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4MSTR trade ideas

Microstrategy is absurdly overvaluedHello friends. Microstrategy is presenting us with an amazing shorting opportunity. The stock acts as a sort of closed-ended Bitcoin ETF, and it is now trading at about 250% above its NAV. To reach it's correct price, MSTR needs to fall down by over 70% to around $50. This will occur through further share dilution as the ATM is utilized to issue shares and purchase Bitcoins, as well as through retail traders slowly realizing that they are holding something dramatically overvalued and panic selling. Microstrategy has already increased it's share count by 20% so far this year to purchase more Bitcoins and take advantage of it's overvaluation. Now that it is even more overvalued, the dilution will accelerate and trigger a huge wave of panic for the retail traders.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by bowtrix
10
MicroStrategy Top Signal: Triple Bearish DivergenceThe MSTR stock just hit a new All-Time High and as soon as this happens the day turns full massive red. This action is indicative of a top. This is supported by a triple bearish divergence. 1) Volume bearish divergence. We see a new high happening today in price but a lower high on volume. 2) RSI bearish divergence. The RSI peaked in March 2024 and produced a lower high today, while MSTR produced a higher high. A very strong bearish divergence. 3) MACD bearish divergence. The MACD also peaked in March 2024. These divergences are also present on the weekly timeframe. ➢ MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR) is about to experience the biggest correction since 2021. Namaste.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by AlanSantana
32
Microstrategy Remains In The Bullish Trend; Positive For Crypto?MicroStrategy is a leading provider of business intelligence (BI) and analytics software. Founded in 1989, the company helps organizations analyze data to make informed business decisions. It's known for its robust platform that supports data discovery, predictive analytics, and mobile app. Additionally, MicroStrategy has made headlines for its significant investments in Bitcoin and both of them are still in the bullish trend. Microstrategy with ticker MSTR remains nicely bullish as expected and looks like 5th wave is in progress, which can push the price even higher with space up to 300 area, just be ware of short-term pullbacks. If that will be the case, then Crypto related stocks may cause a bullish breakout on Bitcoin as well due to their positive correlation.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by ew-forecast
The Power of Bitcoin: How MicroStrategy’s $MSTR Soared 1,620%MicroStrategy Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MSTR ) has experienced a massive surge in its stock price, climbing 15.9% on Friday's market trading and an additional 5% during Monday's premarket session. The stock broke out of a rectangular chart pattern, signaling a bullish move that could potentially lead to new all-time highs. This explosive growth is underpinned by the company’s strategic bet on Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ), which has not only outpaced the cryptocurrency itself but also the broader market, including tech giants like Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ), Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ), and the S&P 500. Let's dive into both the technical and fundamental factors driving this remarkable surge. MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Bet MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MSTR ) adopted a Bitcoin-centered strategy in August 2020 under the leadership of its executive chairman, Michael Saylor. This strategic pivot has yielded extraordinary results, with the stock gaining 1,620% since then. In comparison, Bitcoin itself has gained 426% during the same period, while the S&P 500 and the “Magnificent 7” tech giants, including Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia, have lagged with gains of 73% and 243%, respectively. As of September 2024, MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MSTR ) holds 252,220 bitcoins, making it the largest corporate holder of the cryptocurrency. In a recent acquisition, the company purchased 7,420 BTC for $458.2 million at an average price of $61,750 per coin, further solidifying its bullish stance on Bitcoin. Michael Saylor has made it clear that he believes Bitcoin is the ultimate asset for long-term wealth generation. His famous quote, “The only thing better than bitcoin is more bitcoin,” encapsulates the company’s philosophy. This bold strategy has clearly paid off, as NASDAQ:MSTR has consistently outperformed both the broader market and even some of the most successful tech companies. Bitcoin Outperformance & the Broader Market What makes MicroStrategy's performance particularly notable is its stark outperformance compared to Bitcoin and other major stocks. For example, while Bitcoin’s price has increased 426% since 2020, MicroStrategy’s stock price has skyrocketed 1,620%, leveraging the company's heavy exposure to Bitcoin as a strategic asset. This outperformance can also be attributed to the broader market sentiment toward Bitcoin, which has attracted institutional investors and long-term holders like MicroStrategy. As the company continues to acquire more BTC, it positions itself as a de facto Bitcoin ETF in the eyes of traditional market participants. In addition, NASDAQ:MSTR has far outpaced Nvidia’s impressive 1,107% increase and Arista Networks' 650% rise over the same period. These gains have positioned MicroStrategy as one of the most successful stocks in the past three years. Technical Analysis From a technical standpoint, MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MSTR ) has just broken out of a rectangular chart pattern, a significant bullish signal. A rectangle formation is characterized by a period of price consolidation between clearly defined horizontal support and resistance levels. In this case, NASDAQ:MSTR had been trading within a range, reflecting indecision among traders. However, Friday’s surge confirmed a breakout above the ceiling of the rectangular pattern, signaling that the bulls have regained control. This breakout is particularly significant because it often precedes further upward movement, potentially setting the stage for a new high. The Bullish Rectangle Pattern Explained A rectangle formation typically occurs after an asset experiences an uptrend, which then consolidates as traders weigh the next move. In the case of NASDAQ:MSTR , the stock has been consolidating within a tight range as investors digested the company’s continued Bitcoin purchases and broader market conditions. With the breakout above the rectangle, it suggests that traders are once again optimistic, and the stock may be heading toward further gains. As of Monday morning’s premarket session, NASDAQ:MSTR is up 5%, reinforcing the bullish sentiment. Another key technical indicator supporting NASDAQ:MSTR ’s bullish outlook is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is currently at 76.76. Typically, an RSI above 70 indicates that an asset is overbought, and caution is advised. However, during periods of strong momentum, stocks can remain overbought for extended periods, particularly during significant bullish trends. Moreover, the stock is exhibiting a gap-up pattern in the price chart, which is a strong indicator of momentum. Gap-ups occur when the price of an asset opens significantly higher than its previous close, often indicating a shift in sentiment or the release of market-moving news. In NASDAQ:MSTR 's case, the gap-up is driven by its breakout from the rectangle pattern, as well as renewed enthusiasm for Bitcoin. Whale Accumulation and Bitcoin’s Influence MicroStrategy’s stock is not just benefiting from technical patterns; the underlying Bitcoin market is also providing fundamental support. Recent data shows that whale activity has intensified around Bitcoin, with large holders accumulating 2.07 billion DOGE in a single week. While this specific data pertains to Dogecoin, it underscores a broader trend of renewed interest in cryptocurrencies by large investors, which often correlates with upward price movements in both the crypto market and crypto-exposed stocks like MicroStrategy. Conclusion: MicroStrategy’s breakout from the rectangular pattern, combined with its solid fundamental footing in Bitcoin, suggests that the stock could be setting a course for new highs. The company’s Bitcoin strategy has proven to be a game-changer, with the stock significantly outperforming both Bitcoin and the broader market since 2020. As Bitcoin continues to grow in institutional acceptance and more companies adopt digital assets as part of their strategies, MicroStrategy’s long-term bullish outlook remains intact. Investors will be keenly watching for the next moves in both Bitcoin and NASDAQ:MSTR , as the stock could continue to serve as a leading indicator of market sentiment around the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by DEXWireNews
MSTR leading, COIN not far behind.I believe lagging BTC proxies ill start to run to the upside. MSTR leading example and COIN will follow to fill the difference. COIN retest 190 and the run to 200. Its possible to see 300 in November. this looks similar to Price Action back in November 2023. We approaching 50D SMA. when price crosses over $180 COIN should have a nice lift off like MSTR at its 50D SMA when it crossed and closed above on Sept 19. Momentum appears bullish, MacD curling up.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by tomlau01
MSTR Short-term Short: Bitcoin Holdings and Market DynamicsNASDAQ:MSTR is currently approaching its all-time high of $200, presenting a potential short opportunity due to its significant divergence from COINBASE:BTCUSD performance. As of October 9, 2024, MSTR's market capitalization stands at approximately $36 billion, more than double the value of its Bitcoin holdings, which are valued at $15.64 billion based on 252,220 BTC at a price of about $62,000 per Bitcoin. MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Strategy: Aggressive and leveraged Bitcoin acquisition Continuously converting profits into BTC at market rates Long-term holding strategy Issued convertible senior notes to fund additional Bitcoin purchases Positioned as a leveraged Bitcoin investment The Role of Options in Driving MSTR's Price The options market plays a crucial role in driving MSTR's price higher than its Bitcoin holdings would suggest. Several dynamics contribute to this effect: Gamma Squeezes: As MSTR's price approaches strike prices of outstanding call options, market makers buy more shares to hedge, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of buying pressure. Leverage Effect: Options allow traders to control larger positions with less capital, amplifying price movements in the underlying stock. Speculative Interest: High volatility in MSTR attracts options traders, increasing overall market activity and potentially exacerbating price swings. Delta Hedging: Continuous adjustments by options dealers can add to price momentum. Implied Volatility: High implied volatility leads to higher option prices, influencing trader behavior and perceptions of the stock's value. These multivariate options market forces, combined with MSTR's unique position as a publicly traded company with significant Bitcoin holdings, have created a volatile and potentially disconnected trading environment. The current rally in MSTR's stock price, despite Bitcoin's recent correction, may be partly driven by these options dynamics. However, this situation also presents the possibility of a sharp reversal if Bitcoin fails to recover quickly or if the options-driven momentum slows. Key Considerations for Traders: Interplay between MSTR's core business and its Bitcoin holdings Impact of MSTR's leveraged position on potential gains and risks Influence of options market dynamics on stock price Current divergence between MSTR's price and Bitcoin's movement Potential for short-term correction if Bitcoin doesn't recover quickly Remember: This idea is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by XrayTrades
1
$MSTR Mother of all short squeezes done?MicroStrategy ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) has recently drawn attention as its stock appears to be undergoing a potential short squeeze, causing rapid price surges. A short squeeze occurs when heavily shorted stocks experience significant upward pressure as short sellers rush to cover their positions, which drives the price even higher. This buying frenzy, often fueled by both institutional and retail investors, can result in volatile price movements. MicroStrategy, known for its substantial Bitcoin holdings, has seen increased volatility in tandem with Bitcoin’s price fluctuations, making it a prime target for speculative trading. Additionally, analysts are observing a potential megaphone top pattern forming on NASDAQ:MSTR ’s stock chart. A megaphone top, also known as a broadening formation, is a technical pattern that signals increasing volatility and wider price swings, typically seen as a precursor to a market reversal. It forms when the stock price reaches higher highs and lower lows, resembling a megaphone shape. This pattern indicates growing indecision among investors, which could lead to a sharp decline once the uptrend breaks. The combination of a short squeeze and a megaphone top pattern points to a high-risk trading environment for MicroStrategy in the near term, warranting caution for investors.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by UnknownUnicorn35181237
7
MSTR Swing IdeaNASDAQ:MSTR , COINBASE:BTCUSD MSTR swing idea. Earnings are in the way here, and I have no interest in hitching a ride. The IV is jacked, but I do still like an ER run up idea, with the likely target being 200. Continued strength could see the push higher though, especially if BTC breaks out of it's falling wedge on the weekly. Would still plan to enter at 178.24 and trim at 183.70, but I will be looking at a vert spread instead of regular calls. Oct25 +180c/-190c for around 3.68 with the underlying at 178.24.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by D_Rockefeller
MSTR/BTCHi, this chart is Microstrategy denominated in Satoshis. You can see that I changed the currency in the drop-down menu in the top, right-hand corner. So what do we see? Saylor turning bullish sats. It’s always wonderful to find something that is bullish sats, because if it’s not bullish sats, then there’s no reason to be in it. CIFR is also looking like it can turn net bullish Sats, so I have a position in that. And now, Yesterday, I have a position in MSTU, which is 2XMSTR ETF with a 2% daily decay. One strategy might be to sell MSTU when MSTR/BTC reaches your upside target. That is $770 MSTR at today’s Bitcoin price, or $1500 MSTU, and it’s $44 at the week close. Good luck out there traders.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by Shammus01
Opening (IRA): MSTR Nov 15th 121 Monied Covered Call... for a 111.20 debit. Comments: High IV (88.8%). Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put with the built-in defense of the short call. Back into MSTR after taking off my previous November setup in profit. (See Post Below). This has earnings on 11/6, so I'll be looking to take it off before then ... . Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 111.20 Max Profit: 9.80 ROC at Max: 8.81% 50% Max: 4.90 ROC at 50% Max: 4.41%
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by NaughtyPines
MSTR is well prepared for a BOOM season -- may retest 450 soon!MSTR has corrected extensively since peaking at 450 range last July. Now, LONG POSITIONS has started accumulating at the current price range based on daily metrics. Significant net buy volume has been registered -- almost overtaking average numbers this past few days. This a definite sign that a new base is currently being cemented for a new ascend movement soon -- for the long term. It is currently bouncing off a 78.6 FIB level with precision - a major order block support. Expect some significant upside volatility from the present levels. Spotted at 325.0 TAYOR. Safeguard funds always. ------------------------------------- SOME RELATED NEWS: MicroStrategy Bought 5,445 Bitcoin for $150M Since August The software ompany now holds nearly $4.68 billion worth of the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. By Shaurya Malwa AccessTimeIconSep 25, 2023 at 8:25 p.m. Updated Sep 26, 2023 at 12:40 a.m. Software developer MicroStrategy (MSTR) purchased nearly $150 million worth of bitcoin (BTC) between Aug.1 and Sept.24, it said in a Monday regulatory filing. "MicroStrategy, together with its subsidiaries, acquired approximately 5,445 bitcoins for approximately $147.3 million in cash, at an average price of approximately $27,053 per bitcoin, inclusive of fees and expenses," the company said in the filing.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by JSAL
4
MSTR returns to a bullish status ? What a hype on the tech values ! After a correction and a consolidation materialised by the range, MicroStrategy will return to a bullish status ? My idea is the following : - Technically, we have break the most important Fibonnacci's value : 61.8% - Fundamentally, all economic figures are in green (inflation decreases, rates too). That's why I will trade this stocks by waiting the pull-back on 61.8% with the following inputs : - SL just below 50% - TP #1 is 100% of Fibonnacci movement. - TP #2 is the all time high This is a short-term trade as a swing position - not an investment idea. Take care GUYS !!
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by QuentinKister