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EURUSD trade ideas

EUR/USD: Between Rebound Hopes and Tariff TensionsThe EUR/USD pair experienced a strong rebound on Tuesday, rising by 0.8% and breaking a six-day losing streak, although it failed to reclaim the 1.0400 threshold. Despite this recovery, bullish momentum remains fragile as the euro is heavily influenced by broader market flows and the anticipation of upcoming US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data. The pair found initial support at the weekly low of 1.0209 on February 3, with a potential decline towards the 2025 bottom of 1.0176 if this support fails. A break below this level could pave the way for a test of the psychological parity threshold. On the upside, resistance is identified at 1.0532, the year’s high recorded on January 27. The pair’s recovery was driven by a weakening US dollar, as the Dollar Index (DXY) fell below the 108.00 support, influenced by market reactions to President Donald Trump’s plans to delay a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods while maintaining a 10% levy on Chinese imports. Although the US dollar has weakened, the tariff issue is expected to strengthen its position in the long term, potentially supporting a bullish outlook for the currency. Central banks also play a crucial role: the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged last week, signaling a cautious approach amid strong economic growth, persistent inflation, and low unemployment. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates by 25 basis points, hinting at possible further easing while expressing optimism about controlling eurozone inflation. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized a data-driven approach, ruling out the possibility of aggressive rate cuts. Trade tensions, particularly those linked to US tariffs, could further complicate the euro’s outlook. Prolonged tariffs could fuel inflation in the United States, prompting the Fed to adopt a more hawkish stance, which could strengthen the dollar and put pressure on the euro, potentially pushing the EUR/USD pair toward parity. Looking ahead, the euro faces challenges from the resilience of the US dollar, divergent monetary policies between the ECB and the Fed, and structural issues within the eurozone, such as Germany’s economic slowdown. While short-term rallies are possible, the overall outlook for the euro remains uncertain, with persistent risks related to geopolitical tensions and tariff policies likely to shape the pair’s trajectory.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Daily / H4 CLS, Order Block Midpoints, Model 1 Daily / H4 CLS, OB Mid, Model 1. Im open to react to the H4 CLS and the Daily CLS once the setups occur at the moment. It's not 100% clear setup. So, we need to wait a bit for the manipulations. Don't hesitate to comment with your thoughts and share your charts or questions below, I like any constructive discussion. What is CLS? is the smart money of all markets. This company aggregates capital from the biggest investment banks and central banks. Its daily volume is over 6.5 trillion. CLS operates in specific modes and times. By understanding their models, we get an unfair advantage against others with fantastic precision for your entries and mechanical definition of the targets. Follow me and pay attention to my model 1 and 2. It's the key to the markets. None of the strategies of the world has a 100%-win rate and I'm just a human. We make big profits, but sometimes we can miss something or make mistakes. Good luck and I hope this educational post helps you to become a better trader “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.” Dave Hunter ⚔
by David_Perk
4
EURUSD Trading JournalEURUSD Trading Journal Feb 5 Prices wild action on Sunday was rebalanced on Monday and yesterdays delivery seeking the inefficiencies, and equal highs. I really liked how I suggested that price would seek the 50 level yesterday, great delivery and note how reactive price was on the 50 during NY springing off it to launch, indication that seasonal shift here with price coming back up to the 50 on HTF and could be tipping its hand that we are bullish? Need more info before I can commit to that notion. Price is in a discount on the W, however the daily range and previous range is in a premium. There is a key buys stops that if they are hit and price declines we could see price seek lower prices to balance FVG and the 50 level and that will be telling what reaction we get at that level-1.03223 London could sideways in a consolidation pattern until the fireworks in NY. That said its non farm payroll this week starting today, next couple days to watch and not be foolish. If my model does line up with key liquidity and a clear target perhaps I will trade.
by LeanLena
EURUSD H1 | Bearish Drop Based on the H1 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 1.03789, which aligns with a key resistance zone and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This level is expected to act as a potential reversal point in the bearish setup. Our take profit is set at 1.03435, near a previous support zone, where price may find buying interest. The stop loss is placed at 1.04040, above the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, providing room for price fluctuations while ensuring the bearish setup remains valid. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
EURUSD 5 Feb 2025 W6 - Intraday Analysis - EU PPI - US ADP/PMIThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 5 Feb 2025 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Investors remain cautious but are gradually finding footing after recent bouts of volatility linked to aggressive trade measures and policy uncertainty. The sentiment can best be described as a mix of risk aversion amid global trade tensions and a tentative willingness to engage as economic data remains broadly resilient. The U.S. dollar has experienced modest strength but remains under pressure due to the broader uncertainty in trade dynamics and the potential for escalating tariffs, particularly from ongoing actions against major trade partners even with pause of tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The target is Europe. Federal Reserve Outlook: While the recent policy stance has been one of a pause, the Fed is expected to continue monitoring inflationary trends closely. Any future adjustments to monetary policy are likely to be data-dependent, with the current sentiment suggesting that policymakers will remain cautious amid trade-induced uncertainties. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the Bearish iBOS, price confirmed the Swing pullback phase. 🔹We reached the Swing extreme demand which triggered a V-shape reaction indicating the bullish continuation. 🔹Price is currently targeting the liquidity (CHoCH) at 1.04342 (15m Swing High). 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to continue Bullish for the Bullish 4H Swing Continuation after reaching the Swing Extreme Demand. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Swing Pullback 2️⃣ 🔹Swing turned bearish signaling the 4H/Daily bearish continuation. 🔹After a BOS we expect a Pullback, price pulled back with series of Bullish INT structures reaching the 4H Supply and the 15m Swing extreme. 🔹While the 4H Swing Structure is Bullish, 15m Swing still Bearish. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to continue bullish to sweep the 4H liquidity (Forming a Bullish
by Amr-Sadek
“Waiting for 30M CHoch flip to Confirm Bullish bias”“Waiting for 30M CHoCH Flip to Confirm Bullish Bias” I’m closely monitoring EUR/USD on the 30-minute timeframe. The price is sitting in a 4H demand zone/order block, and I’m waiting for a clear CHoCH (Change of Character) on the 30-minute chart to confirm bullish intent. For a broader view, I’ve posted the 4H chart in my latest post, showing the demand zone and its significance to this setup. Key Levels: • 4H Demand Zone: Strong area of interest for bullish setups. • Next Steps: Wait for CHoCH confirmation and refine the entry. Patience is key in setups like these. Let’s see how this plays out! Bless Trading!
Long
by Juicemannn
EURUSD - Long Term Target📉📉 EURUSD Long-Term Bearish Outlook 📉 🔍 Analysis: The EURUSD pair is currently showing signs of a long-term bearish bias. Our primary target is set at 0.8750, but please keep in mind that this may take a considerable amount of time to unfold. We will closely monitor price action on the highlighted zones for potential entry and exit opportunities. 📊 Timeframes: To understand the broader trend, we are primarily focusing on the weekly and monthly charts. These timeframes provide us with the most indicative signals of the market's direction. 📈 Fibonacci Level: The EURUSD pair recently reached the 618 Fibonacci retracement zone on the weekly chart, which marked a significant turning point. We already see selling coming in. This reinforces our bearish bias, suggesting that downward pressure is mounting. It's truly fascinating how the weekly chart has validated our bearish perspective. We'll patiently monitor the market as it unfolds, keeping our sights on the 0.8750 target. Trading with caution and discipline is essential in this scenario. Stay tuned for updates as the story develops. 📉📊🔍 #EURUSD #BearishBias #LongTermTrade
Short
by TickmanX
EURUSD: 4H Bullish Cross not so bullish historically.EURUSD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 49.247, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 21.205) and just formed a 4H Bullish Cross between the 1D MA100 and 1D MA200. This hasn't had a bullish effect in the past 12 months as the two times we saw it in 2024, it immediatelly market the top of the short term trend and caused pull backs to at least the 0.618 Fibonacci level. Consequently we will use it as an instant sell signal (TP = 1.02625). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
EUR/USD Weekly OutlookMontly dolar chart reacted to the 0.7 FIBO and finish with Long legged Doji candle This week DXY again shows bullish strenght The dollar reacted to the weekly buy zone, previously the structure on the daily chart started to change to sell. Waiting price to retest previous supply zone and give confirmation on daily chart that price will continue lower. On EUR/USD the situation is reversed, on Friday the price closed H4 with bearish engulfing and It looks like it is ready to continue falling to the zones marked below, the daily fvg, and the lower extreme demand zone. If the price will move according to this scenario, I predict a drop in the first part of the week and a turn with the NFP news on Friday. Of course, this is just an idea and a scenario that, if valid with good confirmations on the daily/h4 chart, can bring good opportunities for trading.
by MarioM113
EURUSD Elliott Wave: Gap is GoneExecutive Summary: EUR/USD weekend gap down has been fully retraced The Elliott wave trend has shifted from down to up Initial upside targets include 1.08 & 1.12 EUR/USD Gaps Down on Trump Tariff Announcement Over the weekend, announcements of tariffs in place by President Trump caused EUR/USD to gap lower on broad based USD strength. It was approximately a 130 pip gap which is large for forex. This gap has been fully retraced and covered providing evidence it was an exhaustion gap. EUR/USD Elliott Wave Analysis EUR/USD has been trending lower since September 2024, covering a range of nearly 1000 pips. Our review of the technical charts using Elliott wave analysis shows that a major low may be in place and a large rally is underway. Our view is that the decline from September 2024 is an ending diagonal wave C of (2). In the chart above, the ending diagonal is colored in blue. As the name implies, an ending diagonal is an ending pattern of a larger wave sequence. In this case, it ‘ends’ the pattern that began January 2023 as a large sideways flat. The low on January 13 at 1.0177 appears to be the end of the two year suggesting the next rally could unfold over months and possibly years. One common feature of the ending diagonal is that the next wave tends to be a swift retracement. This implies a large and swift rally is underway to target the origin of the diagonal (1.1214). This new bullish trend wave (3) is early in development. The gap down this weekend merely retested the topside of the blue ((ii))-((iv)) trend line of the ending diagonal. This trend line provided a springboard for wave (iii) of 1 of (3) to kick off to the upside. Initial targets for wave (iii) is 1.08 and possibly 1.12. If the EURUSD price unexpectedly falls below 1.0177, then we’ll need to reconsider the larger wave count. For the time being, several Elliott wave models point to further gains above 1.05 with 1.08 serving as an initial target zone. Key Level for Bullish Bias: 1.0177 Initial Target: 1.08 Secondary Target: 1.12
Long
by JWagnerFXTrader