EURUSD BUY TRADE PLANEUR/USD – May 27, 2025
📋 Plan Overview Table
Type Direction Confidence R:R Status
Conditional Buy 70% 3.0+ Active Setup
📈 Market Bias & Type
* Bias: Short-term bullish retracement within a broader corrective structure
* Type: Reversal/Continuation Hybrid
* Reversal off key H4 demand
* Continuation possibility toward D1 resistance
🔰 Confidence Level: 70%
Breakdown:
* 🔹 H1: Double bottom attempt near 1.1320 (short-term demand zone)
* 🔹 H4: Strong bullish structure since May 13th, pullback respecting bullish channel
* 🔹 D1: Price is in a consolidation range; last impulsive leg was bullish
* 🔹 Momentum: RSI divergence forming on lower timeframes (bullish hint)
📍 Entry Zones
* Primary Zone: 1.1320 – 1.1330 (current market zone, price is reacting)
* Secondary Zone: 1.1300 ± 10 pips (previous consolidation base + stop-hunt area)
❗ SL with Reasoning
* SL: 1.1270
* Reasoning: Break below recent higher low would invalidate the current bullish thesis and suggest stronger downside continuation
🎯 TP1/TP2/TP3 Targets
* TP1: 1.1385 (near structure mid-range)
* TP2: 1.1435 (recent swing high – May 27)
* TP3: 1.1485 (daily resistance zone)
🧠 Management Strategy
* Initial Risk: 0.5–1%
* Scaling In: Add on confirmed H1 bullish engulfing candle with volume
* Breakeven: Move SL to BE after price closes above 1.1360 H1 structure
* Partial Close: Take 50% profit at TP1, trail remainder to TP2 and beyond
⚠️ Confirmation Checklist
* ✅ Bullish H1 price action
* ⏳ Waiting for bullish engulfing or inside bar breakout
* 🔍 Monitor during London Open / NY overlap
* 🔄 Ideally with lower wick candle formation (rejection from zone)
⏳ Validity
* H1 Setup Valid for: 12–15 hours
* H4 Structure Valid for: 48–72 hours or until SL/TP hit
❌ Invalidation Conditions
* ❌ Clean break and close below 1.1280 on H1 and H4
* ❌ Failure to form bullish structure by next London session
🌐 Fundamental & Sentiment Snapshot
* 📰 USD: Mixed U.S. data, traders cautious ahead of next week's NFP
* 🏦 ECB: Hawkish undertones remain but rate cuts in Q3 on radar
* 💬 Sentiment: Euro stable to slightly bullish against major pairs; USD pressured by soft inflation expectations
📋 Final Trade Summary
This is a conditional buy setup with decent technical confluence and moderate fundamental tailwinds. Risk is well-defined, with an asymmetric reward potential if price rebounds off the H1/H4 demand region and resumes upward movement toward D1 resistance.
