EURUSD trade ideas
EUR/USD – Bullish Breakout Setting Up? | H1 Analysis by WaverVan🔍 Technical Outlook
The Euro is showing signs of bullish continuation following a clean reclaim of the equilibrium zone (1.13226), backed by strong volume and impulsive structure. We’ve now entered a high-probability decision zone just beneath a Premium Supply Block (1.1375–1.1400).
📌 Key Technical Confluences
🔺 Fair Value Gap (FVG) Filled with price pushing into premium
📉 Previous Break of Structure (BoS) followed by a Change of Character (CHoCH) confirms bullish intent
🌀 Fib Cluster (0.786 - 1.0) rejection turned into support
📈 Volume Surge on bullish engulfing confirms strong interest at 1.1260–1.1320 (Discount Zone)
🧠 Smart Money likely targeting Liquidity above Weak High @ 1.14329
📐 Target Zones
🎯 Short-Term TP1: 1.14329 (Liquidity above weak high)
🎯 TP2: 1.15009 (1.618 Fib Extension)
🛑 Invalidation: Break below 1.13226 equilibrium structure
🧮 Probabilities
📊 Bullish Continuation: ~68% based on confluences and volume thrust
📉 Rejection at Premium Zone (1.1400–1.1430): ~32% if DXY strengthens or macro reverses
🌐 Macro Context
ECB remains relatively dovish while USD shows temporary weakness
Market pricing mild Fed easing later in the year, creating tailwinds for EUR
Watch Friday's NFP for volatility risk
📢 Trader Guidance
⚠️ If price retests 1.1355–1.1370 and holds, aggressive longs targeting 1.1432+ are justified.
📉 Protect against reversal near 1.1400–1.1430 zone.
📆 Swing traders: Consider trailing stop once 1.14329 is tagged.
📍Posted by WaverVanir International LLC
Pushing financial insight through technical intelligence
#EURUSD #Forex #SmartMoney #SMC #Fibonacci #VolumeProfile #WaverVanir #TradingStrategy #LiquidityZones #Breakout
EURUSD is moving within the 1.12265 - 1.14380 range👀 Possible scenario:
The euro (EUR) rose 0.29% on June 2 as renewed trade tensions, sparked by Trump’s plan to double steel and aluminum tariffs from June 4, weighed on market sentiment. Beijing denied Trump's claims of a trade agreement breach, dimming hopes for near-term diplomacy.
Markets now eye a possible Trump-Xi meeting and upcoming U.S. economic data, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 2:00 p.m. UTC and Friday’s jobs report. These releases could drive volatility and shape expectations for the U.S. dollar.
✅ Support and Resistance Levels
Now, the support level is located at 1.12265.
Resistance level is located at 1.14380.
EURUSD Trade Executed June 2 EURUSD Trade Executed
June 2
4 hour chart logic
Last week Price takes sell side Wednesday. Thursday expands to the buy side stepping up from the 70 OTE. Friday was retracement to the 50 level. When price bounced off the 50 in the NY sliver bullet I suspected that we could see higher prices coming into Monday.
Minute chart logic
20:00 Asia expands immediately into a FVG and minor buy side. Admittedly I took a bad short thinking it was going to the equal lows.
*cross referenced DXY after evaluation of the higher time frame range that it would drop to its equal lows, while GBP would also rally to the equal highs
Hunting for an expansion signal
23:20 creates a swing high
23:30 Price swing low and comes back to its opening price of Asia right into a first presented FVG
*Price creates a tiny FVG
*23:55 taps the FVG and takes off
*price goes into a small consolidation
*1:00 price takes off
*1:10 I wanted to enter but froze waited for the next macro
1:50 entered
3:25 exited target of equal highs hit
I really relied on the higher time range that price would seek last Monday’s high to complete the range and for DXY to make its low.
I can see it so clearly on the 1 hour and 4 hour charts price narrative and why ICT coaches to manage bias from here. Hindsight I am desiring to trade the days range and sticking to my bias with understanding the what cycle price is in. EX Friday closes in a consolidation cycle expansion is next. Asia expansion for the win.
To be honest this trade feels like chasing price. Probably cause it is!
To study it feels better than the pips in my account.
*Price was in a premium-rule broken in taken this trade-but narrative was there
*Analysis was built from 4 hour which I m getting used to trusting-narrative was buy side was the target after taking sell side last week
*I expected a pull back from Sundays delivery, did not happen, barely made it to the 50 previous range
*Price pulling back to the 50 on Friday was key to a expansion buy today
4 hour chart is king is todays take away!
Potential Short Setup Within a Bullish Context
It seems that EURUSD has formed nested setups, indicating potential short-term bearish movement. Signs point to a possible short setup targeting the 4H order block. However, since this move would go against the prevailing higher-timeframe trend, the probability of it playing out might be lower.
🔍 My Trading Approach:
My trading approach is built around price imbalances and liquidity. I focus on aligning entries with session timings, identifying daily bias and key liquidity levels, and using tools like FVGs for precise execution.
🎯 Profit-Taking Rule:
I usually secure profits once price has moved at least 1.5× the stop-loss distance in my favor
EURUSAD 4hr Chart Analaysis If EUR/USD breaks above the 1.14218 level, the next bullish target would be 1.16710.
This level marks a potential continuation of the uptrend, suggesting strong bullish momentum. A clean breakout above 1.14218 would likely confirm buyer dominance, possibly driven by improving eurozone fundamentals or broad USD weakness. The 1.16710 zone could act as a medium-term resistance level, aligning with historical price action and potential Fibonacci extensions.
Traders should monitor price behavior closely near 1.14218 for confirmation of a breakout, such as high volume and sustained closes above the level.
EURUSD – Monday, June 2, 2025Current Outlook:
• Price is climbing slowly back toward our 1.14149 safe buy zone
• The secondary bullish structure is still holding cleanly
• No invalidations — bias remains bullish
📍 Buy Zones:
✅ HRHR Buys: Triggered at 1.12372
🔜 Safe Buys: Above 1.14149
🛡️ Safest Buys: Break and close above 1.16020
⚠️ Structure Notes:
We’ve respected both bullish trendlines so far
Daily candle formation is constructive — watching for a clean daily or 4H close near 1.14149 to trigger safe buys
🎯 Targets:
Intraday: 1.1500 zone
Swing: 1.16020 and beyond
Market next move 🔍 Original Analysis Summary:
Bearish Setup: Price is expected to break down from the small consolidation area (highlighted in red box).
Projection: A drop toward the lower target zone (~1.13200–1.13300).
Trigger: Likely based on rejection from minor resistance and upcoming U.S. economic data (flag icons).
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⚠️ Disruption (Bullish/Neutral Counter-View):
1. Support Holding Firm
The price has tested the red box area multiple times without a clear breakdown.
This could signal strong demand/support around 1.13600, invalidating the bearish momentum.
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2. Volume Spike on Bullish Candles
Notable bullish volume spikes suggest buyers are stepping in at current levels, defending support.
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3. Potential Bullish Reversal Pattern
The red box resembles a bullish flag or rectangle, often a continuation pattern — not necessarily a bearish signal.
If price breaks above 1.13700, it may trigger buy stop orders, fueling a rally.
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4. Favorable Euro Fundamentals
The eurozone flag icon suggests EU news is also pending. If this is hawkish or better than expected, EUR/USD could rally sharply, invalidating the bearish outlook.
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 2, 2025 EURUSDEUR/USD is recovering its recent losses recorded during the previous session, trading around 1.13700 on Monday during Asian hours. The pair is strengthening amid a weakening US dollar (USD) after the US Court of Appeals ruled on Thursday to allow US President Donald Trump's tariffs to take effect.
On Wednesday, a panel of three judges at the International Trade Court in Manhattan said Trump had exceeded his authority by imposing broad import tariffs and ruled the orders issued on April 2 illegal.
On Friday, President Trump said at a rally in Pennsylvania that he plans to double import tariffs on steel and aluminum to increase pressure on global steel producers and escalate the trade war. “We are going to impose a 25 percent increase. We are going to raise tariffs on steel imported into the United States from 25 percent to 50 percent, which will further strengthen the steel industry in the United States,” he said, according to Reuters.
On Saturday, the European Commission (EC) warned that Europe is ready to respond to President Trump's plan to double tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which would escalate the trade war between the world's two largest economic powers.
Trading recommendation: BUY 1.13600, SL 1.13200, TP 1.14200
EURSUD InsightGreetings to all subscribers.
Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe.
Key Points
- U.S. President Trump stated via Truth Social that China had completely violated the agreement with the U.S. Some media outlets reported that additional sanctions targeting China were being prepared. However, concerns over the U.S.-China trade conflict were eased after Trump said, “I am confident that I will speak with President Xi Jinping of China, and I hope we can resolve this issue.”
- President Trump announced an increase in tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, effective June 4. The EU immediately expressed strong regret over this decision.
- The U.S. Core PCE Price Index for April rose 2.5% YoY, and the headline PCE rose 2.1% YoY, both coming in below market expectations, thereby easing inflation concerns.
Key Economic Events This Week
+ June 2: Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech
+ June 3: Eurozone May Consumer Price Index (CPI)
+ June 4: Bank of Canada interest rate decision
+ June 5: ECB interest rate decision
+ June 6: U.S. May Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate
EURUSD Chart Analysis
Although it was expected to break through the resistance line smoothly, the pair encountered resistance around the 1.14000 level and pulled back to the central trendline. Since then, it has shown a renewed upward trend, supported by the trendline. If it successfully breaks through the 1.14000 level, a rise toward 1.16000 can be anticipated. However, if it fails to break the resistance, there is a possibility of a downward shift below the central trendline. In that case, a new strategy will be formulated.
USDEUR Long Trade Analysis – 30m Chart!📈
✅ Trade Setup Summary
Pair: USDEUR (USD vs. Euro)
Timeframe: 30-minute
Trade Type: Long (Buy)
Entry Zone: ~0.8795
Stop Loss: ~0.8766 (below yellow support zone)
Target Zone: ~0.8836 (mid-resistance)
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: Good (~1:2+)
🔍 Technical Insights
Falling Wedge Breakout Attempt:
Price is breaking out from a downward wedge (pink trendlines).
Support holding strong around the 0.8766 zone (yellow).
Double Retest Circle:
Prior breakout level (left) and current (right) show confluence — strengthening the long bias.
Immediate Resistance:
0.8812 (yellow line)
0.8836 (blue horizontal resistance – TP zone)
📌 Trade Confidence Signals
✅ Previous breakout zone retested successfully
🔼 Reversal pattern with higher low
📏 Risk well-defined; tight SL and decent upside
Week of 6/1/25: EU AnalysisEU 1h and 4h structure are bearish, but there was a large rejection of the daily CHoCH last week leading to large bullish price movement. Our 1h internal structure is bullish, so we will follow that trend for now.
Major news:
PMI - Monday
PMI/ADP NFP - Wed
Unemployment Claims - Thurs
NFP/Unemployment rate - Friday
EURUSD is in a Downside DirectionHello Traders
In This Chart EURUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today EURUSD analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (EURUSD market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on EURUSD Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
The double top chart patternThe claim boss breaking the neckline show strength of sellers coming into the market structure on the neckline is building a structure on the 15m building a head of shoulder chart pattern so watch out for the momentum that breaks the neckline and the pullback into the neckline once you see the exhaustion pullback coming in Play please begin by clicking tothe sell button
Story behind EURUSD chart and US10Y and DE10Y risk premiumLet’s have a look at the Currency and Bond markets today after an eventful last few weeks in both markets. After Moody’s downgrade of the US Gov bonds the markets look seemingly quiet. There has been no sudden spike in the US10Y. But it makes lot of sense to look beneath the hood and compare the Bond and the currency markets. Today we are looking into the 2 largest currency pairs, i.e. FX:EURUSD and the largest bond markets i.e. US10Y and German 10Y.
It is astounding to observe how the Fib retracement levels from the peak and troughs in the FX:EURUSD and TVC:US10 - TVC:DE10Y charts coincide. Both indicators at @ 0.618 Fib levels. As anyone would expect when the FX:EURUSD makes new highs the diff between TVC:US10Y and TVC:DE10Y hits new highs as investors long the FX:EURUSD chart and in that way hedge the risk in the TVC:US10Y without going short TVC:US10Y which will then adversely affect the investors portfolio. Institutional investors have been unwinding the long position in the TVC:US10Y by going long EUR, YEN and CHF in the currency markets without explicitly selling the US10Y.
Going back to the charts, what can we expect in the medium to long term? In my expectation both the charts can reach 0.786 Fib level and subsequently the 1.0 Levels. This will take the FX:EURUSD from 1.13 to 1.18 by the end of 2025 and then to our long-term target of 1.25. If those levels hold onto in the currency markets, then the risk premium of TVC:US10Y over TVC:DE10Y which is denoted in the chart by TVC:US10Y - TVC:DE10Y will go from 1.9% to 2.1% and then top out at 2.3%. May be this is the way USD will lose some of its market share as world reserve currency status.
Verdict: USD Reserve currency status weakening. Buoyant FX:EURUSD marching towards 1.25. TVC:US10Y - TVC:DE10Y can reach 2.3%.
What's your view ( scenerio 1 or 2 )
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📈 EUR/USD Weekly Chart – Wave 4 in Progress?
Wave 3 looks complete and price is now hovering in a key correction zone, hinting at the start of Wave 4.
Two possible paths are unfolding:
🔴 Scenario 1: Shallow Wave 4 correction → breakout to Wave 5, targeting 1.16667 and beyond.
🔵 Scenario 2: Deeper Wave 4 correction → retest of demand zone near 1.08, followed by a strong Wave 5 rally.
🧠 Elliott Wave traders, it’s time to stay sharp!
The reaction near the mid-box and support zone could define the next major move for the Euro.
💬 What’s your bias here — is this the start of Wave 5 or a fakeout before a deeper drop?
Comment your view 👇
#EURUSD #ElliottWave #ForexWeekly #GreenFireForex #WaveAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #SupplyAndDemand
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EurUsd AnalysisStrategy Suggestion
Bullish Bias above 1.1210 with breakout confirmation above 1.1418.
Price is above both 50-EMA (green) and 200-EMA (red), signaling medium to long-term bullish trend.
Recent strong bullish candles suggest continuation, but price shows some consolidation near highs.
RSI (14) ≈ 65: Near overbought, but not extreme, leaves room for more upside.
Volume: Elevated on recent bullish move, then tapered slightly—momentum slowing, but not reversing.