EUR/USD H1 03/12/2024 – Key Levels 1.04950 & 1.05250Consolidation Likely Before Breakout – Key Levels 1.04950 & 1.05250
Daily (D1) Chart
Key Observations:
Price is currently trading below the 200 SMA (long-term bearish trend).
The Ichimoku Cloud suggests bearish sentiment, with price under the cloud and the Tenkan-sen below the Kijun-sen.
RSI (39) indicates bearish momentum, but it's not yet oversold.
The MACD shows a weak bearish crossover, confirming a lack of bullish strength.
Price is consolidating between 1.04950 (support) and 1.05250 (resistance).
Conclusion: The D1 timeframe reflects a bearish bias unless there is a strong breakout above 1.05250.
4-Hour (H4) Chart
Key Observations:
Price has been rejected multiple times at the 1.05250 resistance, with the 200 EMA above current levels acting as a strong resistance zone.
Stochastic Oscillator (27) indicates oversold conditions, signaling potential short-term buying pressure.
RSI (48) is neutral, leaning toward bearish.
The MACD is flat, showing indecision.
ATR is low, suggesting limited volatility.
Conclusion: A break of 1.05250 would require strong bullish momentum, but failure to breach could push prices lower toward 1.04500.
1-Hour (H1) Chart
Key Observations:
Price is trading just under the Ichimoku Cloud, signaling short-term bearishness.
Stochastic Oscillator (55) suggests mild bullish pressure, but it's losing strength.
MACD is slightly positive but flattening, indicating indecision.
The 1.05250 level remains a key intraday resistance, while 1.04950 is the immediate support.
Conclusion: The H1 chart suggests consolidation with potential for a breakout. A move below 1.04950 could lead to a bearish continuation, while a break above 1.05250 might fuel short-term bullish momentum.
30-Minute (M30) Chart
Key Observations:
Price has bounced off the 1.04950 support, forming minor bullish candlesticks, but resistance at 1.05250 remains firm.
Stochastic is overbought (81), signaling limited upside potential in the short term.
MACD is flattening, confirming consolidation.
ATR is still low, hinting at range-bound movement.
Conclusion: The M30 chart aligns with a short-term consolidation outlook unless we see a decisive breakout.
Key Levels to Watch
Resistance:
1.05250 (Short-term resistance).
1.05750 (Next upside target).
Support:
1.04950 (Immediate support).
1.04500 (Next downside target).
Strategy for trade entries
Buy Stop Setup (Bullish Scenario):
Entry Price: 1.05300 (above resistance).
Stop-Loss: 1.05100 (20 pips below entry).
Take-Profit: 1.05750 (45 pips above entry).
Sell Stop Setup (Bearish Scenario):
Entry Price: 1.04850 (below support).
Stop-Loss: 1.05050 (20 pips above entry).
Take-Profit: 1.04450 (40 pips below entry).
