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EURUSD trade ideas

EURUSD Trading Idea EUR/USD dipped 0.2% on Tuesday, marking its third straight decline as it approaches the key 1.0500 level. The Euro’s recent bullish momentum is fading, with traders shifting to a cautious stance ahead of two major events: US CPI Data (Wednesday): A pivotal release ahead of the Fed's final 2024 meeting. Inflation is expected to tick up to 2.7% YoY (from 2.6%), with core CPI holding steady at 3.3%. Any signs of stalled progress could dash hopes for a third consecutive rate cut on December 18, fueling USD volatility. ECB Rate Decision (Thursday): The ECB is widely anticipated to deliver another quarter-point rate cut. Forecasts suggest the Main Refinancing Operations Rate will be trimmed to 3.15% (from 3.4%), and the Deposit Facility Rate is expected to drop to 3.0% (from 3.25%). EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Entry Opportunity with SMC and Fibonacci Using Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and Fibonacci retracement, the key zone between the 0.71 and 0.79 Fibonacci levels is shaping up as a critical area of interest. Following the creation of a fair value gap at the last high, the price is now testing the 50% Fibonacci level, setting the stage for a potential trade setup. Trade Setup: Entry Point: 1.05520 (aligned with the 0.75 Fibonacci level) Stop Loss: 1.05697 (just above the 0.79 Fibonacci level for added risk protection) Take Profit: 1.04990 (targeting below the fair value gap for optimal risk-to-reward) Risk/Reward Insights: This setup offers a Risk/Reward Ratio of 2.98. By risking 17.7 pips to gain 53 pips, you're maximizing reward relative to risk. Disclaimer: Trading carries significant risks, and it’s essential to practice strict risk management. Always trade with a clear plan, use stop-loss orders, and never risk more than you can afford to lose. This analysis is not financial advice—ensure you understand the risks before making any decisions. Follow for more trading ideas, strategies, and insights to level up your trading game!
Short
by InwardTrader
Holiday Trading Update: Christmas Eve Market Overview.As we approach Christmas Eve, it's important to note the shortened trading hours in the US. The stock market will close early at 1 PM, while the US bond market will close at 2 PM. Currency Market Overview The USD is showing a mixed performance against major currencies: EUR: +0.12% JPY: -0.04% GBP: -0.15% CHF: +0.18% CAD: +0.32% AUD: +0.27% NZD: +0.23% US Stock Market Snapshot US stocks are mixed following yesterday's rise: Dow: -25 points S&P: +6.05 points Nasdaq: +43 points US Debt Market Yields have shown marginal changes: 2-year: 4.353%, up 0.3 bps 5-year: 4.454%, up 0.9 bps 10-year: 4.606%, up 0.8 bps 30-year: 4.796%, up 1.3 bps Global Economic Updates Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) The RBA released its minutes, noting that its policy remains "sufficiently restrictive" to address inflation concerns. Despite gaining confidence that inflation has eased, risks persist. The board highlighted the importance of not prematurely easing policies and acknowledged that if economic growth strengthens, a prolonged delay in rate adjustments might be necessary. Updated forecasts for inflation and growth will be published in February. Japan's Finance Minister Finance Minister Kato emphasized the importance of ensuring currency stability to reflect economic fundamentals, particularly in light of recent sharp foreign exchange movements. He stated that the government would maintain close communication with overseas authorities on forex policies and was prepared to take decisive action against excessive volatility. European Central Bank (ECB) ECB's Vujčić reiterated that interest rate adjustments would continue as long as data align with projections, emphasizing the central bank's data-dependent approach. He refrained from specifying the exact level at which the ECB might halt rate hikes, underscoring the uncertainty tied to future economic conditions. US Economic Data The Richmond Fed index will be released at 10 AM ET, with expectations at -10 versus -14 last month. The US Treasury will auction 5-year notes at 1 PM. Yesterday, the Treasury auctioned 2-year notes with a 0.1 bp tail and a bid to cover ratio of 2.73X versus the 6-month average of 2.68X. Domestic buyers were very light at 6.7% versus the average of 19.5%, but international buyers showed up, taking 82.1%, well above the average of 68.1%. Technical Analysis EUR/USD The EUR/USD is trading around its 100-hour moving average (MA) at 1.0403, a key short-term barometer for buyers and sellers. A move above this level could signal a more bullish trend, while staying below it would indicate that sellers are in firm control. USD/JPY The USD/JPY remains in a narrow trading range, currently at 157.12. The rising 100-hour MA at 156.42 is quickly approaching, which will be an important level to watch. Key levels include the high from November at 156.739 and the low from yesterday at 155.94. GBP/USD The GBP/USD is stretching higher, moving closer to the falling 100-hour MA at 1.2563. Breaking above this level would target a swing area between 1.2596 and 1.26147, followed by the 200-hour MA at 1.26201. Season's Greetings from OakleyJM As we approach this festive season, I wanted to extend my warmest wishes to all my followers. May your Christmas be filled with joy, and may the New Year bring you prosperity and success in your trading endeavours.. Navigating the markets during the holidays can be challenging due to reduced liquidity, unexpected volatility, and market closures. Here are a few tips to help you prepare: Plan Ahead: Be aware of trading schedules and adjust your plans accordingly. Manage Risk: Use tighter stop-loss orders and reduce position sizes. Stay Informed: Keep up with the latest news and economic data releases. Use Limit Orders: Ensure you get the price you want despite wider bid-ask spreads. Focus on Liquidity: Trade assets with higher liquidity, such as major currency pairs or blue-chip stocks. Review Your Strategy: Analyse your performance and set goals for the upcoming year. Wishing you a Merry Christmas and a prosperous New Year! Warm regards, OakleyJM.
by OakleyJM
Quick technical idea on EURUSDWaiting for a breakout through one of my key areas to consider the next short-term directional move. FX_IDC:EURUSD EASYMARKETS:EURUSD Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
by easyMarkets
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 24, 2024 EURUSDIn the early Asian session on Tuesday, the EUR/USD exchange rate has been trading with small losses near 1.04000. This is due to expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates less frequently in 2025, which is providing some support to the dollar. Trading volumes are likely to be low ahead of the holiday trading week. The resumption of the Fed's 'raise rates longer' policy will be a key factor in the final trading days of the year, which could provide significant upside for the US Dollar (USD).Last week, the U.S. central bank cut the benchmark interest rate by another quarter point, as per the latest quarterly schedule. The Fed committee has revised its expectations for rate cuts in 2025 and beyond. The Fed now forecasts a rate cut of just 50 basis points (bps), or two rate cuts, compared to four quarter-point cuts.Across the pond, the euro (EUR) is weakening amid rising bets for further rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB).ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Monday that the Eurozone is "very close" to meeting the medium-term inflation target set by the ECB, according to the Financial Times on Monday. She also stated that the central bank would consider further cuts to interest rates if inflation continues to fall towards the 2 percent target, as curbing growth is no longer necessary. Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.04000, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EUR/USD weakens to near 1.0400 in a quiet trading sessionLet’s update the news and forecast the trend of the EUR/USD currency pair together! The EUR/USD currency pair is primarily influenced by fundamental factors related to the monetary policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB). In the U.S., expectations that the Fed will scale back interest rate cuts in 2025 have somewhat supported the U.S. Dollar (USD). In its recent meeting, the Fed lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points but simultaneously eased expectations for further rate cuts in the future. This suggests that the Fed may maintain a tighter monetary policy and continue to apply higher interest rates for a longer period, which supports the strong trend of the USD. On the other hand, in the Eurozone, the Euro (EUR) is under downward pressure due to expectations that the ECB will continue to reduce interest rates. ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the Eurozone is now "very close" to the bank's medium-term inflation target. However, if inflation continues to fall, the ECB may need to further cut interest rates to stimulate growth, which would exert downward pressure on the Euro. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD is currently trading around the 1.0400 level, a key support level to watch. If this level is breached, the pair is likely to continue its downward trend, with the next support around the 1.0300 area. Moreover, with trading volumes potentially low ahead of the holiday season, price movements may not be as strong. However, the fundamental factors, particularly the monetary policies of the Fed and ECB, will continue to be the dominant drivers shaping the long-term trend of this currency pair.
by Alisa_Rokosz
EUR/USD: Holding Above Support Amidst DowntrendChart Analysis: The EUR/USD pair has been in a sustained downtrend, but recent price action suggests stabilization near a key support zone at 1.0340. 1️⃣ Support Level: The horizontal level at 1.0340 has held firm, providing a key area of interest as price consolidates. A break below could lead to further downside, while a bounce may signal short-term recovery. 2️⃣ Moving Averages: 50-SMA (blue): Positioned at 1.0459, acting as a dynamic resistance for price attempts to move higher. 200-SMA (red): Located at 1.0539, reflecting the broader bearish trend and providing additional resistance above. 3️⃣ Momentum Indicators: RSI: At 44.70, showing bearish bias but holding above oversold territory, indicating a potential consolidation phase. MACD: Bearish momentum remains intact but shows signs of flattening, suggesting waning downside pressure. What to Watch: A decisive break below 1.0340 could signal a continuation of the downtrend, targeting lower levels. If the support holds, the pair may test the 50-SMA resistance near 1.0459. The EUR/USD remains bearish overall, but the current consolidation near key support could lead to a short-term directional move. -MW
by FOREXcom
EURUSD analysis week 51🌐Fundamental Analysis The outlook for the US dollar remains firm after the Fed's rate cut. ECB's Patsalides postponed the prospect of a larger rate cut and advocated gradual policy easing. The US dollar (USD) maintained its strength on Thursday after outperforming its hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) dot-matrix rivals on Wednesday. Upbeat macroeconomic data from the US continued to support the currency. However, EUR/USD maintained its position. 🕯Technical Analysis EURUSD is recovering to the resistance level of 1.045. This is the confluence of EMA and strong selling pressure to break the old resistance. And now this is the immediate resistance level that the pair needs to overcome if it wants to resume the uptrend. The main resistance for next week is seen around 1.053 as a break of this zone confirms the uptrend. On the other side, after breaking last week's bottom at 1.034, the area that will help EURUSD price to survive a long slide is the support zone at 1.029. 📈📉Trading Signals BUY EURUSD 1.029-1.027 Stoploss 1.025 SELL EURUSD 1.052-1.054 Stoploss 1.056
by TVS-Trader