#AN021: TRUMP Threats on Tariffs and FOREX Tensions
Global markets are waking up to a currency cold war. Hi, I'm Trader Andrea Russo, and today I want to share the latest news with you.
Donald Trump set the day alight, launching a barrage of threats from a rally in Ohio:
"If re-elected, I will impose 60% tariffs on all of China, 20% on Mexico, and 10% on the European Union. And I'm telling Putin clearly: if you continue to help China evade our embargoes, we will hit Russia too."
The words reverberated across global investment banks, triggering an immediate reaction in the dollar and emerging market currencies.
Markets React: USD Soars, GBP and NOK on Alert
The US dollar gained ground against nearly all major currencies, while the GBP collapsed under pressure from fears of a BoE rate cut and a slowing labor market.
The GBP/NOK pair, in particular, is showing signs of a structured bearish breakout: the pound is under dual pressure (domestic politics + trade war), while the Norwegian krone is indirectly benefiting from rising energy prices and pro-commodity sentiment.
US CPI at 2:30 PM: The Real Detonator
The US core inflation figure will be released at 2:30 PM Italian time. The consensus is for +3.4%, but a higher reading could push the Fed to remain more hawkish for longer. This would strengthen the dollar and create new shock waves in weak and emerging market currencies.
Specifically:
USD/JPY could break above 162.00 with strength.
GBP/USD risks a break below 1.29.
USD/SEK and USD/MXN are the key pairs to watch for explosive movements.
Trump vs. Powell: A Showdown
Meanwhile, fears are growing of a direct attack by Trump on the Fed. According to Deutsche Bank, markets are underestimating the possibility that Trump will attempt to remove Jerome Powell if he returns to the White House.
"The market is ignoring the Trump-Powell variance. If he really tries, the dollar could fall 4% in a week," – Deutsche Bank
We are about to enter the best time of the month for Forex. Those who get their timing wrong today will burn capital. Those who wait for the right signal can ride the trend arising from a predicted global crisis.
EURUSD trade ideas
LONG EURUSD I am LONG on this pair at time of writing.
IT is important to adjust your paper profits NOT SO high that it will wipe you out and you need to restart at a higher buying price. Say you have 2 contracts and is in profits position, you can take 1 contract or 0.5 or 1.5 size and leave the remaining to run at breakeven SL position. That way, if you are riding on the market trend, then your remaining position be it 0.5 or 1.5 will still benefit and you can just accumulate as it trends up.
This works for me but may not be for everyone. Choose a strategy that fits you. Different folks, different strokes.
The Day AheadMacro Data Highlights
United States
June CPI – Crucial inflation gauge; likely to shape Fed rate expectations.
Empire Manufacturing Index (July) – Regional economic activity snapshot.
China
Q2 GDP – Key read on the health of the world’s second-largest economy.
June Retail Sales / Industrial Production / Home Prices – Important for tracking domestic demand and real estate trends.
Europe
Germany & Eurozone ZEW Surveys (July) – Investor sentiment indicators, especially relevant amid sluggish European growth.
Eurozone May Industrial Production – Tracks output momentum in manufacturing-heavy economies.
Italy May Government Debt – Sovereign debt level insights amid fiscal scrutiny.
Canada
June CPI – Important for BoC policy outlook.
Existing Home Sales / May Manufacturing Sales – Indicators of economic activity and housing market resilience.
Central Bank Speakers
Fed: Bowman, Barr, Collins, Barkin – Watch for comments on inflation and rate cut timing.
BoE: Governor Bailey – May impact GBP and UK rate expectations.
Earnings (Focus: Financials)
JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Bank of New York Mellon, BlackRock
Q2 results will offer insights into:
Net interest income trends
Credit quality & loan growth
Capital market activity (BlackRock focus on AUM and inflows)
Trading Takeaway
U.S. CPI and bank earnings are the top market movers – inflation print could shift rate cut expectations for September.
China data may influence commodity and EM sentiment.
Fed/BoE speakers may provide policy clarity amid disinflationary trends.
Financials earnings will be key to market tone, especially for value stocks and financial sector ETFs.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
EURUSD: Move Up Expected! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 1.16869 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 1.16975.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
EURUSD SEEMS TO FIND SUPPORT
TRADING IDEA UPDATE - EURUSD SEEMS TO FIND SUPPORT🦾
EURUSD seems to find support on a trendline and shows us divergence on RSI on 1-h timeframe. So, I decided to close my trade in advance before my stop loss gets triggered and open long position with a
🔼 a market buy order at 1.16833 with
❌a stop loss at 1.16324 and
🤑a take profit at 1.18266
Additionally, today is the U.S. CPI report data coming out. Market expects the annual inflation to be around 2.7%. Me, personally, think that actual June inflation will be a bit lower, which may provide some fundamental support to the EURUSD. Will see.
Eurousd techinical analysis.This chart shows the EUR/USD currency pair on a 1-hour timeframe. Here's a breakdown of the key technical elements:
Key Features:
1. Purple Zones (Rectangles):
Top Rectangle (~1.1695 - 1.1700): Resistance zone.
Bottom Rectangle (~1.1660): Support zone.
2. Pink Descending Trendline:
Represents a downtrend or dynamic resistance.
Price recently approached or tested this trendline from below.
3. Yellow Zigzag and Arrow:
Illustrates potential price movement—an anticipated rejection from the trendline and a move down toward support.
4. Current Price:
1.16858, sitting just below the trendline and within the resistance zone.
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Interpretation:
Bearish Bias: The chart suggests a potential short opportunity if the price fails to break
EURUSD(20250715) Today's AnalysisMarket news:
Sources said that after Trump's latest trade tax threat, the European Central Bank will discuss a more negative scenario next week than expected in June. The ECB is still expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting on July 24. Discussions on rate cuts are still postponed to September.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
1.1671
Support and resistance levels:
1.1714
1.1698
1.1687
1.1654
1.1644
1.1628
Trading strategy:
If it breaks through 1.1671, consider buying in, the first target price is 1.1687
If it breaks through 1.1654, consider selling in, the first target price is 1.1644
LONG | EUR/USD | 1DCurrent Level: ~1.1662
Revised Entry Zone: 🔄 Buy the dip around 1.1660–1.1670
This aligns with 50-day EMA and daily/4H pivot (~1.1630–1.1670) acting as support.
Stop Loss: 1.1630 (just below 50 EMA & recent low)
Target: 1.1750 → 1.1800 (range high/resistance)
Risk:Reward: ~1:3.8
✅ Institutional Rationale:
Momentum remains bullish, though momentum indicators are cooling—price retesting structural support (mid-BB, pivot zone).
Weekly outlook still favors bulls while above 1.1637–1.1670—suggesting accumulated buy orders in this zone.
Event risk: U.S. employment and Fed speakers imminent—creates ideal buy-on-dip opportunities with tight stops.
Eurousd techinical analysis.This chart displays the EUR/USD (Euro/US Dollar) currency pair on a 1-hour timeframe, with a technical analysis setup that includes:
1. Downward Trendline (Pink): This suggests a prevailing bearish trend, with price respecting lower highs.
2. Support and Resistance Zones (Purple Boxes):
Several horizontal purple rectangles highlight areas of previous support and resistance.
These zones represent price levels where buying or selling pressure has historically emerged.
3. Price Action & Pattern (Yellow Line):
A clear "M" shape or double-top pattern formed, indicating potential bearish reversal.
The pattern breaks down below a key support zone, suggesting a continuation to the downside.
4. Projection Arrow (Yellow Arrow):
The yellow arrow
EURUSD Sellers In Panic! BUY!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the EURUSD next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 1.1684
Bias - Bullish
Safe Stop Loss - 1.1633
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 1.1776
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURUSD LONG TRADE PLANThe pair is trading in a global bullish trend supported by the rising trendline on D1. On the intraday view, the pair is currently trading on a minor bearish trend looking to test the trendline. In my view, the pair will eventually break above the falling channel which will indicate a bullish rally again.
Please do your own analysis before placing any trades.
Cheers and Happy Trading.
EURUSD Analysis – Smart Money Breakout + Reversal Zone in Play🔹 1. Bearish Channel & Liquidity Trap Setup
Price action from late June into mid-July formed a clearly defined descending channel, with consistent lower highs and lower lows. This structure likely attracted retail traders into short positions, expecting continued downside.
💡 Key Insight: The initial breakout of the channel was a fake move — often referred to as a liquidity grab or inducement. This is typical in smart money models where institutions trap early traders before the real move begins.
🔹 2. Major CHoCH (Change of Character)
Shortly after the fakeout, price sharply reversed and broke a major internal structure level, giving us our first CHoCH confirmation. This is a critical event in SMC, signaling a possible trend reversal from bearish to bullish.
Why it matters: A CHoCH after a channel + fakeout combo is a strong reversal signal, especially when supported by volume and aggression.
Visual cue: Look at the bullish engulfing momentum candle post-fakeout — this was the moment smart money entered.
🔹 3. Trendline Break + SR Interchange (Support/Resistance Flip)
Following the CHoCH, price broke the trendline and came back down to test a high-probability SR Interchange Zone — an area where previous resistance turned into fresh support.
This zone also aligns with the order block and inefficiency area, making it a premium entry for institutions.
Notice how price respected the zone before launching aggressively upward.
🧠 Note: This was the cleanest entry point in this setup — combining structure break, liquidity, and a demand zone.
🔹 4. Major BOS (Break of Structure)
After the retest, EURUSD broke the last major lower high, confirming a Bullish BOS (Break of Structure). This is where many traders realized the trend had shifted.
Market sentiment flipped from bearish to bullish.
Momentum increased, indicating institutional buying pressure.
🔹 5. Next Target: Reversal Zone (Supply Area)
Price has now reached a critical supply zone (1.1930 – 1.1970) where the next major reaction is likely to occur. This area was previously a strong rejection point, and it aligns with a potential higher timeframe supply zone.
⚠️ Watch for:
Bearish rejection wicks
Liquidity sweeps above highs
Bearish engulfing or mitigation patterns
CHoCH on lower timeframes (1H, 15m)
✅ Key Trading Takeaways:
Liquidity Trap: Retail was trapped inside a clean channel.
Fakeout Move: Induced shorts were wiped out.
CHoCH & BOS: Clear reversal pattern with momentum.
Perfect Retest Entry: Price retested demand and launched.
Current Area = Supply/Distribution: Great place to look for shorts or take profits.
📌 Possible Trading Plans:
🔸 Plan A: Reversal Short (Countertrend)
Entry: Inside 1.1930–1.1970 zone
Confirmation: Bearish PA + LTF CHoCH
TP1: Previous BOS (~1.1830)
TP2: Demand zone retest (~1.1650)
SL: Above 1.1980–1.2000
🔸 Plan B: Continuation Long (Breakout Bias)
Entry: Break + Retest above 1.2000 psychological level
SL: Below breakout wick
TP1: 1.2100
TP2: 1.2200+
🔖 Concepts Applied:
Smart Money Concepts (CHoCH, BOS, liquidity sweep)
Price Action Structure
Trendline break and retest
Supply & Demand Zones
Support/Resistance Flip (SR Interchange)
Volume + Momentum Confirmation
🔄 Conclusion:
This chart demonstrates a classic Smart Money narrative:
“Trap the retail, shift the structure, drive price into premium, then reverse.”
We're now at a make-or-break supply zone. Watch price behavior carefully — this is where smart traders either secure profits or prepare for the next leg.
EURUSD and GBPUSD are preparing to continue the upward trendAfter a significant rise in the EURUSD and GBPUSD, they have formed a descending price channel, and it is expected that this channel will be broken to complete the upward trend, because there is no sign of weakness yet, and the Main Lows have not yet been broken.
Which Way to GoHello students and traders, let us jump into a quick top down analysis of the EURUSD.
On the Monthly, we see that price is in a down swing. We have seen price recently go bullish, all the way into the Monthly zone, from where it has begun to reverse bearish. We expect price to hold bearish and continue to melt towards our Monthly liquidity target.
Weekly & Daily:
On the weekly and daily Time frames, we have a bullish setup. This bullish setup is what has helped in driving prices all the way up and into the Monthly refined reversal zone. The weekly timeframe is curently seeing a bearish reversal. With the price hitting the monthly zone, there is a low likelihood of price continuing bullish. The bearishness might just continue for a while.
4 hour and 1 Hour
On the smaler timeframes of the 1 and 4 hour timeframe, market is in a bearish swing. We see prices making lower highs and lower lows, a clear sign of a downtrend. We expect this bearishness to hold. Where that happens, we will see market in the longrun and on the lower time frames experience bearish reversals, with price untimately targetting the Monthly liquidity target.
EURUSD possible long from 1.1610 area for 1.1730#eurusd market rallied 1.1450 - 1.1640. then consolidation between 1.1580-1640 area. Institutions put more buy orders and price rallied again after bases out and reached upto 1.1830 area. Now market sell off / retracement to test demand area to fill the remaining unfilled order for another leg higher. Demand zone: 1.1610-1.1590. stop loss: 1.1565, target: 1.1730. in weekly and daily chart market forming distribution shape for big sell opportunity.