reflecting investor concerns about its cryptocurrency-heavy strategy. The fluctuations in Bitcoin's valuation have directly impacted MSTR's stock performance, leading to increased volatility in trading activity. - Expert Analysis: Analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook for MSTR, balancing skepticism over its substantial Bitcoin emphasis with the potential for positive returns if Bitcoin prices rebound. Market sentiment nudges towards bullish, influenced by expected increases in Bitcoin value amidst investor speculation. The critical resistance and support levels will likely drive short-term trading decisions. - News Impact: The upcoming shareholder vote on January 21st is expected to be a weighty factor, potentially enabling MicroStrategy to pursue more aggressive Bitcoin acquisition strategies. The company has successfully raised capital through convertible debt, signaling a continued commitment to its ambitious investment plan amid scrutiny about volatility and regulatory changes in the cryptocurrency market. Investors are urged to assess risks associated with MicroStrategy's approach while tracking Bitcoin's performance closely.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by CrowdWisdomTrading
MSTR keeps digging its own grave.Well, since my last post about MSTR, the trolls have been having a field day. What a blast! §8-) I stand by my previous post about MSTR because, honestly, I see no future in this SCAM. Especially now that Bitcoin is teetering on the edge of a deep pullback (see my last post about Bitcoin for more). So, what do we have here? MSTR broke through the centerline and tried to claw its way back up. Then came the decisive breakdown. An open and close below the centerline paved the way for a trip south. Thanks to more hype and yadda-yadda reports, we saw a pullback up to the centerline — which, by the way, was perfectly in line with the trading framework of forks. But after that failed pullback, the price went the other way, and MSTR has been digging its way further south. For those who took profits at the 1/4 line, you can now look forward to PTG2 with confidence. Or, if you’re convinced that MSTR is headed for a reckoning with regulators in the medium term (although that seems doubtful since they all seem to be napping...), you might consider doubling down on your short position. Wishing everyone a profitable and exciting new trading week!
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
MSTR: Bearish Momentum with Potential for Pullback🔥 Potential Price Targets: 🩸 Near-term Goal: $327.91 (1-2 months) 🩸 Long-term Goal: $375.00 (3-4 months) 🔥 LucanInvstor's Strategy: 🩸 Short: Below $327.91, targeting $320 and $300. The MACD is negative, and the price is below the 9-day EMA, signaling further downside in the short term. 🩸 Long: Above $375.00, targeting $380 and $390. A breakout above resistance could resume the bullish trend, supported by the price being above the 200-day EMA. 🔥 LucanInvstor's Commands: 🩸 Resistance: $375.00 — A key resistance level; a break above this could trigger further upside. 🩸 Support: $327.91 — A critical support level; a breakdown below this could lead to a pullback. MicroStrategy faces bearish momentum in the short term, confirmed by the MACD. A breakdown below support may lead to further declines, while a breakout above resistance could drive the stock higher in the longer term. 👑 "Strategize with purpose and precision."
NASDAQ:MSTR
by LucanInvestor
SOY 2024 - MSTR Monthly Seasonality StatsThe chart for MSTR (MicroStrategy) displays significant volatility and seasonal trends from 2015 to 2024. The stock tends to show strong positive performance in January, with notable gains in 2020, 2021, and 2023, aligning with the broader market optimism at the start of the year. However, February and March have been less consistent, with MSTR seeing significant declines in those months during 2018, 2022, and 2023. April and May also display mixed returns, with notable performance spikes in 2019 and 2020, although May often struggles. The summer months of June and July have historically been volatile, with substantial drawdowns in 2022 and 2023, especially during crypto winter, a period of declining cryptocurrency values. August continues this trend of volatility, while September remains a weak month, consistently underperforming. One of the key factors affecting MSTR is its direct exposure to Bitcoin, as the company holds substantial Bitcoin reserves. This connection makes MSTR highly sensitive to cryptocurrency market fluctuations, contributing to its increased volatility, particularly during crypto downturns. Notably, MSTR’s performance has been volatile during periods of crypto market stress, such as in 2022 and 2023. The inclusion of MSTR into QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF) further magnifies this risk, as the ETF’s performance is now somewhat tied to MSTR's volatility. When MSTR’s Bitcoin holdings underperform or experience a significant decline, it can drag down the performance of QQQ , which could introduce more volatility into the tech-heavy ETF. This could lead to discrepancies in returns between QQQ and SPY , especially in periods when cryptocurrency struggles. The market's growing dependence on MSTR’s performance could make QQQ more sensitive to crypto market cycles, exacerbating its volatility compared to other more diversified ETFs like SPY .
NASDAQ:MSTR
by livingdracula
Possible downtrend for $MSTRWe observe that NASDAQ:MSTR is breaking out of a zone that could determine the downtrend. This is also visible in the Dynamic RSI, which shows a continuous decline. Additionally, the current news for BTC is not favorable, suggesting that BTC could gradually decrease. This might mark the beginning of an Altcoin season. Since NASDAQ:MSTR holds a significant amount of BTC, this has a substantial impact on its stock price, potentially causing it to fall into the resistance zone.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by larsnicog
$MSTR sub $200 before $1000+?NASDAQ:MSTR looks pretty bearish here. We're trading under a key support and it looks like it wants lower. I think if the next candle turns red, then we're likely to see a large selloff all the way down to the lower supports. If we can make it back up above this support level at $363, and close above it, it would be a trigger long. Then I think we're likely to see a large run all the way up to the upper resistances to 1000+. Let's see how the price action unfolds here.
NASDAQ:MSTR
by benjihyam
2