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EURUSD trade ideas

#AN001: Geopolitical Situations and Forex Impact Hi, I'm Forex Trader Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about how the recent geopolitical turmoil is impacting global currency markets. In this week of May 2025, significant events are shaking up the global economic and political balance, with direct repercussions on Forex. Geopolitical Overview: Rising Tensions India-Pakistan Crisis Following the terrorist attack in Pahalgam on April 22, which left 25 Indian tourists dead, relations between India and Pakistan deteriorated rapidly. Artillery exchanges along the Line of Control, diplomatic expulsions and the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty characterized the following weeks. Although a ceasefire was reached on May 10, the situation remains volatile, with significant impacts on air traffic and regional trade routes. Wikipedia Iran-US Nuclear Stalemate The nuclear talks between Iran and the United States are at a standstill. Tehran refuses to stop enriching uranium and negotiate on its missile program, while Washington insists on these conditions. Iran, under economic pressure from sanctions, may seek support from China and Russia, although these allies face their own geopolitical challenges. Reuters "Golden Dome" and US Trade Policies President Donald Trump has announced the "Golden Dome" project, a $175 billion missile defense system inspired by Israel's Iron Dome. Meanwhile, protectionist US trade policies are generating uncertainty in global markets, with the European Union proposing a "Buy European" strategy to strengthen the bloc's economic autonomy. The Times of India Financial Times FX Impacts: Currency Market Analysis EUR/USD: Downside Pressure The euro is under pressure due to trade tensions with the US and domestic economic uncertainties. Proposals to reform public procurement and European defense initiatives could affect investor sentiment. The ECB has highlighted risks to financial stability arising from these tensions. USD/JPY: Yen Safe Haven Amid global uncertainty, the Japanese yen is strengthening as a safe haven currency. Tensions in the Middle East and US policies are pushing investors towards safer assets, supporting the yen’s appreciation. GBP/USD: Towards a New UK-EU Relationship The UK, under Prime Minister Keir Starmer, is seeking to re-establish closer relations with the European Union, without rejoining the bloc. This pragmatic strategy could reduce economic uncertainty and positively impact sterling in the medium term. USD/CAD: Influence of Oil Prices The Canadian dollar is affected by fluctuations in oil prices, influenced by uncertainties in the Iran-US negotiations and tensions in Ukraine. Canada's dependence on energy exports makes the CAD sensitive to these developments.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
EURUSD H4 | Bullish Reversal Based on the H4 chart analysis, the price is approaching our buy entry level at 1.2265, a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Our take profit is set at 1.1426, an overlap resistance. The stop loss is placed at 1.1193, a pullback resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by Tradu
EURUSD Trade Plan – Two Possible ScenariosPrice is currently consolidating below resistance at 1.1345. ✅ Scenario 1: Breakout Continuation If price breaks and closes above 1.1345 with strong bullish momentum, I will look for a breakout buy with targets toward 1.1375–1.1400. ✅ Scenario 2: Deeper Pullback to Buy If price rejects 1.1345 and pulls back toward the 1.1300–1.1310 support zone (confluence with EMA zone), I’ll wait for bullish confirmation to enter long. ❌ If price breaks below 1.1300, I’ll wait and reassess the structure. Trend remains bullish. Focus only on long setups for now.
Long
by dannyrahadian
EURUSD Bearish Setup📌 Market Structure & Setup Summary Major Supply Zone Rejection (Red Zone at Top): Price tapped into higher timeframe supply zone at 1.13755 (red box). This was a buy-side liquidity grab just above the previous high → textbook distribution zone. Now price is respecting that zone and rejecting it with bearish momentum. Bearish Rising Channel Broken: Red trendlines show a rising wedge → often leads to a bearish breakout. Price is currently breaking out of that wedge to the downside. Premium Pricing Confirmed: Price was pushed into the premium zone (above equilibrium), inducing buy orders → now being reversed. 🔄 Trade Plan (Short Bias) ✅ Entry: Activated inside the red supply zone after confirming wick rejections and structure shift. 🛑 Stop Loss: Above the red supply zone (above 1.13755). 🎯 Targets: TP1 → 1.12545: Structure support and breaker block. TP2 → 1.11663: Previous demand zone and trendline intersection. TP3 (Optional) → 1.11002 – 1.10610: External liquidity + trendline + FVG zone. 📉 RR Ratio: Estimated 1:4 to 1:5+ if TP2/TP3 hits. ⚠️ Key Confluences 🔹 Bearish break of rising wedge = structural shift. 🔹 Rejection wick inside red supply + BOS. 🔹 TP zones aligned with previous OB, breaker blocks, and liquidity pools. 🔹 News/volatility likely during the double blue vertical lines, so expect reaction spikes. 🚫 Invalidation Criteria If price closes above 1.13755, the idea is invalid. Watch for manipulation or false breakouts during high-impact news. 🔮 Market Forecast If current rejection holds, expecting price to seek sell-side liquidity from 1.12545, then 1.11663, and possibly lower. This is a classic distribution > BOS > retrace > expansion sequence.
Short
by Delast2
1
Bearish reversal?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support. Pivot: 1.1424 1st Support: 1.1263 1st Resistance: 1.1557 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
Bullish bounce off overlap support?EUR/USD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.1267 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 1.1140 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 71% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 1.1425 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 71% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
EURUSD Shows Signs of Reversal as Momentum Shifts HigherThe EURUSD is beginning to show signs of a reversal as momentum shifts and moves above its 10-day exponential moving average. The EURUSD has recently experienced a significant move since early February, rising to a high of 1.147, which resulted in it becoming overbought, touching its upper Bollinger band, and pushing the RSI above 70. Now, after a brief pullback, the EURUSD appears poised to make another push higher. The EURUSD has now moved above its 10-day exponential moving average and its 20-day simple moving average. Additionally, it appears to have broken above a minor downtrend that began on 28 April. If this momentum continues, EURUSD could rise back towards resistance at the upper Bollinger band, around 1.145, and perhaps even retest the 1.157 peak seen on 21 April. Perhaps more importantly, a short-term trend reversal is underway, with the Relative Strength Index breaking above a short-term downtrend that started on 21 April. If this trend break holds, it would indicate that the recent decline in EURUSD has likely ended, setting the stage for another move higher. Also supporting a potential rebound and move higher is the successful bounce of EURUSD off its 38.2% retracement level, measured from the lows established on 3 February to the highs of 21 April. Combined with the factors mentioned earlier, this suggests the next move for EURUSD is likely upwards. However, if support fails to hold and EURUSD falls below 1.105, it could decline further towards the next support at 1.075, which corresponds to the 61.8% retracement level from the 3 February lows. Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management. Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
by cmcmarkets
EURUSD – CME Gap and 0.786 Fib Align at Key Demand ZoneEURUSD has been trading with a strong bullish tone recently, breaking through previous resistance levels with conviction. However, after the latest impulse move to the upside, the market is now showing signs of exhaustion. Price has begun to pull back in a controlled manner, creating a potential opportunity for a deeper retracement into a more favorable area of interest. This kind of pullback is typical after an aggressive rally, and right now, there’s clear evidence that price may need to revisit lower levels before any further continuation higher. Technical Confluence at Its Best: Below the current range, there is a high-probability demand zone that combines three powerful elements: a well-respected historical support area, a CME gap that was left unfilled during the previous rally, and a 0.786 Fibonacci retracement from the latest bullish leg. These levels don’t just sit close to each other, they stack right on top of one another, forming a dense pocket of liquidity and technical confluence. The market often gravitates toward these types of zones to rebalance price and fuel the next directional move. Short-Term Bearish Setup – Let Price Come to You: The expectation is for price to dip lower in the short term. This would allow the market to tap into the unfilled CME gap and sweep the liquidity resting below the current structure. Traders who went long late in the move are likely to have their stops sitting just beneath recent lows, and this sets the stage for a classic inducement and stop hunt scenario. Price doesn't need to collapse, just a healthy retracement into this confluence zone to rebalance and refill the inefficiency before the real move begins. Bullish Reversal Expectations: Once price fills the CME gap and reaches into the 0.786 Fib retracement level, the focus shifts back to bullish. If the market holds this support cleanly and shows early signs of strength, like a displacement back above short-term structure or a strong engulfing candle, this could signal the beginning of a new upward leg. Given the context and momentum from the previous rally, it’s reasonable to anticipate a strong reaction that could drive price back toward the recent highs or potentially even higher. The Psychology Behind the Setup: This type of setup is a textbook example of how smart money operates. Price leaves a gap, traders pile in on the breakout, and then the market retraces to fill the imbalance and shake out weak hands before resuming the trend. Understanding the logic behind the CME gap, the liquidity below price, and how the Fib level ties everything together gives this setup depth. It’s not just about lines and zones, it’s about how liquidity flows through the market and how structure sets up to trap and reward. Conclusion: Patience is key. Rather than chasing the bullish momentum at current levels, the plan is to wait for price to revisit the zone where the CME gap, historical support, and the 0.786 Fib level align. That’s where the real value lies. If the reaction from this zone is clean and confirms strength, it offers a high-probability entry for the next leg up. No need to force anything, let the market come to you, then execute with precision. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
Long
by TehThomas
47
From a short-term perspective, the bullish trend is expected to The EUR/USD exchange rate continued its upward momentum during the European session and is currently trading near 1.1320. As the US Dollar Index remains under pressure, the EUR/USD rate has gradually climbed. Market sentiment tends to seek alternatives to the US dollar and optimistic expectations of a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. The euro has performed strongly recently, mainly benefiting from two factors: the market's search for US dollar alternatives and optimistic expectations that the Russia-Ukraine conflict may reach a ceasefire agreement. According to Francesco Pesole, a foreign exchange analyst at ING, the overall European currencies have shown good momentum, with the Swiss franc and Swedish krona ranking among the top in the G10 currency list this week. This reflects that the market is (on one hand) seeking alternatives to the US dollar (Swiss franc), and (on the other hand) may be optimistic about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement (Swedish krona, Norwegian krona). EUR/USD may continue to test the resistance range of 1.1410-1.1460. If US political uncertainty intensifies or economic data weakens, a breakthrough cannot be ruled out. However, positive US dollar news that may emerge at the G7 summit in Canada may limit the upside of EUR/USD before the end of this week. In the market, there are no absolutes, and neither upward nor downward trends are set in stone. Therefore, the ability to judge the balance between market gains and losses is your key to success. Let money become our loyal servant.
Long
by Ashbur
EUR/USD Dual BUY LIMIT Strategy – Intraday + Swing Setup💬 Description: This idea is based on a bullish structure confirmed across multiple timeframes (5m, 15m, 30m, 1H, 4H, Daily). The market shows strong buying pressure supported by clear technical signals: 🧠 Technical Justification: Ichimoku Cloud: Price is clearly trading above the Kumo in all major timeframes, with bullish Tenkan/Kijun crossovers and strong Chikou Span alignment. VWAP: Price remains consistently above VWAP, confirming intraday bullish control. Moving Averages: All MAs (MA5 to MA200) are aligned in a bullish direction across 1H to Daily charts. Momentum Indicators: RSI remains between 58–69: bullish but not yet overbought. MACD positive across all major TFs. CCI above 100 on 1H and H4: indicates strong price momentum. Pivot Points: Price action is holding above daily pivot and testing resistance zones (R1-R2), showing strength without overextension. Conclusion: This setup reflects a technically healthy bullish trend with multiple layers of confluence. There’s a strong probability of continuation to upper resistance levels, especially if price maintains structure above the VWAP and Ichimoku cloud. Perfect scenario for both intraday and short swing setups with favorable risk/reward potential.
Long
by cdsolta
1
Why I think EURUSD will sell this week...Technical AnalysisHey Rich Friends, Happy Monday! I wanted to share my analysis on EURUSD and why I think it will sell. This is only a technical analysis so please check the news and cross-reference your own charts. Here is what I am looking at: - Momentum has picked up for the sellers after the swing high was hit. This means a downtrend has started and is picking up. - The market structure was broken on the downside on M15 and H1. There was a retest and previous support became resistance. - The stoch is facing down, both lines have crossed below 80, slow line (orange) is above the fast line (blue) which is a bearish confirmation for me. Additional information: - I will wait for both lines of the stoch to cross below 50 to confirm the down trend. - I will use previous highs as my SL and previous lows as my TPs. Good luck if you decide to take this trade, let me know how it goes. Peace and Profits, Cha
Short
by MoneyMantraCha
Encounter Resistance And Reverse Direction Educational Forex Trading Insight – EUR/USD Potential Bearish Scenario This content is intended for educational purposes only and aims to help traders understand how a possible sell setup in the EUR/USD currency pair might be analyzed. It is not a signal or financial advice, but rather a breakdown of a potential market scenario based on technical observations. --- Currency Pair: EUR/USD Market Outlook: Bearish (Short Position Scenario) Suggested Sell Zone: A possible area of interest for initiating a short position lies between 1.13430 and 1.13520, where the price may encounter resistance and reverse direction. This zone could offer a favorable risk-to-reward setup for experienced traders identifying signs of bearish confirmation. Risk Management – Stop Loss: A stop-loss order should be placed based on your personal trading strategy and risk tolerance. It is generally advisable to position it above the resistance area to account for potential volatility or fake breakouts. Potential Price Targets: First Target (TP1): 1.13159 – Near-term support level Second Target (TP2): 1.12970 – Deeper retracement zone Third Target (TP3): 1.12800 – Stronger historical support Additional downside may develop if bearish momentum continues beyond these levels --- Important Notice: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions. Proper risk management and discipline are essential for long-term success in the markets.
Short
by Peter_Wade
1