EURUSD - Bears Preparing a Bearish Shift in StructureEURUSD has been pushing higher over the past few sessions, reaching into a key liquidity zone. On the 4H chart, we’ve now seen a very clean sweep of previous swing highs, which completes the first step needed for a potential reversal. This sweep acted as a buy-side liquidity run, taking out resting orders before showing early signs of exhaustion.
Liquidity Sweep and Structural Confirmation
The sweep of the highs marked a potential turning point, but for this setup to gain validity, we need to see confirmation through structure. That confirmation would come from a decisive 4H close below the red mitigation zone. This area aligns with a small demand that previously pushed price up, so a close below would mark a clean break in bullish order flow and confirm a bearish structure shift.
Downside Expectations and Key Levels
If the structure shift is confirmed, I expect EURUSD to move lower toward the fair value gap around 1.14600 to 1.14400. This FVG could provide temporary support, and we may see some reaction there. However, due to the size of the imbalance and the overall context, price has the potential to continue lower through that level.
Interim Reactions and Minor Scenarios
There is a chance price reacts to the FVG and pulls back before continuing lower. Any bounce from this zone would likely be short-term unless it leads to a clear market structure shift back to the upside. If price fails to hold above the FVG, the deeper support zone below near 1.13800 would become the next logical target.
Trigger Point for Bearish Bias
The most important trigger for this trade is a 4H close below the red box. Without that, the bullish structure technically remains intact. Once that level is broken, I will consider the sweep and break combination a completed reversal signal, targeting the FVG and beyond.
Conclusion
This setup follows a textbook liquidity grab followed by a potential structure break. Patience is key here, as I’m waiting for confirmation before taking action. If price closes below the red zone, I’ll be actively looking for shorts targeting the 1.14600 region, with room to extend lower depending on how price reacts at the FVG.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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