EURUSD - Waiting for the Breakdown After 4H SweepEURUSD has just completed a sweep of the 4H highs, tagging liquidity resting above the consolidation range. That move looks like a classic inducement, with price now reacting lower and showing signs of weakness. This type of sweep, especially when it happens inside a range, often leads to a reversal back through the range, provided the internal low breaks cleanly. Right now, price is still hovering above that key point, but we can see signs of slowing momentum already.
Liquidity Context and Sweep Logic
This recent push above the highs fits well within ICT-style logic: a sweep of internal range liquidity that serves to fuel the opposite move. The chart shows a textbook example of a consolidation phase being manipulated to the upside first, where buy stops get triggered and liquidity is taken. The real move tends to unfold after that, once we get confirmation through structure breaks and displacement to the downside.
Structure Break and Bearish Confirmation
The internal low within the range is acting as a key trigger level. A clean break below that would serve as confirmation of a bearish market structure shift. That’s the point where the market goes from internal liquidity hunt to actual displacement. If that low gives way, the probability of continuation lower increases significantly, and that’s where I’ll be expecting price to seek the next pocket of liquidity.
Support and Key Area of Interest
There’s also a well-respected support level not too far below, one that price has bounced from several times. That area could either act as a temporary reaction zone or, if broken impulsively, could open the path toward deeper inefficiencies. Ideally, I want to see price break below both the internal low and this support area, then continue toward my next level of interest where I expect either a reaction or a higher probability setup to form.
Conclusion
For now, this setup is a waiting game. The liquidity has been swept on the upside, and now it’s all about whether the structure confirms to the downside. I’m not interested in chasing the first move. What I want to see is displacement below the internal low and support level, followed by continuation or a clean reaction from the next zone of interest.
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EURUSD trade ideas
EURUSDHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on EURUSD?
EURUSD remains below a key resistance zone, and at this stage, it does not appear to have enough momentum to break through.
We are watching for potential sell setups around this area.
As long as there is no daily candle close above the resistance, we expect a pullback toward the specified support level.
If a daily candle closes above the resistance zone, the bearish scenario will be invalidated, and the structure may shift.
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EUR/USD - Daily highs taken, now what?Introduction
The EUR/USD made a strong move higher today, establishing a clear uptrend on the 4-hour chart. With this latest push, it swept the daily liquidity above the previous high. The question now is whether the EUR/USD will continue moving higher or if there are opportunities for long entries at lower levels.
Liquidity Sweep
EUR/USD has taken out liquidity above the daily highs, where many stop losses are typically positioned. These stops have now been removed from the market. This area could potentially act as a support and resistance flip. However, if we see a 4-hour candle close below the previous daily high, further downside becomes likely.
Where Can We Look for Buys?
During the recent 4-hour move higher, significant progress was made. This upward movement created a daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) between $1.149 and $1.145. This FVG aligns perfectly with the golden pocket Fibonacci level, drawn from the swing low to the swing high. As a result, this zone forms a strong area of confluence for potential buy positions to target a retest of the highs.
Conclusion
Although we are currently breaking above the previous high, this move has yet to be confirmed as sustainable. Holding above this level is crucial. If a 4-hour candle closes below the previous high, it becomes likely that we will revisit the daily FVG and golden pocket Fibonacci zone.
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EURO - Price will strart to grow and exit from wedge patternHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Price entered to wedge pattern and at once dropped below $1.1455 level, breaking it and then some time traded below.
It continued to decline and in a short time reached $1.1220 level and broke it, after which fell to support line.
Then price started to grow and soon broke $1.1220 level one more time, after which made a retest and continued to grow.
Euro rose to $1.1420 points and then corrected to support level, after which turned around and rose to resistance level.
Recently price reached resistance level, but then it bounced and started to decline, and now it continues to fall.
I think that Euro can decline a little more and then bounce up to $1.1550, exiting from wedge.
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Euro may reach seller zone and then continue to declineHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. In this chart, the price started to grow, bouncing from the support line, and soon reached the support level, which coincided with the buyer zone. Then it declined to support line, making the correction and then made an impulse up from this line to the resistance level, breaking the 1.1070 level. After this movement, the Euro made a correction and then continued to grow and broke the resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone, and even rose higher than the seller zone. But soon Euro turned around and started to decline and broke the 1.1455 level again, after which it declined to the support line inside the range. Price little grew near this line, but later broke the support line and continued to decline. It fell to the support level, which is the bottom part of the range, and then started to grow. Euro later reached the top part of the range, which is the resistance level, and not long time ago turned around and started to decline. So, after looking for this chart, I think that the Euro may enter to seller zone and then continue to decline inside the range. For this case, I set my TP at 1.1250 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
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EUR/USD: Euro Pops Above $1.16 in Four-Year High. What’s Next?The dollar wobbles, Trump talks tariffs, and the euro’s got its dancing shoes on.
The Euro Wakes Up, Stretching Its Legs at $1.16
Look who just rolled out of bed and decided to make a scene.
For the first time in four years, the euro has finally leapt out of its slumber and sprinted to $1.16 — all at the expense of the US dollar, which continues to shed value.
The FX:EURUSD isn’t just crawling higher. It’s flexing, fueled by dollar fatigue, political drama, and some very European stubbornness.
So what’s behind the move? Why is the euro soaring while the European Central Bank is actually cutting rates? And what’s the dollar doing? Let's unpack it all — one central bank, one tweet, and one inflation print at a time.
Trump’s Tariff Ping-Pong: Back On, Back Off
Let’s start with the one thing that never quite leaves the headlines: Trump’s trade policy.
Just when traders were catching their breath after some tariff reprieve on China, the market got pulled back into the mess. “WE ARE GETTING A TOTAL OF 55% TARIFFS, CHINA IS GETTING 10%. RELATIONSHIP IS EXCELLENT,” Trump posted on Truth Social late on Wednesday, reigniting fears that the trade war is getting heated up again. Especially after a US squad of negotiators touched down in London and walked away with some promising news .
Markets don’t love confusion. Investors especially don’t love a US trade policy that changes faster than the Nasdaq NASDAQ:IXIC during CPI week. This kind of noise erodes confidence in US economic leadership and — more importantly — in the dollar.
The world’s most important currency is starting to feel… less important, less relevant, and less reliable. And while it’s not collapsing, it’s definitely catching fewer friends at the FX party.
On the other side of the pond, the euro isn’t rising because Europe is crushing it (even though it’s doing pretty well against rival currencies, just check the forex heatmap ) — it’s rising because the dollar is slipping off its pedestal. So yes, the euro’s up. But this isn’t a standing ovation for Europe — it’s more of a polite shrug away from America.
US Inflation Creeps Higher — And That Means a Cut?
US inflation picked up to 2.4% in May but still left the door open for a cut by the Federal Reserve.
So what does the market do? It prices in a cut.
Lower rates mean lower yields on Treasuries, which means less incentive for global investors to hold dollars. And when the yield game turns dull, guess what gets more attention? Gold OANDA:XAUUSD — because if your asset doesn’t yield anything, at least let it be shiny.
ECB Cuts Again, and the Euro Still Rises?
Now here’s the riddle. The ECB last week cut its benchmark rate to 2% , hitting a two-year low. By all textbook logic, a rate cut should weaken the local currency.
Here’s why it’s rising instead:
Markets are forward-looking . The rate cut was expected and already priced in. What matters now is whether more cuts are coming (spoiler: not too many). Traders are betting the ECB is nearing the end of its easing cycle — and may turn neutral soon.
The Fed looks more dovish . Rate differentials still matter. Even if the ECB is cutting, the Fed is expected to cut more over the next 12 months. That narrows the gap between euro and dollar yields, making the euro more attractive in relative terms.
Eurozone data isn’t great — but it’s not falling apart either. While growth in the eurozone isn’t setting any records, it’s been just OK to support the currency. Inflation is cooling in line with ECB targets, unemployment remains low, and key sectors like manufacturing are showing signs of life.
Put it all together and you get a euro that’s rising despite rate cuts — a phenomenon that would make FX professors tear their hair out, but makes perfect sense when you zoom out.
Technicals: This Isn’t a Flash in the Pan
From a chartist’s perspective, the FX:EURUSD breakout above $1.16 was a big deal. That level had acted as resistance since November 2021. Now cleared, a flurry of algo buys and retail FOMO might fuel the next leg in either direction.
From the bulls’ perspective, momentum is picking up, and the euro looks poised to test $1.17–$1.18 if the dollar stays fragile (that said, keep your eye on any hot news coming out of the economic calendar ). RSI is not yet flashing overbought, and MACD is still screaming “more grounds to cover.”
Question is: How long can the euro dance before the music changes? And we’re asking you — share your thoughts on the euro-dollar pair and let’s see who gets it right!
Euro can reach resistance line of channel and make correctionHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Previously, price was trading inside a downward channel, gradually declining from the resistance line while forming a series of lower highs and lower lows. During that phase, sellers were clearly in control, and every attempt to grow was met with pressure near the channel’s upper boundary. However, that trend shifted once the price broke through the resistance line, confirming the end of the bearish momentum and the start of a new upward structure. After the breakout, EUR entered an upward channel, supported by multiple bullish impulses and consistent reactions near the support line. Price continued to rise, pushing through the support area and current support level around 1.1420. This upward movement showed strong bullish conviction, especially after the clean breakout and consolidation inside the channel body. Now the pair has approached the resistance line of the rising channel, where previous impulses typically slowed down or reversed. Given the channel geometry and past market behavior, I expect Euro to react to this upper boundary and move downward. For this reason, I set my TP at 1.1325, which aligns with the support line of the upward channel. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
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EURUSD Setup | CPI Fades, Fed Focus & Gold Leads Dollar ReboundEURUSD is showing signs of exhaustion after soft US CPI failed to extend the rally beyond 1.1495. While markets initially priced in a dovish Fed response, recent commentary and gold’s rejection from its highs suggest the dollar may be gearing up for a short-term recovery. With Gold pulling back and yields stabilizing, EURUSD could now follow suit lower into key support levels—especially if the Fed maintains a patient tone at this week’s meeting.
🔹 EURUSD (4H) Analysis
📉 Bias: Bearish
💡 Context:
EURUSD stalled just below 1.1500 after the CPI miss and now sits at a high-liquidity reversal zone. With DXY stabilizing and gold already rolling over, EURUSD may lag behind but eventually follow the same path. If the Fed leans hawkish or even neutral (ignoring political pressure), it could catalyze a drop toward 1.1268 and below.
📊 Technical Levels:
Resistance Zone: 1.1495–1.1530
Target 1: 1.1268
Target 2: 1.1086
Invalidation: Daily close above 1.1530 (or strong bullish follow-through after FOMC)
🪙 Leading Asset Clue:
Gold has already rejected major resistance (3,390–3,403) and is now pulling lower. Historically, EURUSD tends to follow when metals stall—especially if driven by real yields and Fed dynamics.
⚠️ Fundamentals to Watch:
🏦 FOMC Rate Decision & Dot Plot (June 12)
📈 US PPI + Jobless Claims (June 13)
💬 Fed Chair Powell's Press Conference
📰 Any shift in ECB or Fed rate cut timelines
🧠 Risk Factors:
Fed surprise dovish shift due to CPI softness
Market overreacts to rate cut expectations
Geopolitical risk-off flows favoring EUR
✅ Summary: Bias and Watchpoints
EURUSD
Bearish
Fed holding firm vs. ECB easing bias
Fed turning dovish post-CPI (Top Risk)
FOMC Rate Decision, PPI, Powell
📌 Final Note:
Gold is leading the turn as dollar strength resurfaces. EURUSD may lag initially but the macro context favors downside from this key resistance zone. Watch the Fed for confirmation—positioning into 1.1268 and 1.1086 looks attractive if the dollar gains traction post-FOMC.
EURO - Price will exit from pennant and then make correctionHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some days ago price reached $1.0950 level and then made a correction movement, after which started to grow in a pennant.
Price made an upward impulse from support line of pennant and broke $1.0950 level, after which made a retest.
Then price continued to move up and reached $1.1300 level, and soon broke it too, and then made a correction movement.
After this, price rose to resistance line of pennant and then started to decline and soon broke $1.1300 level again.
But later it boucned from support line and backed up, and even now it trades very close to resistance line.
In my mind, Euro can rise a little, thereby exiting from pennant and then make a correction to $1.1300 level.
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EURUSD: Bears May Regain Control of the PriceEURUSD: Bears May Regain Control of the Price
From our previous analysis, EURUSD extended the Z wave to 1.1495 due to high volatility and speculation related to Trump's comments against China and the old price theme.
However, nothing changed again. EURUSD found sellers near 1.1495 which had already rejected the price again and it seems that the downward movement may resume soon.
We do not have clear signs of a reversal yet, but as long as the price is holding and the patterns are valid, the chances are that EURUSD will fall as shown in the chart.
Bearish Targets:
1.1230 – First major support level
1.1100 – Possible second target
1.1000 – A deeper correction point
1.0900 – Strong structural support
You may find more details in the chart!
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Lingrid | EURUSD potential Sideways Consolidation PhaseFX:EURUSD recently tested the upper boundary of the resistance zone near 1.14550 and produced a fake breakout above the trendline. The pair is now showing signs of hesitation below that level, suggesting a potential move toward the consolidation area. A breakdown below 1.14000 may trigger a decline back to 1.13550 support.
📈 Key Levels
Buy zone: 1.13550–1.13800
Buy trigger: bounce from support with bullish engulfing pattern
Target: 1.14550
Sell trigger: confirmed close below 1.14000
💡 Risks
Prolonged consolidation weakens bullish momentum
Failure to reclaim 1.14550 may lead to deeper pullback
Breakdown of trendline support would shift bias bearish
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Analysis and Forecast for EUE/USDToday, the EUR/USD pair is under pressure, having failed to consolidate above the 1.1447 level and showing intraday declines toward the psychological level of 1.1415 and below, amid U.S. dollar strength.
The main drive of the dollar's rise was Friday's strong U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which reduced expectations for an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year. In addition, optimism surrounding the potential resumption of U.S. -China trade talks is dampening bearish sentiment toward the dollar, thereby adding further pressure on EU/USD.
Nevertheless. ongoing negotiation in London and the upcoming key U.S. inflation data later this week are prompting traders to remain cautious and refrain from opening aggressive positions. The market still considers a September Fed rate cut likely, and concerns about the U.S. government's fiscal position are limiting the dollar's upside potential, which in turn lends some support to the euro.
On the other hand, the European Central Bank signaled at its latest meeting that the current rate-cutting cycle may be nearing an end. This also supports the euro and helps limit EUR/USD losses. In the absence of significant economic releases from the eurozone or the U.S. today, the pair's movement is mainly driven by dollar dynamics.
Technically, in order to resume upward movement, EUR/USD needs to break through resistance in the 1.1450-1.1460 level, which could open the path toward the psychological level of 1.1500. A break above that could lead to a retest of late-April highs. Otherwise, the risk of further decline toward the 1.1370 support level remains. However, oscillators on the daily chart are still in positive territory, indicating a generally constructive outlook for the pair.
In the short term, caution advised, with focus on signals from the trade negotiations and upcoming economic data.
EURUSD Analysis – Short Bias Builds on Key Resistance RejectionEURUSD pair is currently testing a critical resistance zone around 1.1495–1.1500, with bearish rejection beginning to form on the 4H timeframe. The technical setup suggests a potential lower high forming within the context of a broader downtrend, supported by a confluence of horizontal resistance and bearish risk catalysts.
🔍 Technical Overview:
Resistance Zone: 1.1495–1.1575 (multi-timeframe key levels)
Support Levels to Watch: 1.1234 (range base) and 1.1086 (swing low)
Price Action: After a sustained rally, price is showing exhaustion near previous highs, and a rejection pattern is emerging, suggesting selling interest.
Risk Management: Stop placed above 1.1575 high, with downside targets near 1.1234 and extended toward 1.1086.
🧠 Fundamental Backdrop:
ECB Policy Outlook: Lagarde recently warned that a stronger euro and higher tariffs may hurt EU exports. This dovish tone could weigh on EUR sentiment in the medium term.
US Dollar Strengthening: The latest US labor market data (ADP, JOLTS) beat expectations, showing continued resilience in employment and wage growth. This supports the Fed's data-dependent approach, favoring a stronger USD.
Macro Tensions: Global trade concerns (Trump’s tariffs, weak China demand, Germany’s slowing job market) are adding pressure to EUR while supporting safe-haven USD flows.
ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (April): Highlights persistent inflation fears and deteriorating economic confidence.
⏳ Scenario Outlook:
✅ Bearish Bias Preferred below 1.1500 with confirmation of rejection.
🎯 Target Zone 1: 1.1234 – Strong structure & demand zone.
🎯 Target Zone 2 (Extended): 1.1086 – Major low from mid-May.
❌ Invalidation: A breakout and close above 1.1575 would neutralize the bearish outlook and open up higher targets toward 1.17.
Conclusion: The EURUSD pair presents a compelling short opportunity, with both technical resistance and macro pressure aligning for a retracement or reversal. Short setups are favored unless bulls reclaim and hold above the 1.1575 handle.
EUR/USD Bulls in Control... But the Trap Is Set at 1.1600? 🇺🇸 EUR/USD – Technical & Macro Outlook
EUR/USD has posted an impressive rally over the past few weeks, driven by a combination of technical and macro factors. It is currently trading around 1.1586, right at the edge of a major supply zone where previous sharp rejections and reversals have taken place.
🔍 Technical Analysis
Price action remains within a well-defined ascending channel that began in mid-April, fueling the bullish move from the 1.07 lows.
The current daily candle is showing signs of exhaustion within the 1.1550–1.1600 resistance zone, with upper wicks and declining volume.
RSI is in a high-neutral zone but not yet overbought, leaving room for more upside — but also increasing the probability of a technical pullback.
🔁 Key Levels:
Primary resistance: 1.1600 (multi-touch supply area)
Support 1: 1.1460–1.1430 (previous resistance, now potential support)
Support 2: 1.1300–1.1270 (demand zone + channel base)
📉 COT Report – June 3, 2025
Non-Commercials (speculators) remain net-long with over 200,000 contracts, though both long (-1,540) and short (-4,830) positions saw reductions. This suggests a bullish structure with early signs of profit-taking.
Commercials are heavily net-short, with 575,000 short contracts versus 437,000 long — a structurally bearish stance from physical market participants.
Open interest increased significantly by +20,813, pointing to renewed speculative participation and potential volatility.
🧭 Retail Sentiment
Retail traders are heavily short (80%) with an average entry around 1.1253.
This contrarian behavior is typically supportive of continued upside pressure — especially if price holds above key supports.
📅 Seasonality – June
Historical averages over 10, 15, and 20 years show a slightly bullish tendency in June.
The 2- and 5-year patterns suggest more neutral to mildly bearish behavior.
This supports a consolidation or corrective pullback, without ruling out higher moves during the summer rally.
🎯 Trading Conclusion
Current bias: Moderately bullish, with rising pullback risks near 1.1600
Possible setup: Tactical short between 1.1580–1.1610 if confirmed by bearish price action
Target: 1.1430–1.1300
Bullish scenario remains valid unless we break below 1.1270
📌 Summary
The bullish trend is strong but technically extended. Speculative positions remain net-long but are starting to unwind. The retail crowd is still betting against the move, which favors bulls. However, structural resistance calls for caution — a pullback could be imminent.
HelenP. I Euro may break suppot level and drop to trend lineHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. Observing this chart, we can see how the price strongly declined and reached the trend line, where it found solid support and reversed. From that point, EUR began to grow, forming a clear upward pennant structure. This movement included a break above the local support level at 1.1485, indicating temporary bullish strength. However, despite this breakout, the price failed to secure a strong push through the resistance zone between 1.1485 and 1.1530, instead consolidating just below it. Now the chart shows clear signs of slowing upward momentum. The price remains inside the pennant, but current movement suggests potential weakness near the top boundary. Given the structure and previous reaction points, I expect EURUSD to break below the support level and move toward the trend line again. This would be a natural retest of the lower boundary of the pennant. That’s why I’ve set my target at 1.1365, a level that coincides perfectly with the trend line, offering a realistic area for price to react once more. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
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EUR/USD remains bullish
💡Message Strategy
The EUR/USD exchange rate continued to rise in the European session, gradually approaching the previous high of around 1.1600. The US dollar continued to be under pressure due to the market's rising expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year and the increasing uncertainty surrounding the US foreign trade policy.
US President Trump recently said that he would send letters to trading partners in the next one to two weeks to notify them of unilateral new tariff measures, which once again plunged the market into a state of worry. In addition, the US CPI annual rate in May was 2.4%, lower than the expected 2.5%, which strengthened the bet that the Federal Reserve will restart the interest rate cut cycle in September.
At the same time, the relatively hawkish signal of "interest rates close to neutral levels" released by ECB President Lagarde, coupled with the market's rethinking of the role of the euro in the context of "de-dollarization", jointly supported the upward structure of the exchange rate. Currently, traders are paying close attention to the US PPI data and initial jobless claims to be released in the evening, which may have a traction on the short-term trend of the US dollar.
📊Technical aspects
Judging from the chart, the current price of EUR/USD is near the upper track of the Bollinger Band (1.1548), and the Bollinger Band is in an expanding state. The width of the Bollinger Band has widened, reflecting the increase in volatility, suggesting that there may be a possibility of a large-volume breakthrough in the future.
In terms of MACD indicator, the DIFF line continues to rise and forms a golden cross with the DEA line. Although the momentum of the bar chart is not strong, it has not turned negative, indicating that the bullish momentum is moderate; RSI is running around 64, close to the overbought area but no divergence is formed. The market momentum is bullish and the technical side is slightly bullish.
Short-term support is at 1.1500 and 1.1440; if it effectively breaks through 1.1600, the upside space may reach 1.17.
💰 Strategy Package
Long Position: 1.1450-1.1550
Bigger correction for EUHi traders,
Last week EU did not make an impulse wave 3 but instead it slowly went up. And after the ECB rate decision on Thursday it started to drop.
At the moment the pattern is not very clear.
This could be a bigger correction down for wave 4 (black) so my main bias is to the downside.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for the finish of a small correction up to trade shorts.
If you want to learn more about trading with FVG's, liquidity sweeps and Wave analysis, then make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
EURUSD Analysis Today: Technical and Order Flow Analysis !In this video I will be sharing my EURUSD analysis today, by providing my complete technical and order flow analysis, so you can watch it to possibly improve your forex trading skillset. The video is structured in 3 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the COT data analysis, so how the big payers in market are moving their orders, and to do this I will be using my customized proprietary software and then I will be putting together these two different types of analysis.
EURUSD: Breakout and Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.14200 zone, EURUSD was trading in an uptrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 1.14200 support and resistance zone.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURUSD has follow the ascending channel bullish from support FX:EURUSD Analysis – 1H Time Frame
EUR/USD is currently respecting an ascending channel and showing strong bullish momentum from the key demand zone at 1.13900.
🎯 Technical Targets:
1st Target: 1.14600
2nd Target: 1.15000
The price action confirms buyer interest and continued upside potential, as long as the structure holds.
📊 Stay tuned for more updates and trade setups!
💬 Like, follow, and drop your thoughts in the comments!
— With love,
Livia 😜
EUR/USD - After taking the highs, are the lows next?The EUR/USD currency pair is moving between two important price levels. The top level is 1.1454 and the bottom level is 1.1357. This means the price is staying inside a range. Yesterday, the price of EUR/USD went above the top level of 1.1454. By doing this, it triggered many stop-loss orders from traders who were expecting the price to go down. These traders had placed their stop-losses just above this level, and the market moved up to take them out.
Current support of the 1H FVG
Now, the price is starting to go down again. It is getting closer to the lower level of the range, which is around 1.1357. There is a chance that the market will go below this level as well. If that happens, it may take out the stop-loss orders of traders who are expecting the price to go up. These traders often place their stop-losses just below the low point of the range. When the market goes below the low, it collects liquidity. In simple words, it grabs the orders that are waiting there.
Looking at the chart, we can see that EUR/USD has found some support at the 1-hour Fair Value Gap (1H FVG). This area is acting like a short-term floor for the price. If a full 1-hour candle closes below this support area, then the price will likely fall further. In that case, it may reach the bottom of the range and possibly move below it to take out more stop-losses.
Why below support?
But why would the market go below the low on purpose? The reason is that many retail traders, those are small traders who trade from home, often put their stop-losses just below the recent low. If the market moves there, it activates those stop-losses. These stop-losses are usually sell orders, and when they get triggered, it gives the market extra selling power. After collecting this liquidity, the market often uses the new buying interest (from other traders entering long positions) to push the price back up again.
Conclusion
So in summary, the EUR/USD is still inside a range. It has already moved above the top to take out stop-losses, and now it might go below the bottom to do the same. After that, there could be a strong move upward, powered by the new liquidity in the market.
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