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EURUSD trade ideas

Rejection from Supply Zone, Bearish Continuation Toward PDLAfter failing to break out with strength and confirm the demand zone, EUR/USD is showing signs of a bearish continuation. The price was rejected from the Demand Zone near the NY High, indicating a possible shift in momentum. This setup suggests the pair may continue its downward trend, aiming for the Previous Day Low (PDL) around 1.16620. With a favorable risk-to-reward ratio of 1:5, this move could present a clean and high-probability short opportunity as long as bearish structure holds.
Short
by ByCraig
EURUSD: Decision Time at Major Channel SupportToday we're looking at the EURUSD on the 4-hour timeframe, which presents a very clear and actionable technical setup. Price has been trading within a well-defined ascending channel since April. This channel has provided a reliable framework for the prevailing uptrend, with the green bands acting as dynamic support and the red band as resistance. The Current Situation: After a strong rejection from the top of the channel (red resistance zone) around the 1.1850 area, the price has entered a corrective phase. We are now approaching a critical inflection point where multiple support factors converge. Primary Support: The lower boundary of the main ascending channel (green zone). This is the backbone of the entire bullish structure. Horizontal Support: The purple zone around 1.1600-1.1625, which previously acted as resistance, is now a potential support floor. Short-Term Resistance: A minor descending trendline is capping the immediate price action, forming a small wedge or triangle pattern. The Bullish Scenario: The dominant trend is up. Therefore, the primary thesis is to look for a bullish continuation. A long entry becomes compelling if we see the price hold at the confluence of the ascending channel support and the horizontal purple zone. A definitive bounce from this area, confirmed by a break and close above the short-term descending trendline, would be the trigger. Initial Target: A retest of the recent highs around 1.1800. Ultimate Target: A push towards the upper boundary of the ascending channel. The Bearish Invalidation: This bullish outlook becomes invalid if sellers manage to force a decisive 4-hour close below the ascending channel's support line. A break of this magnitude would negate the multi-month uptrend structure, signaling a significant shift in market sentiment and likely initiating a deeper sell-off. Conclusion: EURUSD is at a crossroads. The structure is clean, and the levels are well-defined. The bias remains bullish as long as the price respects the established channel. Watch the 1.1600-1.1650 support area for signs of a bounce. A break below this critical zone would warrant a shift to a bearish perspective. Disclaimer: The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
Long
by ManiMarkets
#AN019: Digital Currencies (CBDCs) Will Change Forex How the world of official digital currencies (CBDCs) is already impacting Forex, opening up new opportunities rarely considered elsewhere. Hello, I'm Forex Trader Andrea Russo. On the one hand, Shanghai is evaluating countermeasures against stablecoins and cryptocurrencies, including yuan-backed currencies, while China is moving closer to a reasonable transition to its own "soft" stablecoin, after years of restrictions on crypto trading. On the other, Pakistan is launching a pilot CBDC, aligning itself with a momentous shift: it is now shaping its own digital monetary system, with direct impacts on inflation, reserves, and currency pairs. These initiatives are not isolated. They are part of a global phenomenon: over 130 central banks are studying or testing CBDCs, with Europe, China, and the Middle East at the forefront. American hostility (e.g., the ban on digital dollars) risks pushing others to consolidate their own digital currencies as a geopolitical and financial shield. In Forex, these developments could generate repercussions even in the short term: EUR/CNY or INR exchange rate: Retail and wholesale CBDCs will facilitate direct trade, reducing dependence on the dollar, and potentially giving rise to new flows in Asian crosses. Reduced cross-border costs and times: Systems like mBridge (China, Hong Kong, Thailand, UAE, Saudi Arabia) will allow instant transactions and cross-border digital currencies, breaking down SWIFT's dominance and encouraging lower demand for USD payments. New interest rate paradigm: CBDCs may include fixed interest rates, creating competitive pressure on swaps and futures, and forcing traditional central banks to clarify their strategies. Digital Safe Havens: If EUR or CNY become globally interoperable, new forms of safe haven currencies could emerge, impacting crosses such as EUR/USD, USD/CNY, and INR/USD. Actional conclusion for Forex traders: We will soon enter uncharted territory: it will not just be a matter of evaluating central banks and SMEs, but also of understanding if and when official digital payment systems will have a real impact on currency routes. For those who want to anticipate flows: Monitor CBDC pilots in Asia and the Middle East. Keep an eye on retail adoption in the BRICS countries: in the coming quarters, we could see direct flows from USD to digital CNY, INR, and AED. Evaluate potential longs on digital-friendly crosses (e.g., USD/INR digital) and shorts on USD linked to interest in stablecoins. Forex is entering its new digital era: the question is only one: are you ready to navigate it?
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
EURUSD Energy buildup supported at 1.1590The EURUSD currency pair continues to exhibit a bullish price action bias, supported by a sustained rising trend. Recent intraday movement reflects a sideways consolidation breakout, suggesting potential continuation of the broader uptrend. Key Technical Level: 1.1640 This level marks the prior consolidation range and now acts as pivotal support. A corrective pullback toward 1.1640 followed by a bullish rejection would reinforce the bullish trend, targeting the next resistance levels at: 1.1830 – Near-term resistance 1.1900 – Minor swing high 1.1940 – Longer-term bullish objective On the other hand, a decisive daily close below 1.1640 would invalidate the bullish setup, shifting the outlook to bearish in the short term. This could trigger a deeper retracement toward: 1.1590 – Initial support 1.1530 – Key downside target Conclusion: As long as 1.1640 holds as support, the technical outlook remains bullish, favoring long positions on dips. A confirmed break below this level would signal a shift in sentiment and open the door to a corrective pullback phase. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day AheadFriday, July 11 – Key Economic Data Summary: US: June federal budget balance will shed light on fiscal health. A wider deficit may raise debt concerns and impact bond markets. UK: May monthly GDP is crucial for gauging recession risk. Weak growth could pressure the pound and fuel rate cut expectations. Germany: June wholesale prices and May current account data will influence ECB policy views and Euro sentiment. Falling prices support easing; a lower surplus signals trade weakness. Canada: June jobs report and May building permits highlight labor and housing trends. Strong jobs may delay rate cuts; weak permits suggest housing softness. Market Focus: Currency and bond market volatility likely, especially in GBP, CAD, and EUR, with equities reacting to growth signals. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
EURUSDRecent Price Action • Price attempted to break the descending structure but failed near 1.1705. • A bearish rejection followed by a drop to 1.1667 shows sellers remain in control. • Current bounce to 1.1680 is weak — no strong bullish follow-through. Next Move Scenarios Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation (Base Case) • If 1.1685–1.1700 holds as resistance, a move down is expected. • Breakdown of 1.1667 likely leads to: • Target 1: 1.1650 • Target 2: 1.1600 Sell Setup • Entry: 1.1685–1.1695 • Stop Loss: 1.1715 • Take Profit: 1.1650 , 1.1600 and 1.15250
Short
by HavalMamar
With EUR/USD at 1.20, is Europe at risk of collapse? With EUR/USD at 1.20, is Europe at risk of collapse? EUR/USD surpassed $1.175, reaching levels last seen in August 2021, following news of a US proposal to the EU regarding a trade agreement. The proposal provides for the maintenance of a 10% base tariff with exemptions for certain sectors, including aeronautics and alcohol. Washington has not provided details regarding possible exemptions for other sectors such as automobiles, steel, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals, as requested by the EU. The European Union aims to reach a preliminary agreement with the United States by the end of the week to maintain the 10% tariff beyond the August 1 deadline, while negotiations for a permanent agreement continue. Meanwhile, the European Union has announced its intention to introduce compensatory tariffs on a selection of US products in response to US tariffs on metals. European authorities have also signaled that, if no agreement is reached, further measures could be implemented, including export controls and restrictions on US companies' access to public procurement. In terms of monetary policy, market operators are discounting the possibility of only one further rate cut by the ECB before the end of the year. Following a period of marked acceleration, the inflation rate in the Eurozone has aligned with the 2% target. According to preliminary estimates provided by Eurostat, the core index—which excludes food and energy components—also remains stable at 2.3%, reinforcing evidence of a decline in overall inflationary pressures. However, tensions remain in the services and food sectors, where persistent price increases are still being observed. Inflation in the services sector rose by 3.3% in June, while food prices continue to be one of the main factors putting pressure on household budgets. Consumers' perception of inflation remains significantly higher than official figures: suffice it to say that the average inflation perceived by European consumers has been stable at 3.1% for several months. This gap contributes to social dissatisfaction and undermines confidence in the economic policies adopted. At the same time, the European Central Bank is maintaining a cautious stance. Although short-term inflation expectations are declining, analysts consider a further rate cut at the next meeting in July unlikely. The central bank aims to avoid a premature rise in demand that could translate into further price increases, especially in light of the persistent geopolitical uncertainties affecting energy markets. In summary, although the stabilization of inflation is a significant achievement, it remains fragile and subject to exogenous variables that are difficult to control, such as energy prices, which are heavily influenced by geopolitical balances. Furthermore, this stabilization does not appear sufficient to stimulate economic recovery in a context characterized by clear signs of weakness. The exchange rate is now approaching 1.20, and it is important to analyze the potential consequences of such a high rate. The appreciation of the euro is another critical factor: the strengthening of the single currency against the dollar is causing concern. An exchange rate of up to USD 1.20 remains manageable; however, an appreciation beyond that level could put significant pressure on the European economy. An excessively strong euro penalizes exports, reducing the competitiveness of European companies on international markets. This dynamic exacerbates the difficulties already encountered by the manufacturing sector, which continues to operate below the expansion threshold: for example, the PMI index remains below 50 points in many key economies, including Italy and France, indicating a phase of contraction. Only Spain is showing moderate growth. In light of the weakness of the dollar and the continued strengthening of the euro, a reallocation of investments is expected, with an increase in exposure to US markets and a simultaneous reduction in the weight of European stocks in the portfolio. Currently, I hold open long positions in the following stocks: CODEXIS, PALISADE, RMS, AZO, HYMC, and INTU.
by Antonio_Ferlito
#AN018: Summer shock, tariffs, Fed delays, and the dollar's shif In recent days, the forex world has experienced a sequence of key events that could redefine the global currency landscape in the coming months. Risk to the dollar has become structural, the threat of tariffs is multiplying again, and the combination of geopolitical uncertainty and monetary policy creates an extremely risky mix for exchange rates. Let's start with the Fed minutes: Jerome Powell attributed tariff risk to the main reason for postponing possible rate cuts. Market expectations are realigning toward a longer rate cycle, fueling a climate of global uncertainty. At the same time, Goldman Sachs warns that the dollar is increasingly moving as a "risky" currency, correlated with equity markets—an emerging market rather than a safe haven. On the geopolitical front, President Trump has relaunched the trade war: announcements of tariffs of up to 35% on Canada, up to 20% on Europe, and 50% on copper from Brazil have caused futures volatility to soar and sent the dollar into a short-term rally. But Deutsche Bank is sounding the alarm: the summer period of low liquidity and rising trade tensions represents a potential trigger for prolonged currency turbulence. The Financial Times envisions a scenario in which the dollar loses ground as the dominant currency, ushering in a multipolar currency world in which the euro, renminbi, gold, and even cryptocurrencies could gain ground. The impact on Forex: USD: The narrative is changing: no longer a net safe haven, but an asset correlated with political and risk cycles. The weakness of the DXY index in the first half of 2025 (-10%) reflects this transition. EUR/USD: Potentially favored if the dollar continues its consolidation. However, new tariffs and US-EU uncertainty could provide temporary support for the greenback. USD/JPY and USD/CHF: These crosses will be subject to greater volatility, with the next catalyst being the Fed minutes and the timing of tariffs. Safe-haven currencies strengthen during periods of uncertainty. CAD, AUD, NZD: penalized by tariffs on Canada and Brazil and a weak dollar. OPEC+ and geopolitical tensions could boost commodities, but data confirmation is needed. Commodity cross-correlation: USD/CAD could rebound if oil loses momentum, while AUD/JPY is sensitive to both the RBA and increased global risk. Conclusion: The current currency environment appears unstable and sensitive to political and trade developments. Summer volatility could persist, and those who can read the macro and institutional signals (Fed, tariffs, geopolitics) will have the opportunity to enter accurately. Until a stable direction emerges, EUR/USD looks like the most interesting cross to capture a potential structural correction in the dollar.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
EURUSD is ready to break supportCMCMARKETS:EURUSD The Euro fell to 1.1670 on Friday, positioning for nearly a 1% weekly loss 📊, as investors recalibrated risk exposure amid escalating trade tensions ⚔️ and shifting monetary policy signals 🏦. 📉 Market Structure: 🔻 EURUSD has traded in a bearish trend since July 1. 🔹 Support levels: 1.1680 and 1.1590. 🔹 Retested the 1.1680 support zone on Friday. 💡 How to Trade This: ✅ If the pair rebounds from support 🔄, consider BUYING with a Take Profit near the next resistance level. ❌ If the support breaks with confirmation 🩻, consider SELLING to target lower support zones. 📰 What’s Driving the Move? 🏦 Monetary Policy: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee pushed back against calls for aggressive rate cuts 🗣️, reaffirming the Fed’s focus on its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability ⚖️. His cautious stance adds uncertainty 🤔 to the policy outlook for the second half of the year as markets weigh inflation risks vs. growth slowdown signals. 💼 Economic Data: The labor market remains solid 💪, but recent jobless claims data show early signs of cooling 🧊, following last week’s strong NFP report. 💵 Dollar Strength: The dollar advanced sharply against the euro 🚀, driven by risk aversion, relative yield advantages, and investor positioning ahead of upcoming inflation data and the Fed’s next policy signals 📈. 🚨 Watch for: 🔸 A confirmed breakout or rebound at 1.1680 to guide trade entries. 🔸 Upcoming U.S. inflation data 🪙 for direction on Fed policy and USD strength. 🔸 Further developments in trade tensions 🌐, which could drive risk sentiment.
Short
by ProfessorSingapore
Eurousd techinical analysis.This EUR/USD chart (1-hour timeframe) presents a technical analysis setup involving key levels, trendlines, and a forecasted bearish move. Here's a breakdown: Key Observations: 1. Descending Triangle Formation: The chart shows a descending triangle pattern formed by a downward-sloping resistance trendline (blue) and a horizontal support zone around 1.1670 (purple box). This is typically a bearish continuation pattern. 2. Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is near 1.1700, followed by a stronger resistance at around 1.1745–1.1755. These are previous support zones turned resistance after the breakdown. 3. Support Zone: Strong support around 1.1670 has been tested multiple times, indicated by the purple rectangle at the bottom. 4. Projected Move: The blue squiggly arrows suggest a potential pullback or consolidation, followed by a rejection at the descending trendline, leading to a downward breakout below the support zone. 5. Market Sentiment: The momentum is currently bearish, with recent lower highs and lower lows. The price action is respecting the trendline resistance, which strengthens the case for a downward breakout. --- Possible Scenarios: Bearish (Likely) Scenario: Break below 1.1670 → Target zones could be 1.1650 or lower, depending on volume and market reaction. Could trigger stop-losses below the consolidation zone and fuel further selling. Bullish (Invalidation) Scenario: Break above descending trendline and 1.1700 → Could challenge 1.1745–1.1755 resistance. Would invalidate the bearish triangle and suggest potential reversal. --- Conclusion: This chart suggests a bearish bias, with traders potentially looking for a short entry on a rejection from the descending trendline or a confirmed break of the 1.1670 support zone. Watch for volume confirmation and price reaction around these levels.
Short
by Rickypher
EURUSD H4 I Bearish Reversal Based on the H4 chart, the price is trading near our sell entry level at 1.1692, a pullback resistance. Our take profit is set at 1.1610, a pullback support. The stop loss is set at 1.1765, a swing high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
EUR/USD Holding the Line: Bullish Channel Setup!Hi traders! Analyzing EUR/USD on the 30-min timeframe, price is currently reacting near the bottom of a well-defined ascending channel, signaling a potential bullish continuation within the trend: 🔹 Entry: 1.17071 🔹 Take Profit: 1.17423 🔹 Stop Loss: 1.16825 After a corrective move downwards, price tapped into a key trendline support, aligning with prior structure and psychological level near 1.1700. The RSI is showing a bullish divergence near oversold levels, adding confluence to a possible reversal. As long as price holds above the lower boundary of the channel, bulls may look to target the mid-to-upper region of the range, aligning with previous highs and dynamic resistance. 🟢 The trend remains intact as long as higher lows are respected. ⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice. Every trader is responsible for managing their own risk and strategy.
Long
by FXOnTop
EURUSD 1D IDEAThis is the reason why we are so blindly short this pair while not looking at the HTF For the 1W timeframe, it completed 61.8% pullback of the closed above 50% Fib heading to 38.1% or might be higher to 26% But so far for the 1D TF, we can see will retest the fvg at 68.1% Pullback or even higher at 78% We keep looking at 1H to 4H target but don't see the high time frame Fib. This cause a lot of people losing the money. So trade wisely, this is my 1D target, CHOCH is also confirmed in the Daily chart, it will heading back to 1.80 right now or even higher at 1.10. However, if the price keep surpase 1.13, Week Fib will come into play Goodluck
Long
by JenniferForex
EUR/USD Testing Support — Will Buyers Step In Again?Hi Everyone, Since our last update, EUR/USD is currently testing the 1.16680 support level. We’re watching for buying interest to emerge above the key 1.16450 zone; if price can stabilise here, we could see a retest of the highlighted resistance area around 1.17450. Our broader outlook remains unchanged: as long as price holds above 1.16450, we continue to look for the pair to build momentum for another move higher in the coming sessions. A decisive break above last week’s high could attract fresh buying interest, paving the way for a push towards the 1.19290 area and ultimately 1.20000. We'll be watching closely to see if this recovery gains traction and whether buyers can sustain the move above resistance. The longer-term view remains bullish, provided price continues to respect the key support zone. We’ll keep updating you through the week as the structure unfolds and share how we’re managing our active positions. Thanks again for all the likes/boosts, comments and follows — we really appreciate the support! All the best for the rest of the week. Trade safe. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX