EURUSD H1 I Bearish Reversal Based on the H1 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 1.1778, a pullback resistance.
Our take profit is set at 1.1758, an overlap support.
The stop loss is set at 1.180, a swing high resistance.
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EURUSD trade ideas
Mastering Risk Management: The Trader’s Real EdgeYou’ve all heard it,
“Cut your losses and let your winners run.”
Simple words — but living by them is what separates survivors from blown accounts.
Here’s some tips on how to approach risk management when trading:
☑️ Risk is always predefined: Before I click Buy or Sell, I know exactly how much I’m willing to lose. If you don’t define risk upfront, the market will do it for you.
☑️ Position sizing: Never risk more than 1–2% of your account per trade. Small losses mean you can keep taking high‑probability setups without fear.
☑️ Always use a stop‑loss: No stop? You’re not trading — you’re gambling.
☑️ Stop‑loss discipline: Place stops where the market proves you wrong — not where it “feels comfortable.” Then leave them alone.
☑️ Focus on risk/reward, not win rate: A 40% win rate can still be profitable if your average reward outweighs your risk.
☑️ Risk/reward ratio: Only take trades with at least a 2:1 or 3:1 potential. You don’t need to win every trade — your winners should pay for your losers (and more).
Remember:
“It’s not about being right all the time. It’s about not losing big when you’re wrong.”
Risk management won’t make your trades perfect — but it will keep you trading tomorrow.
And in this game, staying in the game is everything.
💭 How do you handle risk in your trading? Drop your strategy or tip in the comments — let’s share and learn together! 👇
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All the best for a good week ahead. Trade safe.
BluetonaFX
EUR/USD Rally Pauses Near 1.18000 – Higher Targets in SightHi Everyone,
Last week, price action delivered the 1.18000 level we had been calling for, and as expected, dynamic resistance around that area proved to be significant.
Looking ahead, we anticipate EUR/USD will continue to test the 1.18000 level this week while holding above the 1.16680 support zone. A strong break above last week’s high could attract further buyers, paving the way for a move towards the 1.19290 and ultimately the 1.20000 levels. We’ll share further updates on the projected path for EUR/USD if price breaks above this level.
The longer-term outlook remains bullish, with expectations for the rally to extend towards the 1.2000 level, provided the price holds above the key support at 1.10649.
We will continue to update you throughout the week with how we’re managing our active ideas and positions. Thanks again for all the likes/boosts, comments and follows — we appreciate the support!
All the best for a good end to the week. Trade safe.
BluetonaFX
EUR/CAD: Long. Is this a "loonie" trade?Hello traders
Clarification: CAD is also referred to as the loonie, a former Canadian one dollar coin.
The 50 base point cut by the BoC was expected. The CAD strengthened against the USD and CAD immediately afterwards. Classic knee jerk reaction of buy the rumor, sell the news.
Both EUR/CAD and EUR/USD have found support on the 4H chart.
The EURO has been on the backfoot against the USD but with the ECB rate decision in less than 24 hours, I have taken a long EUR/CAD position.
The ECB is expected to cut by 25 base points which will still give the CAD a slight advantage. However, the Canadian forward guidance points to more rate cuts to stimulate consumer spending, albeit more gradually/25 points at a time.
This leaves the ECB's forward guidance to cement this idea.
IF Ms. Lagarde once again expresses concern about inflation moving forward, the EURO may appreciate across the board.
Fundamentally the Euro Zone needs this rate cut. The economic conditions are not great at the moment.
That leaves the FOMC next week and also the BOJ to provide us with more forward guidance. Once this is out of the way, we'll have a much better idea what to expect in 2025, bar some more geopolitical unrest or other major market moving event.
Best of luck, all.
The EUR/JPY is also some upside promise but keep in mind, the JPY marches to its own drummer.
DXY is also retreating
EUR USD Elliott Wave AnalysisHello friends
We are witnessing the formation of a complete Elliott wave pattern on the EURUSD chart. These waves from 1 to 5 are quite clear and you can even count their subwaves. Now wave 5 is completing . With the breakdown of the trend line drawn below and a pullback to it, we can expect the price to fall to the specified support. The first support is 1.12000and then 1.10000.
Good luck and be profitable.
Bigger correction down for EUHi traders,
Last week EU came into the Weekly FVG and started a correction down from there.
Next week we could see another move down to finish the bigger correction.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for the finish of the correction up and a change in orderflow to bearish on a lower time frame to trade shorts.
If you want to learn more about trading with FVG's, liquidity sweeps and Wave analysis, then make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
Setup Forming 15M EURUSD Sells EURUSD
4H chart currently indicates lower prices to me (even though daily is pointing bullish)
15m I am looking for price to break the MSS, when it breaks I’ll be looking at how it broke, does it have a FVG or not?
If it does then this is a A+ setup, with entry on the breaker and FVG, aiming for a 1/2 RR towards the 4H target. If the TP is past the level, I’ll adjust my tp to a minimum of 1/1 risk to reward.
EURO - Price can continue to grow inside rising channelHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
The price traded in a flat range between $1.1500 and $1.1750 for an extended period, testing both extremes multiple times with low volatility and indecision.
A breakout above $1.1750 initially looked promising but turned into a fakeout when sellers quickly pushed the price back below $1.1725, trapping aggressive longs.
After that shakeout, buyers regained control and propelled EUR into a rising channel, marked by higher highs and higher lows since the end of June.
Price has since respected the lower boundary of this rising channel near $1.1725–$1.1750, using it as reliable support for continued gains.
With two confirmed breakouts and the channel structure intact, bullish momentum suggests the pair can extend its move higher within the channel.
I expect Euro to continue climbing toward the next key resistance at $1.1980, where the upper channel line and structural supply zone converge.
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EUR/USD Weakens After Rising Wedge BreakdownAfter forming a rising wedge at the top of the upward channel, EUR/USD has broken to the downside. The price is now trading below 1.17813 and struggling to reclaim previous support zones.
The break of the wedge and failure to hold above 1.17813 may indicate more downside pressure.
EUR/USD – Smart Money Trap at 1.18? Massive Rejection Ahead 1. Technical Context
The pair has been moving inside a well-defined bullish channel since May, forming higher highs and higher lows. Price is currently hovering around 1.1718, approaching the upper boundary of the channel and a key weekly supply zone (1.1750–1.1850).
➡️ Potential scenario:
A short bullish extension toward 1.1780–1.1820 to trigger stop hunts, followed by a bearish rejection toward 1.1500, and potentially 1.1380.
The daily RSI is overbought (>70), suggesting a likely short-term correction.
2. Retail Sentiment
80% of retail traders are short, with an average entry around 1.1318.
This signals a liquidity cluster above current highs, increasing the likelihood of a fake bullish breakout followed by a sell-off.
➡️ Contrarian insight: Retail heavily short → market may push higher first to wipe them out before reversing lower.
3. COT Report – USD Index (DXY)
Non-commercials (speculators) increased their short exposure on USD (+3,134).
Commercials cut their short positions (-1,994), indicating a potential bottoming on the dollar.
➡️ Conclusion: USD strength could return soon → bearish pressure for EUR/USD.
4. COT Report – EUR FX
Non-commercials increased longs on EUR (+2,980) and sharply reduced shorts (-6,602) → market is now heavily net long.
Commercials remain net short (581,664 vs 417,363 longs).
➡️ Over-leveraged spec longs → vulnerable to downside squeeze if macro sentiment shifts.
5. Seasonality
June tends to be mildly bullish for EUR/USD.
July historically shows even stronger upward performance over the last 5–10 years.
➡️ Shorts are high risk in the very short term, but a bearish setup is likely in the second half of July, especially if price action confirms.
6. Trading Outlook
📍 Short-Term Bias: Neutral to bullish toward 1.1780–1.1820
📍 Mid-Term Bias: Bearish on rejection from supply area and break of channel
🎯 Key Levels:
1.1780–1.1850: critical decision zone (liquidity + weekly supply)
1.1500: first key support
1.1380: next downside target (demand zone + previous POC)
📌 Final Conclusion
The most likely play is a short setup from 1.1780–1.1850 on strong rejection, supported by:
Extreme retail positioning (80% short),
COT pointing to USD recovery,
Extended technical structure,
Overbought RSI on the daily chart.
EURUSD: overboughtFriday was a non-working day in the US, as the country was celebrating Independence Day. The most important weekly macro data was related to US jobs data. At the start of the week JOLTs job openings in May were posted with a figure of 7.769M, significantly higher from market estimate of 7,3M. The next day the NFPs and Unemployment rate was published. As per data, the unemployment rate dropped by 0,1pp to the level of 4,1%, which missed market expectations of 4,2%. The Non-farm payrolls in June added 147K new jobs, again better from forecasted 110K. The average hourly earnings were higher by 0,2% in June, or 3,7% on a yearly basis, modestly below the forecasted 3,9%. Other weekly macro data including ISM Manufacturing PMI in June reached 49,0 a bit higher from estimated 48,8. The ISM Services PMI in June was standing at 50,8 in line with market estimates.
Retail Sales in Germany dropped by an additional -1,6% in May, bringing the indicator to the level of +1,6% on a yearly basis. Both figures were lower from the market estimate of +0,5% for May and +3,3% for the year. Inflation rate in Germany preliminary in June was 2% a bit lower from forecasted 2,2%. Inflation for the month was standing at 0%. Preliminary inflation data for the Euro Zone in June was 0,3% for the month and 2% for the year. EuroZone core inflation was standing at 2,3% in June, exactly in line with market estimates. The unemployment rate in the Euro Zone in May was modestly increased by 0,1pp to the level of 6,3%, while the market was expecting to remain flat at 6,2%.
The US Dollar continued its decline against the euro during the previous week. The highest weekly level was at 1,1825, but the currency pair closed the week at 1,1776. The RSI reached the level of 73, signalling a clear overbought market side, increasing the probability of a short term reversal in the coming period. The MA50 continues to diverge from MA200, indicating low probability of a potential cross in the future period.
The eurusd daily chart is showing that the currency pair had formed a sort of channel with an uptrend during the past period. If lows from end of February, mid March and end of March are connected, the indication for a next potential level of eurusd might be somewhere above the 1,16 level. The 1,1620 was the highest level achieved in mid July this year, which aligns well with the previous indication. Indicators are currently showing higher probability of a short term reversal. The week ahead is not bringing any currently significant news with respect to the US economy, in which sense, it could be expected that the market will slow down a bit during the week. Short reversal is quite possible, where the level of 1,1620 might be shortly tested. Just in case that the market decides to continue movement toward the higher grounds, then 1,18 resistance will be tested, before the market continues its road toward the 1,19 level.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: Industrial Production in May in Germany, Retail Sales in the Euro Zone for May, Balance of Trade in Germany in May, Inflation rate final for May in Germany,
USD: FOMC Meeting minutes.
EURUSD: Support & Resistance Analysis For Next Week 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Here is my recent structure analysis and important
supports and resistances for EURUSD for next week.
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
EURUSD: New-Week Technical Bias (Market Open)Multi-Timeframe Structural Outlook:
Higher Timeframes (Monthly, Weekly, Daily):
Market structure remains in a clear Ascend Sequence, reflecting an intact Buy-Side Bias Environment (BBE). Price action continues to build bullish structure, supporting an overall upward lean.
Lower Timeframe Technical Snapshot:
4H & 1H:
Current price consolidates within a well-defined Value Compression Phase (VCP) between 1.8297 – 1.7078, signaling temporary indecision and mixed short-term directional clarity.
Liquidity Mechanics & Trap Dynamics:
Recent Sweep Event targeting 1.7470 exploited a Trap Vector (TV), drawing price below perceived support to tap into underlying liquidity pockets within both a Price Inefficiency Zone (PIZ) and Bid Accumulation Zone (BAZ). Following this engineered sweep, price reversed, validating hidden bullish intent beneath the range.
Order Clustering Targets:
Expect clustered liquidity and potential price magnet zones at 1.8097 and 1.8192, representing logical upside attractions aligned with orderflow objectives.
Reaction Points:
VCP High (1.8297):
Break and sustained acceptance above signals potential Ascend Sequence continuation and broader bullish resumption.
VCP Low (1.7078):
Breakdown with intent below increases probability of a Trend Signature Shift (TSS), signaling bearish structure vulnerability and potential trend deterioration.
Summary:
Bullish on HT structures remains valid, but short-term bias is mixed pending confirmed resolution of the VCP range boundaries. Price behavior at the highs/lows of the compression zone will dictate next directional conviction.
EURUSDEUR/USD Exchange Rate
EUR/USD: 1.17735
The euro has strengthened against the US dollar, trading near its highest level since early 2024, supported by a softer DXY and stable Eurozone outlook.
10-Year Government Bond Yields
Region 10-Year Yield Date
Eurozone 2.560% July 5, 2025
United States 4.348% July 5, 2025
The US 10-year Treasury yield remains above the Eurozone’s, but the gap has narrowed in recent months.
Central Bank Policy Rates
Central Bank Policy Rate Last Change/Status
ECB 2.00% (Deposit Rate) Cut by 25 bps in June 2025
Federal Reserve 4.25%–4.50% Unchanged since Dec 2024
The ECB recently cut its deposit rate to 2.00% RFR 2.15% MLF 2.4%, its lowest in over two years, as inflation nears target and growth remains subdued.
The Fed has held its target range steady at 4.25%–4.50% since December 2024, with markets expecting possible cuts later in 2025 on cautious wait and see approach by feds
Rate and Yield Differentials
Metric US Eurozone Differential (US - Eurozone)
Policy Rate 4.25–4.50% 2.00% 2.25–2.50%
10-Year Bond Yield 4.35% 2.560% 1.79%
Yield Differential: The US 10-year yield exceeds the Eurozone’s by 1.79 percentage points, a key driver for capital flows and EUR/USD direction ,but strong euro zone economic outlook offset the yield and bond advantage giving the euro buy advantage .
Policy Rate Differential: The Fed’s policy rate is 2.25–2.50 percentage points higher than the ECB’s, though the gap is expected to narrow if the Fed cuts rates later this year.
Market Implications
EUR/USD: The narrowing yield and rate differentials have supported euro strength in recent weeks.
Bond Markets: US yields remain higher, but the Eurozone’s 10-year yield is at a multi-year high, reflecting persistent inflation and reduced ECB accommodation.
Central Bank Outlook: Both the Fed and ECB are expected to remain data-dependent, with further easing possible if economic conditions warrant.
The euro is currently strong against the dollar, with narrowing rate and yield differentials reflecting shifting monetary policy expectations and global economic condition.
#eurusd
EUR/USD technical and fundamental analysis for next 2 days.Hello Traders,
This whole analysis is based on 1 hour time frame.
Indicators used for technical analysis:
EMA
RSI
VWAP anchor
Volume Profile
Fibonacci retracement and extension
In 1 hour time frame price is forming an ascending triangle which is likely to break out as EMA, and vwap are signalling bullish momentum.
If price breaks resistance at $1.17832 its likely to go up till $1.18100.
RSI is in the middle so it has ample room to move in both directions, So if trend line support breaks the price might move downwards to the support level at &1.17628 but the probability of this is very low.
Volume profile is highlighting the current price with the most volume so it makes it a critical point for movement in any direction.
Fundamental Analysis:
The Fed (US Central Bank) is getting soft: On July 9th, we'll see notes from their last meeting. They're expected to sound pretty dovish, which just means they're worried about the US economy and might cut interest rates soon.
Trump's Tariffs are back (July 9th deadline): If he puts new taxes on imported goods, it makes global trade messy and creates a lot of worry about the US economy. When people worry about the US, they tend to sell US Dollars.
The Dollar is already weak & It's already been losing strength.
Because the US Dollar is set to get a lot weaker from those big events on July 9th, and the Euro is holding steady, the EUR/USD is very likely to tilt UP.
Remember trading is a game of probability and this analysis could go wrong but technical and fundamental analysis are suggesting strong bullish movement.