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EURUSD trade ideas

Eurusd M_Tf analysis Eurusd - MTF Analysis Test of support : @ 1.16642, a slight breakout occurred, which could be interpreted as a stop-loss hunt. Additionally, there was a trendline breakout. Expectation : A potential pullback to around 1.11873, which is a resistance level that coincides with a double top pattern. This could also serve as a retest of the previously broken trendline. Continuation : After the pullback and retest, the uptrend could potentially resume, with a target of approximately 1.218628.
Short
by Goodnessawe
Shorting Optimism: EUR/USD Rally vs RealityAfter the spike to 1.1640 driven by temporary ceasefire news and USD weakness, I’ve taken a short position on EUR/USD. The market priced in too much optimism too fast, and I see limited upside beyond this zone in the current macro landscape. I’m positioned for a controlled retracement back toward the 1.1460–1.1520 region. The play? Fade the overextension, follow structure, and manage from strength. Technicals: • The pair ran into a strong supply zone near 1.1640, which aligns with a previous liquidity sweep. • Momentum has slowed visibly on lower timeframes, with candles rejecting highs and wicks printing upper tails. • Daily and 4H SMAs are overstretched. The 20 SMA on H4 is accelerating upward, but RSI is near overbought and flattening. • My short entry was taken with a stop above 1.1745 and first target at 1.1540, second at 1.1500. • A potential retest of the 1.1660 zone could offer additional entries if invalidation remains intact. Fundamentals: • ECB vs Fed Divergence: The Fed holds firm on rates amid sticky inflation, while the ECB is under pressure to ease further due to weak growth. • EU Struggles: PMI data remains in contraction territory; HICP cooling to 1.7% YoY suggests little reason for tightening. • Political Instability: Germany and France both facing internal political crises — risk premia rising. • Ceasefire Priced In: EUR rally on Middle East headlines lacks depth — conflict paused, not resolved. • USD Resilience: Weak recent data aside, the USD remains a safe haven. Fed’s Powell reiterated that cuts aren’t imminent. ⚠️ Bias: Bearish as long as price trades below 1.1640. Watching how the market reacts to Fed testimony and ECB rhetoric this week. 🧠 Reminder: Don’t get emotional after vertical rallies. When everyone gets excited, I look for exhaustion. That’s where trades begin. Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Short
by AR33_
Dollar dives as Fed rate cut bets grow | FX ResearchThe US dollar faced renewed pressure at the start of July, with the dollar index dropping to its lowest since February of 2022, marking a 10.8% decline in the first half of 2025—the worst since 1973. Driven by geopolitical tensions and Trump trade policies, President Trump's ongoing criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Powell and the Fed's high interest rates, combined with Goldman Sachs's revised forecast of three rate cuts starting in September, signal a dovish shift that could further weaken the dollar. Eurodollar surged to its highest since September of 2021, though ECB Vice President De Guindos noted potential concerns if it exceeds 1.20, while the EU considers accepting a US 10% tariff in exchange for lower rates on key sectors. Emerging market ETFs saw $1.22 billion in inflows last week, reflecting de-dollarization trends amid easing Middle East tensions and Fed rate cut bets. Meanwhile, China’s Caixin PMI rose and Japan’s Q2 Tankan data beat expectations, supporting risk-on sentiment. Today’s focus is on US JOLTS job openings and manufacturing ISM data, alongside an ECB forum panel with key central bank leaders, which could influence market expectations. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
TiqGpt setup for todayMARKET NARRATIVE: The EUR/USD currency pair across multiple timeframes shows a consistent bullish momentum, indicating strong buying pressure. Starting from the 1D chart down to the 1m chart, there is a clear upward trend with higher highs and higher lows, suggesting institutional accumulation and a lack of significant sell-side pressure. The 1D and 4H charts display a series of green candles with minimal wicks, indicating that the market is in a strong bullish phase with little retracement. The 1H and lower timeframes show some consolidation, but the overall structure remains bullish, suggesting that institutions are still in control of the price action. INSTITUTIONAL THESIS: Institutions appear to be in an accumulation phase, consistently pushing the price higher. The lack of deep pullbacks and the formation of higher lows across timeframes suggest that there is ongoing demand at higher price levels. This is indicative of a liquidity grab above the current highs, where institutions may be targeting stop losses placed by retail traders who are positioned for a reversal. LEARNING POINT: The consistent bullish candles with minimal retracement across higher timeframes (1D, 4H) highlight a strong institutional buying phase, potentially leading to a liquidity sweep above recent highs. SIGNAL: WAIT SYMBOL: EUR/USD ENTRY PRICE: $1.18140 STOP LOSS: $1.17950 (below the recent minor consolidation on the 1H chart) TARGET PRICE: $1.18500 (just below the next psychological round number and potential liquidity pool) CONDITION: Buy limit order at $1.18140 after a minor retracement confirms continued buying interest. RATIONALE: Calculated risk/reward ratio of 1:1.9 (Risk=$0.00, Reward=$0.00) does not meet minimum 2:1 requirement. Waiting for better institutional setup with improved risk parameters. STRATEGIES USED: Institutional Accumulation, Liquidity Sweep Targeting URGENCY: MEDIUM TIMEFRAME: Short-term CONFIDENCE SCORE: 85% (based on the consistency of the bullish structure and lack of significant bearish counter-signals) RISK/REWARD RATIO: Risk=$0.00, Reward=$0.00, Ratio=1:1.9 (Below 2:1 minimum) Risk = $1.18140 - $1.17950 = $0.00190 Reward = $1.18500 - $1.18140 = $0.00360 Ratio = $0.00360 / $0.00190 = 1:1.89 Given that the risk/reward ratio is slightly below the required 2:1, the recommendation is to WAIT for a better entry point that could provide a higher reward relative to the risk or adjust the target price if market conditions change to improve the potential reward.
Long
by Mistermoriarty
Wedge Top Short ScalpIt looks like EURUSD is forming a Wedge Top extended from the 20 EMA, presenting a Short Scalp opportunity targeting the move back to the EMA in the next few days. Depending on how the current daily candle closes, this could be a good trade, so I'll be watching it today. The bull trend is strong on this one, so we should expect a quick resolution on this short trade, otherwise, we have to cut it off quickly. I don't wan to be against this trend. After the move back to the EMA, we will potentially have a Breakout Pullback opportunity to trade With Trend. So there's no need to rush.
Short
by lestercrest
EURUSD InsightHello to all our subscribers, and welcome! Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe. Key Points - U.S. President Trump commented on the mutual tariff suspension deadline of July 9, saying, “We can do whatever we want. We could extend it, or shorten it,” leaving the door open for an extension. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that trade negotiations could be finalized by September 1, adding that agreements were nearing completion with more than 10 of the 18 major trading partners. - President Trump noted that Canada is preparing to implement a digital tax, saying, “We will halt all trade discussions with Canada and within the next seven days inform them of the tariffs they must pay to operate in the U.S.” - The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for May met expectations at 2.3% year-over-year, while the Core PCE Price Index slightly exceeded expectations at 2.7% year-over-year. Key Economic Events This Week + June 30: U.K. Q1 GDP + July 1: Eurozone June CPI, Speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, U.S. JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) + July 2: U.S. June ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + July 3: U.S. June Nonfarm Payrolls, U.S. June Unemployment Rate EURUSD Chart Analysis The pair is showing a steep upward trend after breaking through a previous resistance level. Further upside potential appears to remain, with the next projected target area around the 1.18500–1.19000 range. However, there is currently a resistance zone in place, making it highly likely that a short-term dip may occur before the upward trend resumes.
Long
by shawntime_academy
EURUSD H4 I Bullish BounceBased on the H4 chart analysis, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 1.1631, a pullback support. Our take profit is set at 1.1745, a swing high resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fib extension. The stop loss is placed at 1.1582, an overlap support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by Tradu
EUR/USD BULL RAID: Quick Profit Heist Before the Drop!🏴‍☠️ EUR/USD "The Fiber" HEIST ALERT: Bullish Loot Before the Trap! 🚨💰 🌟 Greetings, Market Pirates & Profit Raiders! 🌟 Hola! Oi! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba! 🤑 🔥 Thief Trading Strategy Activated! 🔥 Our bullish heist on EUR/USD is LIVE—time to swipe the loot before the bears set their trap! 🎯💸 📈 Entry (Vault is OPEN!): Buy Limit Orders preferred (15M/30M swing levels). Alert up! Don’t miss the breakout. 🛑 Stop Loss (Escape Route): Nearest Swing Low (1.15200) on 30M TF. Adjust for your risk & lot size—no reckless robberies! 🎯 Target (Profit Hideout): 1.16400 Scalpers: Stick to LONG only—trail your SL to lock gold! Swing Traders: Ride the wave or split the haul. ⚡ Why This Heist? Bullish momentum + weak bears = perfect robbery conditions. Overbought? Yes. Risky? Absolutely. But thieves thrive in chaos! 📢 Pro Tip: Avoid news spikes (volatility = jail time for unprepared traders). Trailing SL = Your Getaway Car. 💥 BOOST THIS PLAN! Hit 👍, share 🔄, and let’s drain this market together! More heists coming—stay tuned! 🚀🐱‍👤 (Disclaimer: Trade smart. We’re thieves, not gambleers.)
Long
by Thief_Trader
EURUSD JUNE MONTH DELIVERY & NFP week ideasEURUSD JUNE MONTH DELIVERY *June closes with a expansion/accumulation monthly candle *Price wicked to the Weekly SIBI from sept 2021 *Price expanded to come just below the parent range .79 Premium *Note since May 13 price has been in a buy program with little retrace *Price is delivering to a Premium market taking key equal highs last week June 27 DELIVERY *Thursday into Friday price consolidates *Asia takes minor equal lows *2 London macro expands to the buy side *small retrace *6 macro starts the expansion cycle to send Price to take equal highs *10 silver bullet price reverses Londons delivery taking minor sell side *14:00 macro Price retraces to close rebalancing NY am delivery *Price closes just above the 50 in a premium NFP WEEK IDEAS Deep premium with little retrace last week-over bought *I suspect that we could see a retrace/reversal beginning of NFP week *could we see price come to the current range 50 level 1.16037 *Note the EV is in a discount could price retrace to that target for the week June 30 IDEAS *Parent bias is bull stick to it this week *Sundays delivery Price could retrace to minor equal highs at the .618 *Note Dealers range is already 32 pips-setting up for a potential larger expansion day *watch out for a possible consolidation cycle Monday-typical profile is expansion but we will see with no news *Sundays delivery could consolidation *Watch for reaction at .618 at minor equal highs *see if we swing for higher prices in Asia to London and lower in NY for Mondays suspected delivery-read what the chart prints this is just an idea-its not my gospel
by LeanLena
EURUSD Trade IdeaEURUSD is Bullish, on the weekly and daily time frame. With RSI near the overbought region on the daily timeframe, there is a great probability that the trend perform a pull back to the support level @1.1590 zone. If the trend break the CHocH at the 4Hr timeframe (body candle not wick), then will go short till 1.1600 level. If the news this coming week are in favor of the USD, we might see more drawdown till the Order block OB4H. Let's be patient and watch the market carefully Good Luck!
Short
by AN_88
EURUSD What Next? SELL! My dear friends, My technical analysis for EURUSD is below: The market is trading on 1.1716 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 1.1635 About Used Indicators: A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 27, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the course of this week's trading session, the Eurodollar has exhibited a strong rebound, successfully retesting and surpassing the Outer Currency Rally threshold of 1.163. Recent analyses suggest that the Euro is poised for further upward advancement, with the key target to reach the outer currency rally target of 1.177. Nonetheless, it is essential to recognize the possibility of a subsequent decline to the Mean Support level of 1.160 before a definitive upward movement.
by TradeSelecter
Euro Dollar, institutions are still bullish ($1.20 this summer?)There's one constant on the floating exchange market (Forex) this year, the US dollar is by far the weakest currency. It's the same scenario as the first months of Donald Trump's first term in office in 2017 repeating itself. The US President's stated aim is to give US exporters a competitive exchange rate. The Euro exchange rate is also being supported higher by a combination of fundamental factors, notably a relative catch-up of European assets against US stock market assets. It is the sum of these fundamentals that is enabling a well-constructed uptrend in the EUR/USD rate on FX this year 2025. A new monthly technical close was recorded on the evening of Monday June 30, and with technical resistances breached, it looks as if the euro-dollar rate is on course to reach $1.20 this summer. 1) A new monthly technical close (June technical close) continues to support the euro-dollar's annual uptrend The June technical close has been in place for the euro-dollar since the start of the week, providing further bullish chart confirmation. The euro-dollar price has confirmed that it has broken through a descending resistance line in place since the 2008 financial crisis. The price is converging with its momentum (represented here by the RSI and LMACD technical indicators) and the next natural technical target lies at $1.20. This is a technical target for the summer, bearing in mind that in the short term, a move back towards support at $1.15 and $1.17 remains possible. The chart below shows monthly Japanese candlesticks for the EUR/USD rate, with the Ichimoku, RSI and LMACD technical indicators 2) Institutional traders are still bullish on the euro-dollar rate, according to the CFTC's COT report What's most interesting about the overall analytical approach is the convergence between technical analysis signals and institutional positioning signals on the EUR/USD rate. According to the CFTC's COT (Commitment Of Traders) report, institutional traders (hedge funds + asset managers) became net buyers of the euro dollar at the start of 2025, and weekly updates of this positioning data show that their buying exposure is increasing as the EUR/USD price rises. This bullish convergence between chartism and institutional investor positioning lends credibility to a scenario that would see the euro dollar reach resistance at $1.20 this summer. This market view would be invalidated if support at $1.14 were broken. The two charts below show institutional traders' positions on Euro Dollar futures. Institutional traders were predominantly bullish at the start of the year, and month after month, they are increasing their buying exposure. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. 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by Swissquote
EURUSD tested the Resistance level 1.17460 👀 Possible scenario: On June 30, the euro (EUR) rose 0.15% to 1.17500, briefly reaching 1.17540—its highest level since September 2021—marking a 1.57% weekly gain, the strongest since May 19. The rally was driven by broad U.S. dollar weakness as markets adjusted to signs of slowing U.S. growth and subdued inflation, fueling expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, resilient European data supported the euro. On June 30, investors will closely monitor speeches from European Central Bank (ECB) officials for policy signals, with particular focus on President Christine Lagarde’s address at 5:00 p.m. UTC, which may provide key insights into the ECB’s monetary stance. ✅Support and Resistance Levels Now, the support level is located at 1.15900 Resistance level is located at 1.17460
by MaxOnMarkets