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Euro / U.S. Dollar

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EURUSD trade ideas

EUR/USD Wave 5 Topped? Correction Incoming to 1.076FX_IDC:EURUSD PEPPERSTONE:EURUSD OANDA:EURUSD 📈 Chart Breakdown 🔢 Elliott Impulse Wave Completed: Waves (1) to (5) appear to form a clean 5-wave impulse structure upward. Final wave (5) is diverging on the oscillator (RSI), signaling potential bullish exhaustion. 🧾 ABC Correction Expected: After the 5-wave impulse, you project an ABC corrective move: Wave A: initial drop Wave B: partial recovery Wave C: deeper move likely toward the 1.07680 support (blue horizontal line) ⚠️ Bearish RSI Divergence: The label "Div" confirms bearish divergence between price and RSI → typical at end of Wave (5). 🧠 Summary: Structure: 5-wave impulse + projected 3-wave correction Bias: Short-term bearish targeting 1.07680 Confirmation: Look for break below support or trendline + momentum shift
Short
by Trwin
2
EURUSD heads towards resistance, short-term reversal expectedEURUSD has been in a strong uptrend, and we’re currently observing price action is reaching a notable resistance zone. I am watching for a reversal here as marked on my chart, not expecting a major move, but rather a short-term rejection with a downside target at around 1.13670 , which also aligns with the POC. This is where it can become a decision point, either price finds support and bounces, or it breaks below, and that’s when we might see the move start to extend lower. If we get a decisive breakdown through that ascending trendline, my next area of interest is marked as TP2. From there we can expect either potential accumulation or another reaction, depending on broader market sentiment at the time. That said, we're navigating a complex backdrop currently: The EU macro environment is under pressure, as weak economic data from Europe is contributing to cautious sentiment around the euro. Meanwhile, a sustained USD bid continues, supported by stronger U.S. growth expectations, favorable yields, and persistent global demand. This further weighs on EURUSD. Adding to the uncertainty, escalating tensions between Israel and Iran have rattled markets this week. This geopolitical risk could be pushing oil prices higher: It’s important to note that if price convincingly rejects here and loses structure, especially with high volume and obvious bullish structure, this setup would become invalid. In that case, I would reassess and adapt
Short
by TrendDiva
36
EUR/USD Holds Above Support – Watching 1.17400 and BeyondHi Everyone, As highlighted, a successful bounce from the near-term support at 1.16680 provided a retest of the 1.17400 zone. Looking ahead, we expect price action to revisit this level in the coming week. A confirmed break above this resistance could open the path toward 1.18000, where we anticipate encountering dynamic resistance. As outlined in our analysis last week, we anticipated a continued move higher toward the 1.16564 and 1.18325 levels, provided price held above 1.14483. Price respected this level, and EUR/USD extended its rally, reaching our first key target at 1.16564 and pushing above 1.17400 — marking the highest level since February 2022. We will provide further updates on the projected path for EUR/USD should price reach this level. The longer-term outlook remains bullish, with expectations for the rally to extend toward the 1.2000 level, provided the price holds above the key support at 1.10649. We will continue to update you throughout the week with how we’re managing our active ideas and positions. Thanks again for all the likes/boosts, comments and follows — we appreciate the support! All the best for a good end to the week. Trade safe. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
2
EURUSDEUR/USD Exchange Rate EUR/USD: 1.17735 The euro has strengthened against the US dollar, trading near its highest level since early 2024, supported by a softer DXY and stable Eurozone outlook. 10-Year Government Bond Yields Region 10-Year Yield Date Eurozone 2.560% July 5, 2025 United States 4.348% July 5, 2025 The US 10-year Treasury yield remains above the Eurozone’s, but the gap has narrowed in recent months. Central Bank Policy Rates Central Bank Policy Rate Last Change/Status ECB 2.00% (Deposit Rate) Cut by 25 bps in June 2025 Federal Reserve 4.25%–4.50% Unchanged since Dec 2024 The ECB recently cut its deposit rate to 2.00% RFR 2.15% MLF 2.4%, its lowest in over two years, as inflation nears target and growth remains subdued. The Fed has held its target range steady at 4.25%–4.50% since December 2024, with markets expecting possible cuts later in 2025 on cautious wait and see approach by feds Rate and Yield Differentials Metric US Eurozone Differential (US - Eurozone) Policy Rate 4.25–4.50% 2.00% 2.25–2.50% 10-Year Bond Yield 4.35% 2.560% 1.79% Yield Differential: The US 10-year yield exceeds the Eurozone’s by 1.79 percentage points, a key driver for capital flows and EUR/USD direction ,but strong euro zone economic outlook offset the yield and bond advantage giving the euro buy advantage . Policy Rate Differential: The Fed’s policy rate is 2.25–2.50 percentage points higher than the ECB’s, though the gap is expected to narrow if the Fed cuts rates later this year. Market Implications EUR/USD: The narrowing yield and rate differentials have supported euro strength in recent weeks. Bond Markets: US yields remain higher, but the Eurozone’s 10-year yield is at a multi-year high, reflecting persistent inflation and reduced ECB accommodation. Central Bank Outlook: Both the Fed and ECB are expected to remain data-dependent, with further easing possible if economic conditions warrant. The euro is currently strong against the dollar, with narrowing rate and yield differentials reflecting shifting monetary policy expectations and global economic condition. #eurusd
Long
by Shavyfxhub
2
EUR/USD: A Perfect Storm for BullsThis is a high-conviction long setup based on a powerful combination of macroeconomic divergence and a confirmed multi-year technical breakout. The Non-Farm Payrolls report has now been released, and the resulting price dip has created what I believe is an ideal entry opportunity to align with the dominant bullish trend. The Fundamental Why 📰 NFP Aftermath: Yesterday's NFP report was a mixed bag that ultimately reinforces the case for Fed rate cuts. The headline number beat expectations, causing an initial USD rally and a dip in EUR/USD. However, the underlying details like wage growth were soft. Crucially, the market continues to price in a 96% probability of a Fed rate cut by September, a figure that was unchanged by the data. The core driver of USD weakness—a dovish Fed—remains firmly intact. Resilient EUR 🇪🇺: In contrast, the ECB has signaled it is at or near the end of its easing cycle. Economic data from core Eurozone countries is stabilizing, providing the Euro with relative strength. Risk-On Sentiment 💹: The broader market remains in a "risk-on" mood, which is typically negative for the safe-haven USD. Gold is soaring and equities are near all-time highs, confirming the anti-dollar flow. The Technical Picture 📊 The Secular Breakout 🚀: The most significant event is the breakout of a decade-long downtrend resistance line. This is a major structural shift. The pair has also achieved a monthly and quarterly close above the critical 1.1500 handle, turning a historic resistance level into a new support floor. The Impulsive Uptrend 🌊: On the 4-hour chart, the price is in a clear ascending channel. The post-NFP dip represents a healthy correction within this uptrend, bringing price back toward key support. Key Levels 🔑: Support Zone: The dip has brought price directly into the key support confluence between 1.1700 and 1.1760, making this an ideal area to enter long. Resistance Zone: Major resistance still sits at 1.1900, making it a prudent take-profit target. Strategy & Risk Management 🧠 The stronger-than-expected NFP headline has provided the exact pullback this strategy was designed for. The dip presents a prime opportunity to buy into the dominant uptrend at a more favorable price. Instead of chasing the market, we are now positioned to enter on a technically sound correction. Good luck, and trade safe! Trade Parameters ✅ Pair: EUR/USD Direction: Long / Buy 🟢 Entry Type: Limit Order Entry Price: 1.1745 Stop-Loss: 1.1685 (60 pips) 🔴 Take-Profit: 1.1895 (150 pips) 🎯 Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.5 : 1
Long
by MaxellAguiran
1
Master Your Edge: It’s Not About Just Being Right Most traders obsess over being right on every trade. But the truth is, consistent profitability doesn’t come from perfect predictions—it comes from disciplined risk management. Mark Douglas reminds us: “Trading is not about being right or wrong. It’s about how much you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.” Focus less on proving yourself right, and more on protecting your capital when you’re wrong. That’s how professionals thrive in uncertain markets. #MJTrading #TradingPsychology #MarkDouglas #ForexMindset #TraderMindset #EURUSD #TradingQuotes #ForexLife #RiskManagement #TradingDiscipline #ForexEducation #ChartOfTheDay #PriceAction #MindOverMarkets
Education
by MJElahifx
2
Elliott Wave Analysis for EUR/USD - Bullish OutlookPEPPERSTONE:EURUSD This analysis is based on the application of Elliott Wave principles for the EUR/USD market on a weekly timeframe. 💡 Wave Identification: Corrective Cycle (ABC): After a peak marked by wave B, the market completed a 5-wave downward structure (waves 1 to 5), forming wave C, signaling a possible end of the correction. Potential Reversal Zone (2/B): The current point is a strategic level where a bullish rebound is anticipated. 📊 Projection: A bullish impulse is expected from point C. The initial target lies in the 1.1140 - 1.1217 zone, corresponding to key resistance levels and Fibonacci projections. 🧠 Conclusion: A breakout above 1.0440 could confirm a significant bullish impulse, suggesting buyers are regaining control. ⚠️ Disclaimer : This analysis is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before investing.
Long
by Trwin
2
EURUSD Bullish continuation supported at 1.1640The EURUSD currency pair continues to exhibit a bullish price action bias, supported by a sustained rising trend. Recent intraday movement reflects a sideways consolidation breakout, suggesting potential continuation of the broader uptrend. Key Technical Level: 1.1640 This level marks the prior consolidation range and now acts as pivotal support. A corrective pullback toward 1.1640 followed by a bullish rejection would reinforce the bullish trend, targeting the next resistance levels at: 1.1830 – Near-term resistance 1.1900 – Minor swing high 1.1940 – Longer-term bullish objective On the other hand, a decisive daily close below 1.1640 would invalidate the bullish setup, shifting the outlook to bearish in the short term. This could trigger a deeper retracement toward: 1.1590 – Initial support 1.1530 – Key downside target Conclusion: As long as 1.1640 holds as support, the technical outlook remains bullish, favoring long positions on dips. A confirmed break below this level would signal a shift in sentiment and open the door to a corrective pullback phase. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
2
#AN014: Ursula von der Leyen No Confidence Motion, Market Crisis Hello, I am Andrea Russo, a Forex trader and today I want to focus on an explosive news that has hit Brussels in the last 24 hours: the motion of no confidence against the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen. I thank in advance the Official Broker Partner PEPPERSTONE for the support in carrying out this analysis. The fact: Motion of No Confidence in the European Parliament On July 1st, several MEPs from both conservative right and far left groups formally presented a motion of no confidence against Ursula von der Leyen, accusing her of: Non-transparent agreements with Emmanuel Macron, Opaque management of the new “Pact for Europe”, Conditioning of key appointments within the Commission and the Council and above all the violation of the democratic principle of balance of powers. Although the motion does not seem to have the numbers to pass, it represents a direct attack on the political legitimacy of the outgoing president, just when she is trying to obtain a second term. The suspicion is that this move is not so much to bring down von der Leyen, but to: Weaken her negotiating position, Force her to make political concessions and reopen the game on the strategic EU appointments 2024–2029. This internal crisis comes at the worst possible time. A crisis of internal legitimacy in this context can undermine institutional stability and slow down all the economic reforms expected by the markets. Impact on Forex 1. EUR under pressure European political risk is back in the spotlight. Even if there was no immediate shock to the euro, institutional trading rooms are already pricing in more internal instability. This translates into: Downward pressure on EUR/USD, especially if the motion receives more votes than expected (even if it does not pass). EUR/CHF at risk of retracement, as the Swiss franc is seen as a safe haven currency in the event of EU institutional crises. EUR/GBP with potential loss of strength, especially if London takes advantage of the crisis to relaunch bilateral agreements. 2. Push for safe haven currencies JPY, USD and CHF have shown anomalous movements in the last few hours: political uncertainty is pushing traders to seek safe havens. The EUR/USD futures curve also shows a slight downward revaluation. 3. Upcoming events to monitor The real threat will be if the number of votes in favor of the no-confidence motion exceeds 30–35% of Parliament → in that case, even if the motion does not pass, von der Leyen will be delegitimized. The euro, in this case, could undergo a technical correction extended up to 1.0650, especially if accompanied by weak macro data. Follow me, if you like, for other updates.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
2
EUR/USD Daily Timeframe Analysis – Bullish OutlookOn the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair shows a clear bullish bias in the long term, backed by strong upward momentum in recent sessions. 🔹 Price Action Overview: Last week, EUR/USD printed a strong impulsive move to the upside, indicating increased bullish interest and potential trend continuation. This momentum suggests that the bulls are firmly in control, at least for now. 🔹 What to Expect Next: With the impulsive leg completed, we are now anticipating a short-term retracement. Price is likely to pull back into a key demand zone, previously acting as resistance, and now potentially flipping into support. I've marked this retracement zone with a green circle on the chart, aligning with the price range: 📍 Key Trade Levels: Buy Entry Zone: 1.15900 – 1.16100 (Expecting price to react at this former resistance turned support) Stop Loss: 1.15400 (Below recent swing low to protect against invalidation) Take Profit: 1.17300 (Targeting the next significant resistance area) --- 🧠 Trade Idea Summary: This setup follows the classic "impulse–retracement–continuation" structure. As long as price holds above the retracement zone, we maintain a bullish outlook for EUR/USD. 🔔 Watch for bullish price action (e.g., pin bars, engulfing candles) within the buy zone before entering for confirmation.
Long
by enwemadufranklyn1989
2
EUR/USD technical and fundamental analysis for next 2 days.Hello Traders, This whole analysis is based on 1 hour time frame. Indicators used for technical analysis: EMA RSI VWAP anchor Volume Profile Fibonacci retracement and extension In 1 hour time frame price is forming an ascending triangle which is likely to break out as EMA, and vwap are signalling bullish momentum. If price breaks resistance at $1.17832 its likely to go up till $1.18100. RSI is in the middle so it has ample room to move in both directions, So if trend line support breaks the price might move downwards to the support level at &1.17628 but the probability of this is very low. Volume profile is highlighting the current price with the most volume so it makes it a critical point for movement in any direction. Fundamental Analysis: The Fed (US Central Bank) is getting soft: On July 9th, we'll see notes from their last meeting. They're expected to sound pretty dovish, which just means they're worried about the US economy and might cut interest rates soon. Trump's Tariffs are back (July 9th deadline): If he puts new taxes on imported goods, it makes global trade messy and creates a lot of worry about the US economy. When people worry about the US, they tend to sell US Dollars. The Dollar is already weak & It's already been losing strength. Because the US Dollar is set to get a lot weaker from those big events on July 9th, and the Euro is holding steady, the EUR/USD is very likely to tilt UP. Remember trading is a game of probability and this analysis could go wrong but technical and fundamental analysis are suggesting strong bullish movement.
Long
by Sully-X
2