EURUSD BUY ANALYSIS FALLING WEDGE PATTERN Here on Eurusd price form a rising wedge pattern and now try to go up so if line 1.04422 break price is likely to move more and trader should go for long and expect profit target of 1.05733 and 1.07729 .
EURUSD trade ideas
EURUSD dropping as expected. New supply levelsThe EURUSD is dropping as expected with the strong daily supply level in control. Expecting new lows in the following hours. You can use smaller timeframe intraday Forex strategies to take advantage of it.
looking for buy positions on EURUSD#Technical_Analysis
#EURUSD-1h
I’ve marked two zones on the chart, both derived from the daily timeframe. The expectation was for the price to react to the lower support zone and move towards the upper resistance zone.
If we look at the daily EURUSD chart, we can see that yesterday the price reacted very well to this zone. Yesterday’s candle formed a long wick and failed to break the zone with its body. This reaction has turned yesterday’s low into a very significant support zone for us.
Therefore, if the price changes direction on the 4-hour timeframe, I will look for buying opportunities in the lower timeframes. My preference is for this directional change to occur below the 1.027 level.
#FarXpert
I’m looking for buy opportunities on EUR/USD in the 5-minute tim#Technical_Analysis
#EURUSD-1h
Although the daily trend is bearish, the 4-hour trend has turned completely bullish. We can consider buy opportunities up to the 1.046 resistance level. The current price zone could provide a good buying opportunity, as long as we get confirmation from the 15-minute or 5-minute time frame.
#FarXpert
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI): What Does It Tell Traders?The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI): What Does It Tell Traders?
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a widely watched economic indicator that helps traders assess the overall health of the economy via an early snapshot of business activity. Traders often use this data to analyse potential market movements across different asset classes, from equities to forex. In this article, we’ll explore what the PMI is, how it works, and why it matters for traders.
PMI Definition
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a key economic indicator that offers insight into the business conditions of the manufacturing and services sectors. It’s derived from monthly surveys sent to purchasing managers at various companies, who provide data on several aspects of their business activities. The idea is to get a snapshot of how the economy is performing based on the people making the procurement decisions. PMI data is released in various countries, including majors.
PMI is calculated by analysing five main components:
- New Orders: Measures the level of new orders received by businesses, indicating future demand.
- Inventory Levels: Looks at the stock of goods that companies have on hand, reflecting production expectations.
- Production: Assesses the output levels of companies, showing current economic activity.
- Supplier Deliveries: Tracks the time it takes for suppliers to deliver goods, which can signal supply chain conditions.
- Employment: Monitors hiring levels, providing clues about the labour market.
The PMI is reported as a number between 0 and 100. A reading above 50 suggests that the sector is expanding, while a figure below 50 indicates contraction.
There are different types of PMIs to be aware of:
- Manufacturing PMI: Focuses on the manufacturing sector and is often watched closely because manufacturing is a significant part of many economies.
- Services PMI: Covers the services sector, which includes industries like finance, healthcare, and retail.
- Composite PMI: Combines data from both the manufacturing and services sectors to give a broader picture of overall economic health.
How the PMI Is Calculated
The PMI economic indicator is calculated using survey responses from purchasing managers who report whether conditions have improved, remained the same, or worsened. Each response is assigned a score: 1 for improvement, 0.5 for no change, and 0 for deterioration. The PMI is then calculated using the formula:
PMI = (P1 × 1) + (P2 × 0.5) + (P3 × 0)
Where P1, P2, and P3 represent the percentages of each response.
PMI as a Leading Economic Indicator
The PMI is widely regarded as a leading economic indicator, meaning it often signals shifts in the economy before other data figures catch up. This is because it’s based on real-time data from purchasing managers, who have a front-row view of their companies’ supply chains and business activity.
Early Signals
The PMI often catches shifts in the economy before broader indicators like GDP can reflect them. For example, there may be a multi-month decline in the PMI index, meaning that an economic slowdown is coming, giving traders a chance to adjust their positions before the data is widely recognised.
Global Comparisons
PMI isn’t just available for one country; it’s tracked across the world. Comparing PMI data from different regions allows traders to see how various economies are performing relative to each other. For instance, if the Eurozone PMI is climbing while the US PMI is dropping, it might indicate stronger growth prospects in Europe.
Correlation with Broader Economic Trends
PMI trends are often correlated with other major indicators like GDP growth, inflation, and industrial output. For traders, this makes the PMI a useful tool to anticipate how markets might react to upcoming economic reports. If the PMI has been rising, GDP or job growth numbers are likely to follow suit, offering a way for traders to estimate upcoming economic releases.
Why the PMI Report Matters to Traders
The PMI indicator is a valuable tool for traders because it provides early insight into the state of the economy. Here’s why traders pay attention:
- Economic Sentiment: A rising PMI suggests that businesses are seeing higher demand and increasing production, which can boost confidence in economic growth. On the flip side, a falling PMI can hint at slower activity, creating caution among traders.
- Stock Market Reactions: Traders often see PMI data as a way to gauge how different markets might respond. For instance, if the PMI shows strong expansion, stock markets may react positively, especially in sectors sensitive to economic health like manufacturing or retail. Conversely, a weak PMI could lead to declines as concerns about slower growth set in.
- Currency Impact: Currencies tend to strengthen when PMI data indicates economic expansion, particularly for major economies like the US or the Eurozone. This is because higher economic activity usually leads to higher interest rates, which can make a currency more attractive to investors.
- Commodities: In commodities, a strong PMI often means higher demand for raw materials like oil and metals, while a weaker PMI could signal reduced demand.
If you’d like to see how past PMI releases have impacted markets, head over to FXOpen to explore a world of stocks, currency pairs, commodities, and more.
Interpreting the PMI in Trading
When traders look at PMI data, they’re not just interested in whether the number is above or below 50—they’re looking for trends and context. As mentioned, a PMI above 50 generally signals economic expansion, while below 50 suggests contraction, but the details matter.
Key Thresholds
While 50 is the main dividing line, traders often watch for more specific levels. For instance, if the PMI climbs above 55, it usually points to strong growth. If it dips below 45, it could indicate a deeper economic slowdown. Traders pay attention to these shifts because they can signal changes in market sentiment.
Month-to-Month Changes
It’s not just about the latest PMI reading but how it compares to previous months. For example, a PMI of 52 might still suggest growth, but if it’s down from 57 the month before, traders may see it as a warning sign of slowing momentum. Conversely, an increase over several months can signal improving conditions.
Market Reactions to Surprises
Market expectations play a huge role in how PMI data is received. If the PMI reading is significantly higher or lower than expected, markets can react swiftly. A higher-than-expected PMI might push stock prices up as traders anticipate stronger economic growth. Conversely, a lower-than-expected PMI could spark sell-offs in risky assets.
Sector-Specific Insight
Traders don’t just look at the headline PMI—they break down the numbers by sector. For example, if the manufacturing PMI is rising but the services PMI is stagnant or falling, it could mean that only certain parts of the economy are doing well. This helps traders understand which sectors might perform better in the short term.
Global Context
PMI data from major economies like the US, China, and the Eurozone can influence global markets. For example, strong US PMI data could push equities higher around the world, while weak data from China might affect commodity prices like copper or currencies like the Australian dollar.
The Limitations of Using PMI
While the PMI is a useful tool for understanding economic trends, it’s not without its limitations. Traders need to be aware of potential pitfalls when using this data in isolation.
- Sector-Specific Focus: PMI primarily covers manufacturing and services, which means it might not fully represent the broader economy, especially in economies where other sectors, like technology or agriculture, play a significant role.
- Short-Term Volatility: PMI data can be sensitive to short-term factors, such as seasonal demand fluctuations or temporary supply chain disruptions. These one-off events can distort the numbers, making it tricky to draw long-term conclusions based on a single month’s report.
- External Factors: Sometimes, external factors like geopolitical tensions or sudden policy changes can have a bigger impact on markets than the underlying economic trends reflected in PMI. It’s always wise to consider the broader context.
- Complementary Analysis Needed: Relying solely on PMI data without looking at other economic indicators, like employment figures or consumer spending, can lead to a narrow view. Therefore, it’s usually used as part of a broader economic analysis.
The Bottom Line
The PMI offers valuable insights into economic trends, helping traders analyse potential market movements across various asset classes. While not without its limitations, it's a key indicator for understanding market sentiment. For those looking to take advantage of PMI data in their trading, opening an FXOpen account provides access to more than 700 markets and low-cost, high-speed trading.
FAQ
What Does PMI Stand for in Markets?
PMI stands for Purchasing Managers’ Index. It reflects the sentiment of purchasing managers who are responsible for buying goods and services in various industries. Their responses to monthly surveys form the basis of the PMI data, meaning traders can better understand which sectors are expanding or contracting.
What Does PMI Mean in Trading?
In trading, the PMI meaning refers to the Purchasing Managers’ Index, a key economic indicator that traders use to assess the health of the manufacturing and services sectors. It helps traders gauge economic growth or contraction, which can impact asset prices like equities, currencies, and commodities.
How to Use PMI in Forex Trading?
In forex trading, PMI data is closely monitored because it provides insight into economic strength. A higher PMI typically signals economic growth, which can strengthen a currency. Conversely, a lower PMI may suggest weaker economic activity, potentially putting downward pressure on the currency.
How Does the PMI Index Work?
The PMI index is calculated from monthly surveys of purchasing managers in manufacturing and services. The data covers areas like new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventory levels. Readings over 50 demonstrate an expanding economy, while below 50 indicate a contracting economy.
What Is Manufacturing PMI?
Manufacturing PMI focuses solely on the manufacturing sector. It tracks changes in production, new orders, inventories, and more to reflect the overall health of the manufacturing industry.
What Is the Difference Between the ISM and PMI Index?
The ISM PMI index is produced by the Institute for Supply Management and focuses on the US economy, while PMI is a broader term that refers to similar indices in other regions, like IHS Markit’s global PMI.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Bearish drop?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is rising towards the pivot which lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 1.0362
1st Support: 1.0262
1st Resistance: 1.0424
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Decline in EURUSDYesterday, EURUSD continued trading lower, reaching 1,0270.
For now, the trend remains bearish, with the goal of breaking the previous low.
Tomorrow, key news for the USD is expected, which will either confirm the direction or maybe hint for a reversal.
Before the news, it's possible to see a consolidation at the current levels.
Reduce your risk and avoid rushing into new trades.
EURUSD Bearish signal activesell signal has been initiated, close half position at 1:1 and move to break even hold rest to 1:2. CCI crossed back to bearish at a high support level.
EURUSD Trading Journal Analysis WRONG and WHYEURUSD Trading Journal
Jan 8
Analysts of where I read the chart WRONG and why my analysis was incorrect.
what I noted yesterday
"I could see Price consolidate in Asia maybe London after 2 huge range days and 3 red folder for DXY in NY session. That said I suspect that Price will gravitate to the .50 where there is a H FVG and press up to the .79 H FVG and possibly the clean equal highs. "
What I failed to do realize:
1 that price had already taken out buy stops from Monday and Tuesday
2 My fib was for the session and not the range
3 parent bias is bear
4 magnet of equal lows that price did seek in the end.
Asia Jan 8 2025Okay so we had a nice little uptrend on the 1m then a change of character
WE took the short at the pivot high of 1.03176
And first tp is the target
EUR/USD entry analysis Right now im looking for a trade entry for EUR/USD just waiting for it to break in either direction based on my trend line parameters. let me know where y'all think its going im hoping it push for a long but im ready if its short.
Trading Signal for EUR/USD. Buy above 1.0253 (4/8 Murray-21 SMA)The euro is trading around 1.0285, making a strong technical correction after having reached the top of the downtrend channel at about 1.0434. Now, the euro is approaching support levels which means that consolidation is likely to occur.
If the euro bounce around 4/8 Murray in the next few hours, it could be seen as an opportunity to buy as technically, a double-bottom pattern could be formed.
If the bearish force prevails, we could expect the euro to reach the bottom of the downtrend channel at about 1.0182.
Technically, the euro is under bearish pressure. So, we believe that in case there is a technical bounce and EUR/USD consolidates below 1.0347 (21 SMA), it will be seen as a signal to sell.
The next key support is located around 3/8 of Murray at 1.0131. This level could represent a strong bottom and a good point for the euro to get a technical bounce. However, we should pay attention to 1.0253. Above this area, the euro is likely to reverse its direction.
Daily CLS, Key Level D1 OB, Bearish Structure, Model1Daily CLS, Key Level D1 OB, Bearish Structure, Model1
you are welcome to comment with your thoughts and share your charts or questions below, I like any constructive discussion.
What is CLS?
This company is trading for the biggest investment banks and central banks. They trade over 6.5 trillion daily volume. They are smart money of the all markets.
CLS operates in the specific times which will give you huge advantage and precisions to you entries. Focus on that. Its accuracy is amazing.
Good luck and I hope this educational post helps to become better trader
“Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.”
Dave FX Hunter ⚔
EURUSD LONGTERM VIEWHello fellow traders, lets see this fish catch the highest view on FX:EURUSD this idea base on fibs 2.31. the rally point reached but this low might test for only few Pips for to clear.
This is only my view. For longterm traders or swings. this might help you. lets see how this year end and the starting of 2025. Im expecting 6 months of this idea to works.
Follow for more. if this breaks the rally point then this idea invalid.
I will update once the lows being broken or the price can reach 1.02250 or break this price point.
This is not a financial advice.
Follow for more Longterm view or swing trades.
Trade against the market or trade against the most retail know.
See you next year.
This will be my Last post for this year.
Other pairs will be updated next year 2025.
Have a happy Christmas and New Year ahead.
ciaoooooo..
EURUSD POSSIBLE SELLThe market is currently testing the current Daily 0.786 Fib area. Based on 4HR TF, the market seems to be a possible reversal pattern which could lead to a possible reversal.
We could see SELLERS coming in strong should the current level hold.
Disclaimer:
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is solely intended for educational and informational purposes only.The analysis provided is based on my own view of the market. Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account.
High-Risk Warning
Trading in foreign exchange on margin entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. In this case, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and in your favor.
EURUSD in at important resistance levelAnalyzing the chart using technical indicators and price action, EURUSD is setting up for a Short possibility. Price is at a resistance level, long term CCI are bearish, Short term CCI indicated a pullback. Confirmation would be to see short term CCI return to bearish. Price is also in the premium level of the current range.
PATIENCE PAYS AND LESS IS MOREIn as much as the markets are constantly dishing out opportunities, it is not recommended to allocate risk to a trade that is not in alignment with your model. Afterall, less is more and it truly is.
In this case, there are only 3 options as traders that we all are, which is to Buy , Sell and then the last but not the least and the most important of them all, to wait.
Based on technical lens, the price of EURUSD, GBPUSD have been trending lower on since the 3rd quarter of 2024, it is only natural that price would want to form a reversal which I think the signs are about to display itself via the means of the SMT.
In the meantime, I will wait for price to confirm the SMT. If price should validate the SMT then I will be looking for longs on both EURUSD and GBPUSD. But for now, I am neutral until the market dictates it demands
EUR/USD Bearish - FOMC Release!EUR/USD trades near 1.0320 after dipping to a low of 1.0275, with recent price action reflecting a prevailing bearish sentiment driven by employment data, a cautious Federal Reserve, and concerns over potential tariff measures by President-elect Donald Trump. Technical indicators on the daily chart show accelerated declines in negative territory, suggesting the likelihood of further downside movement. In the short term, the bearish outlook remains intact as EUR/USD continues trading below all its key moving averages. The 20-period SMA has lost bullish momentum, positioning below longer-term SMAs and confirming persistent selling pressure. Meanwhile, technical indicators maintain a negative slope, signaling further potential losses. The pair experienced a sharp drop ahead of key US economic data amid reports that Trump might declare a national economic emergency to implement a broad tariff program. Despite holding near session lows, EUR/USD showed little reaction to the ADP Employment Report, which revealed that the US private sector added 122K jobs in December, below expectations of 140K. Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending January 3 came in at 201K, better than the expected 218K but lower than the previous 211K, with no significant impact on the pair’s price.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 4.25-4.5%. The decision was made in response to economic data showing solid expansion in economic activity, a labor market displaying slight easing signals, and inflation still above the 2% target. Although some Committee members considered keeping the rate unchanged as a valid option, the majority agreed that further easing was necessary to support the economy and continue reducing inflation toward the established target.
From an economic standpoint, real GDP continued to grow at a sustained pace in the fourth quarter of 2024. Inflation, as measured by the PCE (personal consumption expenditures) price index, slowed compared to the levels recorded in the previous year, though it remained elevated. Employment data indicated an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, with a slight decline in labor force participation. International indicators pointed to a slowdown in economic growth across several advanced economies and declining inflation, mainly due to lower energy prices.
From a financial market perspective, the Committee observed a degree of stability in money markets and short-term funding conditions, despite high political and economic uncertainty. Long-term Treasury yields remained stable, while the dollar appreciated against major foreign currencies, reflecting expectations of diverging monetary policies between the United States and other advanced economies.
The Committee also discussed the future path of monetary policy, indicating that if data continued to show declining inflation and an economy near full employment, it might be appropriate to further slow the pace of monetary policy interventions. However, members emphasized the need to maintain a cautious approach, considering both upside and downside risks to inflation and economic activity. Key risks highlighted included potential changes in trade and immigration policies, as well as possible geopolitical tensions that could impact global supply chains.
Finally, it was decided to proceed with the process of reducing the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS), maintaining a monthly cap on reinvestment of principal payments.
Pending SellLooks like we’ve got a fresh swing point printed across the board, signaling more downside to come. A quick glance at the four hour chart backs that up—clean and clear, no guessing needed.
Here’s the game plan: I’ll be working with the equilibrium of the daily parent candle as my entry. It’s sitting at a logical level, perfectly aligned with the narrative. Pending order’s locked in, paired with a logical stop anchored at a major price level to keep risk in check.
Now it’s all about patience. Let’s see how the market moves and if this setup delivers the goods.
SHORT EURUSDEURUSD is bearish on the daily and weekly timeframes.
EURUSD is a downtrend channel on the daily timeframe and tested and rejected the upper of the channel, Next target is to the lower of the channel at below parity.
EASIEST WAY TO GET INTO A TRADE IN 20251. Identify your htf.
2. Identify a htf bias.
3. Identify your current trading range on your htf.
4. Identify your premium or discount level.
5. Inside your premium or discount level identify your htf point of interest.
6. Wait for price to pull into your htf point of interest.
7. Pop down to a ltf where you'll observe bearish or bullish price action.
8. Wait for the buy model or sell model to play our wait fora market structure shift on the ltf.
9. Your new range will be on the ltf where there was a market structure shift which will give you a new range.
10. Mark out the range using your fibs and plot your discount or premium area.
11. Inside your ltf premium of discount level identify your ltf point of interest.
12.Enter at the poi( point of interest) inside these levels or set an entry at the retest.
