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#AN005 What Changes After USA-China, ECB and Oil Hello, I'm Andrea Russo, forex trader and creator of the SwipeUP Elite FX Method, which analyzes the market as a Hedge Found. Today I want to talk to you about the latest crucial economic news of the week that will influence the currency markets. Let's start with the important trade meeting between the United States and China that took place in London. The negotiations, mainly focused on exports and rare earth metals, showed positive signs with optimistic statements from both sides. This event immediately brought an improvement in global sentiment, strengthening trade-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar (AUD) and the New Zealand dollar (NZD), while the US dollar recorded a slight decline. The World Bank, on the other hand, tagged its 2025 global growth forecast from 2.8% to 2.3%. This downgrade reflects significant concerns for the United States, China and Europe, due to trade uncertainties and reduced investments. This scenario, however, could favor some emerging currencies, such as the Brazilian real (BRL) and the Mexican peso (MXN), which benefit from less restrictive monetary policies and a reduction in pressure on the US dollar. Looking at Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to further reduce rates, bringing them to 2%, with the possibility of further decreases of up to -0.25% by the autumn. This expansionary policy is dictated by the need to support a stagnant economy and contain inflation. Inevitably, this will put pressure on the euro (EUR), which is expected to weaken against major currencies, especially the dollar. In the United States, on the other hand, all eyes are on the May CPI due on June 11. Inflation is expected to be 2.5%, and the publication of data that is above or below expectations could generate strong volatility on the dollar. A higher CPI would strengthen the dollar, reducing the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, while a lower reading could further weaken the greenback. Finally, oil has also rallied, with WTI up 6% and Brent up 4%. This increase has been driven by a more favorable geopolitical context and the reduction of trade tensions. The effect on currency markets is direct, favoring commodity-related currencies, such as the Canadian dollar (CAD) and the Norwegian krone (NOK), while currencies such as the euro (EUR) and the Japanese yen (JPY), of oil-importing countries, could find themselves in difficulty. In summary, the current week is proving to be crucial for Forex: declining trade tensions are supporting trade-related currencies, the ECB's accommodative monetary policy is weakening the euro, while US economic data will drive sentiment on the dollar. To stay updated on future developments, continue to follow my analyses and articles here on TradingView.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
EURUSD is moving within the 1.13640 - 1.14550 range👀Possible scenario: The euro (EUR) rose 0.22% against the U.S. dollar on June 9, supported by optimism over diplomatic progress between Washington and Beijing on rare-earth minerals and advanced tech. U.S. officials called the talks fruitful, easing global economic concerns. The ECB’s recent 25-basis-point rate cut lowered borrowing costs to their lowest since November 2022, but hints that easing may end soon kept the euro steady. With a quiet macro calendar on June 10, traders will watch ECB speeches for clues on future policy. ✅Support and Resistance Levels Now, the support level is located at 1.13640 Resistance level is located at 1.14550
by MaxOnMarkets
EURUSD Asia Trade Executed June 10EURUSD Trade Executed June 10 Parent range Premium Previous session Premium Suspected Sell off Asia/London Asia Framework *Price took equal lows liquidity in NY AM session *Retraced in NY PM to a session premium *Consolidated to close NY in a premium Idea for June 10 *Asia opens to take minor buy side into a FVG- recognizing Asia hunts for minor liquidity before its expansion and with bias identified I am gaining confidence to be patient like today to wait for Price to align to my ideas *Price bodies tap the CE of the FVG-tippings its hand it will roll over *Because I was impatient yesterday I waited for 20:00 delivery to play out before reacting *20:45 small consolidation/minor retracement *21:05 swing high to CE of 20:35 candle and first presented FVG *21:06 entry *Targets speculated that Price was in a session premium with the anticipation to come down to the 50 level-1.14125 level and the FVG targets noted *21:50 Exit trade second target hit-I actually set the target and got stopped out! *Employed the Standard Deviation tool that aligned with the 1.14000 price I exited on-pretty cool! Greed kept me closing the trade and being very happy even though my sentiment was price could reach for equal lows which it did. For reference I use DXY to frame this trade speculating DXY would run to its buy stops and it did! Great delivery. Great analysis. So happy with this Asia trade.
by LeanLena
DeGRAM | EURUSD held the support📊 Technical Analysis ● Euro holds above 1.137 – 1.140, where the channel’s mid-line meets the old wedge roof, printing a fresh higher-low (green arrow). ● Price is compressing inside a pennant capped at 1.142; flag height projects to 1.156 – 1.160 at the rising-channel median once 1.142 gives way. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● After the ECB’s “one-and-pause” cut, sticky EZ core CPI (2.9 % y/y) and softer US payrolls narrowed the 2-yr rate gap, keeping flows tilted toward the euro. ✨ Summary Buy 1.137–1.141; pennant breakout >1.142 targets 1.156 → 1.160. Long bias void on an H4 close below 1.126. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
Long
by DeGRAM
1
EURUSD INTRADAY Bullish continuation pattern developing Trend Overview: EUR/USD continues to exhibit a bullish price structure, supported by a rising trendline and higher lows. Recent intraday action reflects a corrective pullback, suggesting a temporary pause within the broader uptrend. Key Technical Levels: Support: 1.1300 (primary), followed by 1.1235 and 1.1180 Resistance: 1.1430 (initial), then 1.1470 and 1.1500 Technical Outlook: A pullback toward 1.1300, which coincides with the previous consolidation zone, may present a bullish continuation setup. A confirmed bounce from this level could open the path toward 1.1430, with 1.1470 and 1.1500 as potential longer-term targets. However, a daily close below 1.1300 would indicate a breakdown of near-term bullish momentum. This scenario would increase the likelihood of a deeper correction toward 1.1235, and possibly 1.1180. Conclusion: The outlook for EUR/USD remains constructively bullish, contingent on the 1.1300 support holding. A bounce from this level would reinforce the uptrend. Conversely, a decisive break below 1.1300 would shift the short-term bias to bearish, suggesting further downside toward the 1.1200 area. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day Ahead Market Watch – Tuesday, June 10 (Technical Focus) Key Data Releases (Potential Volatility Triggers): US NFIB Small Business Optimism (May) – Watch for shifts in sentiment that could influence the USD and S&P 500 direction. 3-Year Note Auction – Yields could impact Treasury curve dynamics; monitor for demand strength or weakness. UK Average Weekly Earnings (Apr) Unemployment Rate (Apr) Jobless Claims Change (May) These labor data points are pivotal for GBP crosses. Stronger wage data may support GBP/USD, especially near key resistance around 1.2800. Japan M2 & M3 Money Supply (May) Machine Tool Orders (May) Typically low volatility, but may offer insights for JPY if surprise deviation occurs. Italy Industrial Production (Apr) – Weakness could pressure FTSE MIB if it breaks below short-term support near 34,000. Sweden GDP Indicator (Apr) – May impact SEK, especially against EUR if growth deviates significantly. Norway & Denmark CPI (May) – Inflation data could move NOK and DKK, especially if it challenges central bank guidance. Central Bank Speakers (Volatility Risk): ECB: Villeroy, Holzmann, Rehn Hawkish or dovish signals may drive short-term EUR/USD moves; key resistance to watch: 1.0900. Watch German bund yields for confirmation. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 10, 2025 EURUSDAn Event to pay attention today: 13:00 EET. USD - NFIB Small Business Optimism Index EURUSD: The EUR/USD pair is struggling to capitalise on the previous day's gains and is attracting new sellers around 1.1435 during Tuesday's Asian session. The intraday decline is driven by solid demand for the US dollar (USD) and has pushed spot prices below 1.1400 in the last hour. Friday's US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, which showed higher-than-expected data, dampened hopes for an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. This, along with optimism about the resumption of trade talks between the US and China, is prompting traders to ease their bearish bets on the US dollar, which is proving to be a key factor putting pressure on the EUR/USD pair. However, as negotiations continued into a second day in London, traders may refrain from aggressive directional bets. In addition, traders still see a rate cut by the US central bank in September as more likely. This, along with concerns about the financial health of the US government, may limit further strengthening of the US dollar and provide support for the EUR/USD pair. In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) hinted at the end of its rate-cutting cycle at its meeting last week. This could further benefit the single currency and help limit losses for the currency pair. Traders may also refrain from aggressive betting ahead of this week's US inflation data release. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1390, SL 1.1410, TP 1.1300
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Will the U.S. Dollar Bear go out to lunch and take a break?In this video I go over the case for the U.S. Dollar bear taking a break and price action getting a pullback across the EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY. I took a 42% profit on EUR/USD longs and currently keeping an eye on a short opportunity if weakness starts to creep in on the price action. Long term, I remain U.S. Dollar bearish across the board however pullbacks are always expected during a macro price move. If we trade higher, so be it and I will evaluate what the next position will be. As always, Good Luck & Trade Safe.
by InternalTraderNYC
Euro's bullish momentum signals upside potential beyond $1.145 Current Price: $1.14247 Direction: LONG Targets: - T1 = $1.14500 - T2 = $1.15000 Stop Levels: - S1 = $1.14000 - S2 = $1.13700 **Wisdom of Professional Traders:** This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that aggregated market perspectives from experienced professionals often outperform individual forecasts, reducing cognitive biases and highlighting consensus opportunities in Euro. **Key Insights:** Euro's price momentum has shown steady consolidation above the $1.14000 mark, signaling strong underlying demand. Technical indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggest a gradual shift toward overbought territory, which could trigger bullish sentiment. Furthermore, the Euro's performance is reinforced by consistent volume levels, highlighting market participants' confidence in its upward movement. The recent shift in central bank monetary policy expectations toward stability is fostering optimism among traders. Region-specific economic data points also support the currency. Improved manufacturing PMI data from core European economies, coupled with steady inflation trends, are providing a solid foundation for the Euro's bullish trajectory. Traders are closely watching these macroeconomic indicators to refine their strategies in line with prevailing market dynamics. **Recent Performance:** Over the past week, the Euro has climbed steadily from $1.13500, consistently testing and holding resistance levels, which now act as support points. This steady rise is indicative of strong technical fundamentals, supported by resilient demand across trading zones. The transition to the current price of $1.14247 reiterates market conviction in the Euro's potential for further gains. **Expert Analysis:** Technical analysts have emphasized moving averages, with the 50-day and 200-day SMAs signaling alignment for sustained bullish movement. With a current price above the 200-day SMA, momentum indicators and Fibonacci retracement levels pinpoint the next potential resistance zones around $1.14500. Additionally, pattern analysis reveals an ascending triangle formation, which is a common precursor to breakout scenarios. Expert macroeconomic outlook is reinforcing this bullish sentiment, citing gradual easing of geopolitical tensions and improved trade relations among Eurozone economies. Bullish divergence in MACD charts further supports the likelihood of an extended rally as technical setups align with the broader economic narrative. **News Impact:** The recent European Central Bank announcement indicates a steady rate environment, which has historically led to increased currency valuation amidst reduced speculation. Meanwhile, sustained demand from corporate trade flows driven by robust economic indicators fortifies the market outlook. Strength in global equities and a weaker U.S. Dollar further provide tailwinds to the Euro. **Trading Recommendation:** Market alignment with technical and macroeconomic conditions creates an optimal scenario for long positions on the Euro. Traders should watch for a breakout past the $1.14500 level, which could quickly propel prices toward $1.15000. Coupled with conservative stop placement below prior support levels, this trade setup offers a compelling risk-reward opportunity. Initiating a bullish stance on Euro provides potential gains supported by technical convergence and positive sentiment within the Eurozone economic landscape.
Long
by CrowdWisdomTrading
The euro is in high - level oscillation.The euro has rebounded slightly against the US dollar, trading around 1.143 during the European session, recovering some of the losses from last week's decline from around 1.1500. Fundamentally, the US dollar weakened after taking profits from the strong non - farm payrolls data last Friday, while the hawkish remarks by European Central Bank Governing Council member Kazimir provided support for the euro. From the perspective of market structure, the short - term market sentiment is slightly bullish. The key resistance levels are concentrated in the 1.1494 - 1.1500 area. If this platform is broken through and held, it may form a new bullish breakout point. Humans need to breathe, and perfect trading is like breathing—maintaining flexibility without needing to trade every market swing. The secret to profitable trading lies in implementing simple rules: repeating simple tasks consistently and enforcing them strictly over the long term.
Short
by Ashbur
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by jonathanpiccirillo199842944
EURUSD June 9 Trade executed and stopped out HINDSIGHT STUDYEURUSD June 9 Trade executed and stopped out Parent bias bull NARRATIVE FOR MONDAYS DELIVERY FRIDAY-Retrace Delivery With previous day delivery taking buy side liquidity an obvious set up for a sell off for Asia into London *Classic set up for a sell off day *Price in a discount coming into Asia *higher prices expected for Monday with a buy bias *Price took sell side in NY session creating nesting equal lows *anticipated for price to head to the 50 or potentially the noted equal highs WHAT WENT WRONG *too eager at Asia open when price expanded and bought right at the opening *hindsight PATIENCE could have been employed to see if price wanted to come back down to engage the nesting equal lows and inefficient delivered price, from the dealers range *cross reference DXY it gapped lower and came back to clear that before it rally for lows I noted in posted journal yesterday-I anticipated for DXY to have a sell off day *why I did not buy at 21:00 when my set up formed-fear of being wrong and just be impulsive upon Asia opening clouding my judgement *learning patience, learning no fear, its only a demo account so even if your wrong again you can study why *1 trade rule a day and trying to keep to it *your analysis was correct and need to be committed to your idea and not let a bad entry hold back WHAT CAN I DO DIFFERENT *apply patience upon the opening of Asia *study the minor liquidity taken to wait for your set up to form before reacting *study the dealers range delivery with higher sense of scrutiny *do you really want to buy where you bought-NO its not a high odds probability trade with poor candle formation TAKE AWAYS I have been studying this Asia expansion trade and am really liking the results when I am patient to wait for it to set up Mondays are typically my best days and I was too excited after three days of rest Learn to sit back and wait for price to form and let it come to you-such a hard thing to do when all you want to do is be trading
by LeanLena
#004 Forex: Recovery Week and Macro Expectations The week just ended marked a tactical turning point in global financial markets. After the correction in April and the instability in May, investors seem to be starting to bet on a return to stability, but caution remains a must. Let's look in detail at the main events and scenarios that marked this week in the stock markets and in the world of forex. 📈 Global stock markets: technical rebound or inversion? In the United States, the Nasdaq was the protagonist of a recovery supported by tech and AI stocks. After weeks of selling, some key sectors such as semiconductors and gold led the recovery. In Asia, Hong Kong (+0.9%) and emerging markets showed strength, also driven by the rebound in the MSCI EM index. In Europe, stock markets benefited from a more relaxed climate and an ECB that is gradually becoming more accommodating. 💱 Forex: Dollar Weak, Euro Consolidating The US dollar has been struggling all week, weighed down by dovish macro data expectations and rising geopolitical tensions. EUR/USD has shown signs of consolidating above 1.08, with room for further bullish extensions if dollar sentiment deteriorates further. Also of note is the Russian Central Bank’s rate cut, which had little effect on EM currencies but signals a global return to looser monetary policies. 📆 Busy Macro Week: Key Data Coming Soon Traders are eagerly awaiting US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), CPI and the Fed meeting on June 12. These events will be key to the future direction of US monetary policy. In parallel, China’s CPI and PPI will complete a highly relevant macro picture for FX trading. 🌍 Geopolitics and volatility: risk remains high Trade instability, with new statements from Trump, has caused some pressure on Asian stock markets. The "triple witching day" (simultaneous expiration of options and derivatives) at the end of June is approaching, which could amplify volatility especially in US markets. 📌 In summary: what to watch now Stocks: is the rebound technical or the start of a new trend? The answer will depend on US data and the Fed's response. Forex: watch out for the dollar's structural weakness, with the euro likely to remain the leading currency of the month. Volatility: likely spikes around the technical expirations of mid/late June. Outlook: mixed context, with tactical opportunities but still high risk. 📍 Conclusion Markets are looking for a balance, but it is a fragile balance. Incoming macro data and global political tensions will act as catalysts in the next two weeks. For those trading stocks or forex, it’s time to stay informed, flexible and disciplined.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP