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EURUSD trade ideas

Fundamental Market Analysis for May 20, 2025 EURUSDEURUSD: EUR/USD tested high levels on Monday, briefly rising to 1.1300, but then retreated slightly, although the day ended higher overall. Nevertheless, the pair remains in a short-term consolidation zone. Last Friday, rating agency Moody's downgraded the United States (US), stripping it of its latest AAA rating on Treasuries, citing the growing US debt and long-standing government budget deficits that various presidential administrations have either neglected or failed to manage effectively. While initial investor reaction was shaky, sentiment quickly stabilised and the impact on US creditworthiness was largely written off. Still, Treasury markets are struggling: On Monday, 30-year bond yields topped 5 per cent and 10-year yields topped 4.5 per cent. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have been working hard this week to manage market expectations for a possible rate cut. Fed policymakers have continually reminded investors that ongoing U.S. tariff and trade policies complicate the outlook for the national economy, which in turn affects rate adjustments. Thursday will see the release of German and pan-European purchasing managers' index (PMI) reports from HCOB, providing a double dose of business expectations surveys on both sides of the Pacific. Both the German and pan-European PMIs are expected to rise moderately. The key economic data release from the US will be the S&P Global PMI data for May, where average market expectations suggest a slight decline in both the manufacturing and service components of the PMI report due to the impact of tariffs on business spending. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1250, SL 1.1230, TP 1.1350
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
1
May it continue to rise!During the European session, EUR/USD broke above 1.1250, extending its second consecutive daily gain amid U.S. dollar weakness following Moody’s rating downgrade. UOB Group FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia noted that after days of range-bound trading, EUR rose to 1.1288 yesterday. However, the increase in momentum is insufficient to signal sustained progress. The euro must first decisively break above 1.1290 to have a chance of rising to 1.1330. Currently, the likelihood of a clear break above 1.1290 remains low, but as long as the pair holds above 1.1165, an upward move in the coming days is plausible. In the market, there are no absolutes, and neither upward nor downward trends are set in stone. Therefore, the ability to judge the balance between market gains and losses is your key to success. Let money become our loyal servant.
Long
by Ashbur
2
05/15/2025 EUR/USD - Bullish to 1.1230We begin with high time frame analysis on the daily chart to understand the market context and holistic situation of EUR/USD. As we can see, price is in an obvious uptrend with two touch points, price recently touching the SMA 50, bouncing off that moving average which is acting as a dynamic support level. Furthermore, the SMA 50 and 200 have recently crossed with the 50 moving above the 200, signaling a possible uptrend. From the image we can also see that we have a resistance level that has been touched twice in the past 8 months before beginning a significant downtrend. Moving down into the 4 hour chart we can see that price is forming a recent downtrend with successive lower highs. Eventually, price broke below that key resistance level we mentioned earlier, on high volume. Expanding further, this break resulted in price crossing the SMA 200, an event that hasn't occured in the last 67 days. The retracement of this break failed to penetrate above the SMA 50 from the downside, maintaining in line with the trendline drawn on the chart, forming a new lower high. Furthermore, the SMA 50 is just now touching the SMA 200, crossing below it, signaling a possible downtrend. Drilling down further into the 1 hour chart, we're able to identify a short term downward channel that price trades within. This channel is then broken on heavy volume, as indicated by a large red exhaustion candle, signaling selling pressure has evaporated in one big burst. Price then returns into the channel, with new buying interest pushing price out of the channel on the upside. The SMA 200 acts as a dynamic resistance zone and rejects price, pushing it further down. Price finds support at the support/resistance level that we identified on the daily chart. The breaking of this level was not broken on high volume, signaling market disinterest, rather than active selling. At this point, price is likely to trade within a channel, with the first big rally ending in an exhaustion candle, in which price quickly returned to the channel. Price will eventually continue this consolidation until touching the trendline that was drawn on the daily, while the SMA 200 continues to become lower and get closer to price. At some point a breakout will occur, but I believe consolidation will hold for some time before then. Therefore for the purposes of right now, I would say this pair is bullish, but I would not take trades now. Instead, I would wait until price reaches either end of the channel and then assess from there.
Long
by TAandFA
2
EURUSD Trade Idea – Two Scenarios to WatchPrice is currently hovering near key resistance around 1.12619. Two possible outcomes to anticipate: 🔹 Scenario 1 (Bullish): If price holds above the 1.12400–1.12600 zone, we may see continuation to the upside toward the next key resistance at 1.13199. 🔻 Scenario 2 (Bearish): If price gets rejected from this resistance zone and breaks below 1.12189, downside continuation is likely with potential target around 1.11762. 🔍 Waiting for price confirmation before taking a position. Both paths are valid — plan accordingly.
by dannyrahadian
2
EURUSD - Aggressive, Medium & Conservative Target IdeasEURUSD offers an excellent example of how a countertrend trader can take a trend continuation approach to involving themselves in a trade. After violating a previous high, the Euro has started to retrace. no despite already reaching our conservative prediction point, I do think that there is an opportunity for it to travel lower and that's what we're looking at in today's video. As we head down to the 1 Hour timeframe we can see that price action ended the week by violating and confirming a descending triangle. With price now retracing back into that previous zone of support (which should now act as resistance), there's the potential to hop on the next move down while achieving some extremely good risk/reward ratios. If you have any questions, comments, or just want to share an idea, please do so below! Akil
Short
by Akil_Stokes
2
Bearish reversal off 61.8% Fibonacci resistance?The Fiber (EUR/USD) has rejected off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 1.1265 1st Support: 1.1071 1st Resistance: 1.1367 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
1
EUR/USD Shorts to LongsMy outlook for EU mirrors GU: we may see a sell‑off develop. There’s a nearby 1‑hour supply zone I’m watching, but upside liquidity could invalidate it. A clean demand zone also awaits mitigation; once touched, it could fuel the next bullish leg. I’ll wait to see which direction price chooses first to determine which POI is hit. Confluences for EU sells are as follows: A clean 1‑hour supply that triggered a minor change of character to the downside. Asian session low and other liquidity pools sit below, inviting a sweep. Price has been in a multi‑week bearish trend. DXY structure aligns with this bearish scenario. P.S. If price pierces the supply, sweeps the upside liquidity, and breaks structure higher, I’ll look for the new demand zone that forms and reassess for potential longs.
Short
by Hassan_fx
1
DeGRAM | EURUSD rebound in the channel📊 Technical Analysis ● Strong rebound from 1.1070/channel base produced a V‑shape and broke a minor falling wedge; price is now carving higher lows above 1.1200 support. ● Room remains to the upper wedge rail / supply 1.1380, which aligns with the channel’s mid‑line; invalidation if 1.1200 fails. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● US April CPI printed 0.3 % m/m (vs 0.4 % cons) while retail‑sales missed, knocking 2‑yr yields beneath 4.70 % and weakening the USD. ● ECB hawks (Vujčić, Nagel) said cuts after June hinge on data, tempering dovish bets and underpinning euro rates. FXStreet flags fresh demand above 1.12. ✨ Summary Channel‑floor bounce + softer US data versus guarded ECB tone favour a grind to 1.1300 → 1.1380; long bias void under 1.1200. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
Long
by DeGRAM
4
Bearish drop?EUR/USD has rejected off the resistance level which is an overlap resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.1274 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level which is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 1.1373 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Take profit: 1.1084 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
1
Euro may exit from wedge and then drop to support levelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. After a strong impulse to the upside and a retest of the 1.1265 resistance area, the Euro started to consolidate inside a downward wedge. Despite repeated attempts to hold above the 1.1265 - 1.1300 zone, price action gradually shifted lower, creating lower highs within the wedge formation. This pattern often signals continuation or deeper correction, especially when formed after a large bullish move. The recent breakout below both the support area and the lower wedge boundary confirms that bearish pressure is taking control. The rejection from the seller zone and the sharp decline reinforce this shift in sentiment. Now the price is trading near the support line of the wedge and showing weak attempts to recover, forming a potential retest of the broken structure. Given the break of support, I expect the Euro may continue its decline toward the 1.0925 level, which coincides with both the buyer zone and a well-defined support level, thereby exiting from wedge pattern. This zone serves as my current TP 1. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Short
by LegionQ8
6