4UAL trade ideas
SKYT Potential Reversal Coming to the Upside Good morning everyone,
Looking at SKYT earnings report, results look worse than what they actually are. If you have not listened to their conference call I highly suggest you do so and educate yourself. Overall, I think this is a company that will do very well in the near future especially when you see a company like them being backed by the Department of Defense.
We currently have a small breakout to the downside on the weekly timeframe, meaning another small move down could be incoming and pivot shortly after. I'm predicting a reversal very soon and could potentially be the last time you see SKYT at these low levels.
Well that's it for SKYT, don't forget to like and follow! If you would a specific company for me to analyze don't forget to leave the ticker on the comments below.
Be Blessed and Happy Trading!
CHART 2 of 5: United Airlines on a bullish flag patternUAL probably will continue its bull run with this Bullish Flag continuation pattern formation.
UAL United Airlines Holdings Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought UAL before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of UAL United Airlines Holdings prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 43usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-4-19,
for a premium of approximately $1.36.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
United Airlines Soars 14.63% Above Boeing TurbulenceIn the face of Boeing's safety crisis and production woes, United Airlines (NYSE: NASDAQ:UAL ) has defied expectations with a stellar first-quarter performance, propelling its shares skyward. Despite absorbing a significant blow from the grounding of Boeing's 737 MAX-9 aircraft, United's robust earnings and bullish outlook for the second quarter signal resilience and a promising trajectory. Let's delve into the factors driving United's ascent and its implications for investors and the aviation industry at large.
1. Earnings Triumph Over Boeing's Impact: United Airlines' first-quarter results have surpassed expectations, showcasing the company's ability to navigate challenges posed by Boeing's ongoing safety crisis. Despite absorbing a $200 million hit from the Boeing grounding, United's strong financial performance underscores effective management and strategic resilience in turbulent times.
2. Optimistic Profit Forecast: United's upbeat profit forecast for the second quarter reflects a bullish outlook on travel demand, fueled by improving corporate spending. The airline's optimistic projection signals confidence in the recovery of the aviation sector and positions United as a frontrunner in capitalizing on renewed travel momentum.
3. Capacity Constraints and Boeing Fallout: Boeing's production and certification delays have created aircraft shortages, constraining capacity for major airlines like United. While grappling with reduced delivery estimates and operational challenges, United ( NASDAQ:UAL ) remains steadfast in its commitment to maintaining service quality and meeting passenger demand amid industry headwinds.
4. CEO Assurance Amid Safety Concerns: United's CEO, Scott Kirby, has expressed confidence in the safety of Boeing's 787 Dreamliner amidst ongoing investigations into the planemaker's manufacturing practices. Kirby's reassurance underscores United's commitment to passenger safety and transparency, mitigating concerns raised by recent whistleblower allegations.
Technical Outlook
United Airlines ( NASDAQ:UAL ) stock is on a bullish trend with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 62 indicating strong buying momentum from the bulls. A strong Bullish Harami candle stick pattern indicated on the 4-month price chart further accentuates the bullish thesis of the stock
Conclusion:
United Airlines' impressive first-quarter results and optimistic outlook amid Boeing's challenges demonstrate the company's resilience in navigating turbulent skies. As the aviation industry gradually rebounds from the impact of the pandemic and Boeing's crisis, United ( NASDAQ:UAL ) stands out as a beacon of stability and growth potential.
Rising Airlines UAL LONG - Dec 23 (🐲🏔️JDSMF)After a few months taking a step back, exploring, reading and losing. This is the first trade in my new fund 🐲🏔️JDSMF. We are now looking at swing trades based on opportunities derived from exploiting the gap between the market's expectation for how things will turn out (current price) and our own belief of how things will turn out. Good luck to me!
The Hypothesis
The worst is over for the airline sector since it’s constant free fall since 24 Jul 2023 - Late Oct. After 4 months of dropping -42%.
- I believe that all the key issues have been priced into the stock.
Labour
Oil
Ticket discounts
- Consumer Demand
No airline has shown slowing demand. In fact everyone of them has reported growing demand in both domestic and international.
All have reported revenue increases
- Oil has also seen a drop in prices since 2 Oct 2023
The Fair Price
- Generally
For all airlines current price low is 40-60% away from COVID low, COVID low was a fear reaction
But if we plot current price to price stabilisation after the COVID fear reaction, we were at parity 4-6 weeks ago
UAL
UAL has strong business plan and fundamentals
COVID low is 56% away - I will put my initial risk at 56%
Base Price
- As a base I used the low of the range that happened after the COVID dip in 22 Jun 2020. This was where price stabilised from the fear and then slowly moved higher.
- 7 Dec - Price is 21% from COVID stabilisation
JETS
JETS is a safer bet on the overall airline industry
I contemplated JETS, but JETS had a bad Risk & Reward just based off COVID Stabilisation and July’s price before the dip 24%: 16.39%.
What Factors Would Break This Hypothesis
Oil prices, suddenly shoots up
Customer travel demand drops due to recessions of tightening
Labour prices shoot up cutting into margins
UAL, 1/25-2/26, 9.5% profitOn 1/22/2024, United Airlines (UAL) reported earnings of $2.00 per share on revenue of $13.63 billion for the fourth quarter ended December 2023. The consensus earnings estimate was $1.61 per share on revenue of $13.55 billion.
Technical Analysis of United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) on NAMoving Average: There's a moving average line that indicates the trend. It seems to be a simple moving average because it smooths out price data by creating a constantly updated average price.
Price Action: The chart exhibits a somewhat volatile price movement with periods of uptrends and downtrends. The latest candles suggest a consolidation phase after a downtrend.
Trading Signals: There are "Sell" signals indicated by red arrows pointing downwards, and a "Buy" signal indicated by a blue arrow pointing upwards, possibly generated by a trading strategy or indicator used on the platform.
Volume Indicator: At the bottom, there's a volume indicator showing trading activity. A large spike in volume can be observed at one point, coinciding with a large price movement.
Take Profit Levels: Two horizontal lines marked as 'Take Profit 1' and 'Take Profit 2' suggest levels where the trader may consider closing a position to realize gains.
Trigger Point: There's a yellow line with an icon labeled 'Trigger,' which could be the point at which the current trading strategy suggests entering a position.
Sold Iron Condor on United Airlines: LAST MINUTE STRATEGYThe iron condor is a strategy that can be used to profit from a relatively range in the price of an underlying asset. In this blog post, we will discuss a sold iron condor on United Airlines (UAL) with an options expiration of January 26, 2024.
What is an Iron Condor?
An iron condor is a four-leg options strategy that consists of a short put, a long put, a short call, and a long call. The short put and short call are placed at a lower strike price, while the long put and long call are placed at a higher strike price. The goal of the iron condor is to profit from a relatively narrow range in the price of the underlying asset.
Why Sell an Iron Condor on United Airlines?
United Airlines is a large, stable company with a relatively predictable stock price. This makes it a good candidate for an iron condor strategy. Additionally, the options on United Airlines are relatively liquid, which means that they are easy to trade.
What are the Risks of an Iron Condor?
The main risk of an iron condor is that the price of the underlying asset will move outside of the range that you have defined. In this case, you will lose money on both the short and long legs of your options.
How to Place a Sold Iron Condor on United Airlines
To place a sold iron condor on United Airlines, you will need to buy a put option with a strike price of $31, sell a put option with a strike price of $33, sell a call option with a strike price of $44, and buy a call option with a strike price of $46. The expiration date for your options should be January 26, 2024.
STOPLOSS 3 TIMES THE PREMIUM
Disclaimer
Please note that this blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Options trading is a risky investment, and you could lose money. Before placing any trades, please do your own research and consult with a financial advisor.
United Airlines $UAL Trade IdeaYesterday I took the trade on NASDAQ:UAL as the price pulled back to key support after we broke the 50MA.
The price is doing great today, my short target is around the $43 level but we have much more possibility for upside in the medium term.
The MA's are sloping up indicating a bullish momentum in the short term.
Oscillators are showing overbought in the short term, hence my comment on the $43 level, but the MACD is suggestion the bullish move just began.
If this was helpful for the readers, follow me for more trade ideas.
Thank you,
BK
UAL - DECLINE SCENARIOUnited Airlines Holdings posted Q3 earnings that surpassed expectations, yet it anticipates a decline in profit for the current quarter due to increased costs.
The Chicago-based airline foresees an adjusted profit ranging from $1.50 to $1.80 per share for the period ending in December. This forecast is lower than the $2.46 per share reported in the same period the previous year.
For the third quarter, the company reported an adjusted profit of $3.65 per share, surpassing the $3.35 estimate from Wall Street analysts.
The softening demand for domestic travel has raised concerns about whether consumers are curtailing their travel expenditures, as household savings dwindle and interest rates remain high.
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UAL United Airlines Holdings Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought UAL calls before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of UAL United Airlines Holdings prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 42usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-10-20,
for a premium of approximately $0.35.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
UAL Taking a Flight DownWeekly Chart of UAL
UAL is currently in B Wave formation. It's a triangle of which three waves have completed and the fourth is in progress. The fourth wave may go a little lower, maybe upto 37 (There is support at this level. Also observe the white trendline) before starting the fifth wave of the triangle to complete the triangle. The fifth wave may go up to 50.
After completion of all five waves of the triangle, the C Wave will begin, taking UAL to its lowest low.
Potential for a bounceIts sitting right on weekly support line. It could bounce here for a month or two. I would be it will retest low 30s.
United Airlines to stop in the selloff?United Airlines Holdings - 30d expiry - We look to Buy at 41.05 (stop at 38.25)
We are trading at oversold extremes.
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
40.43 has been pivotal.
Setbacks should be limited to yesterday's low.
This stock has seen good sales growth.
We look to buy dips.
Our profit targets will be 48.05 and 49.55
Resistance: 42.48 / 43.50 / 45.00
Support: 41.30 / 40.35 / 38.50
Please be advised that the in formation presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group
UAL: Long Trade, International Travel GrowthAug Hypothesis: International Travel Growth (Specific to Airlines)
Entered Ride trade UAL AT 53.97, risk 5.43% and TP 7.43%. I entered it after the confirmation with a bullish candle after two higher high retests and the clearing of the EMA lines in the hourly chart.
I with at 5.43% risk I wanted to enter a larger position but I held back because I'm sure I can add on as the trade continues. What was interesting about this trade is that the broad market was mostly red
UAL : Expecting a minimum of 30% moveTechnical Analysis
The price has touched the lower trendline of the internal structure, and there is a high probability for a move of about 30% to the nearest target levels. Moreover, if the outer structure creates a larger channel, then, to the upper trendline of the channel, there is a move of about 60%. So, all in all, the risk is worth the reward.
Only 1.25% of the capital is involved at the current levels, and I will consider adding to the position if the price crashes further to the lower trendline of the HTF structure. If that happens, then I'll look more into the fundamentals of the stock, as well as the macro and microeconomics at that time, before acting on any further.
Fundamental Analysis
The airline industry is a key requirement for the growth of any economy. So, the government will also aid this sector if it is in trouble, and we have seen that happening many times before, even during the recent pandemic. Since the pandemic is over, I don't think there are any more hurdles left for the sector going forward, other than recession worries. But from the recent CPI and NFP data, we can expect that the recession is under the Fed's control for the moment.
There are some issues going on with the pilots' association, and even if that escalates, I don't think it is going to affect the long-term growth of the company. Maybe it will provide an opportunity to accumulate more of the stock at a cheap valuation.
Among airline stocks, only 4 stocks are of interest to me as of now, and UAL tops the list. Then comes LUV, DAL, and AAL.
The management is very confident about the business, and also, summer is a pretty good time for the airline business. So, the results of this quarter are going to be pretty good, and by the time they get announced, it will be priced into the share price, and the move would have started. So, I want to be involved in that move early on.
Conclusion
So, all in all, I do believe that the risk is worth the reward. I will assess more about the sector and the stock if any further deep crash happens and will update underneath if I take any further action based on it.
At the moment, 1.25% of capital is involved at the current levels as mentioned in the chart.
United Airlines in a bear flag.United Airlines Holdings - 30d expiry - We look to Sell a break of 48.38 (stop at 50.38)
Prices have reacted from 58.23.
Short term bias has turned negative.
Price action is forming a bearish flag which has a bias to break to the downside.
There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end.
The trend of higher intraday lows has also been broken.
Our profit targets will be 43.38 and 41.38
Resistance: 50.66 / 52.00 / 54.90
Support: 48.55 / 47.00 / 46.00
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group
EMAs Crossover : 21 Vs. 50UAL.
On the daily chart there is a new test of our EMA. The test should come together with the test of the price to the long term trendline (green on the chart) which will give a double support to the price.
Bearish Alert : UALNew bearish alert on the daily chart. The crossover should come on the next days.
There is a good level at $48 which may hold the price.
RSI DIVERSIONSmall megaphone appears to be forming.
Megaphone pattern is a pattern that consists of minimum of higher highs and two lower lows.
The pattern is generally formed when the market is highly volatile in nature and traders are not confident about the market direction.
Megaphone pattern is known to give multiple trading opportunities to the trader.
This pattern also can be traded when it fails but is necessary to identify the failure perfectly.
Sometimes only pattern is not enough to take best trading decisions you may need multiple indicators to identify better entry and exit points.
There is also a mismatch between price and RSI. This divergence may have already corrected.
To me megaphones are a difficult pattern to trade.
No recommendation
