EURPLX trade ideas
TIME FOR RETRACEMENTBearish butterfly has been completed on daily time frame
We have a sharp post election moves with current signs of exhaustion on lower time frames and therefore I expect a retracement to about 0.5 fib. level.
EUR/PLN technicals and trade setupEUR/PLN intermediate bearish trend takes support at 20-EMA, rallies seem momentary as bulls struggle to clear major resistances:
The pair after testing supports at 4.2625 levels, bull swing has been dragging from last 3-4 consecutive days but the prevailing upswings could be dragged but capped at resistances of 4.3124 & 4.3185, failure swings may bring in bearish momentum.
RSI indicates the strength is favored by interim bull swings.
Daily stochastic signals the momentum in bullish sentiments. Whereas these signals are not substantiated by lagging indicators, MACD has remained well below zero levels and there is no bullish crossover yet.
On a broader perspective, back to back shooting stars evidence dips, slide below 20EMA to bring in more slumps (see monthly chart).
Intermediate trend takes support at 20 & 21EMAs.
RSI evidences consistent lower lows, converges to the price declines.
The %D crossover on slow stochastic curves on monthly terms implies that the selling momentum is intensified.
Trade Tips:
One can use current rallies to deploy fresh shorts in this pair by shorting 2D 0.5% ITM puts, while simultaneously adding longs in 1w ATM puts, the position resembles like credit put spread but the strategy would probably be entered at net debit as we chosen very narrowed expiries on shorts side as the bearish sentiments are comparatively more amid current rallies, but we don’t want to miss out the upswings that could effectively reduce the cost of the option trade.
#EURPLN - the second time we bounced supportThe second time we bounced support... time to swing. We can set long position with small S/L below ~4.25740.. and T/P around resistance ~4.3667.
Move idea on EURPLNwe will see if the analysis is correct on this pair to enter short after lower trendline break.
Short EUR/PLN close below 20-DMAPolish Monetary Policy Council left interest rate unchanged at 1.5 percent Wednesday largely in line with expectations.
The ECB earlier today maintained status-quo and left its main refinancing rate, deposit rate and marginal lending rates at 0.0%, -0.40% and 0.25% respectively.
The euro edged slightly higher after ECB decision. Focus now on ECB President Mario Draghi's presser to determine the next leg of move for the shared currency.
The pair broke below 20-DMA support at 4.3183, scope for test of 78.6% Fib at 4.2855.
Momentum studies are bearish, RSI is below the 50 mark, Stochs are biased south and MACD line is on the verge of a bearish crossover on signal line.
Major support levels - 4.3085 (61.8% Fib), 4.2959 (Aug 23 low), 4.2855 (78.6% Fib)
Major resistance levels - 4.3182 (20-DMA), 4.3246 (50% Fib), 4.3337 (5-DMA)
Good to go short on a close below 20-DMA, SL: 4.3250, TP: 4.2959/ 4.2855/ 1.2730
After EBC decision, and before Modys ratingAfter EBC decision, and before Modys rating I expect That EURPLN go to 4,444
EURPLN Close long start shorts!Traders,
get ready to short!
Seeing clear weakness at the resistance and fibonnaci levels.
First target is at the long term support line. 2nd goes for an AB=CD.
If you arent already on short, wait for a intraday retracement is preferred.
Best of luck!
EURPLN LongEURPLN appears to be headed up. The recent down-trend seems to have ended with a doji, followed by an up-week that had high volume and a stochastic buy signal.
Eurpln Long On Bank HolidayI know I know it is bank holiday but what to do it is only looking bullish right now on h4 and i cannot miss this long here
not that much fast move expecting from this but looking like it will continue to the top
Showing signs of reversal here let us see
Trade Safe
Short EURPLNA potential short in EURPLN, after not negative outlook from the rating agency, published on last Friday,
EURPLN - Short it now !EURPLN is in a total overbought condition, RSI rocketing to the sky. Price also reached its top with a candle and its long wick. Price should now be attracted by the Tenkan.
Bearish? It was...until now. Price hits strong resistance.First of all I don't really understand what makes PLN so attractive, as politics is shame sht there as few months ago. Macro has not changed either.
Weekly:
- Ichimoku back to neutral, thick Kumo shades price candles ahead.
- Heikin-Ashi has been consecutive bearish for the last 6 weeks, with strong momentum, candles had no upper wicks, candle bodies were long. First warning last week end: haDelta hit a relative low with price reaching a strong supp/res level at 100WMA and horizonttal line: 4,23-4,24
The Heikin-Ashi pattern is changing this week! Candle already has an upper wick too, and may print an inside body by friday close! + haDelta/SMA3 ticking up.
This suggests the bearish move is out of steam, and price can start to move up again towards 4,35.
- EWO is neutral
Daily:
- Ichimoku setup is still bearish
- Heikin-Ashi signal however suggests consolidation or reversal may take place above 4,23-4,24 key resistance.
haDelta/SMA3 has been nuilding a positive divergence, and today the indicator moved above zero line. HA Oscillator swicthed to bullish.
- EWO is bearish, but bars ticking higher.
Market as I hear is pretty much long PLN (short EURPLN), so in case some unwinds, price can quickly retest to 4,30-4,35 zone.
Strategy: close all shorts / open 0,5 unit CT long!
Support zone pullback Massive Support Levels 4.24 , 4.20, 4.15, 4.10 . waiting for a reversal pattern to contniue long entry . RSI ~30
EURPLN - Falling wedge, watch out for a breakout on long sideEURPLN had been rising since April 2015 in a channel from which it escaped in January before consolidating a bit. Price is now oscillating in a falling wedge and is being compressed, it found some support at 4.35 and is testing the upper trend. The volume is slightly decreasing which is a scenario often seen in wedges.
According to Bulkowski, the probability of an upward breakout in such pattern is 68%.
Read of the day: thepatternsite.com
Good risk/reward buy levelWeekly:
- Ichimoku setup is bullish, trend is bullish. Kijun Sen should act as good support at 4,3470
- Heikin-Ashi is counter bearish as mkt is in pull back phase after blow up, but haDelta did not make a lower low and seems to be bottoming out.
- EWO is bullish
Daily:
- Ichimoku setup is neutral due to sharp pull back to Kumo.
- Price retested Kumo and 100WMA. 4,36 was the previous breakout level.
- Heikin-Ashi may give a buy signal at support. haDelta has built positive divergence and is trying to spike above zero!
4,37+ is a good risk/reward entry level to re-buy this cross. Buying could accelerate above 4,40.
Set initial stop ard 4,3360.
Trade size 0,5 unit.
EURPLN - H4 - long trade proposalEURPLN is in a bullish move on the Ichimoku H4 chart. However it just broke the Kijun by initiating a "Draghi" pullback that failed to go deeper than the lower side of a parallel channel where the price is evolving. The flat Kijun at 4.41 offers a good support as well as the current cloud with a SSB at 4.42.
As soon as the trend reverses and the Kijun is broken again, a long entry can be foreseen. Waiting for it is necessary as EUR is a bit of a minefield these days after Draghi speech. SL set at lower side of cloud. TP placed at level 1 of Fibo retracement.
EURPLN next sell-off coming - S&P cuts rating on Poland'sEURPLN next sell-off coming - S&P cuts rating on Poland's
EURPLN - PA heading towards level 4.37. Ichimoku and RenkoThe pair is currently bullish and will soon reach a level that it tested back in the mid of December. If it breaks this level, it may head towards the next Fib level (4.438). Note that the cloud is steeper in this new attempt and the PA may have enough force to break through. In this case, a long entry could be foreseen.
EURPLN - Trend analysis using RenkoRenko is fine to check support and trend as it removes time from an already too complex equation. For the EURPLN pair, we clearly see the supporting diagonal for the last 8 months. We also observe that the bounce of this summer is repeating right now with a similar intensity. By copying the pattern of this summer, we may expect a small correction towards the (C) point and then waves heading towards the high of end 2014 (which was subject to a testing attempt in december). This opens opportunities for a long trade as soon as the correction is over.
