4SPCE trade ideas
SPCE newsThe first powered test from Spaceport America was scheduled for December but computer trouble caused by electromagnetic interference prevented the spaceship’s rocket from firing properly. The test was rescheduled for February but then scrapped as the team continued working on the interference issue. Colglazier said the flight now is scheduled for May.
Fundamentals: Whenever a new test flight was announced, the NYSE:SPCE price increased.
Technical Analysis: MACD crossing, we can see reflection from the support and overcoming resistance
SPCE - LONG - PRICE TARGET 31.72 - 32.75LONG POSITION ENTERED AT $30.70
SPCE:
Lots of technical confluence present in the 30m chart of SPCE. As you can tell in the chart, there is a big fat double-top which seems to have failed. This is your classic example of "what should happen, doesn't." (Peter Reznicek). This seems to be a common theme with SPCE latley, as you can see you had two previous 30m candle break below the trendline but price still continued upwards. When this occurs you should prepare to the exact opposite of what should've happened, in this case go long as the price should of went lower. In a solid double top, you should see the price break below on the second touch of the neckline. This is not the case as it broke out of a 30m balance zone to the upside, while also bouncing off the trendline indicating a bullish trend continuation. RSI is continuing upward. Also looks like you have people loading up long last minute with large volume on the last 30m of the day.
There's really two options here: The double top has failed, continues upward to form a triple top(more likely IMO), or it breaks all the way up to the top of the trendline. The only objection I have to the triple top is the volume profile shows that price has not stayed around that range for a long duration and it's possible it'lI gap up right past it Monday morning to get closer to the Point of Control. If a gap-up above 31.70 doesnt occur Monday, I plan on taking profits at the 31.70 mark as the price will likely quickly reverse if it does form a triple top. I will re-enter if the triple top fails at the 31.70 mark and set my stop slightly under and target the upper trendline at $32.75.
Thank you for your time, for the sake of increasing my own personal knowledge, while also sharing what i've learned so far, you can look forward to more of my technical analysis in the future. Weekends will be the days I will publish. I would like harsh criticism from any fellow traders, especially more experienced ones. Feel free to give me your thoughts. Thanks and have a happy Easter!!
Virgin Galactic, will it do it again? It usually bounces between 60 and 170 percent, previously it has respected the buy and sell signals of the squeeze momentum indicator, if repeated it could return to a minimum of 40 dollars and a maximum to the range of 50-60 during the next quarter.
It has a strong support around $23 and a significant resistance at $35, if it passes it, we should expect a greater rise. And in the other case, if it breaks the support, the next bottom is at 20 dollars, more than that it is practically impossible for it to fall.
NYSE:SPCE
Double BottomSPCE had an ugly top but has formed a double bottom. So far SPCE has not breeched support.
Watching/no recommendation
Possible long entry level 30.60
Possible Targets 48.5 55
Possible long term targets 74.5 to 85
SPCE: Is there a light at the end of this tunnel? I think so! at least partially. Based on my previous analysis, and I still think that SPCE will go further down before it goes back up by their next test flight date on May 21st.
That makes the 2nd scenario (blue line) more likely especially since we've been going through a period of consolidation under 200 MA making (bearish trend), and there is a gap to be filled (see the white boxes). This is my 2nd scenario because I don't like to see SPCE breaking under the green trendline and get crushed (temporarily!).
The first scenario is preferable in the short term because it would break out of the head-and-shoulder pattern but then would go to make a double top, which is another bearish signal. In that case, it should break below the green trend line and test the red one down below. This scenario also makes sense because growth stocks like this are under pressure of yields going up to 2% by the summer, and the fact that we are in a bearish market, at least in this sector.
At the end of both scenarios, SPCE should go up before the test flight. That's what has happened in the past, and is expected to happen by May. But the problem is that I don't think it would hit the previous ATH because they've been canceling flights way too often and the management has lost investors' confidence in their stock. Not to mention Chamath has cashed out! But, there is a chance for SPCE to reach ATH and surpass it if the flight is successful or this ticker will fall down into the gutter!
So what to do now? I am going to wait and see where this accumulation (blue MACD box) is taking us. Is it going to break below the green line or it starts to follow the first scenario? In either case, do your own research and don't make any decision based on this analysis. The stock market is unpredictable and whoever says it's not is either an idiot or is lying. I'm not a financial expert and this is not trading advice.
P.S. I've seen people drawing inverted cup and handle patterns and say after the handle is formed this will go up! but... surprise! an inverted cup and handle is a bearish pattern (look it up!) and if the handle is formed, my 1st scenario is confirmed.
Thanks,
Virgin GalacticMission:
Our mission – to be the spaceline for Earth – means we focus on using space for good while delivering an unparalleled customer experience. Through our work, we believe we can help inspire future generations and make it possible to see our beautiful home planet from a new perspective.
Recent News:
1. Virgin Galactic today unveiled the Company’s first Spaceship III in its growing fleet, VSS Imagine. The spaceship showcases Virgin Galactic’s innovation in design and astronaut experience. Imagine also demonstrates progress toward efficient design and production, as Virgin Galactic works to scale the business for the long-term. VSS Imagine will commence ground testing, with glide flights planned for this summer from Spaceport America in New Mexico.
2. VSS Imagine will commence ground testing, with glide flights this summer
Breakthrough livery design allows Imagine to mirror the surrounding environment as it moves from Earth to Space
Manufacturing ramps up on next SpaceShip III in the fleet, VSS Inspire
3. Land Rover has announced a three-year extension to its global partnership with Virgin Galactic, the world’s first commercial ‘spaceline’.
Virgin Galactic’s latest spaceship was unveiled today, supported by a Range Rover Astronaut Edition. Land Rover will remain an integrated part of Virgin Galactic’s day-to-day operations as the company completes test flights with ‘SpaceShipTwo’ and begins a regular commercial service.
Land Rover vehicles are part of daily life for the Virgin Galactic team, with roles which include towing the space vehicles, carrying equipment and clearing runways before take-off. They played key roles during the company’s first two spaceflights which saw Virgin Galactic become the first private company to fly humans to space on a spaceship designed for commercial service. A fleet of Land Rovers also supported Virgin Galactic’s relocation from its manufacturing and test facilities in Mojave, California, to Spaceport America in New Mexico – the world’s first purpose-built commercial spaceport.
What do you think?
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Cathie Wood's ARKX X-Factor and Virgin Galactic - A Bull CaseWhen the fundamentals no longer matter you might find the argument that neither do the technicals. While today's market-making computers can read every fundamental report and crunch previous stock performances against thousands of correlations, they are still helpless to responsibly predict when a 3rd item catalyst may come to fruition and flip the mathematically probable on their backs. I call this silent catalyst an "X-FACTOR".
X fac·tor
/ˈeksfaktər/
noun
noun: Xfactor
1.
a noteworthy special talent or quality.
"there are plenty of luxury cars around, but the S-Type has that special X factor"
2.
a variable in a given situation that could have the most significant impact on the outcome.
"the young vote may turn out to be the X factor"
In the next 3 months, Virgin Galactic has several big catalysts that should launch $SPCE back to meet previous highs:
1) Private preview of Spaceship 3 on 3/30/21 to the paid reserve via video conference (public news to follow shortly, rumors will fuel a positive stock hike). Invitations have already been sent out!
2) With the Spaceship 3 news, we hope to hear about a confirmed launch window of SS2 or SS3. There is some low-level speculation that the Spaceship 2 has been scratched due to hull integrity and no further powered flights for that ship are planned with all funding going to tests of SS3 and SS4 (SS5?). Clarification from $SPCE PR would be nice, one way or the other. Regardless, the only thing Virgin Galactic needs to do at this point is announce another official flight window, perform, and the rest will follow. NO MORE DELAYS. I've had more birthdays than successful launches in the same time frame...
3) Cathie Wood's ARKX X-Factor! - Cathie Wood is a big stock picker of Wall Street. If you don't already know who she is, a small bit of research into her ARK investment ETFs will be worth your afternoon. What you need to know NOW is that she is getting ready to release a new product: ARKX, a Space Exploration ETF, of which $SPCE will fill a significant portion of. This a BIG for the underlying price of $SPCE. Should $SPCE have another delay within the next year (which history says, yes we will), investors will look to the Wood's ARKX ETF as a secondary indicator before selling. This means that future sell-offs are less likely to happen when $SPCE is involved in the ARKX ETF where in the past, any disappointing news caused massive swings in price action.
4) The Launch - OMG - we still have a launch! After that last disappointing performance from $SPCE, we got a hint that there might be a launch in MAY. History has shown that Virgin Galactic likes to launch over the weekend and not before earnings.
5) A book. There is a book coming titled "Test Gods: Virgin Galactic and the Making of a Modern Astronaut" 5/4/21. I can't figure out if this is helpful or detrimental if it shows to confirm any negative sentiment. The release may be a sell the news event with a rebuy at any dip to the previous position.
6) Beyond that, I can only expect more launches and assuming a number of successes, a rise in prices. If you're not already in $SPCE, I might advocate $125 strike for 2022, with consideration to sell after any successful launch in 2021 to take advantage of any implied volatility spike. Rebuy.
7) I don't think we'll send non-pilots into space in 2021 (with an exception to undisclosed VIP), but if it should happen and you're deep in leaps, profit seems inevitable. Answer "will commercial flights take place in 2021" before buying a position based on a business model. Buy and sell on speculation sentiment.
My Personal sentament:
I'm very long $SPCE. I do like the underlying to be at $75 heading into 2022, but I'd buy a position that would take advantage of a $100 underlying strike in December 2021. At this point, you should go long, and you might not find a play that goes wrong. My personal play is 4/1/21 CALLS @ $30 and 2022 calls at $125 that will look to profit late summer $2021.
What's your play? let me know!
SPCE TECHNICAL ANALYSISHello guys, here's a quick analysis showing some of my beliefs about $SPCE. I´m actually very bullish about this one ever since a rehearsal was spotted out of that previous downtrend and ever since, an aligned up trend may come further. Also, correct me if I'm wrong but I found out some of its resistance levels. If this one breaks through the S1, I really believe it shall go up to S2
$ SPCE Virgin Galactic (SPCE) closed at $29.59, marking a +0.04% move from the previous day. This change lagged the S&P 500's 1.56% gain on the day. At the same time, the Dow added 1.29%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 1.14%.
THE long-term of this stock seems to be bullish as they progress into Human space trials.
target price
short term :$40
Long term :$100
Nothing to support a price over $30 this weekLargely, the market is moving money away from SPAC and SPAC stocks. No news until 3/30/21~3/31/21. Dip to $26 by EOW.
$33+ Price target for April 1 2020, and how to play itYou could argue that the cup and handle semi-formed in the early hours of Thursday, March 25 - and if so, it is time to look forward to a bright future with Virgin.
At apx 11:00 EST Thursday, March 25, the 20 SMA crossed back over the 50 SMA on the 5-minute intraday chart, giving a strong BUY signal, and the charts/markets obeyed.
How do we play this? Look to positive reactions to SS3 release, ARKX rumors, and a future May Launch.
WARNING. SPACEX may have had a failed launch the early morning of Friday March 26, and while $SPCE is NOT SPACEX, there is a magical tie between the two and price action. You may want to time your entries after the market reacts ( buy the dip if there is one). Best case, it cools off $SPCE just enough to find a nice discount.
What play I'll look to get into:
Let's play the SS3 with 1 APR 21 $30 Strike Calls, paying less than $1.25 if possible. Use the gains and let it roll into another call (TBD) for post-launch after May.
🚀Blast off VirginGalactic 300+ % to the upsideBy following the monthly support/resistance lines we get a general indication of where this stock may go in the near future, approx 2yrs. As the acceptance of commercial/tourist space travel continues to grow it gives my thought/idea a bit more confidence.
$SPCE - VIRGIN GALACTIC // LONG 3/21$SPCE is testing 0.618FIB level, 100 EMA & support trendline. Currently oversold.
Stop-loss and targets are given in the chart.
Be SafePossibly in a head and shoulders formation. If there is no move up soon, it could very well be a H&S pattern.
Perhaps the support of the neckline will hold. Pattern is not valid unless neckline is broken in a downtrend.
No recommendation. This is a tall structure so be safe.
SPCEDue to the bad news of the company we have seen a downward cycle, remember that the market sentiment indicates the Elliot cycle but the news is what we rescued from a strong fall, we have two golden areas, although we must wait for the breakdown of the shoulder head shoulder, at the moment I see it bearish.
Is this the bottom? Dear Traders,
Last time I posted on SPCE, I mentioned that the price is going through a correction following Elliot 4th wave and today we can see we have hit the bottom of wave with a strong price rejection at 38.40 near 50 MA. This could be a confirmation that we are at the bottom of the wave and should start wave 5 tomorrow but we might get even closer to 50MA before we go back up. As you may know, if we touch 35.40, then this is not an Elliot wave and this predication shall be dismissed. However, if we reverse this downward trend before hitting the redline, the 5th wave should start to form and we should see 70 around late March.
Of course, market does whatever it likes and these prediction might not mean anything but should give us a clue while we keep an eye out for SPCE price action. Also this is not a financial advice and I'm not a financial expert.
If you enjoy this analysis please give me a thumbs up and leave a comment. This will motivate me to keep going!
Thank you
AH
SPCE Zone of Buy InterestThis trendline has had a lot of touches, and I'm looking to add here for my long term hold. No stop loss, I really think space flight is going to be a bustling industry, if only to take humans to space to show them the magnificence of the earth so they choose to take better care of it.
Looking to complete the Inverse Cup and Handle formation by EOWLooking for a dip this week with JPOW's week of talks, interviews, and another week of no news from Virgin Galactic PR. If this inverse cup and handle is going to complete this week, I see it touching $26 and fast. Even with a possible slight push up from "dumb money" on Monday morning, the sooner it touches $26 this week, the sooner we have a chance for it to hit $24 and below before reacting to Spaceship 3 news next Thursday 3/31/21.
The unveiling of SS3 will not be a portfolio saver, $SPCE as a company has lots to prove. If Virgin announces an official launch window target, that should be enough to take this ticker from the ground and back toward $55 by the end of May assuming no further delays and a successful test flight.
Regardless if $SPCE hits any sub $30 number this week, all profits from any short positions should be invested into a long strategy such as Jan 21 22 $125 strike calls with profit-taking/adjustment around post-test flight 6/1/21~8/31/21, and I'll be looking for $65-75 underlying targets with consideration to hold if there is any indication of this hitting $100/share.
Buy $SPCE - NRPicks 07 Mar
Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. is an integrated aerospace company, developing human spaceflight for individuals and researchers in the United States. It also manufactures aerial and space vehicles. The company's spacecraft operations include commercial human spaceflight, commercial flight research, and space development payloads.
The company came close to losing all its 2021 profits in the last few weeks, attributed to the overall market decline and to investor Chamath Palihapitiya making official a sale of 6.2M of Virgin shares. Possible sustainable rebound in MA200
Technical:
MACD Level (12, 26) 5.76
Bounce over MA200
Price below MA50
RSI 36.02 Oversold
SPCEMID-TERM: 4hr hidden bullish divergence with a hammer off of support and 200 day MA. Also oversold on RSI. (not financial advice)
