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EURUSD trade ideas

EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W18 D2 Y25EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W18 D2 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Weekly order block rejection ✅Daily order block rejection ✅Intraday 15' order blocks ✅Tokyo ranges to be filled 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
1
EUR/CAD Short, USD/JPY Neutral, AUD/JPY Neutral and EUR/USD LongEUR/CAD Short Minimum entry requirements: • If structured 1H continuation forms, 1H risk entry within it. USD/JPY Neutral Minimum entry requirements: • 1H impulse down below area of value. • If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it. • If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it. Minimum entry requirements: • If structured 1H continuation forms, 1H risk entry within it. AUD/JPY Neutral Minimum entry requirements: • 1H impulse down below area of value. • If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it. • If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it. Minimum entry requirements: • If structured 1H continuation forms, 1H risk entry within it. EUR/USD Long Minimum entry requirements: • 1H impulse up above area of interest. • If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it. • If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
by StewySongs
EURUSD - CONSOLIDATION TO MANIPULATION?OANDA:EURUSD is currently going through consolidation on daily time frame, i expect price to manipulate a little by taking out the relatively equal lows below to tap into the weekly and daily fair value gap below around 1.12000 price level as illustrated in the chart attached. Overall, my bias on EURUSD still remain bullish until the weekly time frame shift market structure to bearish. Monthly bullish, weekly bullish, now I will wait for daily to correct and turn bullish back for me to take a trade.
Long
by Elijahenoch7
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 2, 2025 EURUSDThe EUR/USD pair attracted moderate buying interest during the Asian trading session on Friday and demonstrates a desire to consolidate above the psychologically important level of 1.13000. At the moment, spot quotes seem to have broken a three-day series of declines, reaching a two-week low near 1.12650, recorded on Thursday, amid repositioning of market participants awaiting the publication of key macroeconomic indicators from the Eurozone and the United States. Representatives of the European Central Bank (ECB) earlier expressed concern over the risks of lower inflationary pressures in the region. In this regard, market participants are waiting with special attention for the preliminary data on the consumer price index (CPI) in the eurozone. Indicators that turned out to be lower than forecasts may strengthen expectations of the ECB key interest rate reduction by 25 basis points following the results of the meeting in July. Such a development could put pressure on the single European currency and contribute to the resumption of the EUR/USD corrective movement from the level of 1.1575 - the maximum since November 2021, recorded last month. In the United States of America, investors' attention is focused on the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls report (NFP), according to forecasts of which the US economy could create only 130 thousand new jobs in April, which is significantly lower than the March value of 228 thousand. At the same time, the unemployment rate, according to preliminary estimates, will remain at 4.2%. These data may have a significant impact on expectations of further monetary policy steps by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which, in turn, will affect the dynamics of the US dollar and determine the short-term trajectory of EUR/USD. Additionally, the persistent expectations of a looser monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) restrain the potential for strengthening of the US dollar, despite its three-day rise to local highs. In particular, market participants have increased expectations for four 25 basis point interest rate cuts before the end of this year, after recently released statistics pointed to an unexpected contraction in US GDP - for the first time since 2022. As a result, the dollar bulls' positions remain limited, which provides support to the EUR/USD pair. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.13100, SL 1.27500, TP 1.14200
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EUR/USD: Awaiting break below 1.1260EUR/USD has pulled back from the strong resistance level at 1.15 and is now trading around 1.13. For a confident continuation of the downtrend, a break below the 1.1260 level is required. Could consolidation and a subsequent rebound occur at current levels? Yes, it's possible. Therefore, a position should only be opened after a confirmed break to the downside. 📝Trading plan: Open a short position upon a break below 1.1260. The target is 1.10.
Short
by kventinka
EURUSD H4 I Bearish Reversal Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 1.1313, which is a pullback resistance. Our take profit will be at 1.1144, a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibo retracement. The stop loss will be placed at 1.1473, a pullback resistance level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com/uk): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com/en): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
US Dollar is taking revenge, time to short EURUSDWeekly chart , price action breaks above 1.121, 4th attempt since the inception at 28 Feb 2022. Day chart tells us profit taking/shortists are in town from the two red candles on 22 and 23 April. It has since gone south , forming lower high. Zooming into the 4H chart, we see a nice bearish candle forming and if it breaks the yellow dotted line, it is likely to revisit 1.131 target. IF you are more conservative, you can set your SL higher (around 1.139). When this trade is halfway active, you can Short once more and set your target further down 1.126. Please make sure to set your SL to breakeven on the first trade before you exercise your 2nd trade to protect your profits. As usual, please DYODD
Short
by dchua1969
EURUSDEUR/USD Interest Rate Differential and Fundamental Outlook for May 2025 Interest Rate Differential The European Central Bank (ECB) has been easing monetary policy, cutting key rates by 25 basis points in April 2025 to a Main Refinancing Operations Rate of 2.4% and Deposit Facility Rate of 2.25%. This marks the sixth consecutive rate cut as inflation in the Eurozone moves toward the ECB’s 2% target. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has kept the federal funds rate steady at 4.50% as of March 2025, with expectations of only two rate cuts during 2025 amid persistent inflation and solid economic growth in the US. This results in a significant interest rate differential favoring the US dollar, with the Fed rate roughly 2 percentage points higher than the ECB’s main rate. Fundamental Data and Events in May 2025 Eurozone Economic Growth: The Eurozone showed better-than-expected growth of 0.4% in Q1 2025, supported by strong domestic demand, but downside risks remain due to trade uncertainties and slowing global demand. Inflation: German headline inflation eased to 2.1% in April, while France’s inflation remained steady at 0.8%. The ECB expects inflation to return to target by year-end, justifying continued easing. US Economy: The US economy contracted unexpectedly by 0.3% annualized in Q1 2025, partly due to import spikes ahead of tariffs. Non-farm payrolls and unemployment data in early May will be closely watched for Fed policy signals. Trade Optimism: Growing optimism about easing US trade tensions with India, Japan, South Korea, and China has supported the US dollar recently, limiting EUR/USD upside. ECB Guidance: The ECB remains data-dependent and cautious, refraining from committing to a fixed rate path amid “exceptional uncertainty,” largely related to trade policies. EUR/USD Directional Bias for May 2025 Factor Impact on EUR/USD ECB rate cuts and easing bias Bearish for EUR Fed’s higher rates and fewer cuts Bullish for USD Eurozone modest growth and easing inflation Mild support for EUR, but limited US economic contraction and trade optimism Mixed; weak US data could support EUR temporarily Trade tensions easing Supports USD strength, weighing on EUR/USD Overall Bias: The interest rate differential and Fed’s relatively hawkish stance favor the US dollar, exerting downward pressure on EUR/USD in May. Despite some positive Eurozone data, the ECB’s easing and trade optimism supporting the dollar suggest EUR/USD will likely trade sideways Summary The Fed’s 4.50% rate vs. ECB’s 2.4% rate creates a strong yield advantage for the US dollar. The ECB’s continued easing cycle contrasts with the Fed’s cautious but higher rate stance. Eurozone growth and inflation are improving but remain fragile amid trade uncertainties. US economic data and trade deal developments in May will be key drivers. EUR/USD is expected to face selling pressure or consolidation around demand floor , with downside risks if US data remains resilient.
by Shavyfxhub
EURUSD...4H Chat pattren You're suggesting a **EUR/USD long (buy) position** at **1.1288**, with a target of **1.1768**, which implies a **480 pip** upside move. Here are some key points to consider: --- ### 📊 **Trade Analysis:** **1. Risk/Reward Profile (R/R):** - Entry: 1.1288 - Target: 1.1768 - Potential gain: **+480 pips** Make sure you define your **stop loss**—for example: - SL at 1.1188 (100 pip risk) → **R/R = 4.8:1** (very favorable) - SL at 1.1238 (50 pip risk) → **R/R = 9.6:1** (even better, but tighter stop) **2. Technical Levels:** - 1.1280–1.1300: Recent resistance zone turned support? - 1.1760–1.1800: Major resistance last seen mid-2021–2022 **3. Fundamentals to Watch:** - **ECB vs. Fed policy divergence** — any dovish/hawkish surprise from either central bank could affect this. - **Eurozone data** (GDP, CPI) and **U.S. data** (NFP, inflation, rate expectations) will likely play key roles. - **Geopolitical tensions or risk appetite** can also influence the EUR. --- ### ⚠️ **Risks to Manage:** - Tight U.S. monetary policy could cap EUR/USD gains. - Any EU political instability or weak economic data could send EUR lower. - Be aware of key **news events** — like NFP or ECB meetings — that could cause spikes.
Long
by Money_Magnet5
EUR/USD – Technical Outlook & Strategic Projection (May 1–17) 📉 EUR/USD – Technical Outlook & Strategic Projection (May 1–17)** Since **April 20th**, the euro has shown a consistent decline in strength against the US dollar, reflecting a sustained bearish sentiment. However, the current market structure suggests a potential **short-term bullish retracement** in the coming days — possibly lasting through the end of this week. This short-lived upside move is likely driven by the market's need to **seek liquidity above recent highs**, particularly near the **Previous Weekly High (PWH)** and the nearby imbalance zone (FVG). From my perspective, this setup may act as a **liquidity sweep** before resuming the broader bearish trend. 📌 **My Outlook:** - A temporary euro recovery may occur as price revisits the 1.14500–1.15688 zone. - Around **May 6th onwards**, I expect bearish continuation as liquidity objectives are fulfilled. - If price confirms rejection from the premium zone, my bearish bias targets the **1.09076** and eventually **1.04172** levels. 🔍 *Conclusion:* While the euro may show short-term strength, this is likely a setup to trap buyers before a deeper decline. I will be monitoring for confirmations of rejection and signs of trend continuation beyond the liquidity grab. 📍Posted by: *Emerson Massawe* *Data & Market Analyst | COO of Rodaviva | Xerof Capital*
by Lordemerson
Headwinds for EURUSD as trade tension declinesEuro-dollar retreated further on 1 May in thin trading to retest $1.13. Trade wars are less in focus now with the rising possibility of deals between the USA and India, Japan and South Korea among others. Although American advance GDP for the first quarter was disappointing at negative 0.3%, the generally positive reaction by the dollar might suggest positive sentiment and that participants had been expecting a worse result. Flash GDP for the eurozone was better than expected on 30 April. $1.13 remains an important technical reference. A break clearly below there might open the way to $1.11 and possibly lower in the medium term, especially if sentiment and the American job report support. Conversely, a bounce from here would probably mean a retest of the latest highs around $1.156 sooner or later. Overall, euro-dollar’s performance since the end of February has been very strong, so it’d be possible to see the price consolidating for a while before making clear new highs if the uptrend does indeed continue. Apart from 2 May’s NFP, next week’s press conference from the Fed is critical. This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
by Michael_Stark_Exness