GpPa Model / EUR/USD Dynamic Limit Order Long EntryGpPa Analysis / Entry Justification under the GpPa Model
*The Analysis is the same as the conservative and dynamic entry*
The main entry is conservative, so, the analysis remains beside this part:
A long entry can be considered at the strong minimum, but I'll not go too far with the SL or TP. It can be used as a hedge if you're holding a position that performs well as the US Dollar does (like Magnificent 7 or other shorts in x/USD currency). Beside that, I'll consider this position the riskier of all.
1. Liquidity
a. Liquidity Related to Structure
The price’s liquidity is distributed within a relatively narrow range, marked by several highs and lows and a false manipulative bias (indicated as internal liquidity in a lighter color). This liquidity distribution suggests a long-term and mid-term bearish trend (notably from the M3 and M1 timeframes backward) that has weakened in the short term, evolving into a chaotic structure.
b. Liquidity Related to Directionality
The diagonal liquidity—responsible for driving the price to manipulate highs and lows—is more pronounced at the highs. However, the directional bias appears to favor mitigating the lows.
c. Decision Regarding Liquidity
Recent price action indicates the development of a retracement. This retracement could either continue the bearish trend or lead to a range-bound structure due to an exhausted bearish trend.
2. Trajectory / Direction (Structure)
a. Coefficient of Trajectory, Direction, and Validation
(-41.20%; -58.80%) 19.10%
These coefficients confirm the signals derived from the liquidity analysis. While the price shows a clear long-term and mid-term bearish trend, the opposing validation factor may indicate an exhaustion of the retracement—or even of the trend itself—thus reinforcing the possibility of a range-bound market.
3. Entries
a. Conservative Entry
The VWAP is placed alongside an additional FRVP at the major fractal preceding the M1 structure to define a conservative entry. Once positioned, this setup confirms the bearish character and the established range, allowing the identification of a high-probability entry at the manipulated high. This entry is validated by:
- Long-term volume
- A high-probability VWAP zone for shorts within the range
- A long-term order block (M1)
i. Coefficients of the Conservative Entry
- Fractal Quality Coefficient: 50.00%
- Entry Quality Coefficient: -19.82%
- Entry Probability: -50.00%
- Stop Loss Probability: -100.00%
- Take Profit Probability: -50.00%
The entry is highly likely to be mitigated over the long term, with the conservative analysis expiring on March 25, 2025. Although the quality is decent, it is not optimal since the evaluation was based solely on the VWAP.
The Stop Loss is set at 2 ATR from the last manipulated high (calculated from the median of the data) and is strongly protected by volume, two highs, two order blocks, and the VWAP level. This setup reflects an extremely optimistic scenario for the euro, which does not fully align with recent fundamental news—suggesting that a significant move would be necessary to breach this level.
The Take Profit should be seen not as a final objective but rather as a target for partial profit-taking and for moving the stop to breakeven once the objective is reached.
4. Other Comments
- The price is currently in a zone that attracts little interest from swing traders. As of February 10, 2025, the price is in a well-developed retracement, which discourages taking shorts lightly.
- A long trade might be considered at the manipulated minimum below the structure; however, given the euro’s recent fundamentals and the prevailing long-term and mid-term bearish trend, such a trade should only be executed with carefully adjusted Stop Loss and Take Profit levels.
Do you like my analysis?
Follow me on social media: thewayofrichie
Let's trade,
Richie
