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EURUSD trade ideas

EUR: A hawkish r-star?The European Central Bank will publish its staff revision on the neutral rate today. President Christine Lagarde said last week that r-star is “a range that does not give a guideline or a destination” and Olli Rehn added yesterday that “we should not constrain our freedom of action because of a theoretical concept”. That said, with the next couple of cuts not particularly up for debate, a lot of the action in pricing is focused on the terminal rate. The scope and timing of US tariffs would have a big say, but while markets await Trump’s move on the EU, today’s report is all markets will get in terms of terminal rate guidance, and we expect a euro reaction. Based on Rehn’s comments and the fact that r-star projections are model-based (i.e. embedding significantly higher inflation than in the past), our best guess is that today’s note will show a relatively high rate and send a hawkish signal. When adding downside risks for US payrolls, we favour a new leg higher in EUR/USD to retest the 1.044 Wednesday highs.
by AccuTrade2000
EUR/USD Market Outlook The EUR/USD pair appears bullish today leading up to the U.S. session, with potential highs in the 1.0442 – 1.0467 range. However, a bearish reversal may follow from this level. ⚠️ Market-moving news could shift this scenario, so remain adaptable. ✅ Trading Plan: 🔹 Wait for confirmation signals before initiating short positions. 🔹 Apply strict risk management to safeguard capital. 🔹 Stay updated with price action & fundamental developments to adjust strategies accordingly. 📈 Trade smart, stay disciplined! 📉
by Trade_with_Ray
EURUSD 7 Feb 2025 W6 - Intraday Analysis - NFP Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 7 Feb 2025 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Investors remain cautiously optimistic, balancing solid underlying economic data with persistent concerns over geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions. Federal Reserve Outlook: Market participants expect the Fed to maintain its cautious stance. Future monetary policy decisions will likely be data-dependent, especially as the central bank closely monitors inflation trends influenced by tariff-induced cost pressures. Global Impact: International markets are bracing for mixed outcomes. Trade tensions and the ripple effects from tariffs on major partners are expected to create uneven performance across regions, with Europe and Asia particularly in focus as they adjust to shifting supply chain dynamics. Below is an assessment of the potential impact of today's USA Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, given the prevailing market sentiment: Strong NFP Data: A robust jobs report is likely to bolster the U.S. dollar, as improved employment figures can reinforce expectations for a tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. This outcome could increase investor confidence in the domestic economy; however, given existing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties, the upside for risk assets might be tempered by renewed concerns about inflationary pressures. Weak NFP Data: A disappointing jobs report may weaken the U.S. dollar, as softer employment data could lead to expectations of a more accommodative Fed policy in the near term. This scenario might trigger heightened market volatility, with investors shifting toward safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries and gold, reflecting an amplified risk-off sentiment. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios: Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and we would expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 🔹With Today NFP, news volatility will determine for me for next week a clear direction. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to Bearish to target the Weak INT Low. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹Price reached the Weak Swing High (4H CHoCH) sweeping the liquidity and turning INT structure to bearish with iBOS. 🔹Technically on the 15m I’d expect price to continue bearish following the Bearish Swing and INT structures which aligns with the 4H Bearish INT Structure continuation to target the Weak INT Low. 🔹My concern is that the 4H Swing is Bullish, we mitigated the extreme discount and currently in the continuation to target the 4H Weak Swing High. 🔹I prefer to follow the 15m current bearish Structure till we align the 15m Swing with the 4H Swing. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is for price to continue Bearish targeting the 15m Weak Swing Low
by Amr-Sadek
2
EURUSD EUR/USD Expected Move – Elliott Wave & ICT Breakdown (📌 No Trades, Just Setup & Rules Used for Analysis) --- 📌 Elliott Wave Breakdown – Structure & Expected Path 1️⃣ Identifying the Macro Structure 📊 The larger timeframe on EUR/USD shows a corrective structure after the impulse down from 1.12x, which aligns with either: A Three-Wave (ABC) Zigzag Correction A Five-Wave Impulse with Ongoing Wave 2 Retracement 🔹 Key Considerations: ✅ If ABC correction, we are currently in Wave C towards 1.0850-1.10 before further decline. ✅ If Wave 2 Retracement, then a Wave 3 Bullish Expansion should follow. --- 2️⃣ Elliott Wave Rules Applied to Confirm This Structure 💡 Wave A: The Initial Down Move Consisted of 5 sub-waves, confirming an impulse move downward from 1.12x to 1.018. This move confirmed the start of a corrective phase or the end of a larger impulsive cycle. 💡 Wave B: The Countertrend Retracement (Current Stage) Typically retraces between 38.2% - 88.6% Fib of Wave A. In this case, the current Wave B zone is developing between 1.034 - 1.057. If B Wave is still active, it can extend up to 1.085 - 1.10 before reversal. If Wave B is complete, we are starting Wave C down to create a new low. 💡 Wave C: The Final Move Before Decision Point If we see a full ABC Zigzag, Wave C should extend to 1.0850-1.10, completing the structure. If it fails early (below 1.0680), the structure is invalid, and we re-enter bearish Wave 3 directly. --- 📌 ICT Breakdown – Liquidity, Order Blocks & Market Psychology 1️⃣ Identifying Market Structure & MSS (Market Structure Shift) 📊 The price action broke below 1.0256, indicating a bearish structure shift. 📊 However, the presence of Fair Value Gaps (FVG) & Order Blocks (OB) suggests liquidity pools that must be mitigated before the next major move. 🔹 Key Considerations: ✅ A Market Structure Shift (MSS) occurred below 1.0256, meaning a correction was needed. ✅ A Bullish FVG + Order Block at 1.0200-1.0250 supports an upward move before bearish continuation. ✅ Liquidity pools exist at 1.0570, 1.0850, and 1.10, meaning smart money may push the price higher before reversing. --- 2️⃣ ICT Rules Applied to Confirm Price Action 💡 Sell-Side Liquidity Grab Before Bullish Move Large liquidity pools sit below 1.0200. This was taken out, which suggests a fakeout before a true bullish move. 💡 Fair Value Gaps & Order Blocks for Entries Bullish Order Block (OB) at 1.0218 aligns with Wave 2 retracement. FVG between 1.028 - 1.034 suggests price must return to fill before resuming bullish. 💡 Sell-Side & Buy-Side Liquidity Traps Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) below 1.0200 was grabbed, supporting a bullish reversal. Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) exists at 1.0680, 1.0850, and 1.10, meaning price could target these zones before reversing. --- 📌 Conclusion: Why These Trades Were Chosen 📌 Elliott Wave: The ABC corrective move suggests 1.0850 is a required target before reversing. If this fails to reach 1.0850, it means we enter Wave 3 downward immediately from 1.0570-1.0680. 📌 ICT: Smart money needs to clear liquidity pools before reversing. Liquidity above 1.0850-1.10 must be taken before institutions flip the market bearish. --- 📌 Next Steps for Confirmation ✅ If Wave B extends further to 1.085-1.10, we wait for reversal signs at those levels. ✅ If Wave B has already completed, we monitor for early rejection at 1.0570-1.0680 for a short setup. --- 🚀 This is the combined Elliott Wave & ICT move logic for EUR/USD.
Long
by HuntingTraps
EUR/USD Trade Idea: Potential Short Setup 📊 Pair: EUR/USD 💡 Trade Bias: Bearish • Sell Entry: Around 1.04611 • Take Profit (TP): 1.02118 • Key Level (IDM): 1.04344 🎯 Plan: Currently, the 30M CHoCH has confirmed bearish intent. Waiting for price to mitigate the 30M order block, then dropping to the 5M timeframe for a CHoCH flip and refined entry. • Confirmation: Liquidity sweep and strong bearish momentum on the 5M after mitigation. 🚨 Note: Patience is key. Entries are approximate and depend on mitigation and structure flip. Bless Trading!
Short
by Juicemannn
1
EUR/USD – Bullish Wave & Invalidation ZoneEUR/USD – Bullish Wave & Invalidation Zone 🚀 Hello traders! 👋 This is an updated Elliott Wave analysis for the EUR/USD market. Based on the weakness of DXY, I am sharing an aggressive bullish idea. However, if the price fails to break key levels and forms a corrective structure, it could indicate USD strength, leading to a bearish reversal. 🔹 Bullish Scenario (Aggressive Idea) If the market confirms bullish price action and breaks out of the top channel, we can anticipate a wave C impulse, targeting 1.12523 (first range) and potentially 1.19160 (extended range). 🔹 Conservative Approach A confirmed breakout with price action alongside a corrective structure will strengthen this scenario. Historically, in Wave A, we saw two 1-2 setups before a third-wave impulse, and history may repeat itself. 🔻 Key Invalidation Level: $1.01763 If the price fails to break resistance and moves downward, this analysis will be invalidated, signaling USD strength and a bearish market shift. 💬 What’s your view on this scenario? Let’s discuss in the comments! 👇
Long
by Mehdi_Abbasi_EWP
2
Bullish bounce?EUR/USD is has bounced off the support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could rise from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.0354 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 1.0290 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 1.0455 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
UPDATE ON EUR/USD TRADE & ANALYSISEUR/USD 1H - As you can see price has now broken structure to the upside, giving us the confluence to suggest that this market is going to put in further bullishness now moving forward. In order for us to get involved in this market now we need to wait patiently for price to pullback trading into the area of Demand I have gone ahead and marked out, we can expect this to take place as price needs to set a higher low. The aggressive entry is running + 35 pips. (+ 2.3%) 2.3RR Once price trades down and into this area of price we can either wait for price to break structure fractally to the upside again before entering or just place a pending order in an around the zone to be activated once price trades in. You will see above I have a position already marked out, I will leave the details to that below. Any questions drop me a message or comment below!
Long
by Lukegforex