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EURUSD trade ideas

EUR/USD Trend Analysis: Pullback or Reversal?Alright Traders, Looking at the charts, it seems price just broke below a really strong trend line support – that line held up multiple times (you can see the circled spots!). Now, the big question is: Is this just a quick dip (a pullback) in our current uptrend, or is this the end of the uptrend altogether? If the price holds up at the 1.16146 support level, we could see a strong move higher, potentially all the way to our daily trend line resistance (that dotted line). But, if the 0.618 Fibonacci support level fails to hold, we might be looking at a short downtrend heading towards a daily or even weekly support zone. My technical indicators are flashing 'buy' right now, but we know we can't just follow indicators blindly. So, here's my plan: I'm waiting. I want to see if this pullback finishes and price starts climbing again, or if it clearly shows us the uptrend is over and a downtrend has started. Patience is key! Timeframes used: Daily and Weekly Current Trend: Uptrend"
by Sully-X
EUR/USD Technical Outlook Daily chart frame**EUR/USD has bounced from the S1 zone (\~1.1595–1.1575)**, chart analysis **EUR/USD Technical Outlook** **Current Price:** \~1.1618 **Recent Action:** Rejection from S1 zone, forming a potential base. **Bullish Scenario (Active)** The pair has bounced from key **S1 support** (1.1595 area), suggesting demand is present. **If momentum holds:** * **Immediate Target 1:** 1.1645 (Fibonacci + 21 EMA) * **Target 2:** 1.1665–1.1685 zone (7 EMA + minor resistance) * **Target 3:** 1.1725 (R1 zone and mid-July resistance) * Breakout above R1 would shift momentum firmly bullish. *Watch for bullish continuation candles and rising volume.* **Bearish Risk (Still Possible)** * If the bounce stalls near **1.1645–1.1665**, and the pair reverses: * A drop back toward **1.1595–1.1575** support could occur again. * Break below that zone would expose: * **S2 support at 1.1510** * Possibly extend to **1.1475** in case of stronger USD demand Summary: * **Bounce from S1** shows initial bullish strength. * **Key resistance to break:** 1.1645–1.1685 for bullish continuation. * **Key support to hold:** 1.1595–1.1575 to avoid deeper correction.
Long
by Harry_Megat
Euro Steady, EU Prepares $84B RetaliationEUR/USD hovered near 1.1670 in Tuesday’s Asian session as markets awaited US-EU trade updates. Despite Trump’s 30% tariff announcement on EU imports, he confirmed that negotiations with Brussels are ongoing ahead of the August 1 deadline. According to Bloomberg, the EU is ready to respond with proportional tariffs targeting $84B (€72B) worth of US goods, including Boeing jets, bourbon, cars, and machinery. Resistance for the pair is at 1.1715, while support is at 1.1645.
by ChartMage
EURUSD Under Pressure as Macro Divergence WidensEURUSD is facing renewed downward pressure after rallying from 1.02 to 1.18 in a strong multi-month move. However, diverging inflation expectations between the EU and the U.S. are now weighing heavily on the pair. One major signal comes from real yields. The Germany–U.S. 10-year real yield spread currently sits at -1.1182, the same level seen during the 2024 top near 1.11 and the 2023 top near 1.10. By that measure, EURUSD appears expensive. Over the past five years, 69% of EURUSD’s moves can be statistically explained by this real yield spread, making it a key macro indicator. Inflation expectations are also diverging. The U.S. 5y5y inflation swap is trending upward, while the EU’s equivalent has remained flat. This suggests the Fed may keep rates elevated for longer than initially expected. Beyond bond market dynamics, the August 1 tariff deadline is approaching with no deal in sight. In fact, tensions are rising, as the EU prepares possible countermeasures targeting $84 billion worth of U.S. goods. Adding to the pressure, political risk in France is building due to ongoing budget negotiations. Technically, the recent break of both the uptrend (yellow) and the downtrend channel was significant. Euro bulls now need to reclaim and hold above 1.1660 to avoid deeper losses. If they fail, 1.1445 could become the next key support level, with further downside possible depending on how the news develops.
Short
by ftdsystem
EURUSD TRIGGERED STOP LOSSTRADING IDEA UPDATE - EURUSD TRIGGERED STOP LOSS The U.S. CPI report data came out right what the market expected (2.7% vs. 2.7% annually). After this report the pair went downwards on increased volume, triggering my stop loss and found the support only on 4-h sma200 and 1.16000 level. What will be the possible scenario next? I assume that the asset will go testing the trendline at 1.16650. If the test is successful, I will consider opening a 🔽 a pending sell stop order at 1.16651 with ❌a stop loss at 1.18180 and 🤑a take profit at 1.15122 Only if the retest is successful, not earlier! Let's observe first. Additionally, today is the U.S. PPI report coming out at 12:30 p.m. UTC, so got to be careful around this time
Short
by ProfessorSingapore
July 15 2025 -Sell Limit ActivatedGood day, folks! Just sharing another learning from my ideas here: EURUSD has been in a bearish structure since July 14, 2025 (1H Intraday). As you know, I always look for clear supply or demand validation before placing a sell or buy limit order. On the chart, you can see a valid supply zone that was generated on Monday. After that, I waited for a clear move during the Tuesday London and New York sessions, with the CPI news release acting as a catalyst for more volatility. The trade came to fruition during the New York session on Tuesday. (See chart for the complete breakdown of the movement and entry.) RR: 1:3 Another Wyckoff schematics and structure analysis.
Short
by glyrad
Eyes on 1.16300: EUR/USD Prepares for the Next Move.📉 EUR/USD Technical 📈 The pair has broken a strong support level and is now finding footing around 1.15970, forming a fresh bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG) at this zone. At the moment, EUR/USD is moving within a bearish FVG. Here's what to watch next: 🔻 If the market dips from here, we could see a reversal from the lower edge of this FVG. 🔼 But if it holds and pushes higher, breaking above 1.16300 — the CE (Continuity Equation) level of the bearish FVG — that could unlock further bullish momentum. 🚨 Key Levels to Watch: Support: 1.15970 Resistance/Breakout Zone: 1.16300 📊 Stay alert — price action at these levels could define the next move. 👉 DYOR – Do Your Own Research 📌 Not financial advice.
by Peter_Wade
EURUSD at Daily Demand After CPI – Bullish Setup in PlayHello Traders, I hope everyone is having a fantastic week! Today on EURUSD, price is trading within the daily flip demand zone following yesterday’s USD CPI news release. While I usually avoid trading during CPI events due to the high volatility and unpredictable price spikes—often driven by algorithms and emotional retail reactions—yesterday did present a valid short opportunity. Now that price is back in the daily demand zone, a bullish setup using lower time frame (LTF) confirmation offers a high-probability trade. We could see a decent push up toward the nearby daily supply zone.
Long
by fxtrends28
Eurousd techinical analysis.This chart of EUR/USD (Euro / U.S. Dollar) on the 3-hour timeframe includes several technical elements: Key Elements Identified: 1. Descending Channel (Blue & Red Area): Price was moving within a descending trend channel, indicating a bearish trend. 2. Breakout Above Trend Line: The price has broken out of the descending trend line ("Trande line" — which is likely a typo for "Trend line"), suggesting potential bullish reversal. 3. FVG (Fair Value Gap): This marks an imbalance in price action where the price moved too rapidly, often leading to a retracement or revisit. It could be used as a liquidity target for price to fill. 4. O.B (Order Block): An order block represents a strong area of institutional buying/selling. Price appears to have reacted from this bullish order block, initiating the recent upward move. 5. Measurement Box (0.55% / 63.3 pips): Indicates the expected or measured move from the O.B. to the FVG level. 6. Horizontal Support and Resistance Levels: Marked in purple, showing recent consolidation or price reaction
Long
by Rickypher
EUR/USD drops post US CPI reportAfter gaining ground last week, the US dollar initially came under slight pressure earlier today. However, it regained momentum in the aftermath of a mixed US inflation report. Despite the nuanced inflation print, market expectations around interest rate policy remained largely unchanged. Investors continue to anticipate a slower pace of rate reductions, a sentiment that could further weigh on the EUR/USD pair—provided confidence in the Federal Reserve’s monetary approach remains intact. Mixed Signals from US Inflation Data The consumer price index for June presented a mixed picture. Headline CPI increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, surpassing both the previous 2.4% figure and the 2.6% forecast. However, core CPI (which excludes food and energy) showed a slightly softer reading, rising by only 0.2% month-on-month—below the expected 0.3%. The annual core rate stood at 2.9%, in line with expectations. This mixed data has not allayed fears that inflation could remain sticky for longer. As a result, the Fed may hold off on aggressive rate cuts, although a possible move in September remains on the table. Adding to the dollar’s bullish case, President Trump has proposed aggressive tariffs—35% on select Canadian goods and up to 30% on imports from Mexico and the EU—if no agreements are reached by August 1. These protectionist threats, combined with his expansive fiscal agenda, could drive inflation higher and bolster the dollar if market faith in US policy stays strong. Euro Zone Data Shows Resilience, But the Euro Falters Despite some encouraging macroeconomic indicators from the Eurozone, the euro slipped. Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment index rose to 52.7, outperforming both expectations (50.8) and the previous reading (47.5). Additionally, industrial production climbed 1.7% month-on-month, beating forecasts. While these positive data points reflect a degree of resilience in the euro area, trade tensions are looming. The European Union has said it will retaliate on US products—ranging from aircraft to alcohol—should trade talks collapse or fail to yield agreements by the August 1 deadline. Technical Outlook Technically, EUR/USD breached the bullish trendline established since Q1, a development that bears are watching as the session wears on. Currently, the pair is testing a key support zone between 1.1570 and 1.1630—an area that served as resistance in both April and mid-June before the rally that followed. Should prices fall decisively below this support today or in the coming days, the technical bias could shift bearish. On the upside, resistance lies at 1.1700 and 1.1750. A break above these levels would clear the way for bulls to target a fresh 2025 high above 1.1830. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
by FOREXcom