EUR/USD: Long-Term Breakout with Fundamental and Tech ConfluenceFor the first time since 2008, EUR/USD is showing signs of a potential long-term trend reversal.
The pair has broken above the descending channel that has defined the bearish structure for over 15 years.
But this is not just a technical breakout — the fundamentals support this move as well.
The U.S. dollar remains under pressure as the market shifts its rate expectations.
Instead of the 1–2 rate cuts initially priced in for 2025, forecasts now suggest 2–3 cuts, possibly more depending on the pace of economic softening.
This aligns well with the breakout we are observing on the chart.
Technical picture: confirming the breakout on all levels
1.The descending trendline from 2008 has been broken.
2.On the weekly timeframe, the price has already secured a close above this trendline, confirming the breakout structurally.
3.On the monthly timeframe, the 100-period SMA sits right at the neckline area of a large double bottom reversal pattern — adding one more layer of confirmation.
These factors are not isolated — they support and reinforce each other, creating a confluence of signals across multiple timeframes.
Target according to classical technical analysis:
The minimal target for this breakout stands at 1.2300.
This is both a major resistance zone from previous highs and approximately 70% of the height of the larger double bottom pattern — fully in line with the textbook approach to classical chart analysis.
