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EURUSD trade ideas

EUR/USD Weekly Charts – Decade-Long Trendline Break in PlayEUR/USD is currently trading around 1.1009, sitting right between two major trendlines: 🟢 Long-Term Bullish Support – This green ascending trendline has held since late 2022, forming a solid base for higher lows and signaling a potential macro reversal. 🔴 Multi-Decade Bearish Resistance – The red descending trendline has capped EUR/USD since the 2008 highs, forming a dominant long-term downtrend. We’re now at a critical confluence zone where these two trendlines intersect. Price has pushed just above the red resistance, hinting at a potential breakout—but confirmation is still pending. 🔍 Key Scenarios: ✅ Bullish Breakout: A sustained weekly close above the red trendline could confirm a long-term trend shift. Targets: 1.15, 1.25, and possibly 1.35+ in the coming years. ❌ Bearish Rejection: If this breakout fails, EUR/USD could drop back toward green trendline support (~1.05). A breakdown below that would reintroduce downside pressure toward 1.00 or lower.
by PipShiesty
Dollar Under Pressure from Recessionary SignalsEUR/USD climbed about 80 pips to 1.1040 on Wednesday as the dollar index slipped below 105.5, marking a second day of losses. The U.S. dollar weakened amid growing fears of recession, triggered by President Trump's sweeping tariffs. China now faces a 104% levy, with Beijing vowing to "fight to the end." Market sentiment remained cautious as trade negotiations stalled, despite Trump’s outreach to major partners. Concerns that the escalating trade war may tip the U.S. into recession have increased expectations of further Fed rate cuts, weighing on the dollar. Key resistance is at 1.1100, followed by 1.1150 and 1.1215. Support lies at 1.0900, then 1.0850 and 1.0730.
by ChartMage
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 9, 2025 GBPUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes GBPUSD: On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair broke a two-day losing streak, finding a technical bounce off the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) just north of the 1.2700 mark. Price action remains in a state of uncertainty ahead of the planned imposition of tariffs in the US, with investors maintaining a subdued outlook in anticipation of key US inflation and sentiment data due for release later this week. Overall, the week has been relatively quiet on the UK economic data front, with Tuesday providing a welcome respite from the usual deluge of geopolitical and trade headlines that have become the norm for the Trump administration in recent weeks. Nevertheless, several key policymakers from the Federal Reserve (Fed) have provided insights, cautioning that uncertainty and unintended inflationary consequences from US tariffs could complicate, rather than facilitate, the Fed's rate-cutting efforts. However, traders continue to bet that the Fed will be forced to cut rates before the end of the year, as the negative economic fallout from the same tariffs could lead the U.S. into recession. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, rate swap traders are beginning to raise hopes that the first quarter-point rate cut could come as early as May. However, most betting market participants still see a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut in July as more likely, and 100 bps or more by the end of the year. On Thursday, US consumer price index (CPI) data will be released, followed on Friday by the producer price index (PPI) and the University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment survey. This will be the latest in a series of key US inflation and sentiment data relating to the 'pre-tariff' period of 2025, which will be a key indicator for the remainder of the calendar year. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.28600, SL 1.27800, TP 1.29600
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
POTENTIAL TRADES ON THE EUR/USDEUR/USD 15M - As you can see price has recently traded beneath the low that was set before the highest high traded into the Supply Zone above, this would be considered a fractal break in structure. Now in order for us to look to get involved in this market we need to see price trade back up to set its initial high acting as an area of interest for us to enter in from. To deem a valid entry there are some things we need to see. We want price to trade in clearing the area of inefficency, one price has done that we expect that enough Supply has been introduced to flip the balance, this should cause price to break again fractally. Once we have been delivered with a fractal break in structure in and around the area that we have marked out, this is when we can begin looking to take the market short as it confirms the new bearish leg.
Short
by Lukegforex
1
EUR/USD (1-Hour Chart) Analysis **EUR/USD (1-Hour Chart) Analysis 📍 **Current Price:** - **EUR/USD:** 1.09484 - **Price Action:** Trading slightly higher (+0.13%) and nearing the apex of a symmetrical triangle pattern. **Technical Overview:** 🔺 **Chart Pattern: Triangle** - **Type:** Symmetrical Triangle (Consolidation) - **Implication:** Price is coiling up and preparing for a breakout. The direction (up/down) will be confirmed by a break above or below the triangle trendlines. 📊 **Key Moving Averages:** - **EMA 7 (short-term):** 1.09400 - **EMA 21 (medium-term):** 1.09447 - **EMA 50 (long-term):** 1.09540 ➡️ Price is currently trading **around all three EMAs**, showing indecision and consolidation within the triangle. **Volume:** - Moderate volume recently, with some increase on larger price candles. - Volume spike expected on breakout confirmation. **Levels to Watch:** - **Resistance:** 1.0960 (triangle upper boundary & above EMA50) - **Support:** 1.0925–1.0930 (triangle lower boundary) **Scenarios:** ✅ **Bullish Breakout:** - Break above triangle & EMA50 (1.0954) - Target: 1.1000+ (psychological resistance) - Trigger: USD weakness or positive Eurozone data ❌ **Bearish Breakdown:** - Break below triangle support (1.0925 area) - Target: 1.0880–1.0850 - Trigger: Strong USD or weak Eurozone sentiment **Summary:** EUR/USD is consolidating inside a triangle on the 1H chart, with price hovering around key EMAs. A breakout is likely imminent — direction depends on fundamental drivers like US data releases and overall USD sentiment. Watch closely for a decisive move outside the triangle with volume confirmation.
by TradingStar090
EURUSD Forms Triangle Just Below 17-Year Long-Term TrendlineAfter a strong rally from around 1.03 to the 1.10s, EURUSD traders now appear undecided. The white line shown is the 17-year-long trendline, which is currently acting as major resistance. However, this is not a typical short-term resistance level, it's more appropriate to focus on weekly and monthly closes around this area. Still, its presence alone is enough to give Euro bulls something to think about. For more context about long-term outlook, please check our earlier post below: In the short term, the chart has taken the shape of a descending triangle. If the TVC:DXY bounces, EURUSD may face some downward pressure. 1.0880 seems to be the support to follow for direction. Although descending triangles are typically bearish patterns, this one still has a chance to break to the upside due to supportive fundamentals. In either case, the medium- to long-term outlook for EURUSD is turning increasingly bullish.
by ftdsystem
EUR/USD SHORT IDEA – 15-Min TimeframeThis chart presents a bearish setup on EUR/USD after price tapped into a strong supply zone, aligning with previous liquidity grab and resistance levels. The trade idea anticipates a reversal from the top and a potential short entry for intraday traders. 🔸 Key Zones: 🔴 Supply Zone: Around 1.10880–1.10930, marked by the red zone. Price recently tested this area with a sharp wick rejection, indicating strong seller presence. 🔵 Resistance Line: Horizontal blue line just below the supply zone, showing a previous resistance level which aligns with the recent lower high structure. 🟡 Previous Liquidity Grab: The yellow rectangle marks a key area where price previously broke structure, collected liquidity, and reversed. It now acts as a support-turned-resistance zone. 🔻 Trade Setup: Entry: Near rejection from the supply zone (current level around 1.1056). Stop Loss: Above the recent wick highs inside the supply zone. Take Profit: Targeting previous structure lows around 1.0941, aligned with the green arrow projection. 📈 Market Structure: Price broke out impulsively and formed a rising wedge (blue trendline). Bearish divergence possible as momentum slowed down near the top. Expecting price to break the wedge downside, retest support (potential pullback), and then continue lower as per green projection. 📉 Risk-Reward Ratio: High R:R setup with favorable downside potential if confirmed by volume/price action. ⚠️ Caution: Wait for bearish confirmation such as: Bearish engulfing candle. Break and close below wedge support. Retest of broken structure before entering full position. ✍️ Published by @ansarionline – April 9, 2025
Short
by ansarionline
Markets in Flux: EUR/USD Chart Hints at BreakoutGood morning Traders, Trust you are well. Below is my analysis of the current price action on EURUSD amidst the trade war. Overview EUR/USD is trading within a descending channel, showing signs of a potential bullish breakout. Price recently rejected the 1.08115 support zone with a strong wick, suggesting buyer interest. Globally, trade tensions are escalating—President Trump reintroduced 34% tariffs on China, with China responding in kind. The EU is also planning a 25% tariff on U.S. goods, sparking further risk-off sentiment. US hinting at further extending tariff on China to 50%. Idea This analysis suggests a buy-the-dip opportunity near 1.08115, with a likely breakout toward 1.10127 and beyond. Safe havens like CHF and JPY are gaining, reflecting rising risk aversion. Despite the short-term USD strength, prolonged trade wars could eventually weigh on the dollar. Conclusion EUR/USD is gearing up for a move. I will watch for a dip to support before a bullish push around 1.08115 and 1.07689. With trade wars heating up and risk sentiment dipping, commodities and currencies are about to get spicy. Do trade with caution. Cheers and Happy trading!
Short
by Samuel124
WHY EURUSD IS BULLISH ?? DETAILED ANALYSISEURUSD has officially broken out of a clean bullish pennant pattern on the 4H chart, confirming the bullish momentum that has been building over the past week. After a sharp rally, price consolidated within a contracting range, forming the classic pennant shape. With the breakout now confirmed and price currently trading at 1.106, I’m anticipating a continuation toward the projected target at 1.143 — offering a potential 300+ pip gain in this move. Technically, the breakout is supported by increasing bullish volume, strong impulse candles, and a clear structure of higher lows. The pennant served as a healthy consolidation zone, allowing buyers to regain control before the next leg up. Price has respected support at 1.096 and is now printing bullish continuation signals with momentum indicators pointing north. Fundamentally, today’s market sentiment favors EUR strength, especially as the US dollar comes under pressure due to rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts later in the year. Inflation data in the eurozone remains sticky, supporting the ECB’s cautious stance on monetary easing. Meanwhile, weaker US labor market data and softening retail figures are weighing on dollar demand. With both technicals and fundamentals aligned, I’m expecting further upside on EURUSD. The structure is solid, the breakout is clean, and sentiment supports continued bullish flow. I’ll be holding my bias firmly bullish unless the price falls back below 1.096, which would invalidate the setup. For now, all eyes are on 1.120 short term and eventually 1.143 as the full pennant projection completes.
Long
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
1
Is China cooking USA trough selling GOV.BONDS and the Dollar? Markets Roiled by New U.S. Tariffs: 28-Hour Recap In the past 28 hours, global financial markets have reacted sharply to the U.S. implementation of sweeping reciprocal tariffs, targeting over 60 countries with adjusted rates ranging from 11% to 50%. The move, aimed at correcting persistent U.S. goods trade deficits, has rattled investor confidence and sparked fears of a global trade slowdown. Key Highlights: U.S. Stocks Dip: The S&P 500 fell 1.9%, while the Dow Jones lost over 600 points amid fears of retaliatory tariffs and rising import costs for U.S. firms. Tech Hit Hard: Tech giants with supply chains linked to Asia, particularly China (now subject to a 34% tariff), saw sharp losses. Apple and NVIDIA shares dropped 3.2% and 4.5%, respectively. Dollar Mixed: The U.S. dollar strengthened against emerging market currencies but weakened against safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, both countries also affected (24% and 31% tariffs, respectively). Commodities Volatile: Oil prices slid 2.4% on concerns over reduced global demand, while gold surged past $2,130 as investors sought shelter from market instability. EU Response: The European Union, facing a 20% U.S. tariff, announced it is "evaluating proportional measures." European stock indexes fell by an average of 1.5%. Asian Markets Plunge: Major indexes like the Nikkei and Hang Seng dropped 2.1% and 3.3%, respectively, reflecting panic over trade disruptions. Euro behaving diferently than its usual. It has many reason behind of it but I try to focus to one biggger reason: Why euro is getting stronger once we see Indexes GER30, SP500 etc getting sold ? China is dumping US Treasuries and selling the USD proceeds daily? How we can verify this? - We have a few tools altough its not realtime data but can confirm our suspition 1. Track China’s Holdings of US Treasuries Source: U.S. Treasury’s Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities report Link: home.treasury.gov → Data → Reports → TIC Data Frequency: Monthly Note: A significant drop month-over-month can indicate "dumping." 2. Monitor U.S. Dollar Flows and FX Activity Sources: SWIFT reports (used in interbank transfers) IMF’s COFER database (Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves) Bloomberg Terminal or Reuters (for real-time data) 3. Watch USD/CNY Exchange Rate Movements If China is selling off USD, this might put downward pressure on the dollar. Use platforms like TradingView, Investing.com, or Bloomberg to monitor this daily. 4. Observe China’s Balance of Payments and Reserves Source: People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Significant reductions in foreign exchange reserves or changes in asset composition may suggest reallocation from USD assets. 5. Check Daily Treasury Auctions and Secondary Market Data Platforms like the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or MarketWatch can provide insight into demand for Treasuries. Large sales or weak demand can sometimes reflect foreign selling.
by ElGatoTrade
1
EURUSD BUY TRADE PLAN🧭 EURUSD TRADE PLAN 📅 Date: April 4, 2025 🔒 Format: Institutional Swing Precision 🔖 Plan Type: Swing Buy Setup 📈 Bias & Trade Type: Bullish Reversal Continuation 🔰 Confidence Level: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (80%) 📌 Status: Monitoring for Rejection in Buy Zone 📍 ENTRY ZONES: 🟩 Primary Buy Zone: 1.0940 – 1.0965 – D1 demand zone retest – 61.8% Fibo of impulse leg – H1/H4 support shelf – Breaker block retest from previous expansion leg 🟧 Secondary Buy Zone (Deeper Tap): 1.0910 – 1.0930 – Full sweep of liquidity – Below unfilled imbalance – Closer to D1/H4 OB base ❗ Stop Loss: 1.0875 – Below structure and OB base 🎯 Take Profits: • TP1: 1.1030 (Imbalance fill + H1 resistance) • TP2: 1.1075 (D1 wick fill) • TP3: 1.1130 (Break of H4 structure high) • TP4: 1.1175 (W1 FVG reaction point) 📏 Risk:Reward: ~1:3.2 to TP3, ~1:4.5 to TP4 🧠 Management Strategy: – Entry only on bullish engulfing or reversal wick on LTF (M15–H1) – SL to breakeven after TP1 – Trail above each higher low for continuation – Exit fully if bearish engulfing on D1 near TP3/TP4 ⚠️ Confirmation Criteria: – H1 bullish engulfing or strong LTF wick – Price close above 1.0980 after tapping entry zone – MACD crossover on M30 or H1 ⏳ Validity: Next 24–48 hours 🌐 Fundamentals: – USD showing softness post-volatility spike – EUR resilient with no D1 CHoCH – US macro data pending, but technicals favored above structure 📋 Final Summary: Price has retraced sharply after last impulse leg and now probing into D1/H4 demand zones. We're watching for confirmation near the zone at 1.0910–1.0930 which could offer high-RR entry. The trade is only valid with confirmation. No blind buys.
Long
by jibkhan111
my idea about gold . during the FOMC news today april 9 2025# ✨ XAU/USD FOMC STRATEGY PLAN (April 9, 2025) ## 🔬 Fundamental Context **Event:** FOMC Minutes **Time:** 1:00 PM ET / 10:30 PM IST / 8:00 PM EAT **Market Mood:** - US-China trade tension - Inflation still a concern - Fed likely to sound cautious or hawkish **Implication:** - If hawkish: USD ↗️ = Gold ↓ (but potential fakeout first) - If dovish: USD ↓ = Gold ↗️ (bullish breakout likely) --- ## 🌐 Key Levels to Watch ### ▼ Support Zone: - **2270 - 2255** - Previous demand zone - Potential stop hunt area ### ▲ Resistance Zone: - **2310 - 2325** - Previous rejection - Breakout zone into momentum --- ## ⚖️ Trade Scenarios ### ✅ Scenario A: Hawkish Fed (USD Bullish, Gold Dips) - Wait for gold to dump into **2270 - 2265** - Watch for **M15 bullish engulfing or rejection wick** - Enter BUY: - **SL:** 2257 - **TP1:** 2298 - **TP2:** 2315 ### ✨ Scenario B: Dovish Fed (USD Weak, Gold Pumps) - Wait for **clean breakout above 2310** - Look for **pullback + bullish structure on M5/M15** - Enter BUY: - **SL:** Below pullback low (~2302) - **TP1:** 2325 - **TP2:** 2340 ### ⚠️ Scenario C: Whipsaw / Mixed News - No rush - Let the market choose direction first (wait 15–30 min) - Watch for clean structure shift or fakeouts --- ## 📊 Risk & Management - Use **tight SL** and **defined TP zones** - Risk only **0.5% – 1% per position** - Adjust position size based on SL distance - **Avoid revenge trades** if whipsaw hits --- ## 🌟 Mindset > "Wait like a monk. Strike like a sniper. Let the market come to you." Stay present. Be patient. Gold rewards clarity, not chaos.
by joackimboniface