Get started
PELOTON INTERACTIVEPELOTON INTERACTIVEPELOTON INTERACTIVE

PELOTON INTERACTIVE

No trades
See on Supercharts
Overview Financials News
Ideas
Discussions Technicals Forecast Seasonals Bonds

4PTON trade ideas

1/7/25 - $pton - Ambiguous at $9, 2025 R/R poor1/7/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:PTON Ambiguous at $9, 2025 R/R poor - have followed this yoga pants-wearing, starbucks guzzling, taylor swift blastin' name for some time - first, the balance sheet/ net debt levels require some obvious cash flow generation to be neutralized... especially after a 2.5-3x move from floor - on one hand the marginal change in sales (from -ve to +ve, probably in 4Q) is already baked in the calorie-free, guilt-free cake. - and EBITDA mgn already forecasted at DD for this year and next, with not much expansion on the top line (which will at this stage take at LEAST 2-3 Q's - probably more - to get visibility on and materially alter real mkt consensus). - so even if i assume 200 mm in 2026 fcf (another 20% bump to already likely bullish #s, i can only get to mid 3's - and for a lot of risk on a stretched out maxed out dopamine busted consumer). "yes" their B2B biz is awesome - top of the line - i love it. i do think mgmt gets a B+ all in... - but friends don't let friends buy high teens EBITDA multiples for low DD's EBITDA growth on tough balance sheets, a name that's already worked (just don't chase it!) and a not-need-to-own name. if u like consumer discretionary just own NYSE:YETI , which is hard enough to own in this environment, but such a low-key sleep-at-night no bears in yo food middle of the night name). as you can tell it's late. i'm reviewing some oldies i've never written up. maybe a bit more wit. excuse the hyperbole (i'm not restricted in terms of my investment committee anymore so i let it rip these days). be well <3 V
NASDAQ:PTON
by VROCKSTAR
1
PTON Analysis: Dark Pool Levels & Trade SetupsThis chart analysis focuses on Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON), observed on the daily timeframe, with a strong emphasis on institutional activity highlighted by Dark Pool Levels (represented by white dashed lines). The stock is currently at a critical juncture, where the price action is consolidating near a significant dark pool level ($9.38). This suggests a potential setup for a decisive move, either continuing the bullish trend seen earlier or reversing into a bearish correction. By integrating key technical indicators—such as Exponential Moving Averages (8 EMA and 21 EMA), pivot levels, and volume analysis—this analysis aims to provide a clear trading plan, including profit targets and stop-loss levels, for both bullish and bearish scenarios. The focus is on aligning with institutional behavior and leveraging price action around pivotal levels to make well-informed decisions. Trend and Price Action The stock experienced a bullish breakout in early September, as the price moved above the 8 EMA and established a strong uptrend. The bullish momentum was further confirmed by the price staying consistently above the 21 EMA, signaling institutional interest and strong upward momentum. Recently, the price has entered a consolidation phase, trading within a range near the critical dark pool level of $9.38, suggesting indecision or accumulation by larger players. Key Indicators 8 EMA and 21 EMA: The 8 EMA (yellow line) has acted as a reliable support throughout the uptrend. It remains a critical level to watch for trend continuation. The 21 EMA (blue line) serves as a secondary support and trend confirmation tool. A break below this level may signal a trend reversal. Pivot Points: Resistance Levels: R1 ($10.53): The first major resistance, where the price has struggled to break through during the consolidation phase. R2 ($11.28) and R3 ($12.49): Potential targets if the bullish trend resumes. Support Levels: S1 ($8.10): Key support below the current price. A breakdown here could trigger a bearish move. S2 ($7.35) and S3 ($6.13): Deeper support levels for potential downside targets. Dark Pool Levels: The white dashed lines represent areas of significant institutional activity. These levels often act as zones of support or resistance, with the current level at $9.38 being a key area to watch. Volume: Volume spikes during November indicate strong participation by institutional traders, likely around dark pool levels. Current volume shows signs of normalization, suggesting a period of consolidation or preparation for the next big move. Patterns Observed The chart shows a rising channel (from September to November), indicating steady bullish momentum. However, the price has broken out of this channel and entered a sideways consolidation near $9.38. The consolidation near a dark pool level is often a precursor to a breakout or breakdown, as institutional traders accumulate or distribute their positions. Bullish and Bearish Scenarios Bullish Scenario: Key Factors: The price remains above the $9.38 dark pool level and the 8 EMA, showing bullish momentum. A breakout above R1 ($10.53) could trigger a run toward R2 ($11.28) and potentially R3 ($12.49). Entry Point: Enter a long position above $9.50, confirming a bounce off the dark pool level. Profit Targets: First target: $10.53 (R1). Second target: $11.28 (R2). Stretch target: $12.49 (R3). Stop Loss: Place a stop-loss below $9.00, as a breach would invalidate the bullish setup. Bearish Scenario: Key Factors: A sustained breakdown below the $9.38 dark pool level and the 8 EMA, with volume confirmation, would indicate bearish pressure. A break below S1 ($8.10) could lead to a deeper decline toward S2 ($7.35) or even S3 ($6.13). Entry Point: Enter a short position below $9.30, confirming a breakdown. Profit Targets: First target: $8.10 (S1). Second target: $7.35 (S2). Stretch target: $6.13 (S3). Stop Loss: Place a stop-loss above $9.50, as it would invalidate the bearish setup. Conclusion PTON is at a critical juncture, consolidating near a dark pool level at $9.38. A breakout above $10.53 could reignite the bullish momentum toward higher resistance levels, while a breakdown below $9.38 could trigger a bearish move to key support zones. This setup offers a clear trading plan with well-defined entry points, profit targets, and stop-loss levels, allowing for strategic risk management.
NASDAQ:PTON
by thedarkpooltrader
Peloton Shares Spike 21% As Turnaround Plan Takes Hold Overview The Bike and Tread maker has been working to improve its balance sheet and looks to be more focused on profitability than growth. The connected fitness company posted quarterly results that came in well ahead of expectations and delivered a mixed outlook for the year ahead. Peloton (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:PTON ) has returned to sales growth for the first time in nine quarters. Peloton (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:PTON ) said on Thursday It is digging itself out of the red and making progress out a slight sales increase for the first time in nine quarters as it slashed its overall losses. The beleaguered connected fitness company, which two board members have run since former CEO Barry McCarthy resigned earlier this year, saw sales grow by 0.2% during its fiscal fourth quarter. While only a modest uptick, it’s the first time Peloton (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:PTON ) posted year-over-year revenue growth since its 2021 holiday quarter. Peloton (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:PTON ) likewise indicated it’s ready to focus on profitability over growth with significant cuts to its marketing and sales spending and meaningful increases to free cash flow and adjusted EBITDA. Those cuts helped Peloton (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:PTON ) narrow its quarterly losses to $30.5 million from $241.1 million in the year-ago period. Peloton (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:PTON ) shares rose more than 21% in Thursday's trading. based on a survey of analysts by LSEG, Here’s how the Bike and Tread maker performed compared with what Wall Street was anticipating: Loss per share: 8 cents vs. 17 cents expected Revenue: $644 million vs. $631 million expected For the three-month period that ended June 30, Peloton (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:PTON ) significantly narrowed its losses. The company posted a loss of $30.5 million, or 8 cents per share, compared with a loss of $241.8 million, or 68 cents per share, a year earlier. Sales rose to $643.6 million, up about 0.2% from $642.1 million a year earlier. That’s only a $1.5 million increase, but Peloton (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:PTON ) did it at a time when sales are typically a bit slower for the company, because the quarter bleeds into the summer when people are more focused on going out and traveling than working out. The last time Peloton (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:PTON ) delivered YoY sales growth was during its holiday season in 2021, which is typically the company’s strongest quarter so far. Secondary Market Gains During the quarter, sales for Peloton’s pricy connected fitness hardware fell about 4%, continuing a trend for the company. But subscription revenue rose by 2.3%, and the segment’s gross margin increased by 1 percentage point. Though hardware sales were down, Peloton (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:PTON ) is growing its subscription revenue through the secondary market where people can buy used stationary bikes for a fraction of the cost of a new one. During the quarter, subscription revenue from hardware purchased on the secondary market grew 16% year over year. While hardware sales have hurt Peloton’s overall performance, sales for its Tread are growing after it overcame a costly recall. During the quarter, sales from Peloton’s treadmill portfolio grew 42% YoY. Peloton (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:PTON ) is also seeing some positive omens in its Bike rental program, which allowed it to clear through a glut of inventory. During the quarter, average net monthly paid subscription churn for rentals was down 1.1 percentage points. Demand has been so steady, it no longer has the refurbished inventory levels necessary to supply that side of the program. The company ceased offering its original Bike rental program on Aug. 1 and since then, has seen demand grow for its Bike+ rental, refurbished original Bike sales and financed new Bike sales. “These alternative programs have stronger unit economics than original Bike rental, with more cash paid upfront and a stronger retention profile,” the company said in its shareholder letter. Ever since Peloton’s pandemic heyday came to an end, the company has struggled to generate free cash flow and ensure it has enough assets on its balance sheet to cover its many liabilities. Earlier this year, it announced a sprawling restructuring plan that included cutting 15% of the company’s global workforce to achieve $200 million in annualized cost savings by the end of fiscal 2025. Those efforts are starting to bear fruit. During the quarter, Peloton (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:PTON ) delivered adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow for the second consecutive quarter – a feat it had not pulled off since the height of the Covid-19 pandemic. It posted $70 million of adjusted EBITDA, far more than the $53 million that analysts had expected, according to StreetAccount. That metric was up $105 million compared with the year-ago period and $64 million quarter over quarter. The company also generated $26 million in free cash flow, compared with negative $74 million in the year-ago period and $8 million in the prior quarter. Improvements to Peloton’s balance sheet come after the company completed massive refinancing of its debt that staved off a looming liquidity crunch and pushed out its debt maturities by several years. Peloton (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:PTON ) noted that the search for its next CEO is “top of mind for all stakeholders.” “The process is well underway and we look forward to sharing more when we have an announcement,” it said. Profit over growth For the year ahead, Peloton (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:PTON ) is planning to invest in its hardware and software to deliver a better user experience, among other initiatives. However, its guidance assumes that investments in these new initiatives “will not deliver subscriber growth within the fiscal year,” indicating Peloton (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:PTON ) may finally be shifting its focus away from growth in favor of profitability and free cash flow generation. That’s evidenced by its reductions to sales and marketing spending — an expense that has long dragged down Peloton’s balance sheet and has been criticized as being too high for the company’s size. During the quarter, Peloton (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:PTON ) cut sales and marketing spending by $25.5 million, or 19% year over year. It said it expects to continue to make reductions to its marketing budget throughout fiscal 2025. For the current quarter, Peloton (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:PTON ) is projecting sales to be worse than Wall Street expected but is guiding to higher-than-forecast adjusted EBITDA. The company said it anticipates sales to be between $560 million and $580 million, compared with estimates of $609 million, according to LSEG. It’s expecting to post adjusted EBITDA of $50 million to $60 million, compared with estimates of $45 million, according to StreetAccount. Street Account analysts had expected the number of connected fitness subscribers to be 2.96 million during the current quarter, but Peloton projects a range of 2.88 million to 2.89 million instead. According to LSEG, for the full year Peloton ( NASDAQ:PTON ) expects sales to be between $2.4 billion and $2.5 billion, compared with estimates of $2.7 billion. Technical Outlook As of the time of writing, Peloton (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:PTON ) stock has experienced a significant increase of 24%. This rise has led to the stock being currently overbought, as indicated by its Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands at 71. The daily price chart shows a gap up pattern, which is a strong indicator of a potential bullish reversal in the stock's performance. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is recorded at 0.097, which points to a slight bullish momentum in the market. This suggests that there is some upward pressure on the stock, reflecting a positive sentiment among investors. In addition to these indicators, it is noteworthy that Peloton's stock is trading above both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, reinforcing the notion that the stock is currently in a strong upward trend. This combination of factors highlights the current bullish outlook for Peloton in the market.
NASDAQ:PTONLong
by DEXWireNews
PTON Peloton Buyout or Short Squeeze PotentialPTON Peloton Interactive is currently under the spotlight due to a significant uptick in call options activity. This increased activity is focused on the $4 and $5 strike prices, with expirations on June 21 and July 19. Market analysts and investors are buzzing with speculation that this might signal an imminent buyout, takeover, merger, or even a short squeeze. Over the past week, Peloton has seen a notable surge in call options volume at the $4 and $5 strike prices. This heightened activity suggests that traders are betting on a substantial upward movement in Peloton's stock price in the very near term. June 21 Expiration: Calls expiring this Friday indicate that some traders are expecting a major announcement or significant stock price movement within days. July 19 Expiration: The larger volume of calls expiring next month shows longer-term optimism, potentially linked to upcoming strategic moves by the company. Technically, Peloton’s chart is exhibiting highly bullish patterns that support the possibility of a breakout: Falling Wedge: The stock is at the end of a falling wedge pattern, a technical indicator often associated with impending bullish reversals. Double Bottom Pattern: Additionally, Peloton is forming a double bottom, another bullish pattern that indicates strong support and a potential for a significant upward movement. These patterns suggest a robust technical setup for a breakout, with targets potentially as high as $6.50. Buyout or Merger Speculation The speculation surrounding a potential buyout by AAPL, AMZN, NKE, or a merger, is not unfounded. Peloton, despite its struggles in the past year, remains a highly attractive acquisition target due to its strong brand and substantial user base. A buyout or merger could provide the necessary capital infusion and strategic direction to reinvigorate the company’s growth trajectory. Short Squeeze Potential Adding fuel to the speculative fire is the potential for a short squeeze. If the stock begins to rise rapidly due to buyout rumors or technical breakouts, short sellers may be forced to cover their positions, driving the stock price even higher in a feedback loop of buying pressure.
NASDAQ:PTONLong
by TopgOptions
PTON potentials for future investmentIn my experience, a stock trader should have a watchlist that is set up in weekly timeframe and so he/she has enough time to monitor them and get the concept of movements and its investors and many many other aspects till the due time that want to enter a position. I never trader in zoomed in views and trapped in small timeframes unless I had counted from upper degrees. Another point I consider about a security or instrument to put it in my watch list is the consistency, harmony and gaps of it that shows my the manner and psychology of its investors and traders. (There are enough instrument in the market that you can ignore ugly ones). So as a good sample you can put PTON in your watch list. As it is beautifully obvious it has been finishing a long time declined impulse wave in that shape of Expanding Diagonal and I will monitor it for its future movements and in the due time will get in it. Thanks
NASDAQ:PTON
by AMA_FX
Peloton Interactive, Inc.Overview: Peloton Interactive has recently undergone significant volatility and bearish trends, as evidenced by a substantial decline in its share price. The company's stock has faced a dramatic downturn, marked by a recent price of $2.91, which reflects a sharp decline of 9.63% on the day. This movement is part of a broader bearish trend highlighted by a series of declining peaks and troughs on the daily chart. Price Action and Volume: The stock has consistently posted lower highs and lower lows, which is indicative of a strong downtrend. The recent price action has broken below the support level at $3.20, suggesting further downside potential. Volume has spiked on down days, confirming the bearish sentiment among investors. High volume associated with price declines is a bearish indicator, reflecting strong selling pressure. Moving Averages: Short-term moving averages (10-day and 20-day) are trending below longer-term moving averages (50-day and 200-day), which signals bearish momentum. The 50-day moving average has acted as a dynamic resistance, pushing the price lower. Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Other Oscillators: The RSI is currently at 33.79, indicating that the stock is approaching oversold territory but not yet there, leaving room for further declines. The MACD is below the signal line and negative, which supports the bearish setup. Other oscillators like the Stochastic RSI and Williams % Range are near oversold levels, suggesting caution for any potential recovery in the short term. Support and Resistance Levels (Pivot Points): Current support (S1) at $2.91, with further downside support found at $2.56 (S2) and $2.00 (S3). Resistance levels are significantly higher with immediate resistance (R1) at $4.02, indicating a considerable gap that needs to be covered for any bullish reversal. Ichimoku Cloud and Fibonacci Levels: The price is currently well below the Ichimoku cloud, which is an indication of a bearish trend. Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent high to low indicate critical resistance near the $3.46 (23.6% retracement) and $3.98 (38.2% retracement) levels. Price Prediction and Trading Strategy: Given the strong bearish indicators, a speculative price target over the next quarter could see Peloton potentially testing the $2.00 mark, corresponding with the classic pivot S3 level. Investors should consider short positions at current levels with a stop loss slightly above the first resistance at $3.46 to limit potential losses from unexpected bullish reversals. For those looking for long opportunities, it would be prudent to wait for a confirmed break above the $3.46 resistance level with high volume, suggesting a potential shift in sentiment and momentum. A protective stop loss should be considered below $3.20 in this scenario, aligning with recent support turned resistance levels. Conclusion: Peloton's stock demonstrates a clear bearish trend with significant downside risks. Investors and traders should monitor volume and price action closely for signs of stabilization or reversal, but the current setup favors short strategies with careful risk management. The outlined levels provide a framework for potential entry and exit points to optimize trade setups amid ongoing volatility.
NASDAQ:PTON
by AxiomEx
3
Peloton CEO McCarthy Steps Down, Company Set to Cut 15% JobsPeloton Interactive Inc. ( NASDAQ:PTON ) has announced the departure of Chief Executive Officer Barry McCarthy, amidst plans to streamline operations by slashing approximately 15% of its global workforce. The company's stock surged by approximately 9% in early trading following the announcement, reflecting investor optimism in the wake of the restructuring efforts. McCarthy, a seasoned executive with notable stints at Spotify Technology SA and Netflix Inc., has spent the past two years at the helm of Peloton ( NASDAQ:PTON ), spearheading a comprehensive overhaul aimed at reinvigorating the company's growth trajectory. Despite his efforts, Peloton has faced challenges in scaling its business amidst intensifying competition and shifting consumer preferences. The New York-based fitness equipment maker, once hailed as a pandemic darling, has witnessed a dramatic reversal of fortunes in recent years, with its stock plummeting by over 90% from its peak valuation. However, amidst the turbulence, Peloton ( NASDAQ:PTON ) remains steadfast in its commitment to innovation and adaptation. The restructuring program unveiled by Peloton ( NASDAQ:PTON ) aims to achieve annual expense reductions exceeding $200 million, as the company seeks to realign its cost structure with its current business size. This includes a strategic reassessment of its retail showroom footprint and the elimination of approximately 400 jobs. Moreover, Peloton is actively engaged in refinancing discussions with leading financial institutions, underscoring its commitment to strengthening its financial position. In addition to the organizational restructuring, Peloton ( NASDAQ:PTON ) is refining its product offerings and market approach to better resonate with evolving consumer needs. The company's partnership with Hyatt Hotels Corp. to introduce Peloton bikes in hotel facilities highlights the companies commitment to expanding its customer base and driving sales growth. Despite the headwinds, Peloton ( NASDAQ:PTON ) remains optimistic about its prospects. The company has narrowed its revenue guidance for the fiscal year, reflecting a pragmatic assessment of current market dynamics. Moreover, Peloton is doubling down on its international expansion efforts, adopting a targeted and efficient approach to penetrate new markets while leveraging its global capabilities. Technical Outlook Peloton ( NASDAQ:PTON ) stock closed Wednesday's trading on a clean slate up 3.54% gains with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 40.55. However, traders ought to be cautious NASDAQ:PTON stock is trading below the 200, 100 and 50-day Moving Averages (MA) respectively.
NASDAQ:PTONLong
by DEXWireNews
Peloton Faces Uphill Battle as Sales Decline PersistsPeloton Interactive Inc., ( NASDAQ:PTON ) finds itself grappling with yet another setback as the fitness technology company anticipates a sales decline in the current quarter, contrary to Wall Street expectations. Despite efforts to revive its fortunes after a pandemic-induced slump, Peloton's ( NASDAQ:PTON ) comeback initiatives have fallen short, leading to a 15% drop in its shares. The company's struggles highlight the persistent challenges it faces in reigniting growth after the stay-at-home orders boost during the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic. A Disappointing Outlook: Peloton's ( NASDAQ:PTON ) projected revenue of $700 million to $725 million for the fiscal third quarter falls well below the $755.6 million expected by analysts. This forecast signals a decline from the year-earlier period's $749 million, underscoring the company's difficulty in bouncing back. CEO Barry McCarthy acknowledges the hurdles, stating, "We continue to explore ways to ignite growth across multiple vectors. Several of these new initiatives have performed strongly. Some have not." Failed Initiatives and Market Withdrawal: One notable setback for Peloton ( NASDAQ:PTON ) is the high-profile push into the college market, initiated through a partnership with the University of Michigan. McCarthy reveals that this effort failed to generate sufficient sales and will be phased out. The company had hoped to capitalize on selling fitness equipment to colleges, alumni, and boosters but faced a significant flop. McCarthy concedes, "What seemed like a good idea didn’t deliver. So instead of launching additional co-branded bikes in school colors, we will end-of-life this hardware initiative." Subscriber Decline and Revenue Challenges: Peloton ( NASDAQ:PTON ) expects paid app subscriptions to decrease by about 13% in the current quarter, with paid subscribers to the app declining by 16% to 718,000. The company's struggle to grow "at scale" remains a significant challenge, and McCarthy suggests that revenue won't show signs of improvement until the fourth quarter. Peloton ( NASDAQ:PTON ) has been contending with declining revenue for two years, emphasizing the prolonged impact of the post-pandemic slump. Free Cash Flow and Customer Service Concerns: One crucial aspect of McCarthy's turnaround strategy is achieving positive free cash flow, which now appears unlikely in fiscal 2024. Although there is optimism about reaching the threshold in the fourth quarter, Peloton ( NASDAQ:PTON ) faces headwinds in meeting this key goal. McCarthy also addresses quality problems in customer service, admitting that these issues have "tarnished" the Peloton brand. The company is currently undergoing a "reboot" in its customer service division, promising new management, systems, and third-party vendors to enhance member experience. Positive Indicators Amid Challenges: Despite the challenges, McCarthy highlights positive aspects of the business, including a 72% increase in sales through retailers like Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. during the holidays. The bike rental program is expected to see 100% growth in fiscal 2024, and the relaunch of the high-end treadmill, following a product recall three years ago, experienced "significantly stronger" demand than anticipated. Conclusion: Peloton's ( NASDAQ:PTON ) recent struggles underscore the uphill battle the company faces in returning to growth amid a persisting sales decline. CEO Barry McCarthy's candid acknowledgment of challenges, failed initiatives, and the commitment to a turnaround strategy reveals the complexity of the company's current situation. As Peloton ( NASDAQ:PTON ) navigates through this turbulent period, its ability to address customer service concerns, adapt to market demands, and successfully implement growth initiatives will play a crucial role in shaping its future trajectory.
NASDAQ:PTONShort
by DEXWireNews