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4TSLA trade ideas

TSLA Elliott wave Analysis 20/4/2025For me, I think that TSLA have already End the Cycle (count from the first day TSLA is IPO).As you can see there is a clear divergence at the wave 5 of the A wave,suggesting that A wave of the corrective wave should be end and ready for the huge B wave that might take a lot of time (Since it is the B wave of the massive wave 2).But there is a change that the wave A that is coming down might be the part of WXY pattern or others pattern so we have to keep an eye on.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by jirapattinn
TSLA Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-04-17TSLA Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-04-17) Below is an integrated analysis of the reports and market data: ────────────────────────────── MODEL REPORTS – KEY POINTS • Grok/xAI  – Price and moving averages on both 5‑min and daily charts are below key EMAs; RSI and MACD point to current bearish momentum.  – Notable technical support at about 239.75 with resistance above near 242.  – The options chain shows heavy put activity at the $240 strike (premium about 0.67), and max pain is at 245, although that level is less relevant for a near‐term (0DTE) trade.  – Recommendation: Trade the TSLA $240 PUT at an ask of 0.67 at the open, aiming for roughly a 100% gain and using about a 50% loss as a stop. • Gemini/Google  – Technicals on short‐term and daily timeframes are mixed: the daily chart is clearly bearish while some 5‑min indicators hint at stabilization.  – Conflicting signals (including the max pain pull toward 245 and falling VIX) result in not having a high‑conviction directional bias.  – Conclusion: “No trade” is recommended today because the conflicting indicators raise the risk of getting whipsawed. • Claude/Anthropic  – Technical analysis on both 5‑min and daily confirms a moderately bearish bias (price well below major EMAs, RSI below 50).  – However, one suggested trade was a TSLA $237.50 PUT at an extremely low premium (0.13) which seems less attractive given the preferred premium range.  – In essence, the model sees downside potential but selected a strike a bit further out from the current price. • Llama/Meta  – A moderately bearish setup is noted, with the technical picture similar to the others on very short‐term charts.  – However, the model also flags the influence of max pain at 245 and concludes that a naked call (for example, at the $240 or $242.50 strike) could profit if the upward “max pain pull” works in play.  – Ultimately, this view contrasts with the put trades favored by others. • DeepSeek  – Confirms the overall technical picture: price is below key averages, with bearish momentum evident on both 5‑min and daily charts.  – Emphasizes the high open interest on $240 puts and the near-term support at 239.75.  – Recommends buying the TSLA $240 PUT at its 0.67 ask price for this weekly (0DTE) option. ────────────────────────────── 2. AREAS OF AGREEMENT AND DISAGREEMENT Agreements:  – Most reports note that TSLA is trading in a moderately bearish state with price below the relevant moving averages and key support levels near 239.75.  – There is broad recognition that options activity is concentrated around the $240 strike—especially on the put side, where volume and open interest are very high, underscoring bearish positioning.  – Technical indicators (RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands) on short‑term and daily charts lean toward bearishness despite some very short‑term signals of stabilization. Disagreements:  – Gemini/Google sees too many conflicting signals (including the upward pull implied by max pain) and hence recommends no trade, while the majority of the other analysts view the setup as tradeable.  – Llama/Meta is open to trading a naked call (capitalizing on the max pain influence) whereas Grok/xAI, DeepSeek, and to a lesser degree Claude/Anthropic advocate for a bearish put trade instead.    ────────────────────────────── 3. CONCLUSION & TRADE RECOMMENDATION Overall Market Direction Consensus:  Most opinions point to a moderately bearish bias for TSLA on a near-term, 0DTE weekly horizon. Even though conflicting signals (like max pain toward 245 and some stabilization on very short timeframes) introduce uncertainty, the weight of the technicals and put side open interest lean toward downside pressure. Recommended Trade:  Trade a single‑leg, naked PUT (weekly option) on TSLA. Trade Parameters:  – Instrument: TSLA  – Strategy: Buy a TSLA $240 PUT  – Expiration: 2025‑04‑17 (weekly, 0DTE)  – Premium: Approximately $0.67 per contract (slightly above the preferred range, but justified by high liquidity and clear technical support)  – Entry Timing: At the open  – Profit Target: Around 100% gain from the entry premium (i.e. exit near a $1.34 premium)  – Stop‑Loss: Roughly a 50% loss at about $0.33 per contract  – Confidence Level: Approximately 65%  – Key Risks & Considerations:   • The mixed signals (especially Gemini’s caution and the max pain theory) mean price could quickly reverse if TSLA rebounds near 245.   • Very short‑term trading (0DTE) carries risks related to rapid time decay and volatility spikes.   • A failure to break important support (around 239.75) would warrant an early exit. ────────────────────────────── 4. TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format) { "instrument": "TSLA", "direction": "put", "strike": 240.0, "expiry": "2025-04-17", "confidence": 0.65, "profit_target": 1.34, "stop_loss": 0.33, "size": 1, "entry_price": 0.67, "entry_timing": "open" } Disclaimer: This newsletter is not trading or investment advice but for general informational purposes only. This newsletter represents my personal opinions based on proprietary research which I am sharing publicly as my personal blog. Futures, stocks, and options trading of any kind involves a lot of risk. No guarantee of any profit whatsoever is made. In fact, you may lose everything you have. So be very careful. I guarantee no profit whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this newsletter, its representatives, its principals, its moderators, and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CFTC, or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. By reading and using this newsletter or any of my publications, you are agreeing to these terms. Any screenshots used here are courtesy of TradingView. I am just an end user with no affiliations with them. Information and quotes shared in this blog can be 100% wrong. Markets are risky and can go to 0 at any time. Furthermore, you will not share or copy any content in this blog as it is the authors' IP. By reading this blog, you accept these terms of conditions and acknowledge I am sharing this blog as my personal trading journal, nothing more.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by quantsignals
GEX Analysis & Options “Game Plan”🔶 Short- and longer-term perspective in a high IV, negative GEX environment 🔶 KEY LEVELS & RANGES Spot: 221 Gamma Flip / Transition: around 250 (the turquoise zone on the chart) – This zone typically marks a “power shift.” If price decisively breaks above 250 and holds, market makers’ gamma positioning could flip from neutral/negative to positive. Put Support: 200 – A large negative gamma position has accumulated here, making 200 a strong support level. If it breaks, the downside may accelerate. Call Resistance: 400 – A major long-term “call wall” where a significant amount of OTM calls are concentrated. It’s more relevant to LEAPS; currently far from spot, so not a realistic short-term target. Call Resistance #2: 300 – A medium-term bullish objective, still above the 200-day MA. You’d need to be strongly bullish to aim for ~300 by May (e.g., going for a 16-delta OTM call). Short-Term / Intermediate GEX Levels: – There are gamma clusters around 220–230 and 250–260 . These areas often see higher volatility, possible bounces, or stalls (chop) due to hedging flows. 🔶 WHATEVER SCENARIO – SHORT TERM (0–30 DAYS) A) Upside Continuation / Rebound – If TSLA closes above 225–230 , the next target is 240–250 (transition / gamma flip). – If it breaks above 250 and holds (e.g., successful retest), market makers may shift to “long gamma,” fueling a quicker move to 260–270 . – Resistance: 250, 300, with an extreme LEAPS-level at 400. B) Downside Move / Bearish Break – If price dips below ~220 and sustains, the next targets are 210–200 (major put wall / negative gamma). – If 200 fails, negative gamma may magnify the sell-off. It’s an extreme scenario but still on the table given high IV and macro/geopolitical risks. – Support: 210, 200 — likely stronger buying interest near 200, possibly a short-term bounce. – The options chain suggests near-term hedging via puts for this scenario. C) Chop / Sideways – If TSLA stays in 210–230 , market makers (short options) might benefit from high IV/time decay. – Negative GEX, however, can trigger sudden moves in either direction; caution is advised. 🔶 LONGER-TERM FOCUS (6–12 MONTHS, LEAPS) NET GEX = -61.97M (negative territory) suggests longer-dated positioning is also put-heavy or carries notable negative gamma. HVL / pTrans = 250 is a key pivot; cTrans+ = 400 is distant call resistance. Between these levels, there’s a mix of put/call dominance. If Tesla undergoes a fresh growth phase (AI, robotaxi, energy storage, etc.) and clears 250/300 , 400 could become the next significant call wall — but that’s more of a multi-month horizon. 🔶 STRATEGY IDEAS (High IV Environment) 1. Short-Term Bearish – If you’re bearish and expecting TSLA to test 220–210, consider a bear put spread or net credit put butterfly (lower debit) to leverage high IV. – Targeting 200, but keep in mind negative gamma may accelerate downside movement. 2. Medium-Term “Contra” Bullish (bounce to 250) – If GEX suggests a bounce off 210–220, consider a bull call spread (e.g., 220/240) or a net debit call butterfly (220/240/250). – Be mindful of sudden swings, as we remain in negative gamma territory. 3. Longer-Term Bullish (>3–6 months) – A call butterfly with upper strikes around 300–350 offers capped debit and higher potential payoff if a bigger rally materializes. – A diagonal spread (selling nearer-dated calls, buying further-out calls) exploits elevated front-end IV. 4. Neutral / Range-Bound – If TSLA stays in 200–250 , you could use Iron Condors (e.g., 200/260) to benefit from time decay and any IV collapse. – Exercise caution: negative gamma can generate abrupt, directional moves, making a neutral stance riskier than usual. 🔶 ADDITIONAL NOTES & “BIG PICTURE” High IV & Negative GEX: TSLA has a track record of large swings. Negative GEX can intensify sell-offs, while forced hedging might trigger rapid rebounds. Preferred Structures: With expensive premiums, spreads (vertical, diagonal) and butterfly configurations generally fare better than plain long options (less vulnerable to time decay). Potential Catalysts: AI announcements, Autopilot breakthroughs, new product lines, and macro changes can swiftly alter market dynamics. Keep tracking GEX updates and news flow; TSLA tends to respond dramatically to fresh developments. 🔶 Bottom line: From 221 spot, watch 210–200 on the downside and 240–250 on the upside short term. Medium-term bullish target = 300 , while 400 remains a far LEAPS scenario. High IV + negative gamma = fast, potentially volatile moves — so risk management and spread-based approaches are crucial.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by TanukiTrade
1
Tesla Shares Tumble 7%+ Following Cybertruck Quality ComplaintsTesla Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:TSLA ) faced another sharp sell-off on Thursday 10th. The stock dropped 7.27% to close at $252.40, down $19.80 for the day. However, volume was high, reaching 399.04 million shares. The fall followed reports of build quality issues in Tesla’s Cybertruck. Owners posted complaints on the Cybertruck Owners Club forum. Several noted that the vehicle’s metal panels had detached. Additionally, videos showing Cybertruck damage in cold weather gained attention on social media site X. These reports raised concerns over production quality. Tesla had been recovering before the recent plunge. However, concerns about product reliability appear to have paused the rebound. Technical Analysis The 3-day chart shows Tesla in a strong downtrend. The stock broke below $290, triggering a drop to around $220 before bouncing back to $252. Price recently respected a key support near $190m, which may act as a floor for future declines. High volume near support signals buyer interest. If Tesla breaks above $290, it could retest $300. That zone acts as resistance and aligns with the 50- and 100-day moving averages at $252 and $232, respectively. The longer-term target is near $488, but the price must clear $290 first. A failure to hold support near $220 could send the stock back toward $180. The RSI is at 42.77, slightly above oversold. Momentum is weak but may shift if price builds support above $250. Tesla’s next move depends on how it manages both technical resistance and consumer concerns.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by DEXWireNews
Tesla (TSLA) Shares Jump Approximately 22% in a Single DayTesla (TSLA) Shares Jump Approximately 22% in a Single Day Tesla was among the standout performers in the stock market rally that followed President Trump’s decision to delay, by 90 days, the implementation of new international trade tariffs — with the notable exception of China. According to the charts, Tesla (TSLA) shares surged by approximately 22%. Why Did TSLA Shares Soar? Some insight comes from Cathie Wood, CEO of asset management firm ARK Invest. In an interview with Barron’s on Wednesday, she noted the following: → Tesla plans to launch a new, more affordable vehicle this quarter, likely priced at around $30,000 — roughly half the cost of the base Model Y. → The upcoming release of Tesla’s robotaxi service could also lower the need for large upfront vehicle purchases, offering consumers a more economical alternative. → Tesla sources more components from North America than most other US carmakers, meaning it is less exposed to tariff-related costs. And there’s another reason TSLA may have jumped — one that can be found in the chart. Technical Analysis of TSLA Take note: the March and April lows (marked with arrows) are both around the $220 level. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) posted a significantly lower low in April compared to March. This suggests that, in early April, TSLA was outperforming the broader market. Why? One possible explanation is that there has been — and perhaps still is — a strong accumulation interest in TSLA. Buyers may have been quietly scooping up available shares amid recession fears. When yesterday’s news suddenly shifted market sentiment, the “spring” uncoiled, catapulting TSLA’s share price upward. However, the overall downtrend remains intact. If bullish momentum continues, the price may encounter resistance around the psychologically significant $300 level — which coincides with the upper boundary of the downward channel. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by FXOpen
1
TSLA 45M chart - BULL flag Coiling for Breakout!www.tradingview.com 🚀 TSLA 45m – Bull Flag Coiling for Breakout NASDAQ:TSLA TSLA ripped from $214 → $276 📈 and is now forming a bull flag just under resistance at $276.87. 🔹 Strong volume on the pole, cooling off during flag 🧊 🔹 RSI ~74 — strong, but not overheated 💪 🔹 MACD crossover 🔄 + momentum building 📊 🔹 Above all key EMAs (20/50/100/200) 🟢 🔹 OBV trending up — smart money is loading 💼📦 ⚠️ Breakout above $277 = launch toward $293–$300, with extended target of $310–$330 if trend continues. ❌ Invalidation below $263. 📌 Watching for a breakout + retest entry 🔁 Let it cook. 🔥
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by Scared_MNY_Dnt_Make_NO_MNY
1
Tesla Taps the Golden Zone – Is the Launch Sequence Engaged?Tesla (TSLA) has shown textbook precision by respecting the golden zone after a significant sweep of previous highs. Rather than violating the last HTF low—which would’ve hinted at deeper downside—price instead retraced cleanly into the OTE (Optimal Trade Entry) range and reacted with strong bullish intent. This move indicates a healthy retracement rather than weakness, suggesting a continuation to the upside. Confirmation of this potential bullish leg would be a sustained close above the 272–300 level, which aligns with previous buyside liquidity zones and Fibonacci confluence. Key Observations: - Golden Zone respected: Price bounced cleanly between the 62–79% fib levels. - HTF low protected: No violation of higher timeframe bullish structure. - Volume spike supports the reversal move. Targets: - Short-term: 300.61 - Mid-term: 416.67 - Long-term swing: 861.17 (over 255% potential gain) Conclusion: Tesla looks set for lift-off 🚀. The reaction at the golden zone and the preservation of structure give high confluence for a potential explosive move higher. Wait for confirmation via price continuation and structure integrity. As always — DYOR (Do Your Own Research).
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by INSIDER_INTEL
TSLA | Long | Technical Buy Zone + Volume Spike | (April 9, 2025 1️⃣ Insight Summary: Tesla is pulling back into a strong demand zone with rising volume, signaling potential accumulation. While fundamentally overvalued, the technicals show this could be a high reward-risk trade if price retests lower levels. 2️⃣ Trade Parameters: Bias: Long (if retest happens) Entry Zone: $220 – $223 (ideal buy zone on a potential pullback) Stop Loss: Below $206 (breakdown from structure and invalidation of support) TP: $440.36 (2x reward-to-risk potential) Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:15 (based on current setup) Status: Not yet in position — watching for a retest into support zone 3️⃣ Key Notes: ✅ Significant buy-side volume showing up around current levels ✅ Buy signals and price action bouncing from higher-timeframe demand ✅ Although TSLA is widely viewed as fundamentally overvalued, technical setups like this can still offer solid short- to mid-term returns ❌ Invalidation is clearly below $206 — that breaks the thesis and the base 📉 Waiting for confirmation of a pullback and bounce before entering; chasing here isn't ideal for the reward-risk profile 4️⃣ Follow-up Note: Watching price closely for a potential re-entry toward $220. Will update this trade idea if we get a clean test or breakout. Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by Risk_Adj_Return
TSLA Best Level to BUY/HOLD 100% bounce🔸Hello traders, today let's review daily chart for TSLA. we are looking at a 67% correction, almost complete now, another 67% recent correction presented on the right. 🔸Most of the bad news already price in and we are getting oversold, expecting a bottom in weeks now not months. 🔸Recommended strategy bulls: BUY/HOLD once 67% correction completes at/near strong horizontal S/R 140/150 USD, TP bulls is 280/300 USD, which is 100% unleveraged gain. **Tesla (TSLA) Market Update – April 9, 2025** 📉 **Stock Decline:** TSLA closed at $221.86, down 4.9%, amid new tariffs and CEO Elon Musk's political involvement **Analyst Downgrades:* Wedbush's Dan Ives cut the price target by 43% to $315, citing a "brand crisis" Wells Fargo's Colin Langan set a target at $130, anticipating a potential 50% drop 📊 **Delivery Shortfall:** Q1 deliveries fell 13% year-over-year to 336,000 vehicles, missing expectations by about 40,000 unis. 🌍 **Tariff Impact:** President Trump's new tariffs are expected to increase costs and disrupt Tesla's supply chain, especially concerning Chinese operatins. 💡 **Investor Sentiment:** Analysts express concern over Musk's political ties affecting Tesla's brand and sales, particularly in China.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by ProjectSyndicate
27
Why Support and Resistance are Made to Be Broken ?Hello fellow traders! Hope you're navigating the markets smoothly. As we go through the daily dance of price action, one thing becomes clear support and resistance are just moments, not walls. They're temporary. Momentum and trend strength? Now that’s where the real story lies. This publication dives into how these so-called key levels break and more importantly, how to position yourself smartly when they do. Stay flexible, trade with confidence, and let the market lead. Let’s get into it. Why Support and Resistance Levels Break Support and resistance are some of the most talked-about tools in technical analysis. But here's the truth they’re not meant to last forever. No matter how strong a level may appear on your chart, it eventually gets tested, challenged, and often broken. Why? Because the market is dynamic. The real edge for a trader lies not in hoping a level holds, but in reading when it’s about to fail and being ready for it. No Resistance in a Bull, No Support in a Bear Ever seen a strong bull market pause just because of a resistance line? It doesn’t. Price keeps pushing higher as buyers keep stepping in. Same goes for a strong bear market support levels collapse as fear takes over and selling snowballs. Instead of clinging to lines on a chart, think bigger: Where is the momentum? What’s the trend saying? That’s where your trading decisions should come from. Support and Resistance: Not Fixed, Always Shifting Yes, these levels matter but only as zones, not exact prices. They’re areas where price has reacted in the past, where traders might expect something to happen again. But they’re not magic numbers. When traders treat these levels as absolute, they fall into traps false confidence, poor entries, tighter than-needed stop losses. Always remember: market sentiment, liquidity, and institutional activity are constantly changing. So should your interpretation of the chart. The Temporary Nature of These Levels Markets move on supply and demand. A level that acted as resistance last week could easily become support next week. Or break completely. Take the classic example support turning into resistance. When support breaks, former buyers might now be sellers, trying to get out on a bounce. That flip happens because behavior and sentiment have shifted. And as traders, that’s the real pattern we need to track not just price levels, but the psychology behind them. “Strong” Support? It’s Mostly an Illusion We all love the idea of a strong level something we can lean on. But large players? They don’t think like that. Institutions don’t place massive orders at a single price point. They spread across a zone building positions slowly without moving the market too much. What looks like a strong level to us might just be an accumulation or distribution range for them. Always think beyond what’s visible on the surface. How to Spot Breakouts Before They Hit Here’s what separates seasoned traders from the rest the ability to spot potential breakouts before they explode. 🔹 Volume Confirmation: If a resistance level is tested repeatedly on rising volume, that’s a big clue buyers are serious. 🔹 Structure Shifts: Higher highs in an uptrend or lower lows in a downtrend signal that the old levels are being challenged. 🔹 Liquidity Traps: Watch out for fakeouts. These are designed to trap impatient traders just before the real move. 🔹 News & Events: Never ignore macro triggers. Earnings, economic data, or geopolitical surprises can fuel breakouts that crush technical levels. 🔹 Break & Retest: A solid strategy — wait for the level to break, then get in on the retest. 🔹 Momentum Tools: Indicators like RSI, MACD, or even EMAs can offer extra confidence that a move has legs. 3 Practical Trading Setups 1. Breakout Trading Mark key levels on daily or weekly charts. Watch for volume and momentum confirmation. Enter after a clear breakout or retest. Stop-loss: Just below resistance (for longs) or above support (for shorts). 2. Range Trading If price is stuck between support and resistance, trade the range. Look for price rejection (wicks, pin bars, etc.). Use RSI or Stochastics to time entries. 3. Trend Following Identify the dominant trend using moving averages or price structure. Avoid going against the trend unless reversal signs are very clear. Let profits run use trailing stops instead of fixed targets. Mind Over Market: Psychology of S&R One of the biggest traps in trading? Overtrusting support and resistance. We get emotionally attached. We want the support to hold or the resistance to reject. And that bias clouds our judgment. How many times have you seen price break a level — and you freeze because it “wasn’t supposed to”? To break free of that: ✅ Trade with a plan. ✅ Set your risk before the trade, not after. ✅ Don’t treat any level as sacred. ✅ Stay open to what the market is telling you not what you want it to say. Final Thoughts Support and resistance are great tools but they’re just one part of the puzzle. The real power lies in reading price action, watching volume, and understanding market sentiment. Don’t ask, “Will this level hold?” Ask instead, “What happens if it breaks?” That shift in thinking? It can make all the difference. Stay sharp, stay adaptive, and keep evolving with the market. Wishing you green trades and growing accounts! Best Regards- Amit Rajan.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by AMIT-RAJAN
1