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EURUSD trade ideas

EURUSD 12 Feb 2025 W7 - Intraday Analysis - CPI, Powell & TariffThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 12 Feb 2025 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment In my Weekly Analysis, tariffs continue to dominate the narrative, yet market reactions have become the primary focus. The critical question is whether investors have grown accustomed to tariff-related news—leading to muted responses—or if the persistent tariff war rhetoric will trigger renewed market anxiety. Notably, Powell’s testimony yesterday failed to offer any fresh insights; however, there is hope that today’s session might shed some light on future policy directions. Additionally, the USD’s weakness observed at the close of trading yesterday appears to have been driven more by reports of a territorial swap in Ukraine’s peace deal—and possibly an initial leak of the CPI data—rather than by Powell’s remarks. Today’s CPI report is expected to be a significant driver of market volatility. Investors are eagerly anticipating softer CPI numbers, which could encourage the Fed to consider not only an earlier rate cut but potentially two cuts this year, contrasting with the current market consensus of just one. While tariffs are clearly contributing to upward inflationary pressures and prompting a cautious stance from the Fed, the immediate volatility is likely to stem from the CPI data. The market will be closely watching whether the tariffs are being employed as a negotiating tactic—or if they signal an intentional escalation towards a trade war. Markets face a tug-of-war between CPI-driven rate hopes and tariff-induced risks. While CPI may spark a tactical rally if soft, tariffs remain the swing factor – any escalation (e.g., new retaliatory measures) would overshadow short-term data. Position for choppy trading until Trump’s tariff strategy crystallizes. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios: Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 🔹The reaction from the recent 4H Demand Zone formed a Bullish CHoCH and a fresh Demand zone where price can pullback to after tapping the recent 4H Supply Zone. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to Bearish to target the Weak INT Low as long LTFs turning Bearish. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹At Swing Premium 2️⃣ 🔹With yesterday PA, price failed to continue Bearish and created a Bullish i-BOS. 🔹Price reached the 4H supply as anticipated and mitigated the 15m Supply within the 4H to maybe initiate the Bullish INT Structure pullback phase and if the swing is going to continue Bearish there is a high probability to target the Strong INT Low. 🔹The current Bullish i-BOS aligns with the 4H Swing where we have also a high probability that we can target the 15m Strong Swing High. 🔹With the inconsistency of Time frames alignments, a clear direction is difficult to identify which requires a sit back and watch till we have a clear direction. 3️⃣ 🔹From an intraday perspective, expectations are set to Bearish to facilitate the Bullish INT Structure pullback. 🔹Today’s CPI, Powell and Tariffs talks will have high volatility that could direct me tomorrow or next week for a clearer direction move.
by Amr-Sadek
2
Tarrifs or no Tarrifs As we are getting closer to February 1 which is the new deadline of the tariffs to Mexico and Canada(25%) everyone is, nervous whether he has a long or short position. Since we own you want to tweet or just a single word from Trump, and your position can get liquidated basically. As expected a Fed maintained the interest rate I do believe it's due to the fact that they also accounting for impact of the tariffs. But in case of the Tariff , will be withhold, most likely the Euro will skyrocket 1,5-2% and I wouldn't be surprised if it's would happen right after they open on the next week Sunday. tomorrow the European Central Bank will make his decisions about the interest rates most likely they will cut another 25 basis point, but in the current price it's already baked in, so the next movers will be the tariffs. GL
Short
by ElGatoTrade
3
EUR/USD 4H | Elliott Wave Triangle Formation & Potential Wave 5"This idea explores an Elliott Wave setup for EUR/USD on the 4H timeframe. The pair is forming a contracting triangle, which is likely completing Wave 4 of the impulsive wave sequence. Key levels to watch: Invalidation level (upside): 1.06776 Invalidation level (downside): 1.03492 If the price holds within the triangle and breaks downward, Wave 5 could target the lower support zone near 1.00169. However, a breakout above 1.06776 could invalidate this bearish scenario. This setup highlights the importance of patience and discipline, waiting for confirmation before entering trades. Monitor key levels closely and adjust your strategy accordingly.
by Greenfireforex
JOLTS OPENING 02/02/2025After some us survived the last few trading days we just heading to another crucial event. JOLTS opening - A survey done by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to help measure job vacancies. It collects data from employers about their businesses' employment, job openings, recruitment, hires and separations. JOLTS defines Job Openings as all positions that are open (not filled) on the last business day of the month. A job is "open" only if it meets all three of the following conditions: 1. A specific position exists and there is work available for that position. 2. The job could start within 30 days, whether or not the establishment finds a suitable candidate during that time. 3. There is active recruiting for workers from outside the establishment location that has the opening. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD. Expectations - Minimal growth - but the trend pointing to that empoloyers are expanding their workforce. Under 1.0355 its recomended to short, but better to wait for data, and let the market calm down and clear the gap and close above it. we can see easily a 3rd rejection on the gap glosing which is not a good sign. More over Trump did played out hes tarrifs cards with EU. - thus its can shake the market. GL.
Long
by ElGatoTrade
EURUSD Trading Opportunity! BUY! My dear subscribers, This is my opinion on the EURUSD next move: The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.0317 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 1.0393 My Stop Loss - 1.0274 About Used Indicators: On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
Elliott Wave Analysis for EUR/USD - Bullish OutlookPEPPERSTONE:EURUSD This analysis is based on the application of Elliott Wave principles for the EUR/USD market on a weekly timeframe. 💡 Wave Identification: Corrective Cycle (ABC): After a peak marked by wave B, the market completed a 5-wave downward structure (waves 1 to 5), forming wave C, signaling a possible end of the correction. Potential Reversal Zone (2/B): The current point is a strategic level where a bullish rebound is anticipated. 📊 Projection: A bullish impulse is expected from point C. The initial target lies in the 1.1140 - 1.1217 zone, corresponding to key resistance levels and Fibonacci projections. 🧠 Conclusion: A breakout above 1.0440 could confirm a significant bullish impulse, suggesting buyers are regaining control. ⚠️ Disclaimer : This analysis is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before investing.
Long
by Trwin
This chart represents a EUR/USD (Euro/US Dollar) trading setup .Key Elements of the Chart: 1. Current Price: EUR/USD is trading at 1.04317 at the time of the screenshot. 2. Resistance Level: A horizontal black line around 1.04429 indicates a key resistance zone. 3. Trade Setup: Entry Zone: Around 1.04335. Stop-Loss (Red Zone, Above Entry): 1.04603 (if the price reaches this level, the trade will be closed with a loss). Take-Profit Levels (Red Lines Below Entry): First target: 1.03730. Second target: 1.03507 - 1.03497 (final take-profit zone). Possible Trading Strategy: This looks like a short (sell) setup, meaning the trader expects EUR/USD to reverse downward from the resistance zone. If the price goes up and hits 1.04603, the stop-loss is triggered, and the trade closes at a loss. If the price drops to 1.03730 or lower, the trade reaches the take-profit levels and secures a profit. Market Context: There was a strong bullish move before this setup, meaning the price has been rising. The trader might be anticipating a pullback or trend reversal from resistance. Would you like a suggestion for your next trade based on this setup?
Short
by DavidHills110
EURUSD - ANALYSIS👀 Observation: Hello, everyone! I hope you're all doing well. Let me share my personal view on EUR/USD with you. Based on the EUR/USD chart, I expect the price to push upward toward the level of 1.03493. After reaching this level, I anticipate it to resume its downward movement. My first target for the drop is 1.01978, followed by the second target at 1.00938. However, if EUR/USD breaks above the 1.04340 level in the 1-hour timeframe, I expect further upward movement toward 1.05673. 📉 Expectation: Bullish Scenario: Break above 1.04340 targeting 1.05673. Bearish Scenario: Drop after hitting 1.03493, targeting 1.01978 and then 1.00938. 💡 Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: 1.03493, 1.04340, 1.05673 Support: 1.01978, 1.00938 💬 What’s your outlook on EUR/USD? Share your thoughts in the comments below! Trade safe
Short
by PouyanTradeFX
2