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EURUSD trade ideas

EURO - Price can continue to grow inside rising channelHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 The price traded in a flat range between $1.1500 and $1.1750 for an extended period, testing both extremes multiple times with low volatility and indecision. A breakout above $1.1750 initially looked promising but turned into a fakeout when sellers quickly pushed the price back below $1.1725, trapping aggressive longs. After that shakeout, buyers regained control and propelled EUR into a rising channel, marked by higher highs and higher lows since the end of June. Price has since respected the lower boundary of this rising channel near $1.1725–$1.1750, using it as reliable support for continued gains. With two confirmed breakouts and the channel structure intact, bullish momentum suggests the pair can extend its move higher within the channel. I expect Euro to continue climbing toward the next key resistance at $1.1980, where the upper channel line and structural supply zone converge. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️ Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Long
by WalterMoon
29
EURUSD - Compression Before Expansion? Key Reversal ZoneEURUSD is currently trading within a clear descending channel after rejecting a key resistance area. This move signals a shift in short-term sentiment, with bearish momentum guiding price action lower. The channel structure is intact, and as long as price respects this slope, lower levels remain in play. Rejection From Resistance After tapping into the major resistance zone, price failed to break higher and began forming lower highs and lower lows, confirming seller control. The rejection was clean and initiated the current bearish structure, which now serves as a roadmap for potential continuation lower. Imbalance and Downside Targets Below current price, there’s a visible imbalance that remains unfilled within the highlighted purple zone. This area acts as a magnet for price, especially if the bearish structure continues. A drop into this zone would align with a textbook move to fill inefficiency before a potential reversal can occur. Support Structure and Liquidity Zone There’s a strong support level marked just above the imbalance, which may offer a temporary reaction or even serve as a springboard for a reversal. This is also a likely liquidity pool, and a sweep of these lows could generate the fuel needed for a bullish move back toward mid-channel or even higher. Projection and Scenarios Price may either continue respecting the channel boundaries with stair-step retracements down into the imbalance, or break structure early with a more aggressive reversal once the inefficiency is filled. A deeper move into the purple zone followed by a reaction would suggest a potential shift in momentum. Conclusion The pair remains in a bearish corrective phase for now, with room to dip further into the unmitigated imbalance. Watch for how price reacts at support and whether a clean sweep and reversal setup presents itself. Until then, the channel remains the dominant structure guiding this move. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
by TehThomas
43
EURUSD – Bearish Reversal Confirmed After Structural BreakEURUSD has shifted out of its bullish environment after a sustained rally inside a clean ascending channel. Price recently rejected a resistance zone that capped previous buying pressure and has now started to rotate downward. This marks the first serious challenge to the trend and sets the tone for a potential bearish phase. Channel Breakdown and Price Behavior The ascending channel had been respected for several sessions, guiding price upward with consistent higher highs and higher lows. The recent breakdown from this structure is significant, as it shows the market is no longer willing to support higher prices within that controlled environment. This type of breakout often signals a loss of momentum and increased volatility in the opposite direction. Break of the Low and Shift in Structure After breaking the channel, price also took out a major internal low, which had previously held during retracements. This is a key signal of a structural shift, confirming that the uptrend has been interrupted. When price breaks a low that buyers had been defending, it shows sellers have stepped in with conviction and are likely aiming lower targets. Short-Term Target and Reaction Zone The first area of interest sits just below current price where a support shelf and price inefficiencies line up. This zone, marked with the dollar sign symbol on the chart, may attract a short-term reaction. If buyers are still present, this is where they would likely try to step in. However, the rejection from resistance and the structural break suggest this level could eventually give way. Imbalance Zone Below and Liquidity Target If that support fails, the next high-probability draw is the large untested imbalance sitting further below. This zone has remained untouched since the rally began and represents unfinished business for the market. Price often seeks out these inefficiencies, especially after trend shifts, making it a natural target for sellers if momentum continues. Conclusion EURUSD is showing clear signs of bearish pressure after rejecting resistance, breaking structure, and leaving behind unmitigated downside targets. As long as we remain below the broken low, the path of least resistance points lower. The imbalance zone below remains the key destination unless the market shows signs of reversal higher. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
Short
by TehThomas
58
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): LONG to the resistance area 1.20000.Colleagues, I believe that the upward impulse is not over yet. Wave “3” of the higher order and wave “3” of the lower order are just completing their movement, and I think that at the moment it is worth looking at the resistance area of 1.20000. This is a very attractive psychological level where wave “3” could complete its upward movement. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Long
by Hellena_Trade
22
How to Trade Liquidity Sweep in Forex Market (SMC Trading) I will show you a real example of trading liquidity sweep with Smart Money Concepts. You will learn the essential SMC liquidity basics, a simple and profitable strategy to identify and trade liquidity sweep. I will share with you an accurate entry confirmation signal that works perfectly on any Forex pair. Liquidity Basics In order to trade liquidity sweeps profitably, you should learn to identify significant liquidity zones. To spot them, analyze a historic price action and find clusters of important historic key levels. Examine a price action on EURUSD on an hourly time frame. I underlined multiple horizontal key levels. The price respected each level, found support on them, and rebounded. What is so specific about these levels is that they are lying close to each other, composing a liquidity cluster. That fact that EURUSD strongly bounced from these levels suggests that buying interest and high buying volumes were concentrated around them. We can unite these levels and treat them as a single demand zone that has just been broken and turned into a supply zone. After we found a valid liquidity zone, we can look for a liquidity sweep. First, we should let the price approach that area and look for a specific price behavior then. That is a perfect example of a liquidity sweep. You can see that the price formed a wide range candle with a long tail. Its high went way beyond the underlined area, but its body closed within. In order to understand, why a liquidity sweep occurred, let's zoom in our chart and try to understand a behavior of the market participants. Our supply zone concentrated selling orders , we assume that sellers were placing their orders across its entire length. Their stop losses were presumably lying above that area. Smart Money know that and with a liquidity sweep they manipulate the market, making sellers close their positions in a loss (buying back their positions from the market) and providing a liquidity for big players. After a formation of a such a candlestick, a reliable confirmation of a saturation of the Smart Money is a formation of a strong bearish candle - a clear sign of strength of the sellers. A bearish engulfing candle above confirmed a completion of a liquidity sweep and indicates a highly probable bearish continuation. Your perfect sell entry is immediately after a close of such a candlestick. Stop loss should strictly lie above the high of a liquidity sweep. Take profit is based on a local low. Look, how quickly the price reached the goal. Your strategy of trading liquidity sweeps of demand zones is absolutely the same. Let the price test a demand zone, wait for a formation of wide range bearish candle with a tail going below its lows. Wait for a bullish imbalance candle and buy immediately then. Stop loss will be below the low of a liquidity sweep, take profit - a local high. This SMC strategy works on any time frame and can be applied for trading any Forex pair, Gold, Silver, Crypto and commodities. Try it by your own and let me know your results. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Education
by VasilyTrader
14
EURUSD I Monday CLS I Model 1Hey, Market Warriors, here is another outlook on this instrument If you’ve been following me, you already know every setup you see is built around a CLS Footprint, a Key Level, Liquidity and a specific execution model. If you haven't followed me yet, start now. My trading system is completely mechanical — designed to remove emotions, opinions, and impulsive decisions. No messy diagonal lines. No random drawings. Just clarity, structure, and execution. 🧩 What is CLS? CLS is real smart money — the combined power of major investment banks and central banks moving over 6.5 trillion dollars a day. Understanding their operations is key to markets. ✅ Understanding the behavior of CLS allows you to position yourself with the giants during the market manipulations — leading to buying lows and selling highs - cleaner entries, clearer exits, and consistent profits. 📍 Model 1 is right after the manipulation of the CLS candle when CIOD occurs, and we are targeting 50% of the CLS range. H4 CLS ranges supported by HTF go straight to the opposing range. "Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own." — David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️ 👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions.
Short
by David_Perk
27
EURUSD COT and Liquidity AnalysisHey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. It's always good to go with those who move the market here is what I see in their cards. I share my COT - order flow views every weekend. 🎯 Non Commercials added significant longs which creates a strong support, we will most likely see higher prices over time. 📍Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage. 💊 Tip if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance. 👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions. Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. "Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own." — David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
Long
by David_Perk
10
Euro can rebound up from support area to 1.1860 pointsHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. In this chart, we can see how the price has been moving confidently inside an upward channel after breaking out of a wedge formation. Previously, price consolidated within a narrowing wedge pattern above the buyer zone and broke upward, showing strong bullish momentum. That breakout initiated the current uptrend and led to the formation of a new support area. Now, price is pulling back from the resistance line of the channel and approaching this support area, which also coincides with the support line of the channel. This confluence increases the probability of a bullish reaction in this region. The structure suggests that buyers may step in around this level, preventing a deeper retracement. If the pair bounces off the support zone, I expect a continuation of the uptrend toward the upper boundary of the channel. For that reason, I set my TP at 1.1860 points, almost aligning with the resistance line of the channel. Given the current price action, the bullish structure, and strong reaction levels, I remain bullish and anticipate a rebound followed by further growth toward my target. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀 Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Long
by LegionQ8
16
Lingrid | EURUSD Bullish Trend ContinuesFX:EURUSD is holding a bullish structure inside an upward channel after bouncing from the 1.1670 demand zone. The current retracement appears corrective, and buyers may step in again near the confluence of the trendline and horizontal support. If confirmed, the price is expected to push toward the 1.1885 resistance and the upper channel target at 1.1900. 📈 Key Levels Buy zone: 1.1650–1.1680 (trendline + key support) Sell trigger: break below 1.1600 Target: 1.1885 – 1.1900 zone Buy trigger: bullish reversal candle near 1.1700 💡 Risks Failure to hold trendline support could lead to deeper retracement 1.1885 may cap upside if momentum fades Bearish divergence could emerge if price surges too fast If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!
Long
by Lingrid
23
EUR/USD Reversal Ahead? COT + DXY Strength Signal Price has broken below the ascending channel that started in mid-May. The current candle is rejecting the weekly supply zone (1.17566–1.18319), leaving a significant upper wick. Daily RSI is losing strength but has not yet reached extreme levels. A key daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) lies between 1.1600 and 1.1480, with the first potential downside target at 1.14802, which aligns with support and the FVG zone. A deeper bearish continuation could push price towards 1.1350, but only if the FVG lows are clearly broken. 📊 COT Data (CME - Euro FX & USD Index) Euro FX Net long: +15,334 Commercials increased both longs (+13,550) and shorts (+9,913) → mild divergence. Non-Commercials (speculators) increased shorts (+4,786) more than longs (+1,188) → speculative bias tilting bearish. USD Index Strong net long accumulation across all trader types: +4,597 net. Non-Commercials added +3,590 longs, with only a minor increase in shorts. → USD strength continues, reinforcing potential weakness in EUR/USD. 🧠 Retail Sentiment 67% of retail traders are short EUR/USD → typically a contrarian bullish signal. However, the price is already showing distribution, not accumulation, so we may see price push lower first to trap remaining retail longs, invalidating the contrarian signal in the short term. 📅 Seasonality July is historically bullish, especially on the 2Y (+0.0142) and 10Y (+0.0106) averages. However, the 15Y and 20Y averages show a much more moderate performance (+0.007 / +0.0025). Based on current price action, the seasonal rally may have already played out with the run-up to 1.1830. A correction now seems likely, even if the broader macro remains supportive mid-term. 🧩 Conclusion Despite historically bullish seasonality for July, both price action and COT data indicate distribution with early signs of reversal. Retail sentiment is too skewed short for a major breakdown just yet, but the technicals support a short-term pullback toward more balanced levels. USD strength from COT and DXY structure reinforces a corrective short bias for now.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
11
EURUSDEUR/USD Exchange Rate EUR/USD: 1.17735 The euro has strengthened against the US dollar, trading near its highest level since early 2024, supported by a softer DXY and stable Eurozone outlook. 10-Year Government Bond Yields Region 10-Year Yield Date Eurozone 2.560% July 5, 2025 United States 4.348% July 5, 2025 The US 10-year Treasury yield remains above the Eurozone’s, but the gap has narrowed in recent months. Central Bank Policy Rates Central Bank Policy Rate Last Change/Status ECB 2.00% (Deposit Rate) Cut by 25 bps in June 2025 Federal Reserve 4.25%–4.50% Unchanged since Dec 2024 The ECB recently cut its deposit rate to 2.00% RFR 2.15% MLF 2.4%, its lowest in over two years, as inflation nears target and growth remains subdued. The Fed has held its target range steady at 4.25%–4.50% since December 2024, with markets expecting possible cuts later in 2025 on cautious wait and see approach by feds Rate and Yield Differentials Metric US Eurozone Differential (US - Eurozone) Policy Rate 4.25–4.50% 2.00% 2.25–2.50% 10-Year Bond Yield 4.35% 2.560% 1.79% Yield Differential: The US 10-year yield exceeds the Eurozone’s by 1.79 percentage points, a key driver for capital flows and EUR/USD direction ,but strong euro zone economic outlook offset the yield and bond advantage giving the euro buy advantage . Policy Rate Differential: The Fed’s policy rate is 2.25–2.50 percentage points higher than the ECB’s, though the gap is expected to narrow if the Fed cuts rates later this year. Market Implications EUR/USD: The narrowing yield and rate differentials have supported euro strength in recent weeks. Bond Markets: US yields remain higher, but the Eurozone’s 10-year yield is at a multi-year high, reflecting persistent inflation and reduced ECB accommodation. Central Bank Outlook: Both the Fed and ECB are expected to remain data-dependent, with further easing possible if economic conditions warrant. The euro is currently strong against the dollar, with narrowing rate and yield differentials reflecting shifting monetary policy expectations and global economic condition. #eurusd
Long
by Shavyfxhub
15
Navigating the Complexities of Forex Swap RatesNavigating the Complexities of Forex Swap Rates Forex swap rates, pivotal in currency trading, reflect the cost of holding a position overnight. This article unpacks swaps, offering clarity on their calculation and impact. Even seasoned traders may be confused with the complexity of swaps. It’s vital to learn about how these costs relate to effective strategy and fee management. Dive into the complexities of forex swaps and learn how they can influence decisions and overall performance in the ever-evolving trading world. Understanding Forex Swap Rates For traders, understanding forex market swap rates is crucial. A swap is essentially the interest differential paid or charged to a trader when they hold a position overnight. The concept hinges on the idea that when you trade currencies, you are effectively borrowing one currency to buy another. Hence, these rates come into play, reflecting the cost of the process. The swap rate definition boils down to the interest rate difference between the two currencies involved in a trade. For instance, if you are going long in a pair like EUR/USD, the swap rate would be determined by the difference in interest rates set by the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. If the borrowing cost of the euro is lower than that of the dollar, holding the EUR/USD pair overnight would typically result in a charge. Conversely, if the euro has a higher borrowing cost, you might see your balance credited. Calculating swaps involves a straightforward formula: Swap rate = (Contract size × Interest differential) ÷ 365 This calculation takes into account the size of your position and the interest rate difference, providing a daily cost or gain for holding the position. Understanding these costs is vital when it comes to managing trading expenses and strategy in the forex market. Key Elements Influencing Swap Rates Several factors play pivotal roles in determining overnight swap rates in the forex market. 1. Interest Rate Differentials: The primary driver of overnight rates, interest differentials stem from the varying monetary policies of central banks. For example, if the Bank of England has a higher lending rate than the Federal Reserve, a buy trade in GBP/USD could mean earning for maintaining the position overnight. 2. Market Conditions: Economic stability, political events, and financial market volatility can significantly impact overnight charges. During periods of high volatility or geopolitical uncertainty, rates may fluctuate more dramatically, reflecting the increased market risk. 3. Liquidity: The level of liquidity in the market often influences overnight costs. In less liquid markets and less commonly traded pairs, higher swaps might be charged due to the increased cost of facilitating these trades. 4. Broker Policies: Different forex brokers might have varying policies and calculations for their own swaps. These differences usually arise from the brokers' own pricing structures, risk management strategies, and competitive positioning in the market. As such, traders should be aware that overnight charges vary from broker to broker. Types of Forex Swaps There are primarily two types of swaps that traders may encounter, each serving distinct purposes and offering unique implications for trading strategies. 1. Interest Swaps: These involve the exchange of interest payments between parties. In forex, it typically manifests as the fee a trader pays or receives for holding a position overnight. They directly impact the cost of maintaining open positions in different pairs. 2. Currency Swaps (Cross-Currency Swaps): Also known as a currency rate swap, this involves exchanging principal and interest payments in two different currencies. While less common in everyday retail forex activities, they are important in managing currency exposure and risk, particularly in hedging strategies. Currency swaps are used to secure a predetermined exchange rate for a specified currency amount while incorporating a benchmarked or fixed interest rate. This type is usually used by corporations or brokers. Regarding fixed swap rates, they are less common in the forex market compared to the more prevalent floating swap rates. They’re often used in less volatile financial environments and typically find their application in long-term financial instruments or corporate finance rather than in the day-to-day trading of currencies. Strategies for Managing Swap Rates Management of swaps in forex involves several key strategies: - Short-term Trading: By closing positions before the end of the trading day, traders can avoid incurring overnight fees altogether. It’s a so-called day trading since positions are typically closed by the end of the day. - Hedging: Implementing hedging strategies may mitigate overnight fees. This involves opening opposite positions in correlated pairs, thus potentially balancing the amounts paid and received. - Economic Calendar Awareness: Staying informed about major economic announcements and central bank decisions often helps traders anticipate changes in borrowing costs. - Broker Selection: Choosing the right broker is critical. Selecting a broker with favourable rates might significantly reduce trading fees, especially for those holding long-term positions. Practical Implications for Traders Understanding and managing these charges has direct implications for traders' strategies and overall performance. Key considerations include: - Carry Trading: A carry trade strategy entails borrowing in a currency with a lower interest rate and investing in another with a higher yield. Traders take advantage of the interest differential but must be mindful of potential fees. - Rollover Costs: Traders holding positions overnight need to account for rollover costs, which can either erode or enhance returns, depending on the direction of the trade and the prevailing swap rates. - Currency Exposure Management: Swap rates affect the overall cost of maintaining a position. Traders need to balance the potential advantages of holding a position against the charges incurred. The Bottom Line Mastering swap rates is a cornerstone of trade management. A thorough understanding may empower traders to navigate these costs and potentially improve their strategies. By carefully considering factors like interest differentials and broker policies, traders may manage their trades and overall performance more effectively. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
5
EURO - After movement up, price will drop to support lineHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 Recently price started to grow inside a rising channel, where it some time traded below the support area and soon bounced up. Price broke $1.1455 level and rose to the resistance line of the channel, after which it turned around and made correction movement. Next, price some time traded near $1.1455 level and then bounced and continued to move up inside the channel. In a short time Euro rose to $1.1700 level, which coincided with a support area, and some time trades between this level. Then the price broke this level and continued to move up, until it almost reached the resistance line of the channel and started to fall. Now, I think the Euro can rise a little and then continue to fall to $1.1610 support line of the channel, breaking $1.1700 level. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️ Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Short
by WalterMoon
14
EUR/USD Rally Pauses Near 1.18000 – Higher Targets in SightHi Everyone, Last week, price action delivered the 1.18000 level we had been calling for, and as expected, dynamic resistance around that area proved to be significant. Looking ahead, we anticipate EUR/USD will continue to test the 1.18000 level this week while holding above the 1.16680 support zone. A strong break above last week’s high could attract further buyers, paving the way for a move towards the 1.19290 and ultimately the 1.20000 levels. We’ll share further updates on the projected path for EUR/USD if price breaks above this level. The longer-term outlook remains bullish, with expectations for the rally to extend towards the 1.2000 level, provided the price holds above the key support at 1.10649. We will continue to update you throughout the week with how we’re managing our active ideas and positions. Thanks again for all the likes/boosts, comments and follows — we appreciate the support! All the best for a good end to the week. Trade safe. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
14
EURUSD - Macro Trend Shift Soon?Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈From a macro perspective, EURUSD has been bearish trading within the falling red channel. Medium-term, EURUSD has been in a correction phase trading within the rising channel in orange. Moreover, the green zone is a massive monthly resistance. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the upper red and orange trendlines and resistance. 📚 As per my trading style: As #EURUSD is around the red circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by TheSignalyst
13
How to Trade the Forex Market on Memorial & Independence days?Trading the foreign exchange (Forex) market on major U.S. holidays like Memorial Day (May 29th) and Independence Day (July 4th) presents a unique set of challenges and requires a strategic shift from typical trading days. While the global Forex market remains technically open 24/5, the closure of U.S. banks and financial institutions leads to significantly reduced liquidity and trading volume, altering the market landscape. Here’s a comprehensive guide on how to approach Forex trading on these holidays: Understanding the Market Conditions: The "Quiet" Danger The primary characteristic of Forex trading on U.S. holidays is a sharp drop in liquidity, especially in currency pairs involving the U.S. dollar (USD). With American traders and institutions away from their desks, the volume of transactions plummets. This "quiet" market environment can be deceptive and carries specific risks: Wider Spreads: With fewer market participants, the difference between the bid and ask prices for currency pairs tends to increase. This makes it more expensive to enter and exit trades, eating into potential profits. Increased Volatility and Spikes: Don't mistake low volume for a flat market. With a thin order book, even moderately sized orders can cause sharp, sudden price movements or "spikes." These moves can be unpredictable and may not follow typical technical patterns. Price Gaps and Slippage: The reduced liquidity can lead to price gaps, where the market jumps from one price to another without trading at the levels in between. This increases the risk of slippage, where your order is executed at a less favorable price than intended. Ineffectiveness of Some Strategies: Strategies that rely on high volume and momentum, such as breakout trading, are more likely to fail. A perceived breakout may lack the follow-through to become a sustained trend. Strategic Approaches for Trading on Memorial Day and July 4th Given the unique market conditions, traders should adopt a cautious and well-considered approach. Here are several strategies to consider: 1. The Prudent Approach: Step Aside For many traders, particularly novices, the most sensible strategy is to avoid trading altogether on these holidays. The increased risks and unpredictable market behavior can easily lead to unnecessary losses. Consider these days as an opportunity to study the markets, refine your overall trading plan, or simply take a break. 2. Trade with Reduced Size and Realistic Expectations If you do choose to trade, it is crucial to adjust your risk management: Lower Your Position Sizes: This is the most critical adjustment. Trading with smaller lots will mitigate the potential impact of sudden price spikes and wider spreads. Adjust Profit Targets and Stop-Losses: Be realistic about potential gains. The market may not have the momentum for large moves. Consider setting smaller profit targets. At the same time, be mindful that tighter stop-losses can be easily triggered by short-term volatility. 3. Focus on Non-USD Currency Pairs Since the holidays are U.S.-based, currency pairs that do not involve the U.S. dollar may be less affected, although a general decrease in global liquidity is still expected. Cross-currency pairs such as EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, or AUD/NZD might exhibit more "normal" behavior than majors like EUR/USD or USD/JPY. However, remain vigilant for lower-than-usual volume across the board. 4. Employ Range-Bound Strategies In low-liquidity environments, currencies often trade within a defined range. Strategies that capitalize on this behavior can be more effective than trend-following approaches. Look for well-established support and resistance levels and consider trading the bounces off these levels. 5. Be Wary of News from Other Regions While the U.S. market is quiet, significant economic data or geopolitical news from other regions (Europe, Asia) can still impact the market. With low liquidity, the reaction to such news can be exaggerated. Stay informed about the global economic calendar. A Day-by-Day Look Memorial Day (Last Monday of May): This is a major U.S. holiday, and its impact will be felt throughout the 24-hour trading period. Expect very thin liquidity during the Asian and European sessions, which will worsen significantly during what would typically be the busy New York session. Independence Day (July 4th): The impact of July 4th can sometimes extend beyond the day itself. Often, the trading day before (July 3rd) will also see reduced volume as traders close positions ahead of the holiday. On July 4th, expect market conditions similar to Memorial Day, with a significant drop in activity and the associated risks. In conclusion, while the allure of a 24-hour market is a key feature of Forex, wisdom lies in recognizing when not to trade with your usual strategy and size. Approaching U.S. holidays like Memorial Day and Independence Day with caution, a revised strategy, and a keen awareness of the risks is paramount for preserving your trading capital. For most, these are days best spent on the sidelines. Navid Jafarian
Education
by Navid_Jafarian
18
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USDOn the weekly chart, the price is approaching the upper boundary of the price channel, around the 1.1822 mark, from which a reversal of the entire trend may occur. A divergence with the Marlin oscillator is ready for immediate formation. If the price breaks above the channel line, it will most likely be a false false breakout, invalidating the channel. Only a weekly candle close above the specified level, accompanied by the oscillator rising above the previous peak, would significantly complicate the technical picture for a trend reversal. On the daily chart, a possible target in the event of a breakout above 1.1822 is the 1.1905 level - the resistance from 1.1822 is the 1.1905 level - the resistance from July - August 2021. On the four - hour chart, the Marlin oscillator does not support the price's bullish momentum. For now, the trend remains upward, but we are preparing for a possible shift. The Nonfarm Payrolls, Independence Day, and "Liberation Day" (new tariffs) are just around the corner. Donald Trump may have a surprise in store.
by CEO-PREMIUM-ANALYSIS
16
EURUSD I Technical & Fundamental Forecast Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** EURUSD Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
5